1 Who Counts? United States Federal Statistics Margo Anderson University of Wisconsin -- Milwaukee

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Who Counts? United States Federal Statistics

Margo Anderson

University of Wisconsin -- Milwaukee

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Margo J. Anderson and

Stephen E. Fienberg (1999).

Who Counts? The Politics of Census-Taking in Contemporary America.

Russell Sage Foundation, New York (Revised Paperback Ed, 2001)

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Census EncyclopediaCensus Encyclopedia

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Federal Statistical SystemFederal Statistical System

• Decentralized: Census, BLS, NASS, NCHS, NCES, BJS, etc…..

• Federal: states also provide data through coordinating arrangements: vital statistics

• Chief Statistician (Katherine Wallman) resides in OMB and coordinates the system through “forms clearance.”

• Thus a relatively diverse system.

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Useful DistinctionsUseful Distinctions

• Survey Data: Data collected for research or policy purposes only, usually sampled: CPS, SIPP, ACS

• Administrative Data: Data collected for administrative functions and then reused or reorganized for statistical data analysis: State Unemployment records; property records.

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Useful Distinctions…Useful Distinctions…

• Publicly Collected Data: federal, state or local

• Privately Collected Data:– Trade Associations– University researchers– Private Businesses, including the “data

industry”

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Questions to consider…Questions to consider…

• Who collected the data?

• Who tabulated and published it?

• Why is it published?

• What level of detail is available: – Geography– Breakdown categories– Time series

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A Decennial Census ExampleA Decennial Census Example

• Why is the census…– Important?– Controversial?

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Article 1, Section 2, of the U.S. Constitution

• "Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers….The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

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Importance of the CensusImportance of the Census

• The United States was the first nation in the history of the world to take a population census and use it allocate seats in a national assembly according to population.

• The U.S. has had one of the most demographically dynamic and diverse populations in the history of the world.

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Pitcher Commemorating the Pitcher Commemorating the 1790 Census1790 Census

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Growth of the U.S PopulationGrowth of the U.S Population

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Growth in the Size of the House Growth in the Size of the House of Representativesof Representatives

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Admitting States to the UnionAdmitting States to the Union

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The First Gerrymander, 1812The First Gerrymander, 1812

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Counting vs. EstimationCounting vs. Estimation

• Ongoing debate and controversy in the U.S. and elsewhere.

• Census data are fallible and often fraught with error.

• Census-taking is a statistical process and is enhanced by the use of the statistician’s full arsenal.

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Planning Census 2000Planning Census 2000

• Controversies from 1990 affected 2000 planning: cost and quality of data

• Republicans and Democrats took opposing positions on census methods…….

• Could the differential undercount of minorities be lessened with a sample survey and dual systems estimation?

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Planning...Planning...

• Newt Gingrich sued Bill Clinton over sampling

• The Supreme Court decided (January 1999):– Sampling could not be used for non response

follow up– Sampling could be used for the Accuracy and

Coverage Evaluation Program

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The Advertising CampaignThe Advertising Campaign

• Census participation is a “civic” duty

• Census Director Kenneth Prewitt conducted a highly visible promotional campaign

• Congress appropriated $167 million for a professional advertising campaign

• Census website provided daily updates of response rates (March-April 2000)

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Census 2000 in ProcessCensus 2000 in Process

• A mail census to 120 million addresses (March 2000)

• Response rate: 67% for short form

• The long form controversy– one sixth of households receive long form– radio talk show hosts challenge long form– George W. Bush and Trent Lott sympathize with

those who do not want to fill out the form

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Sampling for Coverage Sampling for Coverage EvaluationEvaluation

• 314,000 households surveyed in summer 2000

• Results were matched to April returns

• Commerce Department (Clinton administration) gave Census Bureau authority on whether to adjust the census

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American Community SurveyAmerican Community Survey

• The long form controversy led to new spotlight on Census Bureau’s proposal to replace the long form in 2010

• ACS was compared to 2000 long form results

• Census Bureau proposes full implementation in 2003

• Funding is still precarious

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Race and Ethnicity in the CensusRace and Ethnicity in the Census

• The rest of the constitutional language:– “Representatives and direct Taxes shall be

apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons.”

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Classification of Race and Classification of Race and EthnicityEthnicity

• “Standards for Maintaining, Collecting, and Presenting Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity,” are promulgated by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB)

• The new classification of race permits respondents to “select one or more” racial group.

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Race and Ethnicity, continuedRace and Ethnicity, continued

• Categories for race:– American Indian or

Alaska Native

– Asian

– Black or African American

– Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander

– White

– Other (on census)Other (on census)

• Categories for ethnicity: – Hispanic or Latino

– Not Hispanic or Latino

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• The Statistical Policy Directive can be tabulated in 63 census racial groups, that is the six main groups plus 57 multiple combinations.

• The 63 groups can be cross classified by Hispanic origin, allowing for 126 racial and ethnic categories.

Race and Ethnicity, continuedRace and Ethnicity, continued

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Apportionment ResultsApportionment Results

• On December 28, 2000, Director Prewitt announced a population of 281,424,177

• An increase of 33 million from 1999

• 13.2% growth rates was fastest in half century

• 12 congressional seats changed

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Winners and LosersWinners and Losers

• Winners– Georgia

– Florida

– Texas

– Arizona

– California

– North Carolina

– Colorado

– Nevada

• Losers– Connecticut

– New York

– Pennsylvania

– Ohio

– Indiana

– Michigan

– Wisconsin

– Oklahoma

– Mississippi

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Redistricting Data and Redistricting Data and Decision not to AdjustDecision not to Adjust

• The redistricting file, PL 94 171, must be released by April 1 of the year after the census (2001)

• The Bush administration opposed sampling and revoked the rule delegating authority to the Census Bureau

• Acting Director Barron announced a decision not to adjust the redistricting file on March 1

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Redistricting, continued...Redistricting, continued...

• ESCAP “determined that they could not conclude that the data for legislative redistricting collected during Census 2000 would be improved by adjustment through the statistical method known as sampling.”

• Dueling Estimates:– Census: 281.4– Demographic Analysis: 279.6– ACE adjusted: 284.7

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Census GeographyCensus Geography

Geographic Category Number in the Category

Mean Population in Category

Region 4 70,350,000Division 9 31,266,667State 50 5,628,000Metropolitan Area 355 792,676Congressional Dist. 435 646,897County 3,141 89,589Tract 66,304 4,244Block Group 211,267 1,332Block 8,262,363 34

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Demographic ResultsDemographic Results

• Race and ethnicity:– 75.1% White

– 12.3% Black or African American

– 3.6% Asian

– .9% American Indian, Alaska Native

– .1% Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander

• Race and ethnicity… – 2.4% two or more

races

– 5.5% some other race

– Hispanic population grew 58% during the 1990s, to 35.3 million.

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What’s Next…..What’s Next…..Estimates of Census Error in the U.S. Population in millions, 2000

Net Error Gross Error

Estimate Pop. N % N % Release Date

2000 Official 281.4 Dec 2000

2000 DA 279.6 -1.8 -.65 Does not measure March 2001 2000 Alternate DA 282.3 .9 .32 Does not measure March 2001 2000 Revised DA 281.8 .34 .12 Does not measure Oct 2001 2000 ACE 284.7 3.3 1.18 9.5-15.1 3.4-5.4 March 2001 2000 ACE Revised 281.6 .169 .06 Not available Oct 2001

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Population Growth: 21Population Growth: 21stst Century EstimatesCentury Estimates

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Congressional Apportment, Congressional Apportment, 2010 Estimate2010 Estimate

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Congressional Apportionment, Congressional Apportionment, 2010 Estimate2010 Estimate

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Congressional Apportionment and the Congressional Apportionment and the Cube Root of PopulationCube Root of Population

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Population Change, 2000-06Population Change, 2000-06

Census 2000 ACS 2006 Percent ChangeWisconsin 5,363,675 5,556,506 3.60Whites 4,769,857 4,859,689 1.88Afridan American 304,460 328,376 7.86Hispanic 192,921 256,304 32.85Housing Units 2,321,144 2,532,958 9.13

City of Milwaukee 596,974 563,079 -5.68Whites 298,379 245,565 -17.70African American 222,933 222,999 0.03Hispanic 71,646 84,115 17.40Housing Units 249,225 252,175 1.18Vacant Housing Units 17,037 23,848 39.98

Milwaukee County 940,164 915,097 -2.67Whites 616,973 556,460 -9.81African American 231,157 241,179 4.34Hispanic 82,406 103,873 26.05Housing Units 400,903 408,160 1.81