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Mr. Shigeo Nakamura provides an update on the Japanese rare earth market since the tragic earthquake and tsunami hit Japan at M
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Update on the Japanese Rare Earth markets
Metal Page Minor Metal conference in Beijing
September 13th-17th AMJ Shigeo Nakamura
Environmental issues
Fuel cells, hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles
Lighter(Ti、Mg) Smaller(RE Magnet) Li-Ion Battery(Li,Co)
N-H Battery(Ni, Nd, La,)
New Energy
Solar Battery(CIGS,CdTe,Si) Wind power(NdFeB Dy) Geo Thermal (Ti stainless) Biomass(Ti, Stainless) OTEC(Waste heat recovery) Smart Grid(Superconducting) Nuclear power (NdFeB Ti Zr)
Catalyst (automobile emissions):Pt,Pd,Os,Rd, Cracking of heavy oil(Mo,V,Co,Ni,W etc.)
Photo catalyst(Ti)
Environmental Economics and Environmental Metals
Rare metal material market is expanding
more globally
Energy saving technology
Sensor Technology LED(Ga,In)
Digital Technology
3R Technology
HEMS
3
Rare Earth Import Trends from 2001
till end of 2010
As Material
30,515Mt
41,407Mt 39,724Mt 34,330Mt
18,263Mt
Total quantity from January till June 2011 is 13,838Mt.
29,600Mt
Rare Earth import share from China and other countries.
90% 90%
86%
90%
Rare Earth import increased 930% in total amount for first half of 2011 compared from last year’s first half.
77% 85% 80%
4
Background of the recent drop in RE market
• Price adjustments in reaction to soaring market. • After the earthquake, (April to June) of this year
due to increased imports of inventory accumulation, since July the stock demand decline.
• Demand decreased In August because of summer season
• To determine the benefit speculators rushed to sell low in a hurry
• Australia (Lynas) and U.S. (Molycorp) came out in the future stability of supply.
Rare Earth chart (Nd & FeDy)
6 ジャスミン革命以降の異常な値上がり。
From US$60 to US$460(8 times increase)
From US$280 to US$2,960( 10 times)
Rae Earth chart (La2O3 & CeO2)
7
La Metal : from US$10 to US$150 and down to$90
Ce Metal : from US$10 to US$150 and down to US$88
• World reserves REO resources: 99Million t • Mining amount in 2009: 124,000 tons • Reserve-production ratio: 798 Years • Chinese Reserves:36,000,000 tons • USA Reserves:13,000,000 tons • CIS Reserves:19,000,000 tons • Australia Reserves:5,400,000 tons • India reserves:3,100,000 tons • Vietnam Reserves: over 2,000,000 Tons
8
World reserves of RE resources
Supply and demand of resources and avoidance of resource shortage
Risk avoidance
Supply of the resources
Shortage of the resources
New demand for resources
Development of substitution materials & Recycle
New development of new deposit
Now Future 9
Development of
substitution materials
• Panasonic, Mitsubishi Chemical, Industrial Technology Research: 20% reduction in Tb and Dy for phosphor performance.
• Hitachi and the University of Nottingham, UK: Development of alternative magnetic materials containing Dy.
• TDK and Toyota: 40% success in reducing motor Dy in HEV • ULVAC, Mitsui, Tohoku University: ITO (transparent electrode)
during development goals to halve the amount of indium. • Nissan Motor Co. and Nagoya University: Developing alternative
materials for automotive exhaust gas purification apparatus platinum.
• The Japanese government announced that a budget of several billion yen aid for 10 years from 2012 for the development of substitution materials of rare earths. (Nikkei, 5 September)
From Nikkei of Aug. 19th 2011
Rare earth project Map
11
Dongpao Vietnam
Sojiz/toyota 5000-7000Mt
Mount Weld
Lynas 22,000Mt
Nolans bore
Arafura 20,000Mt
Stepnogorsk Kazakhstan
Sumitomo Corp 3,000Mt
Orissa India
Toyota 4, 000Mt
Stenkanbskural South Africa
Great western mineral 2,700Mt
Mt.Pas Molycorp 40,000Mt
Green land Greenland Mineral
20,000Mt
Holidas Lake Great western
mineral 3,000Mt-5,000Mt
Thor Lake
Avalon venture 10,000Mt
Lugingol,Mushgai Khudag
Mongol 10,000Mt
Vietnam Dong Pao Rare Earth deposit
12
Dong Pao deposit was researched by JOMEC from 2001 and Bastenasite ore boby contained 3,170,000Mt at REO 7.06% to 10.63%. Sojiz and Toyota tsusho is developing.
13
Mongolian Rare Earth deposit
Other REE deposits Mushgai Khudag REE deposit
Lugiin gol
Khan Bogd
Mushgai khudag
Khalzan Burged
Kazakhstan Rare Earth Project
14
Sumitomo Corporation established the Rare Earth Joint venture company with Kazatomprom for 3,000Mt REO base
project.
JOGMEC sign contract for technical assistance of Rare Earth recovery
from Uranium residue of Kazatomprom.
15
Mountain Pass Molycorp
• Molycorp will increase production plan from 20,000Mt to 40,000Mt (REO).
Sumitomo corporation will study US$ 130 million investment with JOGMEC for stable supply to Japanese market of RE materials.
16
Mt. Weld project Australia • Sojiz and Rynas agreed
90,000 Mt of RE supply for 10 years to Japanese market.
• JOGMEC and SOJIZ takes 30% of the share from Lynas in 2011.
・Australian Lynas will produce 22,000Mt of Rare Earth from 2013. ・Separation and refining process in Malaysia settledafter floating ore dressing in Australia.
17
Thor Lake Project Canada
Y La Ce Pr Nd Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu 55% 0.1 0.02 0.1 0.2 1.8 0.7 11.6 2.5 15.6 3.1 5.4 0.6 2.2 0.7
Others Rare Earth Project • Nolans Bore by Arafura Resources Limited(Australia) • Frontier Rare Earth project (South Africa) • Great Western Minerals(LCM) western cape province • Vergenoeg Mining Company (south Africa) • Greenland minerals and energy (Greenland) • Pitinga mines( Brazil) Neo Material & Mitsubishi corporation
• Kutessai by Summit Atom rare earth company (Kazakhstan) Kazatom prom and Sumitomo corporation
• Chavara, Manavalakurichi (Indian rare earth) • Ytterby(Canada) Benson(USA) Laocai(Vietnam) Mabel
creek(Australia) as Grass-root exploration by JOGMEC
18
Update on the Japanese minor metals markets
Metal Page Minor Metal conference in Beijing
September 13th-17th AMJ Shigeo Nakamura
Minor Metal Market Trends in Japanese market
• New business in Japan after the earthquake 3.11
• Overview of electronics, functional, structural materials and base metals.
• The development of environmental metals for the new energy and HEV fields.
• New research and development and international relocation and hollowing out of Japanese industry
Classification of the Metals Market
Element character Market Scale
Uneven distribution
Influence to The market
(A) Electronics
Use
In,Cd Ga, Ge,Ta, Nb, Co, Li, Sr, Bi,
The field of IT materials are easy to be affected by the down stream industry than the upper stream.
100Mt~10,000Mt
Uneven distribution
Negotiated transaction speculation & manipulation
(B) Functional
Use
Ti, RE, Zr, Sb, Mg,W, Mo,Te,Se
Functional material’s market is complicated because of the political reason.
10,000Mt~ 100,000Mt
Uneven distribution
It is easy to get on artificial trade policy.
(C) Structure
materials
Ni,Cr,Mn,Mo,W、V, FeNb,Si
It is easy to be affected by the business conditions of a stainless steel and steel market.
100,000Mt~ 1,000,000Mt
quantity of existence is enough
The influence of stainless steel fields are strong
(D) Base Metal
Cu, Zn, Pb, Al, Sn, Ni
LME commodity Over 1Million ton
quantity of existence is enough
finance phenomenon is remarkable
Rare Metal Function and the Use of environmental metal in advanced Industries
Ga,Ge,In,Te,Bi,Cd, (Electronic materials)
A compound semiconductor, the field of FPD, a target, LED, a Pet resin catalyst, light industry, infrared rays, a fluorescent substance, others
R.E. (Same as above) Optical lens, magnetism, fluorescence, a catalyst, electron, superconductor
Ta Nb(Same as above) capacitor, optics, Hard Alloy, electron, special steel and heat-resistant
Sr Ba (Same as above) Magnetism materials, ferrite, X-rays cover, Ceramic condenser, pipe ball glass
Zr Hf (Same as above) Atomic energy, fireproof thing, electronic materials, fine ceramic, sensor
Li Be(Same as above) A secondary battery, special glass, an oxide single crystal, aviation, spring materials
Ti Mg(function material) Aviation / Desalination conversion / chemical plant / generator / atomic energy / iron and steel / Al addition
W Mo( Same as above) Hard alloy tool, Heiss, electronic parts, a catalyst, an alloy, a burning board
Ni Co( Same as above) Stainless steel, an alloy, plating, a battery, magnetism, a catalyst, heat resistance
Sb Se( Same as above) incombustibility agent, a battery, a decrease friction alloy, glass clearness agent, Mn refinement
Electronics Metals (Indium & Ga) Up Trend
23
Gallium and indium with a peak in May and then, conditions have remained weak
Electronics Metals Trend (Cobalt & LiCO3) Stable
’10 Jan. ’09 June
24 Co is US$/Lb LiCo3 is RMB/Kg
Lithium and cobalt are heavy stock, still tends to lower future quotations
Functional Metals Trend (Titanium, APT) going up
’10 Jan. ’09 June
MRB Chart
25
Titanium and tungsten have a strong demand in anticipation of high prices yet.
Functional Metals Trend (Antimony, Selenium) going up
’10 Jan. ’09 June
26
Sb and Se has peaked out in April, then followed by weak.
Base Metals Trend (LME Cu & LME Al) Down & Up
’10 Jan. ’09 June
MRB Chart
27
Copper and aluminum are weak in terms of supply and demand, then future trend will be depend on Chinese demand.
Precious metals trend
(Comex Gold & LME Ni)
28
Financial markets have a risk aversion to buying gold. Nickel is a weak trend in the stainless steel market.
(3 Trillion Yen) Silicon Wafer Photo Mask Photo resist
(70 Trillion yen) Car industry
(35trillion yen) Liquid crystal TV plasma TV DVD Digital mobile music game console digital camera &video
(14 Trillion yen) Mobile phone
(22 Trillion Yen Personnel computer
(11 Trillion yen) Electronics parts printed wiring board Ceramic condenser crystal oscillator connector switch
(8 Trillion Yen) Flat Panel Display Liquid Crystal market Plasma Display EL Field emission
(28Trillion Yen) Semiconductor Micro processor DRAM System LSI Analog Discreet
(5Trillion Yen) Flat Panel display Glass Filter Back light Color filter LCDDriver polalizing Plate Light refractor (1 Trillion Yen) General electronics parts/Epoxy resin/GlassMaterials/Alminium plate/Ceramic plate/Crystals
(3.3 Trillion Yen) Nonferrous metal, Noble metal, Rare Metals Magnetic materials Fluorescent substance Condenser Semiconductor Semi conductive compound Battery materials Heat electric element Lenz materials Hard tool materials Powder metallurgy Light metals Super alloy Catalyst materials Fine chemicals materials
Electronics 9 Trillion Yen
Rare Metal 3.3 Trillion Yen
Electronic device 47Trillion yen
Set machinery 141 Trillion yen
Market size of digital industry
Othello Game of the Industrial structure
(1) Resource industry
(2) Material Industry
(3) Parts Industry
(4) Assembly industry
(5) Intelligent Industry
car exhaust gas purification catalyst
Flat Panel Display
LIB・NH
Rare Earth Magnet
Electronic parts liquid crystal
Environmental safeguard
Clean Energy
Energy Saving ECO-MACHINARY
Information home Electricity
Photo-catalyst toxic substance
resolution
A fuel cell solar battery
Digital camera Digital appliance
Mobile phone
LED
1trillion Yen Market
78 Trillion Yen
96 trillion Yen
5.3 Trillion Yen
Environmental field supports to the Japanese economy.
New Energy
The trend of the embironmental metals demand.
Electronics materials (information household appliance)
Base Metals (Social infrastructure)
Structure materials (Eco House)
Functional materials (HEV, Aviation and New Energy)
Environmental Metal's Demand
Special Steel
car exhaust gas purification catalyst
Hard alloy tool
Secondary Battery LIB・NH
Rare Earth Magnet Small motor
Electronics Parts LCD
Pd,Pt,Rd,Ce
W,Co,Ti,Mo,V
Li,Co,Ni,RE
Nd,Dy,Co
Ga,Ta,Ni,Zr,Nb,Pt RE(Dy,Ho,Y) In
Ni,Cr,Mo,Co,Mn,V
自動車 (HEV,EV)
Energy-saving home appliance
flat panel television
Digital Camera Optical article
Mobile phone
Car Steel sheet
advanced robot
Environmental metal's use
Smart Grid HEMS
Ni,Cr,Mo (Stainless) W,Co,Ta (Drilling Bid)
CIGS Cd,Te
Si Solar Ru-Type
Ga,In,As (LED)
Y,Tb,Eu,La,Ce (Fluorescent)
Pt,Pd(Catalyst) Pd(Hydrogen
Separation Membrane)
Ni,Cr,Mo (Stainless Steal)
Ti (Cooling Parts) Zr ( Fuel cladding )
NdFeB(RE Magnet) Li,Co,Ni,Mm (LIB, Ni-H)
Pt,Pd,Rh(Catalyst)
Solar Battery
Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Energy & Environmental
issues Nd,Dy,SmFeN (RE Magnet)
LED・Fluorescent Geothermal power
Nuclear Power ECO Car EV・HEV
Wind Power ECO House
Japan's future new business
34
Conclusion (Future Forecast) • Electronic materials market, once the minor metal's
market was unstable and will recover, increasing speculation and price manipulation.
• EV and HEV market is accelerating, and rare metal material market is expanding more globally.
• Remarkable development of the secondary battery market, the market becomes more active, such as lithium and cobalt and rare earth elements.
• Development of new energy field (especially solar power and wind power) will influenced to the expansion of rare metals and rare earth market segments,
• After the earthquake, Japanese materials industry is forced to expand to overseas. Meanwhile, research and development for new energy and environment sector will be growing more.