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Talk presented by Daniel James at GDC Worlds in Motion Summit 2009.3.23. Daniel is CEO of Three Rings, creators of Puzzle Pirates and Whirled. This talk is an introduction to metrics for MMOs and contains real data from Puzzle Pirates and Whirled.
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Metrics for a Brave New Whirled
Daniel James | CEO | Three Rings
www.threerings.net
daniel@threerings.net
What is Whirled?
Player-created Flash virtual world
Rooms, avatars, toys, games, music, etc.
Social network ‘geography’ (home rooms == profiles, etc.)
Flash single and multi-player games to accrue ‘Coins’ (‘play money’)
Shop for player creations, comments, ratings, etc.
‘Bars’, hard currency bought for $$$
Third ‘cash-out’ currency ‘Bling’ earned by creators on Bar sales
Small, engaged beta community ~20,000 weekly registered active
Whirled Simultaneous Players
Hourly Simultaneous Players
What is Puzzle Pirates?Casual MMO
Broad demographics: Ages 7-70, ‘Double Bump’, 50/50 Male/Female
Signed Java Applet, ~60mb, installs from web
Subscriptions since launch Oct 2003
Virtual currency business model since Feb 2005
2007 Revenues $4M, ~$3M virtual currency ‘Doubloons’
Puzzle Pirates MetricsConversion (from landing to registration): ~5%
Retention (returning after one month): ~35%,~25% into month 2
Paid Customer Conversion (registration to revenue): ~3.5%
Average Customer Lifetime Value : ~$120
Average Registrant ‘Value’: $4.20
Registered Players since 2004: 4,200,312
Customers since 2004: 90,197 ‘Doubloons’, 68,807 Subscription
Current active players: ~110,000
Active paying players: ~30,000
Average Hours played per player per month: 21
Moar Reading
• Andrew Chen
www.andrewchenblog.com • Eric Ries
startuplessonslearned.blogspot.com • Slides for this Talk and moar links
thefloggingwillcontinue.com
(mo)AARRR!
• Dave McClure’s awesomeness:http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2007/09/startup-metrics.html
• Updated:http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2008/07/oct-2nd-starton.html
The Funnel that goes AARRR
• Acquisition
• Activation
• Retention
• Referral
• Revenue
Acquisition Paths
• Ads (Networks, Google SEM)• Search (SEO) - a problem for rich apps• Referral Emails (‘Virality’)• Facebook, Myspace etc. Notifications• Affiliate Links and Revshare Deals• Game ‘Sponsorship’ Clicks• Organic ‘Shows up’ Traffic
Cost of Acquisition Dashboard
• Not all these numbers are real, but they are representative
• CPM/CPC/CPA washes out to a CPA• Whilst optimising and changing flow, CPC or
CPM may make sense. • Once optimised, CPA is lower risk for buyer!
Source CPM CPC CPA Ad imps CTR Clicks Signup % Users Cost CPA
Ad Network 1 $0.50 ? ? 700,000 5% 35,000 $17,500 $0.50
Ad Network 2 $0.30 20,000,000 0.10% 20,000 20% 4,000 $6,000 $1.50
Adsense $0.08 50,205,778 0.33% 163,871 6.8% 11,126 $1,265 $1.14
Viral Coefficient• For every new player acquired, how many new
players arrive via Referral channels• If > 1 then exponential growth. Ye win!• Many ‘viral’ mechanics are ‘crafty’ e.g. email scrapers
in registration process, FB games with invite incentives
• Facebook still highly viral, but most apps supplement viral channels with paid ads
• Myspace reportedly relies more on paid acquisition• FB invites work well for ‘frivolous’ Apps, but is there a
conflict with ‘alternate persona’ games with depth? Do ‘fantasy’ players want to invite their real friends?
Activation Metrics
• Site Visitors -> Playing Experience (~25%)– Different Landing Pages, Straight into Game etc.– Forced Registration is efficient– But, Retention works out similar to ‘play first’
• Registration Conversion (~6% of visitors)• Active Players - logged in during the period• Simultaneous Players• Session Time (~20 minutes PP / Whirled)
The Whirled Funnel
Puzzle Pirates Registrations
(Different colours are different sources)
Retention MetricsRetention - % of new visitors who return to the site within some period
Churn - % of total players who leave (usually monthly)
Whirled:
~2% Retention, 1st Visit -> Return after one Week
~23% of Registered Players return after one week
Retention CohortsCohort 12/21/08 12/28/08 1/4/09 1/11/09 1/18/09 1/25/09 2/1/09 2/8/09 2/15/09
12/21/08 29% 16% 14% 14% 12% 10% 9% 9% 9%12/28/08 25% 15% 13% 12% 10% 9% 9% 9%
1/4/09 27% 18% 14% 12% 12% 11% 10%1/11/09 31% 18% 13% 12% 11% 10%1/18/09 29% 16% 12% 11% 10%1/25/09 28% 17% 13% 12%
2/1/09 29% 18% 15%2/8/09 35% 21%
2/15/09 33%
• A new Cohort shows up each week
• Table shows % retained week-after-week
• These numbers are not ideal!
Improving Retention
• Sticky Fun!
• Daily Return incentives (gift box)
• Email: Notifications, Feeds, Newsletters– Validate your emails, check your spam
Referral Channels
• Word of Mouth: Organic ‘Shows Up’• Registration ‘Find Friends’ Email• Game Invites: Email, FB Connect, IM• URL cut n paste• Trophy Notifications via FB• Share Games via URLs, FB, Myspace etc. • Share and Embed Rooms
Revenue Metrics• Conversion to Pay - usually % of registered players who pay
• Average Revenue per Active Player (ARPU) - total revenue / active players, monthly
• Paying Players / Customers - those who Purchase in that month, OR Active Users that have ever Purchased? Currency purchases are often bursty. Let’s call Paying Players those who bought in the month, and Ever Paid Players those who have ever paid
• Percentage of Paying Players - Paying Players / Active Players
• Percentage of Ever Paid Players - Paid Players / Active Players
• Average Revenue per Paying Player per Month (ARPPU) - purchase amount for those who bought in the month. This is around $50 for many microtransaction games, inc. Puzzle Pirates
• Average Revenue per Ever Paid Player per Month (AREPPU) - this is usually less, around $10 for Puzzle Pirates, as many active paid players do not necessarily purchase in that month
Mo’ Revenue Metrics: Lifetime Value
• Customer Lifetime - average life of a paying customer in months. For PP ~14 months
• Average Paying Player Lifetime Value (often called LTV) - total earned from a customer over lifetime
= AREPPU x Lifetime (for PP this is ~$125)
• Average Registrant Value - this is the critical value to compare to your CPA
= AREPPU x Lifetime x Conversion to Pay
For PP = $125 x 3.5% = 4.37%
Whirled Economy OverviewCurrency and value:
Free / Time Currency, rewards for gameplay (Coins)
Hard / Cash Currency, $$$ (Bars, Doubloons)
Creator earn-out Currency for Whirled (Bling)
Pricing
Player-controlled with some guidelines based on creator rating
Modest listing fees in Coins
Price in Coins to earn Coins, or Bars to earn Bling
Listed Items to Date
21,000 Avatars, 31,000 Furniture items, 20,000 Backdrops, 700 Toys, 3,600 Pets, 270 Games, 25,000 Tunes, 28,000 Images
Good Economic Management
• Balance your soft currency faucets / drains• Optimize Pricing• Refresh and Merchandise Items• Limited Edition and Rare Goods• Consumable Items / Mini-Subscriptions
Economy: Soft Currency
Economy: Hard Currency
Economy: What Sells (Coins)?
Exchange of Coins and Bars
Players / Purchasers by AgeWhirled Players + Buyers - Feb 2009
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
90s 80s 70s 60s older none
decade born
players
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
buyers
players
buyers
Spending per Purchaser
Spending by AgePuzzle Pirates + Whirled - Spending Distribution By Age
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
90s 80s 70s 60s older
decade born
spending/customer
PP avg $Whirled avg $
Item Sales Distribution (PP)
QuickTime™ and a decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Productsmix of Vanity (clothes, furniture)
and Utility (ships, swords)
Coin shop,Mostly personal utility,
some gifting, all recurring (mini-subscriptions) Portraits, vanity,
often groupsRooms / Houses, sometimes group
Customer Development
• Develop Customers whilst developing Product• Ship early, track player behavior• Iterate against player behavior and rapidly
revise product to meet customer expectations• Be prepared to completely re-tool product if
customers don’t want it!• IMVU is the case study• Reading: ‘Four Steps to the Epiphany’ by Steve
Blank http://www.steveblank.com/
Billing Bits
• Payment Breakdown:Credit card (70%, ~2% costs)
Paypal (15%, ~2% costs)
SMS (~5%, mobillcash, ~10% cost, ~50% carrier markups)
Pre-paid Card (~5%, Target via GMG, >20% costs)
Others via PaybyCash etc. (~5%, costs vary)
New: Offers via Peanutlabs (too early to say)
• Fraud, Spending Limits• Don’t build, but use a provider
Twofish, Gambit, Fatfoogoo, Social Gold, Peanutlabs, Offerpal, Super Rewards, Zong, Vindicia, Aria, etc.
That’s all Folks!
Slides going up on the blog later today:
http://www.theflogginwillcontinue.com/
Please to RSS!
daniel@threerings.net
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