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ifty years after independence, Tanzania has yet to realize the rallying cries of its liberation movement “Uhuru Na Kazi” (freedom and jobs), or to defeat the three scourges of poverty, ignorance, and disease. Though well
intentioned, the efforts of Tanzania’s first president Julius Nyerere to reduce poverty and enhance social welfare failed to sustain economic growth, plunging the country
into prolonged crisis. In the 1980s, Tanzania started liberalizing its economy, and with the collapse of communism in the 1990s, the country instituted a multi-party system. Over the past two decades, Tanzania has seen increased economic growth and political openings, but high levels of poverty, corruption, and limited state capacity still pose critical challenges to inclusive development and democratic consolidation.
The writing of a new constitution now presents Tanzania with a fresh opportunity to build a foundation for achieving its independence goals of poverty eradication and political freedom. Tanzanians can make progress by: (1) forging alliances with domestic democratic forces; (2) exploiting the intense power struggle within the ruling party; and (3) taking advantage of the incumbent president’s interest in a democratic legacy. Through political will and popular participation, the country can effectively address its challenges and emerge as a true African success story.
—Ibrahim Lipumba, December 9, 2011
“F
”
D r . I b r a h i m L i p u m b a
R e a g a n - F a s c e l l D e m o c r a c y F e l l o wN a t i o n a l E n d o w m e n t f o r D e m o c r a c y
F r i d a y , D e c e m b e r 9 , 2 0 1 1
FROM UJAMAA TO DEMOKRASIA: REFLECTING on 50 YEARS of
INDEPENDENCE in TANZANIA and the WAY FORWARD
The views expressed in this presentation represent the opinions and analysis of the speakerand do not necessarily reflect those of the National Endowment for Democracy or its staff.
PRESENTATION OUTLINE
I. Historical Background
II. Towards Ujamaa: Mwalimu Julius Nyerere (1962–1985)
III. Economic Crisis, Reform and Democratization
President Ali Hassan Mwinyi (1985–1995)
President Benjamin Mkapa (1995–2005)
President Jakaya Kikwete (2005–present)
IV. Consolidating Democracy and Development in Tanzania
3
I. HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
German colony (1885–1918)
British Protectorate (1919–1961)
Nationalist Movement for Independence (1954–1961)
Tanganyika African National Union (TANU)
Democracy and Self-determination
Fighting the three scourges of ignorance, ill health, and poverty
Nationalist Motto – UHURU NA KAZI (Freedom and Jobs)
4
I. RAPID MOVEMENT FROM SELF-RULE TO COMPLETE INDEPENDENCE
5
Nyerere on arrival from London Independence Conference, 1960
Nyerere Sworn in as Tanganyika Chief Minister, 1959
Multi-party Westminster-style democracy dominated by TANU
126 ethnic groups with Kiswahili as the lingua franca
Two major religious groups – Muslims and Christians
Christian missionary schools dominated formal education
6
I. SOCIO-POLITICAL CONDITIONS AT INDEPENDENCE
Nyerere on Independence Day December 9, 1961
I. ECONOMIC INHERITANCE AT INDEPENDENCE
Dual economy Small modern sector and large subsistence peasant agriculture
Commerce dominated by Indian businesses Low levels of education and poor health services
East African Common Service Organization (Kenya, Tanganyika, Zanzibar, and Uganda)
Managed railways, ports, aviation, post and telecommunication, and income and customs duty
East African Common Currency Area East African Federation – political objective
7
I. UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT AT AN EAST AFRICAN FEDERATION
From left to right: President Kaunda of Zambia, President Nyerere of Tanzania, President Kenyatta of Kenya, and Premier of Uganda Obote, 1964 © Bettmann/CORBIS
8
1964–1977: TANU rules over Tanzania mainland and Afro-Shirazi Party (ASP) rules in Zanzibar
1977: Union of TANU and ASP, leading to the formation of the current ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM)
9
Julius Nyerere and Vice President AA Karume on Union Day, April 26, 1964
I. UNION OF TANGANYIKA AND ZANZIBAR (1964)
II. JULIUS NYERERE PRIOR TO UJAMAA (socialism)
Nyerere rules from 1961–85
Initially:
Moderate political leader (compared to Ghana’s Nkrumah)
Promotes a market-based economy
Seeks Foreign Direct Investment
TO UJAMAA (socialism)
10
From left to right: Sectary of State Dean Rusk, Julius Nyerere, and President J.F. Kennedy (1963)
© Getty Images
II. ARUSHA DECLARATION– UJAMAA in PRACTICE
1962: Ujamaa as state of mindo 1965: TANU one-party system 1967: Nationalization 1967–1973: Ujamaa villagesestablished 1971: Buildings Acquisition Act 1973–1975: Forced Villagization 1975: Basic Industrializationstrategy Nyerere meets with Chairman Mao,
1965
10
II. POLICY OBJECTIVES UNDER UJAMAA Poverty reduction and
equity through collective work Universal primary education Increased access to basic health services and clean water
Self-reliance and less dependence on aid
“Leadership Code” for politicians and civil servants Nyerere at a March hailing the Arusha
Declaration, 1967
11
II. SOCIO-ECONOMIC SETBACKS
Overall poor economic performance Low GDP growth with decline in agricultural productivity
Large budget deficit
High inflation and overvalued exchange rate
Emergence of parallel markets
Unsustainable external debt
Aid dependence
Lack of structural transformation Peasant agriculture main source of employment
Low level of industrialization
Private sector and entrepreneurship discouraged
13
II. REAL PER CAPITA INCOME (1960–1985)
14
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
In 2005 PPP $
II. GROSS SCHOOL ENROLLMENT RATE (1970–1985)
15
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
Primary
Secondary
%
II. CHILD MORTALITY RATE (1960–1985)
16
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Under 5 deaths per 1000
II. POLITICAL SETBACKS
17
One-party authoritarian state Freedom House Classification: Not Free (1972–1994) Human Rights abuses during forced villagization
Lack of vibrant civil society Weak administrative capacity
Civil service, police and military linked to the ruling party (CCM)
II. POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENTNational Unity and Defeat of Idi Amin (Uganda)
18
Julius Nyerere meets with Idi Amin, 1974
Julius Nyerere celebrates after Kagera war victory, 1979
II. POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT Support for Liberation Movements in Southern Africa
19
President of Mozambique Samora Machel and Julius Nyerere of
Tanzania, 1975
Nelson Mandela, Julius Nyerere, and Winnie Mandela in Tanzania,
1990
II. POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT Tanzania Punches Above its Weight in International Affairs
20
Nyerere on March 1964 Cover of Time magazine
Nyerere with Indian PM Indira Gandhi, 1982
Nyerere with Indian PM Indira
21
II. POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT Peaceful transfer of power within
one-party dominant state
1985: Nyerere proposes two-term presidential limit
Nyerere steps down andis replaced by Mwinyi
1990: Nyerere steps down fromCCM leadership and callsfor multi-party elections
1995: Mwinyi steps down and isreplaced by Mkapa
2005: Mkapa steps down and isreplaced by Kikwete Nyerere bids farewell before flying to his village
to retire, 1985
party
Nyerere Nyerere N bids farewell before flying to his villvillv age
III. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION PRESIDENT ALI HASSAN MWINYI (1985–1995)
Gradual implementation ofStructural AdjustmentPrograms
Liberalized trade and foreign exchange market
Reintroduction of multi-party system
Yet:
Lack of development vision
High levels of corruption
(1985 1995)
President Mwinyi with Michael Jackson in Tanzania, 1992
21
III. REAL PER CAPITA INCOME (1985–1995)
23
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
In 2005 PPP $
III. GROSS SCHOOL ENROLLMENT RATE (1985–1995)
24
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Primary
Secondary
%
III. CHILD MORTALITY RATE (1985–1995)
25
150
152
154
156
158
160
162
164
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Under-5 deaths per 1000
III. SHAKY TRANSITION TO MULTIPARTY SYSTEM (1992–1995)
26
Political Parties Act (1992) legalizes opposition parties Newly formed opposition parties include:
Civic United Front (CUF)
United Democratic Party (UDP)
Chama cha Demokrasia na
Maendeleo (CHADEMA)
National Convention for Construction and Reform-Mageuzi (NCCR-Mageuzi)
Mwinyi disregards Nyalali Commission’s recommendation for a new constitution
No separation between the state and the ruling party Civil society constrained by state institutions National Election Commission— neither independent nor competent
III. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC REFORMS
Mkapa achieves macroeconomic stability through cash budget and increased aid
Restores government credibility to donors—debt cancellation
Privatizes state enterprises (except public utilities)
Increases foreign direct investment in mineral sector (yet narrow tax revenue for the state)
Increases primary school enrollment
PRESIDENT BENJAMIN MKAPA (1995–2005)
26
III. REAL PER CAPITA INCOME (1995–2005)
28
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
In 2005 PPP $
III. GROSS SCHOOL ENROLLMENT RATE (1985–1995)
29
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Primary
Secondary
%
III. CHILD MORTALITY RATE (1995–2005)
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Under 5 deaths per 1000
III. MKAPA’S “CLEAN” IMAGE TARNISHED
31
Mkapa establishes a private business while president
Government purchases expensive presidential jet
Government purchases BAe Radar for $40 million instead of actual price of $5–8 million
$113 million stolen from the Central Bank in debt conversion scam
Privatization of state property to public officials and CCM leaders below market price
III. SUPPRESSION OF OPPOSITION PARTIES AND VOCAL CRITICS
32
Journalist and activist Jenerali Ulimwengu denied citizenship,
2001–2004
Opposition Party leaders attacked, 2001
Violence against the Opposition
Journalist and activist Jenerali
Revoking Citizenship Rights
III. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION PRESIDENT JAKAYA KIKWETE (2005–present)
Expensive election campaign financed by suspected corrupt sources
Election pledge to “better life for every Tanzanian” yet to be met
Weak and indecisive economic management
International Development Association Country Performance declines from 4th (2005) to 22nd (2010)
32
Cause for Concern
Lack of development vision Leadership vacuum Excessive travel abroad Lip service to fighting corruption Lip service to fighting corruption
34
Positive Gains
Strengthens parliamentary power Accepts resignation of corrupt PM Increases freedom of the press Accepts demand for new constitution
III. PRESIDENT KIKWETE (2005–present)
Accepts demand for new constitution
Chinese leader Hu Jintao, President Kikwete, and Dr. Lipumba, 2008
President Kikwete meets with British PM Gordon Brown, 2008
III. REAL PER CAPITA INCOME (1960–2009)
35
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
In 2005 PPP $
III. CHILD MORTALITY RATE (1960–2010)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
19
60
19
61
19
62
19
63
19
64
19
65
19
66
19
67
19
68
19
69
19
70
19
71
19
72
19
73
19
74
19
75
19
76
19
77
19
78
19
79
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
36
Under-5 deaths per 1,000
III. GROSS PRIMARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOL
ENROLLMENT RATE
37
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
197
0
197
1
197
2
197
3
197
4
197
5
197
6
197
7
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Primary
Secondary
%
IV. POVERTY: A SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGE
38
Poverty Indices 1992 2000 2007
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) % 72.6 88.5 67.9
Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line % 38.6 35.6 33.4
GINI index (Measure of Inequality) 33.8 34.6 37.6
IV. TANZANIA’S DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Coastal country surrounded by six land-locked countries Vast agricultural potential
Only 9.6 million hectors utilized out of 35 million hectors
Tourist attractions
National parks, Mt. Kilimanjaro, beautiful beaches
Mineral resources Gold, diamonds, gemstone, nickel, natural gas, coal, iron-ore, and uranium
Population dividend
Convergence opportunities
39
40IV. TANZANIA’S CURRENT DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Poverty
Corruption
Limited statecapacity
Low levels of humancapital
High populationgrowth
Low agriculturalproduction
Poor infrastructureDebilitated Infrastructure Debilitated Infrastructure
IV. STRATEGIES FOR INCLUSIVE EQUITABLE DEVELOPMENT
Macroeconomic stability Conducive business environment Infrastructure development Structural transformation
Agriculture
Greenfield Special Economic Zones for manufacturing
Effectively exploiting natural resource wealth
Investing in human resource development
Taking advantage of information communication technology in education, health services, etc.
41
IV. TANZANIA’S DEMOCRACY AT A CROSSROADS
Democratic retrenchment can have dire consequences (e.g. Kenya and Ivory Coast)
President Kikwete is completing his last term in office. What will
be the President’s democratic legacy? Intense power struggle within CCM may promote democratization
if properly exploited President Kikwete has accepted the writing of a new constitution With political will, Tanzania can emerge as a democratic and
development-oriented state in Africa
42
IV. INSTITUTIONS FOR DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Competent and Independent National Electoral Commission Competent and Independent Judiciary Vibrant Civil Society A Professional Civil Service Comptroller and Auditor General Anti-Corruption Bureau Revenue Authority Effective Public Expenditure system
43
IV. CONSOLIDATING DEMOCRACY AND DEVELOPMENT
I. Establish strong governance institutions and open space for civil society through proposed constitutional review process
II. Take advantage of incumbent president’s last term and his interest in international recognition as a democratic leader
III. Forge alliances with democratic forces, including all serious political parties and factions within the ruling party and demand an independent and competent electoral body
IV. Propagate inclusive policies concerning poverty reduction and economic development
V. Build a national constituency committed to the promotion of equitable growth
44
Prof. Ibrahim Haruna Lipumba
THANK YOU
Prof. Ibrahim Haruna Lipumba
THANK YOU
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