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Virtual Reality is HOT!
Virtual Reality was HOT! .. In 1995..
Joining the HIT Lab in Seattle (1994)
• Leading VR research center • Only $250K for 1500 polygons/sec! • 320 x 240 pixel HMDs
My VR Predictions (1996)
• I knew everyone would use VR when: • HMDs were cheap (<$500) • Computers generate millions of polys/sec • Tracking was inexpensive • Good 3D input devices
Here Come the Cheap HMDs
• April 2007 Computer World • VR Voted 7th on list of 21 biggest technology flops
• MS Bob #1
Lessons Learned
• Don’t believe the hype • Many factors determine technology acceptance
• Human Centered Design/Design for users
• Need to move from Demo to Production • Profitable niche markets first
• Follow the money
VIRTUAL REALITY 2.0
Virtual Reality is HOT! (Again..)
Why 2016 won’t be like 1996 • It’s not just VR anymore • Huge amount of investment • Inexpensive hardware platforms • Easy to use content creation tools • New devices for input and output • Proven use cases – no more Hype!
• Most important: Focus on User Experience
It’s Not Just VR – Invisible Interfaces
Rekimoto, J. and Nagao, K. 1995. The world through the computer: computer augmented interaction with real world environments. In Proceedings of the 8th Annual ACM Symposium on User interface and Software Technology. UIST '95. ACM, New York, NY, 29-36.
From Reality to Virtual Reality
Reality Augmented Reality Virtual Reality
Mixed Reality
Milgram, P., & Kishino, F. (1994). A taxonomy of mixed reality visual displays. IEICE TRANSACTIONS on Information and Systems, 77(12), 1321-1329.
Ubiquitous Computing/Internet of Things
Smart Home Sensor Networks
Augmented Reality
Virtual Reality
Gartner Hype Cycle
Gartner Hype Cycle
AR/VR Investments
• > $1 Billion USD from VCs, > 120 deals in US alone
Virtual Reality Landscape
AR Market
Inexpensive Hardware • A Smart Phone gives you an VR/AR experience
• > 1.4 Billion new iOS/Android devices shipped in 2016
• Mobile VR • Google Cardboard
• > 1 million devices distributed • < $5 USD from China
• Handheld AR • Qualcomm Vuforia platform
• > 100,000 developers • > 20,000 apps available on iOS/Android
Easy to Use Tools • Content Creation
• Immersive video – 360Heros • 3D models from photos - 123D Catch
• Drag and Drop • BuildAR (www.buildar.org) • CraftAR (Catchoom)
• Game Engine Support • Unity3D/Unreal plug-in support
New Devices for Input and Output • New Display Technology
• Waveguide Displays (Lumus) • Retinal Displays (MagicLeap) • Contact Lens (Innovega) • Projected AR (CastAR)
• New Input Technology • Depth Sensing (Tango) • Gesture Capture (SoftKinetic)
Lumus DK40
Google Tango
Proven Use Cases • Need to validate the technology
• Example: QuiverVision • AR colouring book application • Proven to improve writing skills • ~ 2 million downloads on iOS/Play stores
• Example: Pain Relief • VR pain relief for burn/trauma • Significantly reduce pain perception • Firsthand Technologies
Focus on User Experience • Understand user needs
• Consider whole user needs • Physical, emotional, cognitive, social, cultural
• Perceptual issues
• Design for those needs • Rapid prototyping • Virtual, physical elements, interaction metaphor
• Test your design • Formal, informal testing
TAT Augmented ID
What Makes a Good MR Experience?
• Compelling • Engaging, ‘Magic’ moment
• Intuitive, ease of use • Uses existing skills
• Anchored in physical world • Seamless combination of real and digital
Demo: colAR
• Turn colouring books pages into AR scenes • Markerless tracking, use your own colours..
• Try it yourself: http://www.colARapp.com/
BUILDING THE BUSINESS
AR Business Today
• Around $600 Million USD in 2014 (>$2B 2015) • > 80% Games and Marketing applications
Market Projections
cf. 2014 computer game market = $84 Billion USD
Gartner Hype Cycle
Getting from Here to There • New markets
• Medical • Education • Industry • Etc
• New applications • Training • Collaboration • Information Presentation • Etc
Example: Commercial Systems
• Ngrain • http://www.ngrain.com/ • Training authoring tool • Model based AR tracking
• ScopeAR • http://www.scopear.com/ • Remote assistance • Image based tracking
Example: Social Panoramas
• Google Glass • Capture live image panorama (compass + camera)
• Remote device (tablet) • Immersive viewing, live annotation
Reichherzer, C., Nassani, A., & Billinghurst, M. (2014). Social panoramas using wearable computers. In Mixed and Augmented Reality (ISMAR), 2014 IEEE International Symposium on (pp. 303-304). IEEE.
Example: AR remote collaboration
• Local user uses AR display • Move real objects using AR cues
• Remote expert on desktop interface • Place 3D objects with independent view
Tait, M., & Billinghurst, M. The Effect of View Independence in a Collaborative AR System. Computer Supported Cooperative Work (CSCW), 1-27.
Research Needed in Many Areas
• Social Acceptance • Overcome social problems
• Cloud Services • Cloud based storage/processing
• Ubiquitous AR/VR • Using AR/VR with Ubicomp/IoT technologies
• Collaborative Experiences • AR/VR teleconferencing
• Etc..
Exmple: Social Acceptance
• People don’t want to look silly • Only 12% of 4,600 adults would be willing to wear AR glasses • 20% of mobile AR browser users experience social issues
• Acceptance more due to Social than Technical issues • Needs further study (ethnographic, field tests, longitudinal)
Crossing Boundaries
Jun Rekimoto, Sony CSL
Invisible Interfaces
Jun Rekimoto, Sony CSL
Example: Visualizing Wifi Networks
• Mobile app to view Wifi networks • Real time visualization of surrounding network • Audio/visual feedback based on signal strength • http://www.architectureofradio.com/
CONCLUSION
Summary
• AR/VR in 2016 will not be like 1996 • Focus on more than VR • Low barrier to Entry • Emphasis on User Experience
• To build the Business • Move into new markets, develop proven case studies • Research core areas
• Social acceptance, collaborative tools, etc
