Justinian's Challenge: Ethiopian-Roman Alliance, 6th Century, CE

Ethiopians, Persians, Romans,

& the Quest for Dominance in World Trade

Blaine D. Pope, Ph.D.

History 10A, UCLA

Background of presenter (Blaine Pope)

Overview of Late Roman (“Byzantine”) Empire

Imperative to control matter-energy resources

(“ecological-economics”)

Assumption: Treat all wars as “resource wars”

Comparison: USA and Roman Empire

History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 2 23-Feb-12


Rooted in world-systems analysis

The Earth’s bio-geo-physical systems

Human-built energy systems or “regimes” (focus on “oil”)

Human perception, cosmology, culture

23-Feb-12 History 10-A, B. Pope for C. Luchembe, UCLA Winter 2012 4


Citizen of the City of Rome

Citizen of the Empire of Rome

- Western Roman Empire

- Eastern Roman (“Byzantine”) Empire

Culture related to the Civilization of Rome

- e.g., “Roman Law” or “Roman Catholicism”















From the Roman perspective . . . their system of disciplined, trained military forces gave them an immense advantage over their barbarian enemies on the frontiers of the Empire.

Quite simply, [for a long time] the

Romans did not have to innovate

or adapt . . . INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES Military Adaptation in War (2009) Chapter 2, “The Historical Framework of Adaptation” By Williamson Murray


The Roman system, however, began to break down

in the third century AD, when a combination of

economic problems, civil and political strife

involving the legions, and disease combined to

erode the Empire’s strength and the army’s

discipline. That discipline had represented the

glue essential to Roman military superiority for a

span of over six centuries.

INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES

Military Adaptation in War (2009)

Chapter 2, “The Historical Framework of Adaptation”

By Williamson Murray



The irony: the material factors that had

previously made the Western Roman Empire so

powerful were, in the end, the same factors

that contributed to its decline.

The abundant forest resources, upon which the Western

Romans had become so dependent, began to go into decline

all around them.


Source: http://moviescreenshot.blogspot.com/2011/08/gladiator-movie-screenshots-and.html



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cyark_Weissenburg_Reconstruction.jpg

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cyark_Weissenburg_Reconstruction.jpg

Kept at 130-160 degrees Fahrenheit

Small bath: 228,000lb wood / year (min.)

Constant running (24/7; also a key “political

benchmark” for emperors)

Guild (corp.),w/60 ships for obtaining bath-

heating wood.

Sources:

h2g2. “The Role of Deforestation in the Fall of Rome,” http://h2g2.com/dna/h2g2/A2184473

Chew, S. (2007). The Recurring Dark Ages: Ecological Stress, Climate Changes, and System

Transformation. New York: Altamira


Building with Wood

Wood for Heating (e.g., public baths)

Wood-use in Industry

Felling Trees for Agriculture

Deforestation in Warfare

Source: h2g2. “The Role of Deforestation in the Fall of Rome,” http://h2g2.com/dna/h2g2/A2184473


Source: Rome Reborn—A Digital Model of Ancient Rome.

http://www.romereborn.virginia.edu/_images/gallery-2-1/Valley_Colosseum_medium.jpg


Deforestation

Soil erosion (in surrounding hills)

Flooding (in low-lying areas)

Disruption of water supply

Siltation of coastal areas



“[On the Italian peninsula, ] soil erosion also

carried sediments to collect in the low-lying

areas, where marshlands formed as result.

The spread of malaria and other swamp-bred

illnesses were predominant during the [late]

Roman period.”

Sing Chew, World Ecological Degradation: Accumulation, Urbanization, Deforestation,

3000 B.C.— A.D. 2000 (2001)











“Aksumite intellectual history . . . illustrates a recurrent

influence of trade on world history: trade routes are not only

the conduits of goods from one part of the world to another,

but also the conduits of ideas.”

Christopher Ehret (2002), in The Civilizations of Africa.(p. 291)


See Ehret, Civilizations of Africa (2002), p. 291


Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Church_Our_Lady_Mary_Zion_Axum_Ethio.jpg





“There had, from of old, been a certain market in China for glass,

enamelled (sic.) work, and fine stuffs from Syria; but whatever

exports found their way thither or to India and Arabia were far from

being a set-off to the supplies of silk . . . .

The balance of trade was, therefore, decidedly against the Empire,

and there was a constant drain of gold to the East.”

Bury, J.B. History of the Later Roman Empire: From the Death of Theodosius I to the

Death of Justinian


Source: Gladiator (2000)





A general problem of energy resource depletion

The peak in global oil production

Production ever more likely to decline, hence the “peak”

Peak Oil means not 'running out of oil', but 'running out of cheap oil'


http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

“The world will soon run out of conventionally

produced cheap oil.”

“…civilization as we know it will not survive,

unless we can find a way to live without fossil

fuels.”

Professor David Goodstein, Ph.D. (Physics)

Vice-Provost, California Institute of Technology

in Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil (2004)



Oil Depletion Curve, 1930 to 2002

(USA / Actual)

• “Most of the governments of Europe fell during this period, victims of the consequences of the oil crisis on their economies.”

• U.S. went into deep recession. New York City went

broke by 1975.

• “…for the less developed economies of the world, the impact of an overnight price increase of 400 per cent in their primary energy source was staggering.”

William Engdahl, A Century of War:

Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order (2004)



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,00019,419

2,295 1,930

2,505 1,691

2,797

1,704

4,845

7,999


“…oil prices will steadily increase as world

production approaches its peak.”

“The doubling of oil prices in the past couple of years is not an anomaly, but a picture of the future.”

“Peak oil is at hand…”

“Oil wars are certainly not out of the question.”


http://www.cecer.army.mil/






The US and European Union are seeking at

all costs to establish supply lines across the

southern Caucasus, the Black Sea, and

Turkey, thus avoiding Russian and Iranian

territory . . .

Source: UNEP, Balkan Vital Graphics, p. 18

http://www.grida.no/files/publications/balkan-vital-graphics/balkans-vital-graphic-full.pdf














Source: http://www.thefinancialmarketnews.com/don%E2%80%99t-get-it-twisted-we-are-already-at-war-with-iran/iran-siege-map


Source: http://www.juancole.com/images/2011/12/usbasesme.jpg




Initially seek means to “neutralize” Iran

Increase size of military (budget)

Reach out to potential military allies (e.g., Axumite-

Ethiopian Empire)

Reduce expenditures on other gov’t programs


Instead of paying Persian enemies to import silk, Byzantine-Romans eventually found a way to produce silk at home.

“Import substitution”

Much cheaper than war (blood & treasure)

Much better for domestic economy (+ value added, circulation of money)

Cleaner and “greener” than arms production & war



Sixth century Roman Empire had many common

features w/21st century “American Empire”

Suffering effects of significant resource constraints

Sought to shape future based on past conditions

Dependent on highly valued international commodity

(Rome = silk / US = oil)

Persia (Iran) profited from that dependency

Sought geo-strategic counter-weight—in Africa


This far, unlike Romans, Americans have yet to develop and deploy a viable, domestic alternative.

We’re still paying “Persia” (for oil).

Ergo, thus far, 21st century Americans are behind 6th century Romans, in implementing import substitution.

Romans reinvented themselves—many times over. Can the Americans?




Büntgen, U., et al. ( 2011). “2500 Years of European Climate Variability

and Human Susceptibility.” Science Magazine, 2011, from

www.sciencexpress.org

Burry, J. B. (1923). History of the Later Roman Empire from the Death of

Theodosius I to the Death of Justinian (AD 395 to AD 565) [Kindle

Edition]

Catton, W. R. (1980). Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary

Change. Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press

Chew, S. (2001). World Ecological Degradation: Accumulation,

Urbanization, and Deforestation, 3000 B.C. - A.D. 2000. Walnut Creek:

Alta Mira Press

Chew, S. (2007). The Recurring Dark Ages: Ecological Stress, Climate

Changes, and System Transformation. New York: Altamira


http://www.sciencexpress.org/

Chew, S. (2008). Ecological Futures: What History Can Teach Us. New York: Alta Mira Press

Chew, S. (2007). The Recurring Dark Ages: Ecological Stress, Climate Changes, and System Transformation. New York: Altamira

H2g2. “The Role of Deforestation in the Fall of Rome,” http://h2g2.com/dna/h2g2/A2184473

Engdahl, W. (2004). A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order. Ann Arbor, MI: Pluto Press.

Ehret, C. (2002). Northeastern, West, and North Africa: The Middle Centuries, 300-1450 The Civilizations of Africa: A History to 1800. Charlottesville, VA: University of Virginia Press.

Goodstein, D. (2004). Out of Gas: The end of the Age of Oil. New York: W.W. Norton and Company, Inc.

Herrin, J. (2007). Byzantium: The Surprising Life of a Medieval Empire. London: Penguin Books, Ltd


http://h2g2.com/dna/h2g2/A2184473

http://h2g2.com/dna/h2g2/A2184473

Norwich, J. J. (1992). Byzantium: The Early Years. New York: Alfred A.

Knopf

Pope, B. D. (2007). Petroleum Depletion, Economic Development, and

the Concept of Terracentrism. Doctoral Dissertation, Fielding Graduate

University, Santa Barbara, CA

http://gradworks.umi.com/34/74/3474283.html

Tainter, J. A. (1988). The Collapse of Complex Societies. Cambridge:

Cambridge University Press

UNEP/GRID-Arendal (2007). Major oil pipeline projects. UNEP/Grid

Arendal: Environmental Knowledge for Change, Maps and Graphics, from

http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/major-oil-pipeline-projects

END


http://gradworks.umi.com/34/74/3474283.html









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Justinian's Challenge: Ethiopian-Roman Alliance, 6th Century, CE