Amárach Economic Recovery Index November 2013

1 Economic Recovery Index

Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing November 2013 (including analysis by main paper; TV provider; mobile network)

© Amárach Research

2 Economic Recovery Index

Momentum

Success in business and marketing is all about

momentum, and right now our Economic

Recovery Index is gathering momentum, reaching

in November its highest level for the second

month in a row.

In recent months we have seen a gradual

improvement in general sentiment about the

economy – but in November we have seen a

gradual improvement in sentiment about the

consumer, including spending intentions.

It’s still too early to call, but a gradual alignment

of positive macro sentiment with positive micro

behaviour could finally deliver a pick up in

consumer and retail spending.

Fingers crossed for a positive turn going into

2014.

3 Economic Recovery Index

The Emotional Recovery

We have been reporting our monthly

Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.

We set out four years ago to assess the

psychological impact of the recession and to

chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards

recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.

This report summarises our Economic

Recovery Index results from April 2009 to

November 2013.

The most recent fieldwork was conducted

during 11th-18th November 2013 inclusive.

The full data series is on our website – if you

want us to conduct additional analyses (by

brands etc) then feel free to get in touch.

4 Economic Recovery Index

Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic

Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).

Our Index rose further to 29.6 in November 2013, breaking all records since we began

tracking the mood of the nation in April 2009:

The Economic Recovery Index

Source: Amárach Research, November 2013

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ap

r '0

9

Jun

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'11

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'12

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

'13

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

e

July

Au

g

Sep

t

Oct

No

v

5 Economic Recovery Index

A Matter of Measurement

Oct ’13: 32% Nov ’13: 26%

Oct ’13: 32% Nov ’13: 36%

Oct ’13: 32% Nov ’13: 32%

Oct ’13: 4% Nov ’13: 5%

Oct ’13: 0% Nov ’13: 0%

Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us

which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)

The percentage thinking ‘things are getting worse’ is less than a third the level three years ago:

6 Economic Recovery Index

ERI Summary Tables I

Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?

% choosing each statement:

%

The economic

situation in

Ireland is

getting worse

The economic

situation is bad

but has

stabilized

The economic

situation is bad

but showing a

few signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

getting better

and showing

clear signs of

improvement

The economic

situation is

good and

almost fully

recovered

Economic

Recovery

Index

Nov-09 51 27 21 1 0 17.8

Nov-10 80 12 6 1 1 7.3

Nov-11 57 24 17 2 0 16.3

Nov-12 47 30 20 3 0 19.6

Oct-13 32 32 32 4 0 27.4

Nov-13 26 36 32 5 0 29.6

7 Economic Recovery Index

ERI Summary Tables II

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

Ireland will be

through the

worst of the

recession in

12 months

time

I feel I am

financially

comfortable

enough to

make it

through the

recession

I am optimistic

in spite of the

current

economic

situation

Right now it

seems like the

recession is

affecting other

people more

than it is

affecting me

Nov-09 41 45 51 52

Nov-10 18 32 33 45

Nov-11 23 34 42 45

Nov-12 27 34 44 43

Oct-13 30 36 44 43

Nov-13 36 42 49 44

8 Economic Recovery Index

ERI Summary Tables III

% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:

%

I am more

relaxed about

spending

money than I

was a few

months ago

I am saving a

lot more than

before

because of the

recession

My main

financial priority

is to pay off my

debts as quickly

as possible

I would be

happy to

borrow money

from a bank if I

need to

Nov-09 16 27 62 28

Nov-10 11 24 50 20

Nov-11 15 26 55 23

Nov-12 16 25 53 22

Oct-13 18 24 57 24

Nov-13 22 24 54 26

9 Economic Recovery Index

Financial Resilience I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, class, Dublin):

“I feel I am financially strong enough to make it through the recession”

Source: Amárach Research, November 2013

November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 9% 8% 10% 11% 8% 6% 9% 11% 14% 13% 6%

Slightly Agree 33% 37% 29% 31% 39% 30% 23% 36% 34% 40% 26%

Neither/Nor 14% 18% 10% 15% 15% 16% 13% 12% 14% 16% 12%

Slightly Disagree 21% 18% 24% 25% 19% 24% 24% 16% 18% 17% 25%

Strongly Disagree 20% 18% 23% 14% 17% 22% 28% 21% 18% 13% 27%

10 Economic Recovery Index

Financial Resilience II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by newspaper/tv/mobile network):

“I feel I am financially strong enough to make it through the recession”

Source: Amárach Research, November 2013

November 2013 TOTAL Irish

Times

Irish

Indepe

ndent

Irish

Daily

Mail

Sky UPC O2 Vodafone Meteor 3 EMobile

Weighted Sample 1000 170 232 83 426 234 237 345 194 79 46

Strongly Agree 9% 13% 8% 9% 8% 10% 8% 10% 9% 12% 4%

Slightly Agree 33% 40% 39% 27% 31% 38% 33% 30% 32% 44% 31%

Neither/Nor 14% 15% 15% 19% 16% 12% 15% 13% 13% 8% 29%

Slightly Disagree 21% 15% 20% 21% 19% 21% 21% 25% 20% 17% 15%

Strongly Disagree 20% 15% 17% 20% 24% 16% 20% 21% 21% 18% 16%

11 Economic Recovery Index

Spendthrift I

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:

“I am more relaxed about spending money than a few months ago”

Source: Amárach Research, November 2013

November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Strongly Agree 6% 6% 5% 9% 9% 3% 4% 3% 7% 6% 6%

Slightly Agree 16% 18% 14% 18% 18% 14% 14% 15% 18% 19% 12%

Neither/Nor 19% 22% 16% 17% 16% 20% 14% 24% 22% 23% 15%

Slightly Disagree 26% 24% 27% 28% 28% 28% 22% 22% 23% 27% 25%

Strongly Disagree 33% 28% 38% 25% 27% 34% 46% 36% 29% 24% 41%

12 Economic Recovery Index

Spendthrift II

% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by newspaper/tv/mobile network):

“I am more relaxed about spending money than a few months ago”

Source: Amárach Research, November 2013

November 2013 TOTAL Irish

Times

Irish

Indepe

ndent

Irish

Daily

Mail

Sky UPC O2 Vodafone Meteor 3 EMobile

Weighted Sample 1000 170 232 83 426 234 237 345 194 79 46

Strongly Agree 9% 7% 9% 5% 7% 6% 6% 6% 9% 4% 9%

Slightly Agree 20% 17% 19% 15% 18% 18% 12% 14% 24% 18% 20%

Neither/Nor 22% 19% 15% 17% 19% 19% 18% 17% 16% 22% 22%

Slightly Disagree 26% 23% 31% 26% 27% 25% 24% 28% 31% 24% 26%

Strongly Disagree 24% 33% 25% 35% 28% 32% 38% 32% 20% 32% 24%

13 Economic Recovery Index

The Mood of the Nation 1

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2013

Source: Amárach Research, November 2013

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Apr

'09

Ma

yJun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

0F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

1F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

2F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

vD

ec

Jan'1

3F

eb

Ma

rA

pr

Ma

yJune

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

v

Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry

14 Economic Recovery Index

The Mood of the Nation 2

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: April 2009 to November 2013

Source: Amárach Research, November 2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Apr

'09

Ma

y

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan'1

0

Feb

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan'1

1

Feb

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan'1

2

Feb

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

v

De

c

Jan'1

3

Feb

Ma

r

Apr

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

No

v

Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

15 Economic Recovery Index

Emotions Summary Table

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes:

% Enjoyment Happ-

iness Stress Worry Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger

Nov-09 50 51 50 42 33 20 21 18

Nov-10 45 48 51 46 38 24 21 25

Nov-11 53 50 48 45 34 21 24 18

Nov-12 53 49 46 43 31 21 25 18

Oct-13 54 50 47 43 32 23 26 16

Nov-13 53 49 45 40 34 22 25 18

16 Economic Recovery Index

Changing Moods I

Source: Amárach Research, November 2013

November 2013 TOTAL Male Female 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1

F50+

C2DE

F50-

Weighted Sample 1000 494 506 169 223 187 156 265 279 477 523

Enjoyment 53% 52% 54% 50% 53% 48% 48% 63% 53% 59% 48%

Happiness 49% 50% 48% 59% 55% 45% 44% 44% 50% 56% 44%

Stress 45% 43% 48% 56% 48% 54% 47% 29% 47% 45% 45%

Worry 40% 38% 41% 45% 42% 43% 38% 33% 41% 40% 39%

Anxiety 34% 30% 37% 36% 34% 35% 34% 29% 33% 33% 34%

Boredom 27% 28% 26% 52% 31% 22% 19% 17% 29% 26% 28%

Physical Pain 25% 22% 29% 28% 21% 20% 27% 31% 29% 24% 26%

Sadness 22% 19% 26% 30% 24% 19% 18% 21% 20% 23% 22%

Anger 18% 19% 17% 26% 18% 23% 19% 8% 20% 18% 18%

Fear 14% 14% 13% 14% 17% 15% 16% 8% 15% 13% 14%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: November 2013

17 Economic Recovery Index

Changing Moods II

Source: Amárach Research, November 2013

November 2013 TOTAL Irish

Times

Irish

Indepe

ndent

Irish

Daily

Mail

Sky UPC O2 Vodafone Meteor 3 EMobile

Weighted Sample 1000 170 232 83 426 234 237 345 194 79 46

Enjoyment 53% 61% 57% 59% 53% 55% 53% 52% 54% 58% 42%

Happiness 49% 52% 47% 58% 47% 54% 51% 46% 54% 58% 39%

Stress 45% 43% 40% 54% 48% 43% 47% 43% 47% 52% 44%

Worry 40% 44% 41% 49% 40% 40% 37% 42% 42% 38% 35%

Anxiety 34% 35% 32% 40% 35% 34% 38% 32% 31% 36% 30%

Boredom 27% 24% 22% 26% 25% 28% 25% 25% 32% 39% 17%

Physical Pain 25% 26% 21% 25% 24% 28% 25% 25% 26% 22% 27%

Sadness 22% 25% 20% 31% 21% 22% 22% 20% 23% 22% 35%

Anger 18% 15% 14% 26% 19% 16% 19% 15% 19% 16% 28%

Fear 14% 18% 12% 20% 12% 14% 14% 13% 12% 13% 16%

Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?

% saying Yes: November 2013 (by newspaper/tv service/mobile network)

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Trends Report

Call us on 01 410 5200 if you want your hack

your way to growth in 2014:

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For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm