5. Pengambilan Risiko Risk Taking · PDF file–Risiko dan Pengambilan keputusan bisnis...

5. Pengambilan Risiko(Risk Taking)

Tujuan Pembelajaran

• Menjelaskan konsep resiko

• Menjelaskan bagaimana pengambilan resiko dilakukan

• Mengidentifikasi resiko-resiko yang potensial terjadi ketika memulai usaha

• Menjelaskan pengelolaan resiko

Pengantar

Entrepreneur : BERANI MENGHADAPI RESIKO, CELAAN, PENGEKANGAN, BAHKAN PENGACUHAN

Entrepreneur menurut David McClelland

• Memiliki kecenderungan mengambilrisiko yg moderat (risiko yang terhitungatau calculated risk).

• mempunyai persepsi mengenai kemungkinan mencapai keberhasilan

Landau's classification ofentrepreneurial types

Typology of Entrepreneurial Styles

Source: Thomas Monroy and Robert Folger, “A Typology of Entrepreneurial Styles: Beyond Economic Rationality,” Journal of Private Enterprise IX(2) (1993): 71.

The Level Of Entrepreneur

Little

Risk

Medium

Risk

Taker

Risk

Manager

Risk

Taker

Very Risk

Manager

Risk Free

Unemployee Employee Self

Employee (self Business)

Businessman (business

owner system)

Investor Gambler (Speculative)

0 1 2 3 4 5

Entrepreneurship Theory

• Entrepreneurs cause entrepreneurship.– Entrepreneurship is a function of the

entrepreneur:

– Entrepreneurship is the interaction of skills relatedto inner control, planning and goal setting, risktaking, innovation, reality perception, use offeedback, decision making, human relations, andindependence.

( )E f e

The uncertainty of an event occurring that could have an impact on the achievement of objectives.

WHAT IS RISK?

It is also the probability ofsomething you do not wantto happen,

happening.

Pengertian Resiko• Definisi Resiko

– Ketidakpastian (uncertainty)– Konsekuensi yang memunculkan dampak yang merugikan– Risiko dan Pengambilan keputusan bisnis– Hubungan antara: Risk - Risiko – Rizki – Rejeki

• Sesuatu yang buruk (tidak diinginkan), baik yang sudah diperhitungkanmaupun yang belum diperhitungkan, yang merupakan suatu akibat darisuatu tindakan atau kegiatan

• Motivasi mengambil resiko– Menginginkan pengembalian yang sepadan (return)

• mampu mengkalkulasi risiko– Kepepet

• tidak mampu mengkalkulasi risiko, atau• tidak tahu risiko yang dihadapi

EXAMPLES OF RISK

risk of injury to staff and clients

risk of buildings being vandalised

risk of harm to authorised and unauthorised visitors

risk of contracting communicable diseases

risk of theft

EXAMPLES OF RISK

risk of fraud

risk of storm and/or water damage

risk of poorly drafted contracts

risk of assault

risk of bad personnel appointments

risk of adverse publicity

risk of loss of computer data.

Jenis-jenis Risiko Dalam Bisnis

– Risiko Murni• Risiko hilang/rusaknya aset yang dimiliki• Risiko Kecelakaan kerja• Risiko akibat tuntutan hukum• Risiko operasional lainnya• Bencana alam (force majure)

– Risiko spekulatif• Risiko Perubahan Harga

– Perubahan harga input– Perubahan harga output

• Risiko Kredit

Kriteria Resiko

• Resiko TinggiKeberhasilannya sangat kecil dibanding kegagalannya (sering gagal)

• Resiko RendahKeberhasilan lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kegagalannya (sering berhasil)

• Resiko SedangKeberhasilan relatif lebih besar dibandingkan dengan kegagalannya

Bentuk Kerugian Akibat Risiko

– Kerugian Langsung

• Nominal yang harus ditanggung akibat dampak langsung risiko yang terjadi.

– Kerugian Tidak Langsung

• Kemungkinan sales/profit yang gagal diterima

• Munculnya biaya operasional tambahan

• Kesempatan investasi yang hilang

• Kerugian lainnya

The reason people don’t take risks is generallybecause they are not o.k. with the possibilityof failure. We must overcome the fear oflosing everything if we expect to gain more.

This is not to suggest that we should takefoolish risks, but we should never be so fearfulthat we take no risks. One author has statedthat the person who risks, does nothing, hasnothing and is nothing.

Risk Assessment is the systemic process for assessing and integrating professional

judgements about probable adverse

conditions and/or events.

RISK ASSESSMENT

THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS

COMMUNICATE

&

CONSULT

M

O

N

I

T

O

R

&

R

E

V

I

E

W

ESTABLISH THE CONTEXT

IDENTIFY RISKS

ANALYSE RISKS

EVALUATE RISKS

ASSESS RISKS

TREAT RISKS

The risk management process

Step 1 : Establish Your Context

• scope

• organisational

• environmental

• outputs and business objectives

• risk criteria (i.e. threshold levels)

• linkage to other plans

Step 2 : Identify Your Risks

• identify key processes, tasks, activities

• recognise risk areas

• define risks

• categorise risk

Communicate and

consult - at all stepsStep 4 : Evaluate and Prioritise

Your Risks

• identify acceptable/unacceptable

risks (referring risk rating against risk

criteria)

• prioritise risks for treatment

Step 3 : Analyse Your Risks

• identify controls

• determine likelihood

• determine consequence/impact

• rate risks

Step 6 : Monitor and Review Your

Risks

• process

• environment

• organisation

• strategy

• stakeholders

Step 5 : Treat Your RisksAccept/Retain

• based on judgement or

documented

procedures/policy

Avoid

• consider discontinuing or

avoiding activity

• consult

• risk treatment preferable to

risk aversion

Reduce consequence

• contingency planning

• contractual arrangements

• public relations

Transfer

• insurance

• outsourcing

Reduce likelihood

• controls

• process improvement

• training

• Policies and communication

• audit and compliance

Taking a risk: it isn’t all bad

Taking risks is a normal unavoidable

everyday necessity

Taking controlled, informed risks is a sensible

and everyday essential part of life

Taking uninformed, uncontrolled risks

is patently dumb

We take risks not to avoid harm,

but to achieve benefits and gains

Risk taking is positive,

not implicitly negative.

Risk Management is not just the

responsibility of management

Risk Management is everybody’s business

For Risk Management to be effective

it must be implemented

by every person in the organisation

Risk Management must become an integral part of the organisational culture

The risk makers and risk takers must be the

risk managers.

MANAGING RISK

Risk Management is all about maximisingopportunity by managing risk.

We all manage risk consciously or unconsciously - but rarely systematically

Managing risk means forward thinking

Managing risk means responsible thinking

Managing risk means balanced thinking

Risk Management provides a framework to facilitate more effective decision making

Where do risks come from?

• Risk involves uncertainty about the likelihood of events and the value of their consequences.

• Risk arises from interactions between people and their social and physical environment.

• Risk depends not only on physical conditions but also on human actions and decisions.

Identification of Sources of Risk

personnel/human behaviour

management activities and controls

economic circumstances

natural and unnatural events

political circumstances

technology/technical issues

commercial and legal relationships

public/professional/product liability

the activity itself.

1. Strategic Risks

a. Environment Risks

– Natural and man-made disasters

– Political/country

– Laws and regulations

– Industry

– Competitors

– Financial Markets

Risks Categories

b. Organisation Risks– Corporate Objectives and Strategies

– Planning

– Resource Allocation

– Monitoring

– Mergers, acquisitions and divestitures

– Joint Ventures and alliances

– Leadership

– Vision

– Judgement

– Succession Planning

– Tone at the Top

– Management

– Accountability

– Authority

– Responsibility

– Corporate Governance

– Ethics

– Reputation

– Values

– Fraud and illegal acts

– Human Resources

– Performance Rewards

– Benefits

– Workplace environment

– Diversity

2. Operating Risks• Workforce

– Hiring

– Knowledge and skills

– Development and training

– Size

– Safety

• Suppliers– Outsourcing

– Procurement practices

– Availability, price and quality of

suppliers’ products and services

• Physical Plant– Capacity

– Technology/obsolescence

• Protection– Physical plant and other tangible assets– Knowledge and intellectual property

2 Operating Risks (Cont’d)

• Products and Services– Development– Quality– Pricing– Cost– Delivery– Consumer protection– Technology/obsolesence

• Customers– Needs

– Satisfaction

– Credit

• Regulatory Compliance– Employment

– Products and services

– Environmental

– ALL relevant Laws

3. Financial Risks

• Capital/Financing– Availability

– Interest rates

– Creditworthiness

• Investing– Cash availability

– Securities

– Receivables

– Inventories

– Derivatives

• Regulatory Compliance– Security

– Taxation

• Information Risks– Reliability

– Sufficiency

– Protection

– Technology

• Strategic Information– Relevance and accuracy of measurements

– Availability

– Assumptions• Operating Information

– Relevance and accuracy of measurements– Availability– Regulatory Reporting

• Financial Information– Relevance and accuracy of measurements

– Accounting

– Budgets

– Taxation

– Financial Reporting

– Regulatory Reporting

4. Information Risks

HOW DO ENTREPRENEURS MAKE PLANS TO MANAGE RISK????

1. Analyzing current and future economic and market conditions.

2. Considering the consequences of alternative actions

3. Making reasonable decisions in response to conditions as they develop and change.

What to do about the risk

• RISK AVOIDANCE (eliminating the risk)

• RISK REDUCTION (minimizing the risk)

• RISK TRANSFER

• RISK ASSUMPTION

Most entrepreneurs use a combination of methods when controlling and managing risks.

Bagaimana Mengkalkulasi Risiko

– Tentukan seberapa sering risiko tersebut terjadi (frekuensi atau probability).

– Tentukan dampak yang timul dari risiko yang terjadi (dampak).

– Hitung kemungkinan prediksi kerugian, dengan formula:

Frekuensi x Dampak

Contoh– Risiko terjadinya pencurian barang dagangan

– Frekuensi: 1 bulan 5 kali

– Dampak: Dalam setiap kejadian rata-rata kerugian yang ditanggung adalah Rp 300 ribu

– Kemungkinan prediksi kerugian:

5 x 300.000 = 1.500.000

Artinya: Dalam satu bulan terdapat risiko pencurian barang dagangan yg berpotensi menyebabkan kerugian sebesar Rp1,5 juta

Pengelolaan Risiko

– Mulai dari Risiko yang memiliki kemungkinan prediksi kerugian terbesar (prinsip Pareto)

– Pilihan Strategi Pengelolaan:

• Dikontrol, supaya risiko-risiko tidak muncul, misal: SOP, Quality Control.

• Ditransfer kepada pihak lain, misal: konsumen, supplier dan asuransi.

• Dibiayai sendiri, dibuat cadangan dana untuk membiayai jika risiko terjadi.

Tips & Trik Menghadapi risiko

– Perlu difahami bahwa risiko tidak untuk menjadi penghambatuntuk maju. Risiko harus diambil sebagai konsekuensimenginginkan sesuatu yang lebih baik (keberhasilan).

– Identifikasi risiko apa yang berpotensi muncul dalam bisnis.

– Identifikasi seberapa sering risiko tersebut muncul.

– Identifikasi seberapa besar dampak dari risiko yang muncultersebut.

– Siapkan langkah-langkah mitigasi risiko hanya pada risiko yang dominan/prioritas.

is to take no risk

at all!

The greatest risk

of all