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Narjess TeyssierICAO ICAO
Chief Economic Analysis & Policy SectionChief Economic Analysis & Policy Section
Montréal 29 September 2010
Narjess TeyssierICAO ICAO
Chief Economic Analysis & Policy SectionChief Economic Analysis & Policy Section
Montréal 29 September 2010
ContentContent
Data
Trends
Forecasts
Impact on stakeholders
Monitoring air transport development: Statistics, analysis and forecastsMonitoring air transport development: Statistics, analysis and forecasts
FORECASTINGFORECASTINGMARKET
ANALYSESMARKET
ANALYSES
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STATISTICSSTATISTICS
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Regional traffic overview for 2009 Regional traffic overview for 2009
North AmericaTraffic: -3.9%Capacity: -4.7% Load Factor: +0.7 Pt
Europe Traffic: -3.9%Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: +0.3 Pt
Middle East
Asia PacificTraffic: -0.2%Capacity: -0.9% Load Factor: +0.6 Pt
Latin America Traffic: 0.9%Capacity: 2.2% Load Factor: -0.9 Pt
Africa Traffic: -3.9%Capacity: -4.3% Load Factor: -0.7 Pt
Middle EastTraffic: 9.1%Capacity: 11.9% Load Factor: -1.9 Pt
Load Factor: +0.6 Pt
World Traffic: -2.0%Capacity: -2.2% Load Factor: +0.2 Pt
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Tra
Billio
LCCsNon Scheduled carriersLegacy carriers
Low Cost Carriers progression Low Cost Carriers progression
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
affic
ons RPK
�!�"�������
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Market shares* achievedMarket shares* achieved
North America Africa *
3%
International passenger International passenger traffictraffic**** Domestic passenger Domestic passenger
traffictraffic****Africa *
International traffic represents 60% of the total passenger trafficInternational traffic represents 60% of the total passenger traffic
* Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region
Europe 41%
Latin America4%
North America 17%
Asia Pacific 25%
3%
Middle East 10%
North America
55%
Africa *1%
Middle East 1%
Latin America 5%
Europe 8%
Asia Pacific 30%
**Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometre
Traffic recovery started in 2010, despite the volcanic ash impactTraffic recovery started in 2010, despite the volcanic ash impact
North America
World
Forecast 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2012
4.3%
Regional traffic* growth forecastsRegional traffic* growth forecasts
Source: ICAO
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Latin America
Middle East
RPKs Growth in %
1999-2009 average growth
*Traffic of airlines registered in each region expressed in RPKs
Forecasting : basis of any effective planningForecasting : basis of any effective planning
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�State of global economy (GDP growth)�Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields)�State of global economy (GDP growth)�Airline ticket price. (measured in Yields)
Air travel demand drivers
20
Tra
ffic
& y
ield
gro
wth
in %
4
5
Traffic growth Real Yield growthReal GDP growth Sep 2010
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Tra
ffic
& y
ield
gro
wth
in %
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
GD
P g
row
th in
%
Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight
450500550600
1979
: Ind
ex B
ase
100
World Real GDPWorld Passenger trafficWorld Cargo traffic
Air transport Air transport vsvs Economic growthEconomic growth
100150200250300350400450
1979
19811983198519
871989199119
931995199719
992001200320
0520
072009
1979
: Ind
ex B
ase
100
Source: ICAO, IHS/ Global Insight
Factors promoting air traffic growthFactors promoting air traffic growthFactors promoting air traffic growthFactors promoting air traffic growth
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%������������� &��!���$�����
ICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalizationICAN: ICAO forum for liberalization
40%
50%
60%
40%
50%Number of frequenciesNumber of country-pair routes
' ����������������� ���(���( ��)���
Air transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangementsAir transport conducted under liberal arrangements
4��1!��"��� ��!���&������
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1995 1999 2004 20090%
10%
20%
30%
�!�"���������
Number of LCCs : 13Deregulation : 1978
Number of LCCs : 33Network carriers
79%
LCCs
21%
Network carriers
86%
LCCs
14%
Network carriers
79%
LCCs
21%
Number of LCCs : 48
Deregulation : 1987- 1997
Liberalization: a necessary frame for Low Cost Carriers development
Deregulation : accelerating
Number of LCCs (Africa and Middle East) : 10
Deregulation : uneven
Number of LCCs : 10
Deregulation : in progress
LCCs development by region
79%
Network carriers
76%
LCCs
24%
Network carriers
91%
LCCs
9%
Source: ICAO
Toward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines� mergers and acquisitionsToward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines� mergers and acquisitions
3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic
Most well-known Non Aligned airlines
The new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodologyThe new ICAO forecasting methodology
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Emerging markets lead the recovery
Favoring the expansion of some regional air travel marketsFavoring the expansion of some regional air travel markets
Real GDP growth change in % Real GDP growth change in %
� China: 586 B$� India: 8.1 B$� China: 586 B$� India: 8.1 B$
Economic Stimulus planEconomic Stimulus plan
Source: IHS Global Insight, Sep 2010
*BRIC: Brazil Russia India China
Rea
l GD
P g
row
th c
hang
e in
%
Rea
l GD
P g
row
th c
hang
e in
%
China & India lead Emerging Markets and the BRIC in Real GDP growthChina & India lead Emerging Markets and the BRIC in Real GDP growth
Top ten traffic flows in 2030Top ten traffic flows in 2030
20-Year Growth % % World RPKs2.6% 15.0%7.9% 10.7%4.3% 7.4%2.6% 5.7%6.7% 4.1%6.7% 4.1%5.3% 3.6%7.8% 3.5%5.0% 3.3%5.9% 3.1%9.0% 2.9%
10000
12000
14000
Wor
ld tr
affic
in B
illio
n R
PK
sLong-term traffic forecast resultsLong-term traffic forecast results
High Scenario
Forecasts
Most Likely scenario������� ��
������� ���������
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Wor
ld tr
affic
in B
illio
n R
PK
s
Low scenario
History
Source: ICAO
������� �� �=����
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Regional* passenger traffic forecastsRegional* passenger traffic forecasts
Region Growth2010-2030
Share2030
Growth2010-2030
Share2030
North America 3.9 14 2.6 40
Europe 4.3 37 1.7 5
Pax Traffic International (%) Domestic (%) Total (%)
Growth2010-2030
Share2030
3 23
4.1 25Europe 4.3 37 1.7 5
Asia/Pacific 5.7 32 7.1 47
Latin America 6.1 5 5.3 6
Africa 4.7 3 4.8 1
Middle East 5.2 9 4.8 1
WORLD 4.8 100 4.4 100
*Traffic of airlines registered in each region expressed in RPKs growth and market shares
4.1 25
6.3 38
5.8 5.5
4.7 2.5
5.2 6
4.7 100
Aircraft movements’ forecast methodologyAircraft movements’ forecast methodology
�� Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating capacities and average distance stage length :capacities and average distance stage length :
�� Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements Traffic forecasts converted into forecasts of aircraft movements assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating assumptions on future average load factor, average aircraft seating capacities and average distance stage length :capacities and average distance stage length :
Available seat-kilometres =Revenue passenger-
kilometresAverage load factorAverage load factor
Aircraft-kilometres =
Available seat-kilometres
Average aircraft seating capacity
Aircraft movements =
Aircraft-kilometres
Average stage length
2030 Aircraft movements’ forecast2030 Aircraft movements’ forecast
Africa, 2.0%
World total aircraft movements in 2030: 51.708
Asia Pacific, 31.7%
Europe, 23.3%
Latin America, 7.7%
Middle East, 2.9%
North America, 32.3%
Orders and Deliveries of Boeing and Airbus , 1975-2009
2000
2500
3000
Nu
mb
er o
f Air
craf
t
Orders1473
1095
2871
Strong backlog for the major aircraft manufacturersStrong backlog for the major aircraft manufacturers
0
500
1000
1500
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989199
1199
3199
5199
7199
9200
1200
3200
5200
7200
9201
1201
3201
5
Nu
mb
er o
f Air
craf
t
Deliveries
715
1473
443
Source: aircraft manufacturers
DeliveriesForecasts
Need to monitor closely any potential impact on Safety as 60% of aircraft replacement are for growth
979
452
Consolidating various ICAO data sourcesConsolidating various ICAO data sources
� 2008 State Letter requesting current and projected number of Pilots , Mechanics and Air Traffic controllers, plus corresponding Training Capacities
� SAAQ of ICAOs Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme(USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing,
� 2008 State Letter requesting current and projected number of Pilots , Mechanics and Air Traffic controllers, plus corresponding Training Capacities
� SAAQ of ICAOs Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme(USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, (USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, qualifications and training
� ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form D Fleet and Personnel
� Final consolidated results obtained through reconciliation of discrepancies and variances
� Check accuracy of consolidated reported data through the personnel/fleet ratio methodology
(USOAP) contains questions on personnel licensing, qualifications and training
� ICAO Air Transport Reporting Form D Fleet and Personnel
� Final consolidated results obtained through reconciliation of discrepancies and variances
� Check accuracy of consolidated reported data through the personnel/fleet ratio methodology
*SAAQ: State Aviation Activity Questionnaire
2010 Licensed aviation personnel population2010 Licensed aviation personnel population
NORTH AMERICAICAO
Pilots 290211Mechanics 355009
EUROPEICAO
Pilots 85306Mechanics 85183ATCOs 27401
ASIA PACIFICICAO
Pilots 50344
MIDDLE EASTICAO
Pilots 9202Mechanics 355009ATCOs 19735
LATIN AMERICAICAO
Pilots 24065Mechanics 25353ATCOs 2047
Pilots 50344Mechanics 78609ATCOs 14081
Pilots 9202Mechanics 14866ATCOs 1996
AFRICAICAO
Pilots 4258Mechanics 21906ATCOs
WORLDICAO
Pilots 463386Mechanics 580926ATCOs 67024
80% of the States have a mandatory retirement age of 65 years for pilots
1764
Source: ICAO
Future pilots requirements* vs training capacitiesFuture pilots requirements* vs training capacities
EuropePilots Capacity
ICAO 15 552 7 955
North AmericaPilots Needs Capacity
ICAO 10 449 27 655Middle East
Pilots CapacityICAO 2 458 860
Most likely scenario
*Estimate of average annual needs for 2010 to 2030 period based on various world fleet categories;: Regional and business jets, Turboprops, Single aisle, Twin aisles and Freighters
Training capacity is based on current figures without any incremental effect due to planned additional capacities
Asia / PacificPilots Capacity
ICAO 13 983 4 935
AfricaPilots Capacity
ICAO 3 814 1 010
Pilots capacityICAO 6 250 1 945
Latin America
Pilots Capacity
ICAO 52 506 44 360
World
Source: ICAO preliminary figures
ICAO vision for Next Generation Aviation ProfessionalsICAO vision for Next Generation Aviation Professionals
�� The need for reliable statisticsThe need for reliable statistics
�� The «The « Best and the BrightestBest and the Brightest »»
�� The need for reliable statisticsThe need for reliable statistics
�� The «The « Best and the BrightestBest and the Brightest »»
�� Facilitating the use of competencyFacilitating the use of competency--based based approachesapproaches
�� Removing regulatory obstaclesRemoving regulatory obstacles
�� A coordinating mechanism is requiredA coordinating mechanism is required
�� Facilitating the use of competencyFacilitating the use of competency--based based approachesapproaches
�� Removing regulatory obstaclesRemoving regulatory obstacles
�� A coordinating mechanism is requiredA coordinating mechanism is required
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© ICAO All rights reserved.
This document and all informationcontained herein is the sole property ofICAO. No intellectual property rights aregranted by the delivery of this document orthe disclosure of its content. Thisthe disclosure of its content. Thisdocument shall not be reproduced ordisclosed to a third party without priorpermission of ICAO. This document and itscontent shall not be used for any purposeother than that for which it is supplied.
The statements made herein are based onthe mentioned assumptions and areexpressed in good faith. Where thesupporting grounds for these statementsare not shown, ICAO will be pleased toexplain the basis thereof.
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