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a 51 slides review of the status of technology, trends and underlying patterns with emphasis on mobile tech & adoption. Prepared for WebCongress US edition. Presented at James L. Knight Convention Center in Miami, November 2013
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WebCongress
ed fernandez @efernandez
US edition, Miami
Who am I 3 generations journey
ed: Mobile computing platforms
ed Gf: Energy, utilities Infrastructure
ed Jr: Hyperconnecting people&things
to singularity
smartphones
electricity
Why Does Superman Wear His Underwear Outside His Pants?
A) Express & Signify masculine strenght B) Aesthetics, emphasize human figure definition C) Printing techniques for comics last century
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/quora/why-does-superman-wear-re_b_2132374.html
from events & data (knowing) forming patterns (understanding) to predictions
Any fool can know
The point is to understand
and, beyond understanding, predict
Einstein
Patterns State of the art in Tech:
KPCB internet trends. Mary Meeker & Liang Wu.
Asymco. Horace Dediu
Why this is happening: Everet Rogers. Diffussion of innovations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everett_Rogers
Why is it important to people? Richard Dawkins. Selfish gene
& references
& why are we here?
Internet
“The internet makes human desires more easily attainable, it offers convenience”
“Convenience on the internet is basically achieved by two things: speed & cognitive ease” http://www.wired.com/business/2013/09/ev-williams-xoxo/
Ev Williams. Twitter co-founder
the mighty engine for convenience
every
traditional business
has a
digital bullet with
its name engraved
Internet: where are we?
Internet: where are we?
7,1B
World Population
2,67B Internet users*
200M
Internet adds this
year
1,1B Internet
adds 2008-2013
34% Internet
penetration
China India Indonesia Russia Philippines Brazil Mexico Argentina Colombia
Growth driven by emerging markets *End 2013 estimated on YoY growth rate of 8%. Source: UN/ITU, internetworldstats.com 2012
Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser
Apps & Devices everywhere
Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser
Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser
Source: ProgrammableWeb. @johnmusser
Mobile Trends:
a brave new world
Internet becoming
Mobile First
Post
M
att Mu
rph
y + Mary M
eeker h
ttp://kp
cb.co
m/in
sights/to
p-1
0-m
ob
ile-intern
et-trend
s
[ Post PC era ]
New computing cycles
Technology evolution Laws
Computing capacity Moore’s Law Computing power doubles every 18-24 months
Price cuts in half
Bandwidth capacity Gilder’s & Nielsen’s Law Doubles every 2 years - wired
Doubles every 2.5 years - wireless (Cooper’s Law)
Digital storage capacity Kryder’s Law Doubles every 2 years.
Wireless Smaller Powerful Cheaper
Smartphone adoption
World is here
not even half way
… Platforms Platforms
f r a g m e n t a t i o n
Complexity of mobile phone market mobile phone market share doesn’t tell the full story
Source: VisionMobile
Operating systems
Over the next two years, innovation in user experiences comes from new software platforms.
legacy frameworks, current operating systems, struggle to deliver disruptive innovation.
Potential innovators include BlackBerry OS 10, Firefox OS and Tizen.
Established players will selectively implement elements, but fail to gain the slick integration of the originals.
CCS insights. Predictions for 2013 and beyond
the TIC TAC TOE mobile strategy
Hardware OS Cloud
Motorola
Nokia
Microsoft
Apple
RIM
2000
Hardware OS Cloud
Motorola
Nokia
Microsoft
Apple
RIM
2007
Hardware OS Cloud
Motorola
Nokia
Microsoft
Apple
BlackBerry
2012 The year of the fruit
People motivations are changing?
1943 - Maslow 2013 - ?!?
Online & Offline
boundaries blurring
People:
• New paths in Maslow’s pyramid
• ‘truth’ is a tweet, photo or video clicked & sent away
• New definitions of ‘success’: money may not be in
• Access to luxury more important than owning luxury – Rise of sharing economy
• Self-realization and self-actualization online
• (Win)^3: You help me, I help you, we help others
• Klout score in your resume
• Managing man-machine symbiosis, key competencies.
• Global network, global thinking, global objectives. A collective intelligence arising (Singularity)
new generation of social entrepreneurs
Entrepreneurship
People: new generations Reduced sense of security since 2001 terrorists attacks
Destabilized economy since Global Financial crisis 2008
High unemployment levels – ‘Evil’ corporations
Increasing perceived fiscal pressure – self sustain or live out of the system
Pervasive & cheap computing everywhere
Tech-entrepreneur heroes – Dorsey, Zuckenberg, Larry, Sergey
All tools you need in the web: crowdfunding yourself (kickstarter)
reduced loss of aversion (nothing to lose) fostering self driven -entrepreneurship (most benefitial path in given conditions)
M
att M
urp
hy +
Mary
Meeker
http
://kpcb.c
om
/insig
hts
/top
-10-m
obile
-inte
rnet-tre
nds
Arguably the worst recession,
Undoubtely the biggest technology opportunity ever
…
What should we do?
1. Engage in POLITICS ?!?
2. EDUCATE (help next gen understand)
3. DO vs WATCH (create, innovate, act)
• ed fernandez @efernandez