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Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Es#mated 2014, Annual Percent Change (for available na#ons)
Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region % 1 Turkmenistan Central Asia 10.3 169 Austria Central Europe 0.3 1 Ethiopia Africa 10.3 170 Brazil South America 0.1 3 Democratic Republic of the Congo Africa 9.1 170 Micronesia Southeast Asia 0.1 4 Uzbekistan Central Asia 8.1 172 Japan Asia -0.1 5 Palau Southeast Asia 8.0 172 Finland Northern Europe -0.1 6 Mongolia Asia 7.8 174 Yemen Middle East -0.2 7 Myanmar Southeast Asia 7.7 174 The Gambia Africa -0.2 8 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 7.5 176 Barbados Caribbean -0.3 9 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 7.4 177 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.4 9 Sri Lanka Southeast Asia 7.4 177 Italy Europe -0.4 9 Mozambique Africa 7.4 179 Brunei Darussalam Southeast Asia -0.7 9 China Asia 7.4 180 San Marino Europe -1.0
13 Dominican Republic Caribbean 7.3 181 St. Lucia Caribbean -1.1 14 Tanzania Africa 7.2 182 Serbia Eastern Europe -1.8 14 India Asia 7.2 183 Cyprus Europe -2.3 16 Rwanda Africa 7.0 184 Iraq Middle East -2.4 16 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.0 185 Equatorial Guinea Africa -3.1 16 St. Kitts and Nevis Caribbean 7.0 186 Venezuela South America -4.0 19 Niger Africa 6.9 187 Ukraine Eastern Europe -6.8 19 Chad Africa 6.9 188 Libya Middle East -24.0
Source: International Monetary Fund, April 2015 WEO Database
Es<mated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2015 Projected*
3.0% -1.0%
0.9% 2.9%
7.5% 6.8% 6.6%
-3.8% 2.9%
4.5% 4.3%
3.1% 2.2%
2.7% 1.0%
2.5% 0.5%
1.6% 1.2% 1.5%
2.4%
-6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%
Mexico Brazil
Latin America and Caribbean Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan
India (2) China
Developing Asia Russia
Central/eastern Europe Sub-Saharan Africa
Emerging/developing countries (3) United States
Canada United Kingdom
Japan Spain
Italy Germany
France Euro area (4)
Advanced economies (4)
Annual % Change
1. Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during February 6–March 6, 2015. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted. 2. India: Data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis, and GDP from 2011 onward is based on GDP at market prices with FY2011/12 as a base year. Growth rates in the January 2015 WEO Update were based on the GDP at market prices with FY2004/05 as a base year. 3. Emerging/developing countries: The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of the emerging market and developing economies. 4. Euro Area: Excludes Lithuania, which joined the euro area in January 2015. Data for Lithuania are not included in the euro area aggregates because Eurostat has not fully released the consolidated data for the group. Lithuania is included in the advanced economies. In the January 2015 WEO Update, Lithuania was included in the emerging market and developing economies.
Source: International Monetary Fund, April 2015 WEO Database
Jobs 0.3%
Incomes 4.7%
Profits 61.0%
Housing -‐6.8%
Stocks 33.5%
-‐70%
-‐50%
-‐30%
-‐10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Percen
t cha
nge sinc
e en
d of 200
7
What Lies Beneath
Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance
*Through June 2014
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median Weekly Earnings, Full-‐Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q1 through 2015Q1
*SA, Constant 1982-‐1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-‐U) Wage and salary workers ages 16+
$315
$320
$325
$330
$335
$340
$345
$350
$355
2000
Q1
2000
Q3
2001Q1
2001Q3
2002
Q1
2002
Q3
2003
Q1
2003
Q3
2004
Q1
2004
Q3
2005
Q1
2005
Q3
2006
Q1
2006
Q3
2007
Q1
2007
Q3
2008
Q1
2008
Q3
2009
Q1
2009
Q3
2010Q1
2010Q3
2011Q
1 20
11Q3
2012Q1
2012Q3
2013Q1
2013Q3
2014Q1
2014Q3
2015Q1
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Employment Cost Index 12-Month Percent Change (NSA)
All Civilian workers, all industries, NSA
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
2001Q2
2001Q4
2002
Q2
2002
Q4
2003
Q2
2003
Q4
2004
Q2
2004
Q4
2005
Q2
2005
Q4
2006
Q2
2006
Q4
2007
Q2
2007
Q4
2008
Q2
2008
Q4
2009
Q2
2009
Q4
2010Q2
2010Q4
2011Q
2 20
11Q4
2012Q2
2012Q4
2013Q2
2013Q4
2014Q2
2014Q4
Wages & Salaries Benefits
Industrial Produc<on March 2001 through March 2015
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Mar-‐01
Jul-‐01
Nov
-‐01
Mar-‐02
Jul-‐02
Nov
-‐02
Mar-‐03
Jul-‐03
Nov
-‐03
Mar-‐04
Jul-‐04
Nov
-‐04
Mar-‐05
Jul-‐05
Nov
-‐05
Mar-‐06
Jul-‐06
Nov
-‐06
Mar-‐07
Jul-‐07
Nov
-‐07
Mar-‐08
Jul-‐08
Nov
-‐08
Mar-‐09
Jul-‐09
Nov
-‐09
Mar-‐10
Jul-‐10
Nov
-‐10
Mar-‐11
Jul-‐11
Nov
-‐11
Mar-‐12
Jul-‐12
Nov
-‐12
Mar-‐13
Jul-‐13
Nov
-‐13
Mar-‐14
Jul-‐14
Nov
-‐14
Mar-‐15
Inde
x (200
7 = 100)
(Base year: 2007)
Gross Domes<c Product 1990Q1 through 2014Q4
-‐10%
-‐8%
-‐6%
-‐4%
-‐2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% 1990
Q1
1990
Q4
1991Q3
1992
Q2
1993
Q1
1993
Q4
1994
Q3
1995
Q2
1996
Q1
1996
Q4
1997
Q3
1998
Q2
1999
Q1
1999
Q4
2000
Q3
2001Q2
2002
Q1
2002
Q4
2003
Q3
2004
Q2
2005
Q1
2005
Q4
2006
Q3
2007
Q2
2008
Q1
2008
Q4
2009
Q3
2010Q2
2011Q
1 20
11Q4
2012Q3
2013Q2
2014Q1
2014Q4 P
erce
nt Cha
nge from
Pre
ceding
Per
iod (SAAR)
2014Q4: +2.2%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Contribu<ons to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q4 – 2014Q4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-‐3.0
-‐2.0
-‐1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
Personal Consumption
Government Spending
Net Exports Gross Investment
2.5
-‐0.7
1.1 0.6 0.8
-‐0.2
-‐1.7
-‐1.1
1.8
0.3
-‐0.3
2.9
2.21
0.80 0.78
1.18
2.98
-‐0.35
-‐1.03
0.61
SAAR (%
)
Q4-‐13 Q1-‐14 Q2-‐14 Q3-‐14 Q4-‐14
-‐1,000
-‐800
-‐600
-‐400
-‐200
0
200
400
600 Jan-‐02
May-‐02
Sep-‐02
Jan-‐03
May-‐03
Sep-‐03
Jan-‐04
May-‐04
Sep-‐04
Jan-‐05
May-‐05
Sep-‐05
Jan-‐06
May-‐06
Sep-‐06
Jan-‐07
May-‐07
Sep-‐07
Jan-‐08
May-‐08
Sep-‐08
Jan-‐09
May-‐09
Sep-‐09
Jan-‐10
May-‐10
Sep-‐10
Jan-‐11
May-‐11
Sep-‐11
Jan-‐12
May-‐12
Sep-‐12
Jan-‐13
May-‐13
Sep-‐13
Jan-‐14
May-‐14
Sep-‐14
Jan-‐15
Thou
sand
s
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
March 2015: +126K
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through March 2015
Na<onal Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector March 2014 v. March 2015
4
59
72
73
150
188
282
490
541
607
662
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Mining and Logging
Information
Government
Other Services
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Professional and Business Services
Thousands, SA
All told 3,128K Jobs gained
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) March 2014 v. March 2015 Absolute Change
-1,800
200
600
900
1,300
3,900
5,800
6,400
7,100
11,600
-4,000 0 4,000 8,000 12,000
Manufacturing
Other Services
Information
Financial Activities
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Government
Professional and Business Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Leisure and Hospitality
Education and Health Services
MD Total: +34.0K; +1.4%
US Total (SA): +3,128K; +2.3%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) series MD added 37,169 jobs between March 2014 and March 2015.
2,450
2,470
2,490
2,510
2,530
2,550
2,570
2,590
2,610
2,630
2,650 Jan-‐05
May-‐0
5 Se
p-‐05
Jan-‐06
May-‐0
6 Se
p-‐0
6 Jan-‐07
May-‐0
7 Se
p-‐0
7 Jan-‐08
May-‐0
8 Se
p-‐0
8 Jan-‐09
May-‐0
9 Se
p-‐0
9 Jan-‐10
May-‐1
0 Se
p-‐10
Jan-‐11
May-‐11
Sep-‐11
Jan-‐12
May-‐1
2 Se
p-‐12
Jan-‐13
May-‐1
3 Se
p-‐13
Jan-‐14
May-‐1
4 Se
p-‐14
Jan-‐15
Thou
sand
s
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Maryland Nonfarm Employment January 2005 through March 2015
-600
-600
200
600
1,200
1,300
2,100
2,500
2,900
5,500
-2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Information
Government
Manufacturing
Other Services
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Bal<more-‐Columbia-‐Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) March 2014 v. March 2015 Absolute Change
Baltimore MSA Total: +15.1K; +1.1%
MD Total (SA): +34.0K; +1.4%
US Total (SA): +3,128K; +2.3%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Washington, DC-‐Arlington-‐Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) March 2014 v. March 2015 Absolute Change
-1,800
-1,500
-1,000
800
3,200
5,200
8,800
11,100
12,900
13,000
-5,000 -1,000 3,000 7,000 11,000 15,000
Information
Financial Activities
Manufacturing
Other Services
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Leisure and Hospitality
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Government
Professional and Business Services
Education and Health Services
DC MSA Total: +50.7K; +1.6%
US Total (SA): +3,128K; +2.3%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-‐over-‐year Percent Change: 2.3%
Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) March 2014 v. March 2015 Percent Change
RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE % 1 UTAH 3.9 17 KENTUCKY 1.9 35 MISSOURI 1.3 2 FLORIDA 3.7 17 WISCONSIN 1.9 36 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.2 3 WASHINGTON 3.4 20 MASSACHUSETTS 1.8 36 ILLINOIS 1.2 4 OREGON 3.3 20 MINNESOTA 1.8 36 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.2 5 IDAHO 3.2 20 TENNESSEE 1.8 36 NEW JERSEY 1.2 6 CALIFORNIA 3.1 23 INDIANA 1.7 40 KANSAS 1.1 6 GEORGIA 3.1 23 IOWA 1.7 41 RHODE ISLAND 1.0 8 NORTH DAKOTA 2.9 23 SOUTH DAKOTA 1.7 42 HAWAII 0.9 8 TEXAS 2.9 26 CONNECTICUT 1.6 42 PENNSYLVANIA 0.9
10 COLORADO 2.8 26 NEW YORK 1.6 44 MONTANA 0.8 10 NEVADA 2.8 28 OHIO 1.5 44 OKLAHOMA 0.8 10 NORTH CAROLINA 2.8 29 ALABAMA 1.4 44 VIRGINIA 0.8 13 ARIZONA 2.6 29 MARYLAND 1.4 47 LOUISIANA 0.7 14 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.5 29 NEBRASKA 1.4 48 MISSISSIPPI 0.6 15 DELAWARE 2.1 29 NEW MEXICO 1.4 49 MAINE 0.4 15 MICHIGAN 2.1 29 VERMONT 1.4 50 ALASKA 0.2 17 ARKANSAS 1.9 29 WYOMING 1.4 51 WEST VIRGINIA -0.5
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate March 2015: 5.5%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) March 2015 RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %
1 NEBRASKA 2.6 17 WISCONSIN 4.6 35 WASHINGTON 5.9 2 NORTH DAKOTA 3.1 19 MAINE 4.8 36 ILLINOIS 6.0 3 UTAH 3.4 19 MASSACHUSETTS 4.8 37 NEW MEXICO 6.1 4 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.5 19 VIRGINIA 4.8 38 ARIZONA 6.2 5 MINNESOTA 3.7 22 KENTUCKY 5.1 39 GEORGIA 6.3 6 IDAHO 3.8 22 OHIO 5.1 39 RHODE ISLAND 6.3 6 VERMONT 3.8 24 PENNSYLVANIA 5.3 39 TENNESSEE 6.3 8 NEW HAMPSHIRE 3.9 25 MARYLAND 5.4 42 CONNECTICUT 6.4 8 OKLAHOMA 3.9 25 NORTH CAROLINA 5.4 43 ALASKA 6.5
10 IOWA 4.0 25 OREGON 5.4 43 CALIFORNIA 6.5 11 HAWAII 4.1 28 ARKANSAS 5.6 43 NEW JERSEY 6.5 11 MONTANA 4.1 28 MICHIGAN 5.6 46 LOUISIANA 6.6 11 WYOMING 4.1 28 MISSOURI 5.6 46 WEST VIRGINIA 6.6 14 COLORADO 4.2 31 ALABAMA 5.7 48 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.7 14 KANSAS 4.2 31 FLORIDA 5.7 49 MISSISSIPPI 6.8 14 TEXAS 4.2 31 NEW YORK 5.7 50 NEVADA 7.1 17 DELAWARE 4.6 34 INDIANA 5.8 51 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.7
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) February 2015
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR
1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.0 10
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5
2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.1 12
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8
3 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.3 12
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.8
4 San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 14 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.0
5 Boston-Cambridge-Nashua, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 4.8 15
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.1
6 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.9 16
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.3
7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 17
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5
7 San Diego-Carlsbad, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.3 18 Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7
9 Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.4 19
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.8
10 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 20
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.0
MD County Unemployment Rates February 2015
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rank Jurisdiction UR Rank Jurisdiction UR
1 Howard County 4.0 13 Talbot County 6.3
1 Montgomery County 4.0 14 Caroline County 6.6
3 Calvert County 4.7 15 Cecil County 6.7
4 Anne Arundel County 4.8 15 Washington County 6.7
5 Carroll County 4.9 17 Kent County 7.2
6 Frederick County 5.0 18 Allegany County 7.8
7 Charles County 5.2 19 Garrett County 8.1
7 Queen Anne's County 5.2 20 Wicomico County 8.3
7 St. Mary's County 5.2 21 Baltimore City 8.4
10 Prince George's County 5.3 22 Dorchester County 9.1
11 Harford County 5.5 23 Somerset County 10.1
12 Baltimore County 5.9 24 Worcester County 15.0
Taxes MaUer – They are the Item that is Easiest to Quan<fy and Compare
Source: Forbes
• Between 2007 and 2012, MD raised taxes and fees 24 times
• From 2000 to 2010, 66,000 residents along with $5.5 billion in taxable income left the State on net. ! Virginia, by comparison, experienced positive net migration over the same period
Fastest/Slowest Growing MD Municipali<es Popula#on Growth April 2010 – July 2013
Source: State Department of Planning, Maryland Data Center
TOP 20 BOTTOM 20
Rank City/Place County % Rank City/Place County % 1 Upper Marlboro town Prince George's County 25.8% 141 Ridgely town Caroline County -1.4% 2 Leonardtown town St. Mary's County 19.5% 142 Friendsville town Garrett County -1.4% 3 Emmitsburg town Frederick County 10.3% 143 Luke town Allegany County -1.5% 4 Gaithersburg city Montgomery County 9.7% 144 Preston town Caroline County -1.7% 5 Takoma Park city Montgomery County 6.0% 145 Federalsburg town Caroline County -1.7% 6 Fruitland city Wicomico County 5.3% 146 Cumberland city Allegany County -1.8% 7 Centreville town Queen Anne's County 4.7% 147 Greensboro town Caroline County -2.0% 8 Rockville city Montgomery County 4.5% 148 St. Michaels town Talbot County -2.0% 9 North Chevy Chase village Montgomery County 4.3% 149 Lonaconing town Allegany County -2.1%
10 Poolesville town Montgomery County 4.3% 150 Queen Anne town (pt.) Talbot County -2.1% 11 Walkersville town Frederick County 4.2% 151 Trappe town Talbot County -2.1% 12 Havre de Grace city Harford County 4.0% 152 Barton town Allegany County -2.4% 13 Thurmont town Frederick County 3.9% 153 Galena town Kent County -2.5% 14 Kensington town Montgomery County 3.9% 154 Vienna town Dorchester County -2.5% 15 Somerset town Montgomery County 3.9% 155 Oxford town Talbot County -2.6% 16 Woodsboro town Frederick County 3.9% 156 Midland town Allegany County -2.7% 17 Salisbury city Wicomico County 3.8% 157 Westernport town Allegany County -2.7% 18 Garrett Park town Montgomery County 3.8% 158 Millington town (pt.) Kent County -2.8% 19 Chevy Chase View town Montgomery County 3.8% 159 Betterton town Kent County -2.9% 20 Myersville town Frederick County 3.8% 160 Frostburg city Allegany County -3.1%
Months of Inventory by Maryland County February 2015
Source: MAR
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Maryland: 6.4 Months
15-‐Year & 30-‐Year Fixed Mortgage Rates April 1995 through April 2015*
Source: Freddie Mac
2.92%
3.65%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Apr-‐95
Sep-‐95
Fe
b-‐96
Jul-‐96
Dec-‐9
May-‐9
7 Oct-‐97
Mar-‐9
Aug
-‐9Jan-‐99
Jun-‐99
Nov
-‐9Apr-‐00
Sep-‐00
Fe
b-‐01
Jul-‐01
Dec-‐01
May-‐0
Oct-‐02
Mar-‐0
Aug
-‐03
Jan-‐04
Jun-‐04
Nov
-‐0Apr-‐05
Sep-‐05
Fe
b-‐06
Jul-‐06
Dec-‐0
6 May-‐0
Oct-‐07
Mar-‐0
Aug
-‐0Jan-‐09
Jun-‐09
Nov
-‐0Apr-‐10
Sep-‐10
Feb-‐11
Jul-‐11
Dec-‐11
May-‐12
Oct-‐12
Mar-‐13
Aug
-‐13
Jan-‐14
Jun-‐14
Nov
-‐14
Apr-‐15
Rate
15-‐yr 30-‐yr
*Week ending 4/23/2015
U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through March 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
March 2015 481K
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Thou
sand
s, SAAR
U.S. Housing Starts March 1999 through March 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500 Mar-‐9
Jul-‐99
Nov
-‐99
Mar-‐0
Jul-‐00
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐01
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐02
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐03
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐04
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐05
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐06
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐07
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐08
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐09
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐1
Jul-‐10
Nov
-‐1Mar-‐11
Jul-‐11
Nov
-‐11
Mar-‐1
Jul-‐12
Nov
-‐1Mar-‐1
Jul-‐13
Nov
-‐1Mar-‐1
Jul-‐14
Nov
-‐1Mar-‐1
Thou
sand
s, SAAR
1 Unit 5 units or more
March 2015: 1 Unit: 618K 5 Units or more: 287K
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Homeownership
2014 Q4: 63.9%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70% Q4-‐1980
Q4-‐1981
Q4-‐1982
Q4-‐1983
Q4-‐1984
Q4-‐1985
Q4-‐1986
Q4-‐1987
Q4-‐1988
Q4-‐1989
Q4-‐1990
Q4-‐1991
Q4-‐1992
Q4-‐1993
Q4-‐1994
Q4-‐1995
Q4-‐1996
Q4-‐1997
Q4-‐1998
Q4-‐1999
Q4-‐20
00
Q4-‐20
01
Q4-‐20
02
Q4-‐20
03
Q4-‐20
04
Q4-‐20
05
Q4-‐20
06
Q4-‐20
07
Q4-‐20
08
Q4-‐20
09
Q4-‐20
10
Q4-‐20
11 Q4-‐20
12
Q4-‐20
13
Q4-‐20
14
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
U.S. Private New Multifamily Construction February 1993 through February 2015
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60 Fe
b-‐9
3 Fe
b-‐9
4 Fe
b-‐9
5 Fe
b-‐9
6 Fe
b-‐9
7 Fe
b-‐9
8 Fe
b-‐9
9 Fe
b-‐0
0 Fe
b-‐01
Feb-‐0
2 Fe
b-‐0
3 Fe
b-‐0
4 Fe
b-‐0
5 Fe
b-‐0
6 Fe
b-‐0
7 Fe
b-‐0
8 Fe
b-‐0
9 Fe
b-‐10
Feb-‐11
Feb-‐12
Feb-‐13
Feb-‐14
Feb-‐15
$ Billion
s (SAAR)
U.S. Housing Building Permits March 1999 through March 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500 Mar-‐9
Jul-‐99
Nov
-‐99
Mar-‐0
Jul-‐00
Nov
-‐00
Mar-‐0
Jul-‐01
Nov
-‐0 1 Mar-‐0
2 Jul-‐02
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐03
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐04
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐05
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐06
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐07
Nov
-‐07
Mar-‐0
Jul-‐08
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐0
Jul-‐09
Nov
-‐0Mar-‐1
Jul-‐10
Nov
-‐1Mar-‐11
Jul-‐11
Nov
-‐11
Mar-‐1
2 Jul-‐12
Nov
-‐1Mar-‐1
Jul-‐13
Nov
-‐1Mar-‐1
Jul-‐14
Nov
-‐1Mar-‐1
Thou
sand
s, SAAR
1 Unit 5 units or more
March 2015: 1 Unit: 636K 5 Units or more: 378K
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
1.3% 2.1%
2.5% 2.9%
4.6% 4.7% 4.9% 5.7% 5.9%
7.8% 8.1% 8.3% 8.4%
12-‐M
onth %
Cha
nge
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros January 2015, 12-Month Percentage Change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
Maryland Median Home Sale Prices February 2005 through February 2015
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
-‐20%
-‐15%
-‐10%
-‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30% Fe
b-‐05
May-‐05
Aug
-‐05
Nov
-‐05
Feb-‐06
May-‐06
Aug
-‐06
Nov
-‐06
Feb-‐07
May-‐07
Aug
-‐07
Nov
-‐07
Feb-‐08
May-‐08
Aug
-‐08
Nov
-‐08
Feb-‐09
May-‐09
Aug
-‐09
Nov
-‐09
Feb-‐10
May-‐10
Aug
-‐10
Nov
-‐10
Feb-‐11
May-‐11
Aug
-‐11
Nov
-‐11
Feb-‐12
May-‐12
Aug
-‐12
Nov
-‐12
Feb-‐13
May-‐13
Aug
-‐13
Nov
-‐13
Feb-‐14
May-‐14
Aug
-‐14
Nov
-‐14
Feb-‐15
Year-‐ove
r-‐ye
ar %
cha
nge
Trend Line
Feb. 2014 v. Feb. 2015: -3.7%
-‐22.0%
-‐1.9%
0.3%
2.5%
2.7%
3.8%
3.9%
4.0%
4.9%
5.1%
5.2%
6.3%
7.7%
-‐30.0% -‐20.0% -‐10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%
Gasoline Stations
Electronics & Appliance Stores
General Merchandise Stores
Food & Beverage Stores
Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores
Furniture & Home Furn. Stores
Internet, etc. Retailers
Miscellaneous Store Retailers
Health & Personal Care Stores
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers
Food Services & Drinking Places
12-‐month % change
Sales Growth by Type of Business March 2014 v. March 2015*
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
*March 2015 advanced estimate
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through March 2015
Source: Conference Board
-‐1.5%
-‐1.0%
-‐0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5% Aug
-‐07
Nov
-‐07
Feb-‐08
May-‐08
Aug
-‐08
Nov
-‐08
Feb-‐09
May-‐09
Aug
-‐09
Nov
-‐09
Feb-‐10
May-‐10
Aug
-‐10
Nov
-‐10
Feb-‐11
May-‐11
Aug
-‐11
Nov
-‐11
Feb-‐12
May-‐12
Aug
-‐12
Nov
-‐12
Feb-‐13
May-‐13
Aug
-‐13
Nov
-‐13
Feb-‐14
May-‐14
Aug
-‐14
Nov
-‐14
Feb-‐15
One
-‐mon
th Per
cent
Cha
nge
March 2015 = 121.4 where 2010 = 100
Tell-‐Tale Heart
• Economy gained momentum over the course of last year;
• Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like autos;
• The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding monetary policy – that helps;
• The world is not perfect -‐ black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;
• Market is nervous, but perhaps for the wrong reasons (more people benefit from lower oil price than are hurt); and
• Our time in the wilderness is over – the themes of job creation, income growth, fiscal sustainability, private industry, diversification, and One Maryland are back in style.
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