What will London’s economy and labour

market and look like in 2014-2020?

Paul BivandInclusion

Will positive trends continue?

Gaps have been closing

And for disadvantaged groups

May

200

7

May

200

8

May

200

9

May

201

0

May

201

1

May

201

20

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

London employment rateLone parent BAMEDisabled

May

200

7

May

200

8

May

200

9

May

201

0

May

201

1

May

201

2-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

London employment rateLone parent BAMEDisabled

London’s gaps in JSA off-flows have closed

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

130%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

London UK

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

London Gap

Changing employmentChange in London's sectors over past couple of decades

0

50

100

150

200

250

Manufacturing,Constructionand Utilities

Wholesale,Retail,Transport andStorage

Public admin,education andhealth

Professional,real estate andbusinessservices

Accomodation,Entertainment,Recreation andOther services

Information,Communication, Financial andInsurance

… changing structure demands higher qualifications

8% have no qualifications

48% have degrees (32% in UK)

Jobs to 2020 People servicesCreative Digital Science & Technology

    Greater London Inner London East London Newham

    Increase Increase Increase IncreaseCode 2nd Tier Description Total % Total % Total % Total %

1.2 Nursing & medical Subjects/Vocations 23,786 13% 8,968 14% 3,952 14% 618 13%

13.1 Teaching and Lecturing 21,481 12% 8,524 13% 3,577 13% 504 12%15.4 Marketing and Sales 5,247 12% 2,704 13% 679 11% 76 8%

1.3 Health and Social Care 11,116 11% 4,741 12% 1,702 10% 219 9%

1.5 Child Development and Well Being 32,098 11% 13,612 12% 5,297 11% 760 10%

5.3 Urban, Rural and Regional Planning 14,959 11% 8,267 13% 1,877 9% 188 6%11.2 Sociology and Social Policy 4,308 10% 1,934 12% 640 10% 83 8%

9.3 Media and Communication 13,556 10% 7,897 12% 1,916 9% 188 7%1.1 Medicine and Dentistry 5,153 9% 2,452 11% 806 9% 98 7%2.1 Science 5,038 8% 2,518 10% 688 7% 96 6%1.4 Public Services 3,296 8% 1,278 8% 478 7% 47 4%4.1 Engineering 4,699 8% 2,650 11% 560 6% 64 4%

14.1 Foundations for Learning and Life 1,006 7% 427 8% 155 7% 20 5%15.5 Law and Legal Services 2,182 6% 1,593 9% 270 6% 17 3%8.1 Sport, Leisure and Recreation 2,566 6% 1,529 8% 351 5% 3 0%

14.2 Preparation for Work 3,691 6% 1,940 7% 493 5% 61 3%15.1 Accounting and Finance 9,127 5% 6,478 9% 956 4% 43 1%9.1 Performing Arts 2,679 5% 1,778 8% 394 5% 20 2%9.2 Crafts, Creative Arts, and Design 8,298 5% 5,454 8% 1,162 4% 101 3%6.1 ICT Practitioners 5,663 5% 3,218 7% 594 3% 108 4%

15.3 Business Management 25,161 4% 16,540 7% 2,682 3% 215 2%7.1 Retailing and Wholesaling 9,059 4% 5,649 7% 1,257 4% 202 3%

12.2 Other Languages, Literature and Culture 1,831 4% 1,141 6% 292 4% 38 3%

7.4 Hospitality and Catering 2,377 3% 1,305 4% 265 2% 21 1%

4.2 Manufacturing Technologies 11,173 3% 6,736 6% 834 2% 121 1%8.2 Travel and Tourism 1,914 3% 1,133 5% 257 3% 35 2%

4.3 Transportation Operations/Maintenance 1,589 3% 1,077 5% 77 1% 5 0%

6.2 ICT for Users 1,469 2% 1,266 4% 79 1% -16 -1%3.2 Horticulture and Forestry 79 1% 84 2% 15 1% 5 4%

15.2 Administration 136 0% 704 3% -59 -1% -23 -2%5.2 Building and Construction -6,469 -4% -1,750 -4% -1,319 -4% -218 -4%

The supply-side challenge ...

1. Female employment: childcare and part-time jobs

Employment rate of women with dependent children

Note: Head of family or spouse only, includes full-time students

Source: Labour Force Survey, Oct-Dec, 2007-2011

74.2 71.3

86.9

58.3

47.6

73.165.7

90.0

72.4

57.3

Not parents - Men Not parents -Women

Couple parents -Men

Couple parents -Women

Lone parents - All

London Rest of UK

2. Continue to improve schools

London is ahead on % attaining 5 A-C GCSEs but varies by income

3. Improve Further Education

Curriculum should focus on subject sector areas that offer quantity (the scale of jobs) and growth (net growth in jobs) opportunities:– Health and Social Care– Marketing and Sales– Building and Construction– Business Management– Accounting and Finance– Manufacturing Technologies; and– Child Development and Well Being

Employers, continue to cite various skills shortages – the most common being management and leadership skills; and ICT and communication skills.

Advice to a London FE College:

4. Mobility: one and many labour markets

Greater London 3.7 million jobs

Inner London 1.5 million jobs

East London 0.6 million jobs

Newham 91 thousand jobs

Greater London 72,000

vacancies

Inner London 31,000

vacancies

East London 14,000

vacancies

Newham 5,000 vacancies

5. Making Work Pay in London

impact of welfare reform

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Banking, finance & insurance

Transport & communication

Manufacturing

Public admin., education & health

Construction

Other services

Distribution, hotels & restaurants

London UK

Percent of those in work earning below the living wage by industry (2012)

6. Dynamic or insecure?

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

5.5%

6.0%

London UK

Movers between unemployment and low pay as a proportion of the workforce

7. Changing employment patterns of mothers

Couple Mother

Lone Mother

Couple Mother

Lone Mother

Couple Mother

Lone Mother

Couple Mother

Lone Mother

Couple Mother

Lone Mother

Level 4 + Level 4 + Level 3 Level 3 Level 2 Level 2 Level 1 Level 1 None None

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Full Time Part Time Mini

Welfare ReformSituation of (claimants) on the whole shall not be made reallyor apparently so eligible as the situation of the independent labourer of the lowest classRoyal Commission on the Poor Laws, 1834

Or, in modern rephrasingMaking Work PayBut, not just money, also conditionality

Impacts of welfare reformMany reports – huge impactsParticularly disabled peopleBut employment rates rising for

disadvantagedHowever

– labour markets in Outer London more ‘normal for UK’

– higher part-time working– higher proportions of jobs taken by lower-

qualified

Tasks for 2014-20Mitigating impacts of welfare reformHelping people manage work with

personal circumstancesLabour mobilityLondon’s success built by migration –

in and out– Internal UK– EU– International non-EU