USSTRATCOM Cyber & Space 2011 Mark Maybury

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Headquarters U.S. Air Force

I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e


Alternative Futures Panel USSTRATCOM Space and Cyber Symposium

Omaha, Nebraska

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15 November 2011

Dr. Mark T. Maybury

Chief Scientist

United States Air Force

SAF/PA Case 2011-0647


Panelists

Mr. William Scott, Author,

Counterspace: The Next Hours of World War III

Dr. Herb Lin, Chief Scientist, Computers Science and

Telecommunications Board, The National Academies

Dr. Andrew Krepinevich, President, Center for

Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Author,

7 Deadly Scenarios

Dr. David White, Senior Manager, Computer Systems

and technologies Group, Sandia National Laboratories

Mr. James M. Brase, Deputy Program Director for

Intelligence, Office of Strategic Outcomes, Lawrence

Livermore National Laboratory

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Predicting the Future

“Aircraft flight is impossible.” Lord Kelvin

“The [flying] machines will eventually be fast; they

will be used in sport but they should not be thought

of as commercial carriers.” Octave Chanute, 1910

“There has been a great deal said about a 3,000 mile

rocket. In my opinion such a thing is impossible for

many years. I think we can leave that out of our

thinking.” Vannevar Bush, 1945

“…the Gas Turbine can hardly be considered a

feasible application to airplanes…” Committee with

Von Karman, Millikan, Kettering, 1941

(Reported by N. Augustine)


Questions

What is the likely future of Space and Cyber?

What are the key risks in the future, in particular, what

are the primary trends in terms of threats,

vulnerabilities, and consequences?

What are the possible rewards?

Where should our focus be to drive advantageous

futures?

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Air Force Technology Horizons Priority Technology Areas

Autonomous systems

Autonomous reasoning and learning

Resilient autonomy

Complex adaptive systems

V&V for complex adaptive control

Collaborative/cooperative control

Autonomous mission planning

Cold-atom INS

Chip-scale atomic clocks

Ad hoc networks

Polymorphic networks

Agile networks

Laser communications

Frequency-agile RF systems

5 www.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-100727-053.pdf

Spectral mutability

Dynamic spectrum access

Quantum key distribution

Multi-scale simulation technologies

Coupled multi-physics simulations

Embedded diagnostics

Decision support tools

Automated software generation

Sensor-based processing

Behavior prediction and anticipation

Cognitive modeling

Cognitive performance augmentation

Human-machine interfaces

Most Future Space and Cyber Technologies


Energy Horizons: Air Force Energy S&T Vision

Mission-focused S&T roles (lead,

follow, watch) in near-, mid-, far-term

Air: Efficient engines and structures,

distributed virtual training, flight

formation

Space: Efficient photovoltaics,

efficient ground stations, fractionated

constellations

Cyber: Efficient cloud and HPC

Infrastructure: Secure microgrids,

Expeditionary energy, small modular

nuclear reactors, solar to petrol

Enabling: nanomaterials, biomimicry,

autonomy

Energy Horizons Vision

Assured energy advantage across air, space, cyberspace and infrastructure

Air

Space

Cyber

Infrastructure

Energy S&T advances can

revolutionize cost, readiness,

and resiliency

Air fuels and facilities/data

centers primary cost drivers

Benefits from systems,

operations, supply, and culture

Partnership and S&T leverage

essential

HPC: High Performance Computing 6

Recommendations Findings

AF/PA Case # 11-589


Space Trends

Bigger: Distributed communications architectures

Smaller: Rad-hard electronics, catching up to terrestrial node sizes

Diverse: Fractionated, composable satellites such as Software

Defined Radio (SDR) or even Cognitive Radio

More dangerous: Space is congested (debris, users) and contested

– the US operates critical national security capabilities within this

dangerous environment, so the capabilities are vulnerable

More competitive: Commercialization and internationalization

(e.g., SpaceX), however, US losing edge in space technology; ITAR

restrictions reduce global competitiveness of US companies

Less US talent: STEM Challenge as with cyber

www.aero.org/capabilities/cords/


Cyber Trends

Bigger: HPC: Petascale to exascale

• Programmable, performance (peta to exa), green

Smaller: Nanoelectronics (e.g., nanowires, memristers)

Diverse: Clusters, clouds, GPUs, FPGAs

More dangerous: Advanced threat, insider threat,

supply chain

More competitive: global hardware, software, talent

Embedded: 4.5M LOC in F-35, 90% of functionality

More complex: Interconnected

Greener: infrastructure and algorithms

Less US talent: STEM Challenge

(top500.org)

Source: www.dodlive.mil


A Perfect Storm

Complexity

Foreign

Supply

Threat

Vulnerabilities

Connectivity

Technology

Change

US Computing

Graduates

Expert Staff

nvd.nist.gov

1998 2008 2000 2002 2004 2006

-12% production engineers

14k in

2004

-5% program managers

Response

Timelines

Years

Cost Overruns

Seconds

-20% financial managers 1.7 k in

2001

~1M viruses in

2008

50K viruses in 2000

20-50%

Overruns

(GAO)

<10%

Overruns in 1950s


DoD and AFRL

Cyberspace Strategy Aligned

Align with others and grow AF expertise

AFRL Strategic Cyber Thrusts

Assure and Empower the Mission

Optimize Human-Machine Systems

Enhance Agility and Resilience

Invent Foundations of Trust and Assurance

Partner with acquisition

and operational communities

DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE STRATEGY FOR OPERATING IN CYBERSPACE

Strategic Initiative 1: Treat cyberspace as an operational domain to organize, train, and equip so that DoD can take full advantage of cyberspace’s potential

Strategic Initiative 2: Employ new defense operating concepts to protect DoD networks and systems

Strategic Initiative 3: Partner with other U.S. government departments and agencies and the private sector to enable a whole-of-government cybersecurity strategy

Strategic Initiative 4: Build robust relationships with U.S. allies and international partners to strengthen collective cybersecurity

Strategic Initiative 5: Leverage the nation’s ingenuity through an exceptional cyber workforce and rapid technological innovation


Observations

Increasing risk = f(threats, vulnerabilities, dependence,

and consequences)

Increasing capabilities and opportunities

Increasingly contested, congested, competitive

Global technology proliferation and acceleration

driving need for rapid acquisition model

Fiction can help shape futures

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