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Pigeon Forge and Tennessee tourism trends including hotel and lodging trends compared to other U.S. resort areas
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Hotel & Tourism Trends in Pigeon Forge & Sevier County
Stephen C. Morse, Ph.D.
Director & Economist Tourism Institute
University of TennesseeKnoxville, TN
Ph: (865) [email protected]
May 14, 2009
Riverstone Resort & Spa
Agenda1. Tourism trends in Sevier County
2. Theme park & amusement trends in Pigeon Forge
3. Hotel demand trends (ADR, Occ. Rates, RevPAR)
4. Outlook for 2009
Top 10 Tennessee Counties for Tourist Spending in 2007
1) Davidson Co. $3,991 million (Nashville)2) Shelby Co. $3,064 million (Memphis)3) Sevier Co. $1,502 million 4) Knox Co. $796 million (Knoxville)5) Hamilton Co. $710 million (Chattanooga)6) Blount Co. $276 million (Maryville,
Townsend)
7) Sullivan Co. $270 million (Kingsport, Bristol)
8) Williamson Co. $251 million (Franklin, Brentwood)
9) Rutherford Co. $237 million (Murfreesboro)
10)Washington Co. $188 million (Johnson City)
Source: TIA & TN Dept. of Tourist Development 3
Pigeon Forge Business Sector (2007)
Percent of Gross Sales
Lodging 16%Amusements 15%Restaurants 14%Retail & Services 12%Outlets 11%Gas & Grocery 10%Theaters (Source: City of Pigeon Forge) 7%Craft, Gift & Specialty 6%
2008 Tourism Related Tax Revenues for Pigeon Forge
• 1% Gross Business Receipts Tax $7.1 million
• 2% Amusement Tax $2.5 million
• 2.25% Lodging Tax $3.1 million
TOTAL Tourism Related Taxes
$12.7 Million
Source: City of Pigeon Forge
Tourism Tax Relief per Pigeon Forge Household
• Each permanent resident household in Pigeon Forge pays $4,775 less in local city taxes as a result of taxes generated by tourist activity
Source: City of Pigeon Forge; U.S. Census Bureau; Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee (based on 2,648 resident households)
Tourism Tax Relief per Pigeon Forge Household
$4,775Tax relieffor each
Pigeon Forge household
Source: City of Pigeon Forge; U.S. Census Bureau; Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee (based on 2,648 resident households)
Sevier Co. ranks lowest in TN for effective property tax rates
Property Tax / Housing Value
• Shelby Co. 1.29%• Davidson Co. 0.95%• Anderson Co. 0.87%• Knox Co. 0.73%• Blount Co. 0.54%• Sevier Co. 0.35%
Source: Local Tax Burdens on TN Households; TN Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations; Staff Report Volume V – August 2007
2008 Amusement & Theme Park Gross Sales, Pigeon Forge
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
Source: City of Pigeon Forge
Millions $
How was 2008 vs. 2007 for Amusement & Theme Park Gross Sales? Percent Change 2008 vs. 2007 Pigeon Forge
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
-6.0%
41.0%
6.0%
-19.0%-11.0%
2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
-10.0%-18.3%
11.5%
-14.2%
Flat Summer of 2008
Source: City of Pigeon Forge
How is 2009 so far for Amusements & Theme Park Gross Sales? Percent Change
2009 vs. 2008, Pigeon Forge
Jan Feb Mar-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%62.4%
1.7%
-19.2%
Dollywood open Jan 1-3
Source: City of Pigeon Forge
How was 2008 vs. 2007 for Hotel Gross Sales? Percent Change 2008 vs. 2007, Pigeon Forge
-40%
-20%
0%
20%12.0%13.0%
6.0%
-16.0%
-6.0%-8.0% -6.0%
2.0%
-18.0%-13.4%
2.2%
-16.1%
Source: City of Pigeon Forge
How is 2009 so far for Hotel Gross Sales? Percent Change 2009 vs. 2008, Pigeon Forge
Jan Feb Mar-40%
-20%
0%
-11.3%
-2.8%
-23.0%
Source: City of Pigeon Forge
Feb. 2009 vs. Feb. 2008, Hotel Occupancy Rate – Percent Change
Nashvil
le
U.S. SE Regio
n
Kingsport
Sevie
r Co.
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
-13.1%-11.1%
-10.1%-9.2%
-6.7%-5.3% -5.0%
-3.5%
1.1%
Source: Smith Travel Research
March 2009 vs. March 2008 Hotel Occupancy Rate – Percent Change
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
-12.9%-11.6%-11.4%-11.1%-10.7%-10.0% -9.6%
-6.0%-4.8%
Source: Smith Travel Research
U.S. Lodging industry begins 2009 on a sour note (% change YTD Feb. 09 vs. Feb. 08)
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5% + 3.4%
- 7.5%
- 10.5%
- 6.5%
- 16.3%
Supply(new rooms)
Demand Occupancy ADR RevPar
Source: Smith Travel Research
The Perfect Storm to slow the hotel industry
Let’s Compare Sevier Co. Hotel Performance to These Resort Areas in the U.S.
Branson, MO
Myrtle Beach, SCCharleston, SCDaytona Beach, FLOrlando, FL
Panama City, FL
Myrtle Beach, SC vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates,
2008 over 2007
Jan Feb
Mar
AprM
ayJu
nJu
lAug
Sep
Oct NovDec
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
BLACK = Myrtle Beach, SCRED = Sevier Co.
= Sevier Co. Occ Rate changed lessSource: Smith Travel Research
Branson, MO vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates,
2008 over 2007
Jan Feb
Mar
AprM
ayJu
nJu
lAug
Sep
Oct NovDec
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
BLACK = Branson, MORED = Sevier Co. = Sevier Co. Occ. Rate changed less Source: Smith Travel Research
Orlando, FL vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates, 2008 over 2007
Jan Feb
Mar
AprM
ayJu
nJu
lAug
Sep
Oct NovDec
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
BLACK = Orlando, FLRED = Sevier Co.
= Sevier Co. Occ Rate changed lessSource: Smith Travel Research
Panama City, FL vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates,
2008 over 2007
Jan Feb
Mar
AprM
ayJu
nJu
lAug
Sep
Oct NovDec
-20%-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%
BLACK = Panama City, FLRED = Sevier Co.
= better Sevier Co. Occ Rate changed less
Source: Smith Travel Research
Daytona Beach, FL vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates,
2008 over 2007
Jan Feb
Mar
AprM
ayJu
nJu
lAug
Sep
Oct NovDec
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
BLACK = Daytona Beach, FLRED = Sevier Co.
= Sevier Co. Occ Rate changed lessSource: Smith Travel Research
Charleston, SC vs. Sevier Co. – Percent Change Hotel Occupancy Rates,
2008 over 2007
Jan Feb
Mar
AprM
ayJu
nJu
lAug
Sep
Oct NovDec
-20%-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%
-8%-6%-4%-2%0%
BLACK = Charleston, SCRED = Sevier Co.
= Sevier Co. Occ Rate changed lessSource: Smith Travel Research
Sevier Co. – Percent Change Avg. Daily Rates (ADR), 2008 over 2007
Jan Feb
Mar
AprM
ayJu
nJu
lAug
Sep
Oct NovDec
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
1.2%
4.2%3.1%
0.8%0.9%
-1.3%-1.5%
3.6%
-5.9%
-3.8%-3.7%-3.9%
Source: Smith Travel Research
Sevier Co. – Percent Change RevPAR, 2008 over 2007
Jan Feb
Mar
AprM
ayJu
nJu
lAug
Sep
Oct NovDec
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
-6.5%
1.5%0.3%
-14.4%
-1.6%
-10.1%-11.9%
1.5%
-19.4%
-10.2%-12.3%
-6.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research
Outlook for 2009(Swimming or treading water?)
2009 Economic Stimulus PackageNot much help – Why?
• 2008 stimulus package provided lump sum checks of $2,400 for family of five
• 2009 stimulus package spreads same amount over full year to equal $13 more per week
Gas prices fall from $4.00+, but are beginning to rise
20-Mar-08 Record High - 7/14/08
11-May-09$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$3.28
$4.11
$2.18
Source: AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report
What will be the shape of our recovery?
V-Shaped?
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2
4
6
8
10
12Economic Growth
What will be the shape of our recovery?
U-Shaped?
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2
4
6
8
10
12Economic Growth
What will be the shape of our recovery?Horizontal L-Shaped?
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2
4
6
8
10
12Economic Growth
What is today’s consensus for recovery?
• V-shaped recovery: 10% –(getting weaker)
• U-shaped recovery: 85% –(getting weaker)
• Horizontal L-shaped: 5% –(getting stronger)
Smith Travel Research Hotel Data Conference
• August 4-5, 2009
• Nashville, TN
• More information at:
www.strglobal.com
Thank you for inviting meQuestions? Comments?
Stephen C. Morse, Ph.D.
Director & Economist Tourism Institute
University of TennesseeKnoxville, TN
PH: (865) 974-6249Email: [email protected]