Trends in the World Traditional & Renewable Heating Markets

Trends in the World Traditional &

Renewable Heating Markets

Andrew Giles

China Refrigeration Show

April 10th 2014

2 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

Heating dominated by Europe but it is now a cold spot

Boiler markets growing and moving into condensing inside Europe, but not outside

Efficiency and Control on the top of the agenda – ErP and its impacts

Sanitary hot water heat pumps set to grow in China and USA & growth expected in Europe

Many new solution enter the market = Heat pump main renewable winner

Top 20 hvac manufacturers remain specialised by tehnology

2


World Heating Market Value by region, 2012

North America

Radiators 0%

UFH 7%

WH 74%

CB 5%

DB** 14%

Total: US$ 5,658 million

Radiators 1%

UFH 6%

WH 79%

CB 2%

DB 12%

Japan

Total: US$ 5,214 million

Radiators 23%

UFH 11%

WH 23%

CB 4%

DB 39%

Europe* Total: US$ 18,897 million

• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,

Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech

Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine

** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.

Population (million inhabitants)

USA + Canada Europe Japan China

352 778 127 1,360

3

China Total: US$ 7,100 million

Radiators 20%

UFH 19%

WH 47%

CB 5%

DB 9%


World Heating hot and cold spots, 2013

Warm spots ≥10-20%

Cold spots <0%

Hot spots ≥20%

Cool spots ≥0-10%

2012/2011 value growth

Belgium

Russia

China

North America

Turkey

Netherlands

Sweden

Spain Japan

France Germany

Italy

Norway

South Korea

Products included: Domestic boilers, commercial boilers, traditional water heaters, radiators & wet underfloor heating.

UK

4

Poland

Iran


Domestic boilers - main EU heating markets

Total domestic boiler sales, 2012 - 2017

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2012

2013

2017

Sales will pick up in

most European

markets

‘000 units

5


Technology shift

Domestic gas & oil boiler sales, 2012 - 2017

Outside the EU market

12% 15%

88%

85%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2012 2017

Inside the EU market ‘000 units ‘000 units

70%

85%

30%

15%

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2012 2017

non-condensing

condensing

6


ErP - Impact on products

Increase in Combined and Hybrid systems Eco Design

A +++ ≥150%

A ++ ≥125%

A + ≥98%

A ≥90%

B ≥82%

C ≥75%

D ≥36%

E ≥34%

Cogeneration Gas HP

Condensing

boilers

Non-

condensing

boilers

Ground /Water to

water HP

Air to water HP

From 26/9/2015

products with Label

D to G are no longer

allowed to be sold

Hybrid Heat Pumps

Combined CB + ST system

+ enhanced Controls

Fuel cell

Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015

7

http://www.chaffoteaux.fr/des-solutions-produits-et-systemes/energies-renouvelables/chaudieres-hybrides/talia-green-hybrid.html


Combining systems

Product label

High efficiency

gas boiler

Solar thermal

system (VT)

Temperature

controls

System label example:

89%

6%

4%

+

+

System

efficiency 99%

A + ≥98%

System label

Separate labelling for

Space Heating and SHW.

8


World Heat Pump 2020 Outlook

9

22% 17%

10%

19%

7%

15%

4% 6%

18% 18%

7% 1%

51%

0% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,0002012 2020 CAGR 2012-2020

27%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

China

-

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020 growth units

growth units


European Heat Pump market

2012 – 2017

CAGR

2012 – 2017

Cylinder-

integrated WH:

17%

Split:

14%

Exhaust-air:

1%

Monobloc:

5%

Ground /

Water: 1%

2013 Ground/Water sales:

64,200

Split: 84,300

Monobloc: 78,800

Cylinder-integrated WH:

156,300 Exhaust air:

13,800

Based on data for: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, UK

10

Split: 153,700

Monobloc: 73,200

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Cylinderintegrated HPWH

Split A/W Monoblock A/W Exhaust air HP Ground source HP

2012

2013

2017

units


Up until 2020

11

Products /

technologies

reaching the

market

dfe 2009/10

– 10

2012 2015 2017 2020 2019

Launch FC (Japan)

Resid. Gas

HP

Resid.FC

in

Europe Solar

cooling

Energy

Storage

Systems

Smart Grid + Energy

Homes HEMS

CO2 VRF

CO2 HP

Micro-CHP

ICE/ Stirling Smart

Meters

2000 – 2008

Expansion of

electric HP

and

Solar

Thermals

S y s t e m I n t e g r a t i o n

Hybrid HP


European heating controls

12

‘000 units

Traditional heating controls sales (DE, F, UK), 2012 / 2020

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2012 2020

TRV other valves

dampers/actuators system controls

Room Thermostats

22% growth

72%

94%

81%

28%

6%

19%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

France UK Germany

Smart home controls*

Traditional heatingcontrols

Traditional & smart home controls market, 2012

€ million


How competitive are renewables

in Europe

13

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell

Operating cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell

Germany

UK

Lifetime cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)


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