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"Ethiopians, Persians, Romans and the Quest for Dominance in World Trade" This was for a guest presentation I made for the UCLA History Dept., February 2012. I draw parallels between the Late Roman (the "Byzantine" phase) Empire of the 6th century, and the USA of the early 21st century. Here, I also pose a closing question to the audience: "What would Roman Emperor Justinian do (re: Persia / Iran) today?"
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Ethiopians, Persians, Romans,
& the Quest for Dominance in World Trade
Blaine D. Pope, Ph.D.
History 10A, UCLA
Background of presenter (Blaine Pope)
Overview of Late Roman (“Byzantine”) Empire
Imperative to control matter-energy resources
(“ecological-economics”)
Assumption: Treat all wars as “resource wars”
Comparison: USA and Roman Empire
History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 2 23-Feb-12
History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 3 23-Feb-12
Rooted in world-systems analysis
The Earth’s bio-geo-physical systems
Human-built energy systems or “regimes” (focus on “oil”)
Human perception, cosmology, culture
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History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 5 23-Feb-12
Citizen of the City of Rome
Citizen of the Empire of Rome
- Western Roman Empire
- Eastern Roman (“Byzantine”) Empire
Culture related to the Civilization of Rome
- e.g., “Roman Law” or “Roman Catholicism”
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From the Roman perspective . . . their system of disciplined, trained military forces gave them an immense advantage over their barbarian enemies on the frontiers of the Empire.
Quite simply, [for a long time] the
Romans did not have to innovate
or adapt . . . INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Military Adaptation in War (2009) Chapter 2, “The Historical Framework of Adaptation” By Williamson Murray
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The Roman system, however, began to break down
in the third century AD, when a combination of
economic problems, civil and political strife
involving the legions, and disease combined to
erode the Empire’s strength and the army’s
discipline. That discipline had represented the
glue essential to Roman military superiority for a
span of over six centuries.
INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES
Military Adaptation in War (2009)
Chapter 2, “The Historical Framework of Adaptation”
By Williamson Murray
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23-Feb-12 History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 22
The irony: the material factors that had
previously made the Western Roman Empire so
powerful were, in the end, the same factors
that contributed to its decline.
The abundant forest resources, upon which the Western
Romans had become so dependent, began to go into decline
all around them.
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Source: http://moviescreenshot.blogspot.com/2011/08/gladiator-movie-screenshots-and.html
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23-Feb-12 History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 25
Kept at 130-160 degrees Fahrenheit
Small bath: 228,000lb wood / year (min.)
Constant running (24/7; also a key “political
benchmark” for emperors)
Guild (corp.),w/60 ships for obtaining bath-
heating wood.
Sources:
h2g2. “The Role of Deforestation in the Fall of Rome,” http://h2g2.com/dna/h2g2/A2184473
Chew, S. (2007). The Recurring Dark Ages: Ecological Stress, Climate Changes, and System
Transformation. New York: Altamira
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Building with Wood
Wood for Heating (e.g., public baths)
Wood-use in Industry
Felling Trees for Agriculture
Deforestation in Warfare
Source: h2g2. “The Role of Deforestation in the Fall of Rome,” http://h2g2.com/dna/h2g2/A2184473
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Source: Rome Reborn—A Digital Model of Ancient Rome.
http://www.romereborn.virginia.edu/_images/gallery-2-1/Valley_Colosseum_medium.jpg
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Deforestation
Soil erosion (in surrounding hills)
Flooding (in low-lying areas)
Disruption of water supply
Siltation of coastal areas
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“[On the Italian peninsula, ] soil erosion also
carried sediments to collect in the low-lying
areas, where marshlands formed as result.
The spread of malaria and other swamp-bred
illnesses were predominant during the [late]
Roman period.”
Sing Chew, World Ecological Degradation: Accumulation, Urbanization, Deforestation,
3000 B.C.— A.D. 2000 (2001)
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“Aksumite intellectual history . . . illustrates a recurrent
influence of trade on world history: trade routes are not only
the conduits of goods from one part of the world to another,
but also the conduits of ideas.”
Christopher Ehret (2002), in The Civilizations of Africa.(p. 291)
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See Ehret, Civilizations of Africa (2002), p. 291
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Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Church_Our_Lady_Mary_Zion_Axum_Ethio.jpg
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“There had, from of old, been a certain market in China for glass,
enamelled (sic.) work, and fine stuffs from Syria; but whatever
exports found their way thither or to India and Arabia were far from
being a set-off to the supplies of silk . . . .
The balance of trade was, therefore, decidedly against the Empire,
and there was a constant drain of gold to the East.”
Bury, J.B. History of the Later Roman Empire: From the Death of Theodosius I to the
Death of Justinian
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Source: Gladiator (2000)
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A general problem of energy resource depletion
The peak in global oil production
Production ever more likely to decline, hence the “peak”
Peak Oil means not 'running out of oil', but 'running out of cheap oil'
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“The world will soon run out of conventionally
produced cheap oil.”
“…civilization as we know it will not survive,
unless we can find a way to live without fossil
fuels.”
Professor David Goodstein, Ph.D. (Physics)
Vice-Provost, California Institute of Technology
in Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil (2004)
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23-Feb-12 History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 54
Oil Depletion Curve, 1930 to 2002
(USA / Actual)
• “Most of the governments of Europe fell during this period, victims of the consequences of the oil crisis on their economies.”
• U.S. went into deep recession. New York City went
broke by 1975.
• “…for the less developed economies of the world, the impact of an overnight price increase of 400 per cent in their primary energy source was staggering.”
William Engdahl, A Century of War:
Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order (2004)
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,00019,419
2,295 1,930
2,505 1,691
2,797
1,704
4,845
7,999
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“…oil prices will steadily increase as world
production approaches its peak.”
“The doubling of oil prices in the past couple of years is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future.”
“Peak oil is at hand…”
“Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.”
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The US and European Union are seeking at
all costs to establish supply lines across the
southern Caucasus, the Black Sea, and
Turkey, thus avoiding Russian and Iranian
territory . . .
Source: UNEP, Balkan Vital Graphics, p. 18
http://www.grida.no/files/publications/balkan-vital-graphics/balkans-vital-graphic-full.pdf
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Source: http://www.thefinancialmarketnews.com/don%E2%80%99t-get-it-twisted-we-are-already-at-war-with-iran/iran-siege-map
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Source: http://www.juancole.com/images/2011/12/usbasesme.jpg
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Initially seek means to “neutralize” Iran
Increase size of military (budget)
Reach out to potential military allies (e.g., Axumite-
Ethiopian Empire)
Reduce expenditures on other gov’t programs
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Instead of paying Persian enemies to import silk, Byzantine-Romans eventually found a way to produce silk at home.
“Import substitution”
Much cheaper than war (blood & treasure)
Much better for domestic economy (+ value added, circulation of money)
Cleaner and “greener” than arms production & war
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23-Feb-12 History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 71
Sixth century Roman Empire had many common
features w/21st century “American Empire”
Suffering effects of significant resource constraints
Sought to shape future based on past conditions
Dependent on highly valued international commodity
(Rome = silk / US = oil)
Persia (Iran) profited from that dependency
Sought geo-strategic counter-weight—in Africa
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This far, unlike Romans, Americans have yet to develop and deploy a viable, domestic alternative.
We’re still paying “Persia” (for oil).
Ergo, thus far, 21st century Americans are behind 6th century Romans, in implementing import substitution.
Romans reinvented themselves—many times over. Can the Americans?
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Büntgen, U., et al. ( 2011). “2500 Years of European Climate Variability
and Human Susceptibility.” Science Magazine, 2011, from
www.sciencexpress.org
Burry, J. B. (1923). History of the Later Roman Empire from the Death of
Theodosius I to the Death of Justinian (AD 395 to AD 565) [Kindle
Edition]
Catton, W. R. (1980). Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary
Change. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press
Chew, S. (2001). World Ecological Degradation: Accumulation,
Urbanization, and Deforestation, 3000 B.C. - A.D. 2000. Walnut Creek:
Alta Mira Press
Chew, S. (2007). The Recurring Dark Ages: Ecological Stress, Climate
Changes, and System Transformation. New York: Altamira
23-Feb-12 History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 76
Chew, S. (2008). Ecological Futures: What History Can Teach Us. New York: Alta Mira Press
Chew, S. (2007). The Recurring Dark Ages: Ecological Stress, Climate Changes, and System Transformation. New York: Altamira
H2g2. “The Role of Deforestation in the Fall of Rome,” http://h2g2.com/dna/h2g2/A2184473
Engdahl, W. (2004). A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order. Ann Arbor, MI: Pluto Press.
Ehret, C. (2002). Northeastern, West, and North Africa: The Middle Centuries, 300-1450 The Civilizations of Africa: A History to 1800. Charlottesville, VA: University of Virginia Press.
Goodstein, D. (2004). Out of Gas: The end of the Age of Oil. New York: W.W. Norton and Company, Inc.
Herrin, J. (2007). Byzantium: The Surprising Life of a Medieval Empire. London: Penguin Books, Ltd
23-Feb-12 History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 77
Norwich, J. J. (1992). Byzantium: The Early Years. New York: Alfred A.
Knopf
Pope, B. D. (2007). Petroleum Depletion, Economic Development, and
the Concept of Terracentrism. Doctoral Dissertation, Fielding Graduate
University, Santa Barbara, CA
http://gradworks.umi.com/34/74/3474283.html
Tainter, J. A. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press
UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2007). Major oil pipeline projects. UNEP/Grid
Arendal: Environmental Knowledge for Change, Maps and Graphics, from
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/major-oil-pipeline-projects
END
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