TSMO & Reliability

February 4, 2010

Transportation System Management and Operations & Travel Time Reliability

Presentation by Marais Lombard, PE

Introduction

• What is Transportation System Management and Operations (TSMO)?

• Why Travel Time Reliability?

• What is Changing the Transportation Landscape?

• How Should we Respond?

Background

• Federal & State Transportation Policy Background– Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act

(ISTEA, 1991)– Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-

21, 1998)– Safe, Accountable, Flexible and Efficient

Transportation Equity Act A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU, 2005):

• Paradigm ShiftHistorical (Capacity) Future (TSMO)

Increase CapacityReduce Travel Time

Manage DemandImprove Reliability

What is TSMO?

• Optimized Management and Operations– Supply management– Demand management

• Focus Areas:– multimodal traffic management – traveler information – traffic incident management – transportation demand management

• Projects are Typically– Multi-modal– Cross-jurisdictional– Technology rich (ITS)

What is Travel Time Reliability?

• Travel time reliability is related to the uncertainty in travel times

• It is defined as the variation in day-to-day travel time for the same trip by: – purpose– origin/destination – time of day – mode– route

• Large variability = unreliable

Why Does Reliability Matter?

Example Day-to-Day Variation in Travel Time

Key Reliability Measures

Measure Definition Value Provided to User

Planning Time 95th percentile travel timeThe total travel time a traveler should allow to arrive on-time 95% of the time

Planning Time Index

The ratio of the Planning Time to the Ideal or Free Flow Travel Time

How much larger the potential total travel time is than the ideal or free-flow travel time

Buffer Index (%)

The 95th percentile travel time minus the average travel time divided by the average travel time

The extra time a traveler should allow to arrive on-time for 95 percent of all trips

Graphical Illustration of Reliability Measures

Sources of Congestion

How can Reliability be Improved?


1. Incorporate TSMO into Agency Institutional Architecture

Agencies with more comprehensive strategy applications that are increasingly integrated, standardized, and comprehensive distinguished from agencies with less well-developed TSMO activities through four key institutional features

Four Key Elements of InstitutionalArchitecture:• Awareness• Structure • Funding Priority • Partnerships

Typical DOT

Planning Operations Design

TSMO

Maintenance TSMO

TSMO

Where does TSMO fit in?


2. Provide more accurate and accessible travel time information

Surveillance and detection Pre-trip information Real-time informationRoadside messages

Modified travel behavior: Departure time Mode choice Route choice

Improved network capacity utilization and reliability


3. Develop safer, more efficient, and more intelligent vehicles

Source: www.intellidriveusa.org

Vehicle Technologies:• Vehicle Infrastructure

Integration• Driver Assistance Products


4. Manage Incidents, Work Zones and Special Events

– Pre-event • construction phasing• evacuation planning• service patrols

– Post-event • incident detection• coordinated response• work zone management

– Monitor and evaluate • infrastructure to determine

vulnerability • work zone management


5. Implement strategies and techniques to improve roadway performance

Reduce and encourage alternative travel

Multimodal travel

Single occupant travel reduction

Low-cost changes to the physical roadway section

Geometric design treatments

Access management

Lane treatments

Strategies that influence and respond to demand

Signal timing/ITS

Traffic demand metering

Variable speed limits

Congestion pricing

A Day in the Life of Reliability 1

“K” Guy is:• Before Work• Traveling to Work• Going for Lunch• Traveling back

Home• Conducting other

BusinessHow we can help:– Arterial and Freeway Data Management

• Pre-trip information • Road weather information

– Transit Traveler Information– Travel Options

• Telecommuting• Ride-share


“K” Guy is:• Before Work

• Traveling to Work• Going for Lunch• Traveling back Home• Conducting other

Business

How we can help:– Vehicle Technologies

• IntelliDrive• Advanced crash avoidance

– Integrated Transportation Operations• Adaptive Signal control• Transit signal priority• Variable speed limits

– Changeable Lane Assignments• Reversible lanes• Temporary shoulder use• Hard shoulder running


“K” Guy is:• Before Work• Traveling to Work

• Going for Lunch• Traveling back Home• Conducting other

Business

How we can help:– Integrated Multimodal Corridors

• Multimodal traveler information• Transit signal priority

– Advanced Transportation Automation Systems– Parking Management


“K” Guy is:• Before Work• Traveling to Work• Going for Lunch

• Traveling back Home

• Conducting other Business

How we can help:– Active Traffic Management– Freeway Systems

• Lane treatments• Ramp metering & closure• Electronic toll collection

– Incident Management• Automatic crash and incident detection, notification• On-scene incident management

– Work Zone Management– Vehicle Technologies


“K” Guy is:• Before Work• Traveling to Work• Going for Lunch• Traveling back

Home

• Conducting other Business

How we can help:– Commercial Vehicle

Operations• Freight Shipper Congestion

Information• Weight in Motion Technologies

– Smart Freight• Unobtrusive inspection technologies• Load matching software• Parking availability & reservations

What is Changing the Transportation Landscape?

• Demographics, Land Use and Urbanization

• Environment and Climate Change

• Energy Costs and Availability

• Technological Innovation

• Freight

• Finance, Road Pricing and Privatization

Demographics, Land Use and Urbanization

• Aging Population (baby boom from 1946 – 1960)– Driving – slower reaction time / less capacity– Suburban seniors aging in place– Increasing capabilities of seniors – and thus more

elderly drivers– Increasing transit

usage

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0-4 5-19 20-44 45-64 65-84 85+

Source: US Census Bureau

Environment and Climate Change

• Increased recognition of & response to climate change– highway vehicles (passenger cars and trucks)

accounted for 79% of transportation CO2 emissions in 2006.

– reduce emissions from passenger cars and especially from diesel trucks and trains

• Adverse weather pose a significant threat to the nation’s roads

Source: Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990 – 2005 (April 2007) www.epa.gov

http://www.epa.gov/

Energy Cost & Availability

• AEO2009 look beyond current economic and financial woes and focus on factors that drive U.S. energy markets – uncertain world oil prices – increasing use of renewable fuels– shift in the transportation fleet to more efficient

vehicles – improved efficiency in end-use

appliances – Hybrid vehicle sales

40 percent in 2030

Source: Energy Information Administration: Annual Energy Outlook 2009

Technology Innovation

• In-vehicle ITS– Vehicle Infrastructure Integration (Intellidrive)– Driver Assistance Products

• Communication expansion through widespread real-time traveler information

• Integrated transportation operations– Adaptive signal control– Incidents & special events management– Advanced Transportation Automation Systems– Next generation road weather info systems– Work zone management

• Various Freight Technologies

Freight

• AASHTO - 90% Increase in tons moved by 2035• Continued shift to just-in-time delivery systems

– More vehicles hauling smaller truck loads

• Countervailing trend towards larger trucks– Offer increased revenue per ton mile

• Freight and passenger traffic continue to share same network for most part – Future increase in passenger congestion will adversely

affect the freight traffic and vice-versa.

Finance, Road Pricing and Congestion

• Existing tax-based financing structure will cause:

– Gap between funds and infrastructure investment needs

– Increasing congestion & unreliable travel during peak periods

– Pavement and structure deterioration throughout system

We are currently in a Downward Cycle

}Net Effect

Less local, regional, and economic competitiveness

Trip Decision Process: Today

User Focuses towards auto, which usually wins on time:– Demand focused on single

mode; speed across time & space is reactionary

– User believes he’s already paid for a service he isn't receiving

– No guidance on which investments will yield the greatest value

– Difficult to revealed modal preference

– Demand is not balanced with supply, resulting in unreliability

The Vision: An Upward Cycle

}Net Effect

Improved local, regional, and economic competitiveness

Trip Decision Process: Ideal

User chooses what is most cost-efficient based on travel needs:– Demand is spread by time,

mode, space– Price is tied to value received– System usage provides revenue

to support program, innovation– User choices gives insight on

market preferences– System reliability is enhanced

& maintained

How Should we Respond?

Recommended Agency Path

• Introduce culture of service, innovation, and partnerships

• Prioritize projects per performance measures• Integrate Agency Path

– Mode– Jurisdiction– Functional responsibilities– Data– Public/Private Partnerships

• Deploy Current & New Technologies• Integrate Technologies

• Fuel tax funding for fees-for-service funding

Integration

User

Options

Funding

How Should we Respond?

Role of the Private Sector

• Important now– Data collection– Data fusion– Information distribution

• Private role will grow– Technologies– Innovation– Capabilities– Options– Risk Taking

Today (2010)

Public Sector Responsibilities

Private Sector Responsibilities

Future (20+years)

Public Sector Responsibiliti

es

Private Sector Responsibilities

The Future Transportation System

Drivers without information on options & pricing

Drivers with information on options & pricing

Reliability Information — Value & Effect

Conclusion

Essential Keys to Future Success

• Demand is balanced with supply

• The system is fully integrated

• User options (mode, time, space) are maximized and accessible

• Fees-for-service is the foundation

It is not possible to predict the futureIt is possible to prepare for the future