First steps into Futuring

“Managers make many decisions each day, and a great majority of them refers to future events”

Spyrog Makridakis

Roger BaconScientific Studies, 1260

1950 19

60

1970 19

80

1990

2013

The exploration of futures strongly bases on the participants abilities.

Ossip K. Flechtheim

Social Fabric

Technology Fabric

Zeitgeist describes the interactions,

values and believes of a society. It is the

“spirit of times” and the “soul of society”.

It describes the period after the present. The Future is inevitable, partial or not known and symbolizes changes and uncertainty.

It is a combination of new or existing variables and their amplitudes.

Future of the Past

Future of the Present

Future of the Future

We live, already lived or are really close to the Future of the Past. That is why we have more facts and information that transforms it into a pool of insights and deeper understanding of changes.

1966“Probe of the future”, TRW

66 forecastsMostly wrong

1967“The Year 2000”, Macmillian100 inventions15% corrects10% partial correct

Steven P. Schnaars

The Future of the Present generates new realities and identifies new possible changes, logics, risks and opportunities. It is a combination of several variables from trends to fictions.

The primary objective is to amplify and create new perspectives anticipating decisions.

IsomorphicCycles

Trends

NewVariables

FutureFuture

The spread of computers and the Internet will put jobs in two categories: People who tell computers what to do, and people who are told by computers what to do.” Only one of these two job categories will be well paid.

Marc Andreessen

After Next (AN) is a vision that is explored upon a created and selected future. It uses Fiction and variables from scenarios as a starting points. AN identifies new possible realities, logics and not yet existing opportunities. Once created it turns atemporal, a reality, that we do not know when it will happen.

Futu

re After Next

Variables of the future

New Variables

SocialZeitgeistFunction

TechnologyScience

Parts

It is the process of exploring, understanding and creating new future realities. Its objectives is to create a new future consciousness of possible changes, identify new opportunities, risks and logics for the present context.

Linear/ProgressiveCyclic Open/Complex

Cognitive(inspired by Metaverse Roadmap)

Unseen Future

VirtualMirror

Exis

tin

gN

ewPhysicalCognitive

Unseen Future

VirtualMirror

Exis

tin

gN

ew

Physical

(Daniel Egger 2013)

Micro Variables

MacroVariables

MegaVariables

Dr. Vannevar Bush “The 3rd Eye”, 1945

Core Vision Details

Google Glass, 2013

191

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The Cool Hunter

The Trend Researcher

The Futurist

The Cool Hunter

The Trend Researcher

The Futurist

The Cool Hunter

The Trend Researcher

The Futurist

Planner Futurist(Specific Theme; 3-5 years; may use inputs from the

Futurists)

(Multiple perspectives; more than 5 years; constantly in the

flux)

ExploratoryQualitative

NormativeQuantitative

Future Studies applies multiple tools to explore

new realities.

- Mechanical Extrapolation- Unexplored Assumptions- Not to imagine- Work only with ONE future- Search for a solution instead of opportunities- Predict the future- Judge the future with todays values- Low Flexibility- “Fashion” Tools- Super simplified Tools

“We did not invent time travel yet

(unknonw)

too change the past. Our only opportunity is

to create a new future.

@Daniel_Eggerdaniel@foltigo.comwww.foltigo.com