Webbmedia Group 2013 Tech Trends

December 7, 2012

2013 Tech TrendsWhat’s new, what’s next and what

will matter in the coming year

Annual Trends Report

267-342-4300 [email protected] webbmediagroup.com

S t r a t e g y & I n n o v a t i o n

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Introduction

In the past year, we watched a car drive itself on a California highway. Bold media experiments (like News Corp’s The Daily) failed, while other newcomers (Quartz, Upworthy) have found great success. We learned that a social media algorithm can accurately predict regional crises...and the dire consequences to a local community when the Internet goes dark.

This Webbmedia Group annual report reflects on the most inventive, interesting and emerging tech trends in the past year and then takes a look ahead.

In 2013, we expect to see widespread adoption of new interfaces, new digital marketplaces, a change in how content is delivered, the eruption of sensor networks and a whole bunch of video. This report includes 29 of the most important trends we expect to track in 2013. We also offer short summaries on the industries that we believe will soon face significant disruption.




Trends: Quick ListContent:

• Native Advertising• “Everywhere” Deployment• Device-Specific Content• Aggregation• Verification

Digital Marketplaces:

• C-to-C Exchanges• 3D Printing• Product Design• Payment Systems

Interfaces:

• Eye Controls• Gesture-Based Computing• Phablets• E Ink

Video:

• Better, Not Second Screens• Live Dashboards• Living Room Monitoring• Too Much Content

Sensor Networks:

• Collision Avoidance• Personal Sensors• Hidden Wearable Tech

Data:

• Personal Clouds• Big Data• Sentiment Mining

Digital Culture:

• Meme Power• Privacy• Women• Regional Conflicts• Mobile Malware• Facebook Unravels

2013 Industry Disruptions:

• Publishing (Books)• Publishing (Newspapers)• Libraries• Education• Financial Services




Native AdvertisingEvery content producer hopes to publish a story that has a killer headline and is produced so well that that a consumer can’t help but to engage with and share it with others.

In the second half of 2012, some publishers began publishing exceptional – though sponsored – content. It was a seamless experience and every bit as good as what consumers might find elsewhere on that same website, though it was clearly written for or produced by a paid advertiser.

Multiple companies will launch native advertising experiences in 2013. To be sure, a successful strategy requires a dedicated in-house team to write copy and package content that reflects the same voice, ethos and design as the site.




“Everywhere” DeploymentConsumers demand content portability. If a financial story breaks overnight, they expect to be informed first thing in the morning, then to be able to easily follow that story during the day on multiple devices and in a format that suits them at that moment in time.

News media and other content-driven organizations should focus on story deployment that includes a variety of channels and platforms in the coming year.




Device-Specific ContentConsumers don’t spend hours reading books and lengthy magazine articles on their desktop computers. They do, however, spend an average of 51 minutes each day reading on their tablets. Yet for many organizations, a “mobile” strategy simply means designing a responsive website that functions as well on a phone or laptop.

Content-driven organizations that produce individual stories intended for different devices will do well in 2013. The same story package should be customized – written at different lengths, in different styles and have varying kinds of multimedia – depending on the device, type of story and time of day.




AggregationIn 2013, many organizations will focus on aggregation to produce more content for their channels with fewer staff resources. Companies such as NewsCred, Percolate and Magnify are just a few of the existing startups promising to provide rich content for websites, while dozens more are launching Q1 - Q2.

A successful aggregation strategy must rely on editorial curation rather than algorithm alone. And it should dutifully credit those from whom an idea originated. We recommend reading The Curator’s Code (http://www.curatorscode.org) for insights on how best to credit aggregated content.



http://www.curatorscode.org





VerificationDuring the 2012 campaign and election, some verification initiatives, such as MIT’s SuperPACApp, showed how critical information could be revealed in real-time.

With a proliferation of social networks, new websites and a faster-than-ever news cycle, consumers are finding difficulty discerning which stories can be trusted. At the same time, they are motivated to look for credible information and to learn more about the sources behind the content they consume.




C-to-C ExchangesWe’re busier than ever and finding it increasingly difficult to manage our necessary daily tasks.

Enter the latest crop of consumer-to-consumer exchanges, where an easy app interface connects us to people who can immediately help. Need someone to wait in line at the DMV? Post your offer on TaskRabbit and select a bidder you like. Need a last-minute ride to the airport? Zaarly already has a handful of drivers ready to help.

These lightweight, cost-effective C-to-C exchanges will expand and proliferate in 2013, offering more members and services across cities everywhere.




3D Printing For The MassesIn 2012, 3D printers became accessible to makers with means. Printers could be bought for a minimum $1,000, and while they allowed us to print trinkets at home, all of the 3D devices still required a good knowledge of computing and a lot of patience.

The 3D printing market is poised to explode in the next year. In Europe, consumers will be able to upload their own creations to Staples and hours later, pick up their 3D objects from the store. In the U.S., Shapeways already hosts a 3D marketplace online, where designers can contribute objects for sale and individuals can print one-off architectural models or art projects for a relatively low fee.




Rapid, Curated Product DesignIt’s hard to get a new product launched. Especially when it requires lots of capital to produce a prototype. While crowdfunded sites like Indiegogo and Kickstarter provide a platform for initial funding, they don’t offer a marketplace or sales partners to move that product once it launches.

New sites like Quirky are transforming the traditional invention model. Ideas are submitted, members offer suggestions and vote, and the most popular ideas are put into production. The process is fast, and products come to stores such as Target, Frontgate and OfficeMax quickly.




Digital Payment SystemsIn the past year, mobile systems like Square, Bank of America’s Mobile Pay on Demand and PayPal’s Here have allowed us to take credit card payments from virtually anywhere.

In 2013, we expect to see more digital payment systems that offer competitive rates and additional services, such as money management.




Eye ControlsFrom iris scans to eye tracking cameras, 2013 will be the year of the eyeball. New startups already have prototypes that can identify us by simply scanning our eyes. Some police jurisdictions in the U.S. have already deployed similar technology, while other companies are creating personal security systems (software that unlocks a mobile phone only after positive authentication via an iris scan).

Researchers in Copenhagen have developed an eye-controlled tablet for anyone to use. After passing an infrared light to the user, a smartphone or tablet’s camera can be operated by moving the eye. This system promises to help those with disabilities. It will also aid night owls read silently next to their sleeping partners.




Gesture-Based ComputingMany people spend countless hours browsing for recipes online. Once they send a recipe to their tablet or smartphone and they’re in the kitchen cooking, home chefs face a universal problem: how can they scroll through the instructions without dirtying the screen?

A few companies launched innovative fixes in the past year, from a single large button intended for the elbow to a modified screen with all of the information in one place.

In 2013, we anticipate seeing the integration of gesture-based computing, offering consumers the option to wave their hand over a phone or tablet’s camera to advance to additional screens. We’ve already seen great success with gesture-based games in the Microsoft Kinect and PS3.




Phablets“Phablets” are exactly what they sound like: tablets with phone capabilities. Or slightly bigger, more tablety mobile phones.

In 2013, several new phablets are launching, primarily for Asian markets. While some find the form factor of these devices prohibitive, there’s still demand for smaller, lighter-weight devices. If you’re in doubt, consider the iPad Mini and Kindle Paperwhite.




E InkOne of the most exciting devices launched in 2012 was Amazon’s Paperwhite Kindle, which offers an E Ink display that works regardless of direct light.

E Ink, which is actually the name of a proprietary product rather than the technology itself (think “Kleenex” vs “tissue”), is powering numerous devices, from eReaders to watches to retail displays. Early in 2013, smart credit cards that can display real-time account information will launch in Asia, while a startup called PopSLATE will begin offering a second E Ink screen that can be attached to the back of a smartphone to double the display capacity. There’s even a concept baseball glove that shows the speed of a fastball and sends pitch signals to the catcher in total secrecy.




Better, Not Second ScreensIs it unrealistic to think that consumers will someday multitask while watching live video...without using their mobile phones to trade messages on social networks? We think so. It’s a matter of building a better – vs a second – screen experience.

Some organizations have launched dashboards combining the search and social functionality that consumers seek elsewhere while watching live television. Others, such as the smartly-designed HBO GO tablet app, deliver helpful content during time-shifted viewing that serves as a value add to the consumer. It’s easy to argue that the network’s Game of Thrones franchise is better viewed through HBO GO than on a big television screen because the app offers critical details about the show’s many, many characters. The success of HBO GO has been celebrated by channel subscribers, a fact that hasn’t gone unnoticed by the cable companies previously charged with distributing HBO content.




Live DashboardsDuring the 2012 election season, most major news organizations launched video dashboard experiences. Some (HuffPost Live) had superior technology and a unique layout, while others (Washington Post) offered exceptional content.

Video, delivered live via great dashboards, promises big advertising revenue while offering value for the consumer.

While we haven’t seen a single dashboard product superior to any other, we do anticipate dashboard experiences that combine aggregation, social discovery, deep search and added functionality (like annotation) as well as video content in 2013.




Too Much Video ContentWith increased demand for video and easier means to produce content, we expect to find a glut of content in 2013. For example, at the end of 2012, 72 hours of video were being uploaded to YouTube alone every minute.

This presents an opportunity and a challenge for media organizations. There will be more content than ever to aggregate, curate and vet. Yet with a supply glut comes an insistence on quality content, putting pressure on companies to release video of exceptional value to the consumer.




Collision AvoidanceIn the past year, California State passed legislation legalizing self-driving cars just as Google announced a successful trial of its own self-driving vehicle.

Meantime, the Velo Bike Shop released a bike with a smartphone application that alerts the rider before she runs into an open car door (or something else). The bike also offers navigation for cyclists and social features.

In 2013, we expect to see more autonomous vehicles and collision avoidance systems, freeing passengers to sit back, relax and actually enjoy their rides.




Personal Sensors

The new fitbit one is so tiny it easily gets lost in pockets. But it offers big personal data possibilities. This device tracks steps and stairs climbed, vibrates to remind the wearer to get up and walk and synchs wirelessly across phones and computers.

There are a number of affordable personal sensors coming to the market that will track energy burned, quality of sleep and even posture. Information can be saved to a private web page or shared with the outside world for additional motivation.




Hidden Wearable TechnologyIn 2012, cellular companies turned us each into invisible hotspots. In 2013, many startups will do what previously seemed impossible: transform us each into walking, charging batteries.

Early in 2013, the Everpurse will begin shipping its line of battery-powered handbags which include a charging station hidden in a secret compartment. Power Felt, another startup, offers a thermoelectric layer that transforms our body’s natural heat into enough energy to power a mobile phone. Simply slide your modified phone into your pocket and prevent battery depletion.




Personal Clouds

We are storing more and more information in personal clouds. Between Dropbox, Google and Evernote, we can easily conduct business, share photos and maintain our personal calendars without having to own a computer.

While we rely more on personal clouds, it will be increasingly important to maintain clean, searchable data and to protect our accounts. In 2013, there will be a new crop of search tools helping us to search through our own cloud-based information. We’ll also see different options to safeguard our sensitive files from unwanted eyes...and to ensure that content isn’t accidentally deleted or corrupted. Demand for both search and protection will increase throughout the year.




Big DataWe interact with data throughout our days, sending information as we use the Internet, drive our cars, see our doctors, pay our taxes and make mobile phone calls.

This collection of data can be unruly. But when parsed well, it can show correlations for everything from disease management and prevention to voter sentiment and elected officials.

In 2013, we’ll see a bigger push than ever before into working with Big Data. Those who can help manage these large, complex data sets will win new business across numerous industries.




Sentiment Mining

In 2012, MIT researchers proved that their algorithm could predict trending topics on Twitter within a 5% margin. But they aren’t the only ones working on a system to predict trends. Businesses, governments, activist organizations, PR agents and others hope to mine social data to understand sentiment.

How do we feel now about a particular candidate? Better yet, will we still care about that candidate in three days? These are the questions startups will endeavor to answer in the coming year.




Meme PowerIn 2012, a somewhat obscure Korean singer and comedian released a video on YouTube. It was since viewed 889 million times, beating a two-year-old record set by another Internet celebrity, Justin Bieber. Park Jae-sang, otherwise known as Psy, and his team are set to earn more than $8 million on this video alone.

Psy’s “Gangnam Style” video became an instant meme, copied, parodied and re-uploaded all over the world. Psy joins Clint Eastwood’s “Invisible Obama in an Empty Chair,” Ridiculously Photogenic Guy, McKayla Is Not Impressed and a number of other photo and video movements that drive significant traffic around the Internet.

It’s difficult to create a successful meme from scratch, but it’s becoming easier to predict a meme and capitalize on it using Tumblr, Twitter and other tools and networks.




PrivacyWe are uploading millions of photos every day to social networks, and in the process we’re attaching rich data along with them: who’s in the photo, where the photo was taken, even what equipment was used. Combined with social check-in services, which continually show our physical locations and who we’re with, a number of clever search tools have emerged that can effortlessly divulge a person’s name, age and interests simply by snapping a photo of his or her face.

While sophisticated users have expressed concerns about their privacy, younger mobile and social network users are more and more willing to share everything with everyone. Facebook continues to change its terms of service often, but most users aren’t aware of what personal information is being shared with the outside world. What – if anything – to do about our digital privacy will be an ongoing discussion throughout the next year.




Women

In 2012, one of the biggest and highest-profile venture capital firms, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, was hit with a sexual harassment suit by one of its partners. Meantime, a Google top executives, Marissa Mayer, left to become the CEO of the company’s longtime rival, Yahoo. Presidential candidate Mitt Romney, responding to a question about persistent inequalities in the workplace, said that he had “binders full of women” brought to him while he was governor of Massachusetts.

A cadre of smart, creative women have been hard at work – though hardly-noticed – leading product development, tech innovation and startups. Still, this group is being underserved in terms of content. (Not all women are content reading mommy blogs.) Groups such as TEDxWomen and advocates like Change the Ratio and TheLi.st are working to highlight both successes and inequalities. In 2013, we expect to see more woman receiving funding, speaking at conferences, being interviewed by mainstream media and getting recognition for their many contributions in tech and beyond. That means new verticals and channels with better content, too.




Regional ConflictsIn 2012, there were a number of troubling regional conflicts that were aided by – or blocked entirely from – digital media. As tensions heated up between the Syrian government and its rebels, the Internet in that country suddenly went dark. In Egypt, as a new government was forming, messaging systems, social networks and blogs were being used to coordinate protests in the very Tahrir Square where the previous regime was toppled.

For better or worse, mobile phones, social media and access to lightweight content management systems have escalated regional conflicts. Due to the success of organized movements in the Middle East, more groups will use these resources to catalyze their own revolutions around the world in the coming year.




Mobile MalwareJust as we were figuring out how to open attachments in our mobile email, a new crop of malware has started to circulate.

Google’s mobile OS (Android) has become a target for malicious attacks such that in 2013, it will be more likely that a consumer’s phone will become infected than her personal computer.




Facebook Unravels2012 has been a difficult year for Facebook. Although many lauded its acquisition of the popular photo sharing network Instagram, the company’s IPO was fraught with controversy and share prices have fallen below investor expectations.

Facebook’s consistent challenge has been in monetizing its user base without causing backlash. In the fall, Facebook changed its EdgeRank algorithm and some other features such that brands lost significant visibility. Meantime, in order for friends and fans to see posts, Facebook started to require payment in exchange for guaranteed placement within the newsfeed.

The pace of new Facebook account registrations has slowed, and advertisers and brands are growing weary of pay-to-play policies. Will Facebook close in 2013? That’s highly unlikely. But it does appear that without more user empathy, the company may permanently alienate the very base it’s trying to monetize.




Industry Disruption: Book PublishingMILESTONES – In 2012, the New York Times gave a very positive review of a self-published book. Another self-published trilogy, “Fifty Shades of Grey” went to the top of best seller lists at USAToday, NYT and Amazon.

Meantime, there was a merger between two of the big six publishers, Penguin and Random House, and there were too many book store closures to count across North America. Antitrust lawyers went after big publishers, settling with HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster and Hachette, while it filed suit against Apple, Penguin and Macmillan.

CHALLENGES – Outside observers argue that the book publishing industry has closed itself off to modern work styles, distribution tools and digital media, referencing the success of self-published authors and new platforms like Amazon’s Kindle Direct Publishing. That said, it’s also evident that in order to produce valuable, high-quality work, there are big pieces of this legacy system that must still function, the very least of which includes experienced editors.

OPPORTUNITIES – 2013 will be a volatile year for book publishers and marketplaces, but it can be cause for great innovation, too. We see numerous possibilities to incorporate the best of traditional publishing with the latest efficient, user-friendly digital tools and devices. The good news is that consumers are as hungry as ever for quality reading.




Industry Disruption: Newspaper PublishingMILESTONES – Late in Q4, News Corporation announced that its star digital product, The Daily app, would close. Audiences for news content grew, though print circulation declined. A study from the Pew Research Center revealed that losses in print advertising dollars outpaced gains in digital revenue by a factor of 10 to 1.

CHALLENGES – While some newspapers have made great strides in creating innovative distribution channels for their content, the fact remains that operationally, newspapers functioned the same in 2012 as they did in 1912, even as all of the elements involved in creating the newspaper – as well as consumers themselves – have transformed in response to our new digital realities.

OPPORTUNITIES – 2013 is a good year to introduce radical change. Why 2013? Because without significant updates, many newspapers will not survive until the following year. What are the new profit centers worth considering? How should a modern newsroom be structured, and should that include the traditional roles to which we’ve grown accustomed? Is a two-site strategy (one paid, one free) the best model for all newspapers? What should news cost, and how can newspapers create value for their consumers? How can newspapers direct exceptional content at the right time, to the appropriate device? Surfacing creative solutions will not be difficult. The real challenge will be in shifting mindsets across the industry.




Industry Disruption: LibrariesMILESTONES – In 2012, many libraries were forced to dramatically cut staff hours, reduce new acquisitions and close branches. Even schools faced those same problem: James Logan High School in Union City, California, closed its entire library for the year due to a lack of budget.

CHALLENGES – Traditionally, libraries have received their funding from local, state and federal government sources as well as via individual contributions and library foundations. With money tight everywhere, libraries are being forced to operate with fewer resources. Adding to their troubles: many patrons now use the library as a help desk for their technical questions (mobile phones, tablets). In some library systems, the bulk of their active patrons are those only looking for jobs at public computer banks or kids who need shelter after school.

OPPORTUNITIES – Libraries are a critical part of a well-educated, civically-minded society. They certainly have been throughout history, and that shouldn’t change because we now have the Internet. Libraries must find ways to set benchmarks and concretely measure their successes. Webbmedia Group has released a Key Performance Indicators Toolkit, which is available for free to any library that wants to start tracking data. Meantime, thinking creatively about outside partnerships, inviting programmers and entrepreneurs to be a part of library culture and developing new enrichment programs will help create a stronger base of support. Libraries should also consider new profit centers and alternative memberships, both of which are possible while still meeting funding requirements as a city/ county or nonprofit agency.




Industry Disruption: EducationMILESTONES – In 2012, Khan Academy offered 215 million lessons online for free. Some were expected (differential calculus), while others were published as real-world events, like the Fiscal Cliff, were unfolding. Just as we lauded Khan Academy for offering valuable education resources online, lots of very smart teenagers were looking at such luminaries as Mark Zuckerberg and Steve Jobs and making a decision to skip college.

CHALLENGES – It isn’t the case that consumers don’t want an education. It’s that a D.I.Y. culture has started to permeate high schools just as digital media has proven to democratize learning. College is expensive, and some argue that the standard curriculum wastes too much time. Why should a software engineer be forced to endure six credits of physical fitness? At the same time, there are numerous problems with some of the accredited online degree programs. Some are easy to game, and hiring managers aren’t yet convinced of the efficacy of those programs.

OPPORTUNITIES – Why aren’t institutes of higher learning thinking more creatively? We applaud Stanford and MIT for making some of their courses available online, but we also believe that a quality education should cost at least as much as a cup of Starbucks coffee. We believe that it’s time for accreditation boards to revisit standardized curricula, for universities to reconsider tenure, for the established digital platforms (Blackboard especially) to take a hard look at their user interfaces and for all of academia to welcome active innovation into their hallowed halls.




Industry Disruption: Financial ServicesMILESTONES – The financial services industry is vast, with myriad complications and lots of new competitors. At the end of 2012, one of the largest global companies, Citigroup, announced a 4% reduction – 11,000 jobs – in its staff. Additional challenges, such as cyber security, using social media effectively, managing customer service via digital challenges, have held progress in the financial services sector back.

CHALLENGES – When companies grow to become very large over time, innovation – especially in critical areas – is often stifled. In the financial services sector, some companies have published legal policy on using social media...but haven’t followed through with positive case studies and best practices for their marketing staffs to implement. We have all the technical tools to enable complete at-home banking, but many banks haven’t created capacity for personal digital transactions.

OPPORTUNITIES – The financial services sector, while slow to embrace digital media and technology, can use the next calendar year to develop solid, pragmatic strategies for social media, on-site digital banking, mobile payments and more. Given the pace of change within financial services, enabling small teams the freedom work on these projects and push through incremental change would be ideal.




About Webbmedia Group

Webbmedia Group is a digital strategy agency that studies disruptive technologies and advises a worldwide client base of Fortune 100 and Global 1000 companies, government agencies, media organizations, universities and foundations. We help organizations through digital transformations by providing original problem solving, cutting-edge ideas, thought leadership, creative strategic plans and hands-on brainstorming workshops.

Learn more at http://www.webbmediagroup.com




The Webbmedia Group DifferenceOne-on-One Interviews With Key StakeholdersWe have detailed conversations with key stakeholders at the beginning of every client engagement. We listen very carefully to perceived needs, work to understand individual and corporate challenges and get to know the personalities that make up a company's culture. We don't make assumptions about any organization or the work being done.

Strategies That Can Be Implemented By Your OrganizationOur goal is to develop creative, solution-oriented strategies that lead to great performance results. We're innovative, but we're also pragmatic in our approach with every client. Webbmedia Group has an exceptional track record of actionable strategies that were executable by existing staff. We don't offer one-size-fits-all methodologies or huge projects that look great on paper but can't be managed. We do, however, push our clients to explore big ideas and radical change – but in a highly transparent, calculated way.

Faster DiscoveryTechnology, media and our digital marketplaces are evolving quickly. Webbmedia Group is constantly tracking emerging technology, consumer behavior and the media landscape in order to anticipate industry disruption, evaluate startups and forecast trends.




The Webbmedia Group DifferenceTruly Exceptional IdeasWhen the industry zigs, we not only zag...we invent an entirely new way to move around. Webbmedia Group specializes in hyper-creative, original problem solving. Our ideas engage our client's current and future needs with strategies and plans that can be implemented.

Fewer Clients, Deeper DivesWebbmedia Group is a boutique consulting firm, and we work with a limited number of clients at one time. As a result, we provide hands-on, concierge service not offered in other firms. We are selective about our portfolio to ensure that the client is a good fit for us, and that we're a good fit for the client. We make ourselves available well beyond usual business hours and we manage each relationship directly. Clients have our personal mobile phone numbers, special email addresses created just for them and are invited to the various professional gatherings and events we host throughout the year.




ServicesDigital StrategyWebbmedia Group is a digital strategy agency that studies disruptive technologies and advises a worldwide client base of Fortune 100 and Global 1000 companies, government agencies, media organizations, universities and foundations. We help organizations through digital transformations by providing cutting-edge ideas, thought leadership, creative strategic plans, workshops and original problem solving.

Bespoke Professional ExperiencesIn addition to our strategy and ideation work, we also offer bespoke events and professional experiences. We host a number of personalized events for our clients as well as a few invite-only Big Idea Buffets and other gatherings throughout the year, where we bring together small groups of brilliant thinkers and challenge them to work collectively on solving industry or professional problems.




To learn more about working with Webbmedia Group, to schedule an appointment or to inquire about having one of our consultants speak at your upcoming event, please contact us:

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