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1960s
Cognitive Science
Emerges 1970s
Daniel Kahneman & Amos Kversky’s Nobel-winning psychology work
2013
Chip & Dan
Heath’s
Decisive
2008
Dan Ariely’s
Predictably
Irrational
@laurex
1930s
P&G Brand Men
1950s-1970s
Toyota Kaizen
& Genchi Genbutsu
2001
Agile Methodology
1960s
Cognitive Science
Emerges 1970s
Daniel Kahneman & Amos Kversky’s Nobel-winning psychology work
2013
Chip & Dan
Heath’s
Decisive
2008
Dan Ariely’s
Predictably
Irrational
2008
Lean Startup
@laurex
Overconfidence
Confirmation Bias
Short-term emotion & the Recency Bias
Narrow Framing
Loss Aversion
Availability Heuristic
The Law of Small Numbers & The Clustering Illusion
Correlation vs. Causation & the Fundamental Attribution Error
COGNITIVE BIASES
@laurex
Woah, it’s amazing how much the articles in my Medium feed support my ideas! I must be on the
right track.
@laurex
There are really only two options: release a new feature this month or fix the bugs in the
old feature.
@laurex
Even though no one is using this feature, if we
just improve it, it could be SO COOL. Because we’ve already gotten this far.
@laurex
Hey, after we released our last feature, we got
a complaint from a customer. We should fix the issue right away!
@laurex
BETTER METHODS TO MAKE DECISIONS
The 5 Whys - Root Cause Analysis
Reality Testing / Data - MVP, A/B Tests, Landing Pages
Get some distance - collect information about “what typically happens in a situation like ours” instead of what you want to happen or fear will happen
Prepare to be wrong (or at least incomplete)- adopt the opposite viewpoint to the one you have and try to find the merits in it
Pre-mortem
Vanishing Options
@laurex
THE FOUR ESSENTIALS OF LESS BIASED PRODUCT DECISION MAKING
MVP
User Research
Team Intelligence
Metrics & Counter Metrics
@laurex
MINIMUM VALUABLE PERCEPTION
Sunk cost bias
Loss Aversion
Narrow framing (by testing different ideas)
Confirmation Bias
Preparing to be wrong
@laurex
MINIMUM VALUABLE PERCEPTION
Sunk cost bias
Loss Aversion
Narrow framing (by testing different ideas)
Confirmation Bias
Preparing to be wrong
@laurex
MINIMUM VALUABLE PERCEPTION
Sunk cost bias
Loss Aversion
Narrow framing (by testing different ideas)
Confirmation Bias
Preparing to be wrong
@laurex
MINIMUM VALUABLE PERCEPTION
Sunk cost bias
Loss Aversion
Narrow framing (by testing different ideas)
Confirmation Bias
Preparing to be wrong
@laurex
USER RESEARCH
Resist Confirmation Bias by asking open-ended questions
Avoid the Availability Heuristic by talking to users you don’t know
Mistrust a small sample size but find patterns with just a few users
Combat Narrow Framing by using “and” instead of “or”
Test Reality by finding out what users are doing now
@laurex
USER RESEARCH
Resist Confirmation Bias by asking open-ended questions
Avoid the Availability Heuristic by talking to users you don’t know
Mistrust a small sample size (The Law of Small Numbers) but find patterns with just a few users
Combat Narrow Framing by using “and” instead of “or”
Test Reality by finding out what users are doing now
@laurex
USER RESEARCH
Resist Confirmation Bias by asking open-ended questions
Avoid the Availability Heuristic by talking to users you don’t know
Mistrust a small sample size but find patterns with just a few users
Combat Narrow Framing by using “and” instead of “or”
Test Reality by finding out what users are doing now
@laurex
Test Reality by using Velocity, Throughput and Code Quality to measure Team Capacity.
Tripwire: anonymous team polls
Avoid the Bandwagon Effect with polling
Tripwire: setting internal deadlines or milestones@laurex
Test Reality by using Velocity, Throughput and Code Quality to measure Team Capacity.
Tripwire: anonymous team polls
Avoid the Bandwagon Effect with polling
Tripwire: setting internal deadlines or milestones@laurex
Test Reality by using Velocity, Throughput and Code Quality to measure Team Capacity.
Tripwire: anonymous team polls
Avoid the Bandwagon Effect with polling
Tripwire: setting internal deadlines or milestones@laurex
RESOURCESPredictably Irrational - Dan Ariely
Thinking Fast & Slow - Daniel Kahneman Decisive, Made to Stick- Chip & Dan Heath
Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful - Gabriel Weinberg Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
The Four Villains of Product Management Four steps to more Decisive product decisions
Gib Biddle on Netflix Product Strategy
@laurex
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