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CHINA AND IRON OREHOPES AND REALITY CLYDE RUSSELL REUTERS 9 MARCH 2016
(Clyde Russell is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
WHAT WE KNOW
China’s economy growth rate is slowing
China is trying to re-engineer its economy
China aims to close excess capacity
Steel, aluminium, cement, ship-building targets
Commodity import volumes still robust, more differentiated
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
Where will China’s growth bottom out?
Will China avoid hard landing (credit crisis, currency depreciation, capital outflows)?
Will China be able to restructure heavy industries?
Is it possible that China’s growth can accelerate to the levels where 1 billion tonnes of steel are needed a year?
“Misconceptions play a
prominent role in my
view of the world.” ― George Soros
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