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2020 Election Toolbox
A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections
October 8, 2019
Producer National Journal Presentation Center
Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Congressional fundraising
Gubernatorial elections
2016 election
outcome
Clinton EC votes, 222
MN10
PA20
MI16
NC15
FL29
AZ11
GA16
Trump EC votes, 189WI10
3
Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on performance in swing states
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019
2% shift
towards Clinton
in swing states
Clinton EC votes, 222
MN10
PA20
MI16
NC15
FL29
AZ11
GA16
Trump EC votes, 189WI10
4% shift
towards Clinton
in swing states
Clinton EC votes, 222
MN10
PA20
MI16
NC15
FL29
AZ11
GA16
Trump EC votes, 189WI10
*North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018
Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings270 Electoral College votes needed to win
2018 Senate race
outcomes in swing
states
Clinton EC votes, 222
MN10
PA20
MI16
NC*15
FL29
AZ11
GA16
Trump EC votes, 189WI10
4
Key trends to watch in 2020 elections
Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: August 13, 2019
Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox.
Clinton EC votes with Texas, 270MN10
PA20
MI16
NC15
FL29
AZ11
GA16
Trump EC votes w/out Texas, 268WI10
270 Electoral College votes needed to win
TX38
President Trump’s approval rating remains strong in solidly Republican states• In estimates based on 2018 midterm exit polls and results, President Trump received strong approval ratings in solidly
red states and majority support in key states such as Georgia (51.0%), Texas (50.7%), and Florida (50.2%)• However, Trump had lower levels of support in swing states such as Pennsylvania (46.7%) and Michigan (45.9%)
Suburban districts may play an important role in 2020 elections• Many suburban districts flipped from red to blue in the 2018 congressional midterm elections: of the 69 suburban
districts held by Republicans before the midterms, 37 voted for the Democratic House candidate• These suburban voters could play a significant role in both the 2020 presidential election and 2020 congressional races
Changing demographics in key states could make them more competitive• Metropolitan areas in Texas are projected to double in population from 2010 to 2050• Texas experienced the largest absolute growth in immigrant population of any state from 2000 to 2017• If Clinton won Texas, she would have reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election
JoeBiden
ElizabethWarren
BernieSanders
KamalaHarris
Pete Buttigieg
CoryBooker
AmyKlobuchar
AndrewYang
JulianCastro
Beto O’Rourke
Wayne Messam
MarianneWilliamson
TomSteyer
JohnDelaney
Joe Sestak
TulsiGabbard
TimRyan
SteveBullock
Michael Bennet
Billde Blasio(dropped out)
KirstenGillibrand(dropped out)
SethMoulton(dropped out)
Jay Inslee(droppedout)
JohnHickenlooper(dropped out)
EricSwalwell (dropped out)
DonaldTrump
BillWeld
Joe Walsh
MarkSanford
2020 candidates for US president
Slide last updated on: September 20, 2019
6
Six Democratic primary candidates have dropped their 2020 presidential bid
2016 and 2020 presidential primary dropout timeline
AS OF SEPTEMBER 20, 2019
6
Sources: Ballotpedia, Fortune, CNN.
August Gebhard-Koenigstein| Slide last updated on: September 20, 2019
Indicates a primary debate Indicates the New Hampshire (first line) and Iowa (second line) caucuses
7
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have raised the most so far in the Democratic primary
46.3
35.7
32.3
26.325.1
22.0
14.913.6
12.7 12.5
6.15.3 5.3
4.1 3.5
19.1
15.9
9.7
18.9
11.8 11.1
6.7
8.7
6.07.1
3.6 4.1 4.43.0
1.3
Sources: FEC
Total receipts at the end Q2 (June 30, 2019)
■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: July 23, 2019
IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
8
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) had the most cash on hand of the Democratic field at the end of Q2
27.27
22.67
19.78
13.27
10.90
8.247.44
6.71
5.36 5.24
2.44 2.191.49 1.19 1.14
Sources: FEC
Total cash on hand at the end Q2 (June 30, 2019)
Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: July 23, 2019
IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
16 16
11
8
3
5
2 21
2
5
1
1
1
1
1
3
1
1
1
2
5
1
11
2
Biden Harris Booker Warren Klobuchar O'Rourke Sanders Castro Buttigieg Delaney Bullock
9
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris lead the pack of Democratic contenders in number of endorsements
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019
Sources: FiveThirtyEight
■ Representative endorsement ■ Senator endorsement ■ Governor endorsement ■ Mayor endorsement
Endorsements for declared Democratic candidates
Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts
Sources: National Journal Research, 2019
Bernie Sanders currently has the largest social media following of any declared presidential candidate besides Trump
10
Current as of October 8, 2019
■ Facebook likes ■ Twitter followers ■ Instagram followers
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: October 8, 2019
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000 Donald TrumpFacebook likes: 24.5 millionTwitter followers: 65.4 millionInstagram followers: 14.9 million
Ashley Thieme | Slide last updated on: August 15, 2019
Sources: New York Times
11
14 states will hold their primary elections on Super TuesdayPreliminary 2020 primary schedule
■ Primary for both parties ■ Democratic primary ■ Republican Primary
February
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30
March April
May June
1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31
1 2
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20 21 22 23
24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
1 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9 10 11 12 13
14 15 16 17 18 19 20
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
28 29 30
Feb. 3: IA caucusFeb. 11: NHFeb. 15: SC (R)Feb. 22: NV caucus (D)Feb. 25: NV caucus (R)Feb. 29: SC (D)
March 3: Super Tuesday (AL, AK (R), AR, CA, CO, GA, MA, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, American Samoa caucus (D), Democrats Abroad) March 7: KS caucus (R), KY caucus (R), LA,ME caucus (R)March 8: ME caucus (D), Puerto Rico (R)March 10: HI caucus (R), ID, MI, MS, MO, ND caucus (D), OH, WA
March 12: Virgin Islands caucus (R)March 14: DC (R), Guam caucus (R), Northern Marianas (D), WY (R)March 17: AZ, FL, IL, Northern Marianas (R)March 24: American Samoa caucus (R)
April 3-5: ND (R)April 4: AK (D), HI (D)April 7: WIApril 21: NY (R)April 28: CT, DE, MD, NY (D), PA, RI
May 2: KS (D), Guam caucus (D)May 5: INMay 12: NE, WVMay 19: KY (D), OR
June 2: MT, NJ, NM, SDJune 6: Virgin Islands caucus (D) June 7: Puerto Rico (D)June 16: DC (D)Not yet scheduled: WY caucus (D)
Democratic National Convention: July 13-16
Republican National Convention: August 24-27
Conventions
Other declared candidates, as of October 7, 2019
Candidate% voters' first
choice
Tulsi Gabbard 3
Andrew Yang 3
Beto O’Rourke 2
Michael Bennet 1
Steve Bullock 1
John Delaney 1
Amy Klobuchar 1
Tim Ryan 1
Julián Castro 0
Marianne Williamson 0
Someone else 1
3333
21
11
10
18
30
5
2
8
2/1
2
2/1
9
2/2
6
3/5
3/1
2
3/1
9
3/2
6
4/2
4/9
4/1
6
4/2
3
4/3
0
5/7
5/1
4
5/2
1
5/2
8
6/4
6/1
1
6/1
8
6/2
5
7/2
7/9
7/1
6
7/2
3
7/3
0
8/6
8/1
3
8/2
0
8/2
7
9/3
9/1
0
9/1
7
9/2
4
10/1
10/8
12
Early primary state voters prefer Joe Biden for the 2020 Democratic nominee for president
MORNING CONSULT TRACKING POLL OF 16,529 REGISTERED VOTERS IN EARLY STATES
Presentation Center | Slide last updated on: October 8, 2019
Sources: Morning Consult, 2019
Polling of voters’ first choices in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada
Sanders
Harris
Warren
Booker
Buttigieg
Biden
Steyer
13
Qualifying for the Oct. 15 Democratic primary debates
Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: October 8, 2019
Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Vox, The Hill.
Candidate Polling Donors Both
1. Joe Biden
2. Pete Buttigieg
3. Kamala Harris
4. Beto O’Rourke
5. Bernie Sanders
6. Elizabeth Warren
7. Cory Booker
8. Andrew Yang
9. Amy Klobuchar
10. Julian Castro
11. Tom Steyer
12. Tulsi Gabbard
13. Marianne Williamson
14. John Delaney
15. Tim Ryan
16. Steve Bullock
17. Michael Bennet
18. Wayne Messam
19. Joe Sestak
Criteria for inclusion in the October 15 Democratic primary debates
• 2% of vote in at least four DNC-approved national or early-state polls released between June 28 and October 1
AND
• At least 130,000 unique donors, with at least 400 donors in 20 states
Look ahead: criteria for inclusion in the November Democratic primary debate
• 3% of vote in four qualifying polls or 5% in two single-state polls in IA, NH, SC, or NV
AND
• At least 165,000 unique donors, with at least 600 donors in 20 states
Five candidates have qualified for the November debate so far: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris
Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Congressional fundraising
Gubernatorial elections
Slide last updated on: August 29, 2019
Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster
15
Senators up for re-election in 2020
NH
VT
OH
WVVA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN*
KY
IN
MI
WI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM*
CO
WY*
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS*
AK
HI
Democrats (12) Republicans (22)
Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)*
Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC)
Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX)
Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)
Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)*
Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Open (GA)** Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD)
*Senators not seeking reelection in 2020 **Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will fill seat before 2020 special election
■ Democratic senator Trump victory
■ Republican senator Clinton victory
Danari White | Slide last updated on: May 14, 2019
Sources: New York Times
16
Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidatePERCENTS INDICATE THE SHARE BY WHICH EITHER TRUMP OR CLINTON WON IN 2016
NY
ME
NC3.6%
SC14.2%
GA5.1%
TN 26%
KY29.8%
LA19.7%
TX9%
OK36.4%
ID31.7%
OR11%
WA
CA
AZ3.5% NM
8.3%
CO4.9%
WY46.3%
MT20.2%
SD29.8%
IA9.4%
UT
AR26.9%
MS16.8%
NE25%
KS20.5%
AK14.7%
WI
OH
PA
IN
ND
WV41.7%
MO
FL
MI0.3%
MN1.5%
NV
HI
IL16.8%
AL27.7%
VA5.4%
MA27.2%
RI15.5%
DE 11.4%
NJ14%
Gary Peters (D) won in 2014 by 13.3%.
Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017 special election by 1.7%
Cory Gardner (R) won by 1.9% in 2014
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip
17Slide last updated on: September 16, 2019
Sources: National Journal
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL
Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings
Hotline: seven GOP-held Senate seats are in the top ten most likely to flip party control
3
6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R)
7. Michigan — Gary Peters (D)
8. Georgia — David Perdue (R)
9. Texas — John Cornyn (R)
10. Georgia (Special) — Johnny Isakson (R)
1. Alabama:• Incumbent: Doug Jones (D)• Challengers: former Auburn football coach
Tommy Tuberville (R), Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL-1)
2. Colorado: • Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)• Challenger: former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)
3. Arizona:• Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)• Challengers: Veteran and retired astronaut Mark
Kelly (D)
4. North Carolina:• Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)• Challengers: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham
(D), State Sen. Erica Smith (D)
5. Maine: • Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)• Potential challenger: State House Speaker Sara
Gideon (D)
1
2
4
5
8,10
67
9
*List of challengers is not exhaustive
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat
18Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019
* Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020Sources: National Journal
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL
Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings
Hotline: thirteen Democrat-held House seats are in the top 20 most likely to flip party control
1. Oklahoma – 5th District: Rep. Kendra Horn (D)
2. South Carolina – 1st District: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)
3. Texas – 23rd District: Rep. Will Hurd (R)*
4. New Mexico – 2nd District: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D)
5. Utah – 4th District: Rep Ben McAdams (D)
6. New York – 22nd District: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D)
7. Minnesota – 7th District: Rep. Collin Peterson (D)
8. New York – 11th District: Rep. Max Rose (D)
9. Pennsylvania – 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R)
10. Georgia – 7th District: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)*
11. Iowa – 3rd District: Rep. Cindy Axne (D)
12. Iowa – 1st District: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D)
13. Maine – 2nd District: Rep. Jared Golden (D)
14. Texas – 24th District: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)*
15. Texas – 22nd District: Rep. Pete Olson (R)*
16. Virginia – 7th District: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D)
17. Pennsylvania – 1st District: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
18. New York – 24th District: Rep. John Katko (R)
19. Georgia – 6th District: Rep. Lucy McBath (D)
20. Illinois – 14th District: Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)
1
23
4
5
6
18
7
89
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
19
20
4
18
10
15
21
14
3
6
10
7
7
15
28
25
35
5
16
37
20
16
14
13
27
9
13
16
18
11
18
9
23
9
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019
*Data includes retirements; does not include members of Congress seeking a different office or members of Congress who resigned before the electionSources: FiveThirtyEight; National Journal, Ballotpedia.
19
More Republicans than Democrats have announced their retirement before the 2020 electionRetirements from Congress, by election cycle
■ Republicans ■ Democrats
Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Congressional fundraising
Gubernatorial elections
21
The national GOP committees have raised about $63 million more than their Democratic counterparts so far
Sources: FEC
$141,422,037
$76,175,306
$59,543,291
$52,587,041
$42,656,431
$37,709,149
$173,427,745
$236,665,508
RNC
DCCC
DNC
NRCC
NRSC
DSCC
Total Dem
Total GOP
Total receipts by national party PACs
AS OF AUGUST 31, 2019
Alice Johnson| Slide last updated on: October 8, 2019
■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019
Sources: National Journal Hotline
22
A look at out-raised House incumbents
Thirteen incumbents were out-raised by challengers in Quarter 2, and three GOP incumbents were out-raised by GOP challengers
District Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts
Challenger Challenger receipts
IL-13 Lean R Rodney Davis (R) $422,070 Betsy Dirksen (D) $521,887
TX-22 Toss Up Peter Olson (R) $377,529 Sri Kulkarni (D) $420,825
AZ-06 Lean R David Schweikert (R) $237,100 Hiral Tipirneni (D) $440,040
VA-05 Likely R Denver Riggleman (R) $286,473 Roger Huffstetler (D) $303,743
CA-04 Solid R Tom McClintock (R) $173,460 Brynne Kennedy (D) $390,892
CA-08 Solid R Paul Cook (R) $139,299 Christine Bubser (D) $204,800
SC-02 Solid R Joe Wilson (R) $108,589 Adair Boroughs (D) $245,669
CA-39 Lean D Gilbert Cisneros (D) $318,085 Young Kim (R) $401,281
CA-43 Solid D Maxine Waters (D) $135,526 Omar Navarro (R) $162,787
MI-03 Toss Up Justin Amash (I) $177,053 James Lower (R) $200,546
IA-04 Likely R Steve King (R) $91,536 Randall Feenstra (R) $140,451
NY-27 Solid R Chris Collins (R) $511,380 Chris Jacobs (R) $773,273
FL-03 Solid R Theodore Yoho (R) $14,044 Amy Wells (R) $38,470
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: August 5, 2019
Sources: National Journal Hotline
23
Top 10 House freshmen fundraisers
Over 30 Democratic freshmen members of Congress raised $500,000 or more in Q2
District Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts
NY-14 Solid D Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez $1.2 million
CA-45 Lean D Katie Porter $1 million
NY-11 Toss Up Max Rose $801,000
CA-48 Lean D Harley Rouda $775,000
CA-10 Lean D Josh Harder $775,000
IL-06 Lean D Sean Casten $737,000
MI-11 Lean D Haley Stevens $735,000
MI-08 Toss Up Elissa Slotkin $734,000
CA-25 Likely D Katie Hill $732,000
IL-14 Toss Up Lauren Underwood $714,000
The majority of the top 10 freshmen fundraisers are in competitive districts, including three freshmen in toss up districts: Rep. Rose (NY-11), Rep. Slotkin (MI-08), and Rep. Underwood (IL-14)
Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: August 27, 2019
Sources: National Journal Hotline
24
A look at out-raised Senate incumbents
Two incumbents were out-raised by challengers and 8 incumbents raised over $2 million in Quarter 2
State Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts
Challenger Challenger receipts
Arizona Toss Up Martha McSally (R) $3,399,993 Mark Kelly (D) $4,242,066
Massachusetts Solid D Ed Markey (D) $1,032,019 Shannon Liss-Riordan (D) $1,145,481
State Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts
Arizona Toss Up Martha McSally (R) $3,399,993
Kentucky Likely R Mitch McConnell (R) $3,064,559
South Carolina Solid R Lindsey Graham (R) $3,012,617
Texas Solid R John Cornyn (R) $2,528,370
Michigan Likely D Gary Peters (D) $2,432,299
Colorado Toss Up Cory Gardner (R) $2,009,253
Alabama Toss Up Doug Jones (D) $2,006,226
Maine Toss Up Susan Collins (R) $2,003,723
Top incumbent fundraisers
Despite bringing in the most money in Q2, Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) was out-raised by retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) for the second consecutive quarter
Roadmap
Presidential election
Congressional elections
Congressional fundraising
Gubernatorial elections
26
One out of 11 governor seats is open going into the 2020 election
*“Open seats” are governorships where incumbent governors are term-limited, they have announced that they are not running for re-election, or lost their primary
Sources: Cook Political Report, 2019; Ballotpedia, 2019.
■ Dem. incumbent (3) ■ Dem. open* (1)
■ GOP incumbent (7)
Slide last updated on: May 14, 2019
2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status
NH
VT
OH
WVVA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
IN
MI
WI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS
AK
HI
MD
MA
RI
CT
DC
DE
NJ
■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip
27Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: August 5, 2019
Sources: National Journal
IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL
Hotline’s 2019-2020 gubernatorial power rankings
Hotline: seven GOP-held governor seats are in the top ten most likely to flip party control in 2019-2020
3
6. Mississippi — Open: Phil Bryant (R) is term-limited
7. West Virginia — Jim Justice (R)
8. Vermont — Phil Scott (R)
9. Missouri — Mike Parson (R)
10. Indiana — Eric Holcomb (R)
1. Montana:• Open: Steve Bullock (D) is term-limited• Candidates: Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT-AL),
state AG Tim Fox (R), Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (D)
2. Kentucky: • Incumbent: Matt Bevin (R)• Challenger: Andy Beshear, state AG and son of
former Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear
3. Louisiana:• Incumbent: John Bel Edwards (D)• Challengers: Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-LA-5),
businessman Eddie Rispone
4. North Carolina:• Incumbent: Roy Cooper (D)• Challengers: Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, state Rep.
Holly Grange
5. New Hampshire: • Incumbent: Chris Sununu (R)• Potential challengers: State Senate majority
leader Dan Feltes, former state Senator and 2018 nominee Molly Kelly
1
24
5
6
7
8
9
10
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