Toekomstvisie Chemie - toekomstscenario's

© 2011 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

Based on desk research, expert interviews and workshops 4 possible

industry scenarios have been identified...

0

Dutch Chemical Industry Scenarios

Time

Today

Scenarios

• Scenarios are alternative future

environments in which todays

decisions may be played out

• Scenarios are not predictions

but descriptions of different

futures specifically designed to

highlight the uncertainties

inherent in specific strategic

issues

• Alternative scenarios provide a

way of focusing on the future

without locking in on one

forecast to the exclusion of

other possibilities Technological

Revolution

• Rapid technological

developments

Solar Revolution

• Solar PV decreases

energy prices

Green Revolution

• High climate change

and sustainability

awareness in society

Fragmented Future

• The world will fragment

in order to ensure self

sufficiency


...which differ around six dimensions

1

Dimension Description

Economy

Growth development

and international

alignment of

economic growth

Low High

Decoupled Coupled

Governance

and

regulation

Global governance

model and its

strength

ProtectionismGlobal

coordination*

Loose Strict

Energy and

commodity

availability

(international)

availability of energy

and feedstock

Abundance Scarcity

Climate and

environment

Way in which climate

and environmental

issues are addressed

Local Global

Focused Broad

Ethics,

culture and

(customer)

behaviour

Social acceptance of

new technologies and

focus on climate and

environment change

No focus

sustainability

Focus

sustainability

Slow

acceptance

Fast

Acceptance

Science and

Technology

The orientation and

speed of tech. dev.

Focused Diversified

Slow Fast

Technological

RevolutionSolar Revolution

Fragmented

Future

Green

Revolution

* Including free trade


In summary, potentially there will be significant overlap in the keys to

success in the different scenarios

3

Scenario Fragmented Future Green revolution Solar revolution Technical revolution

Description • The world will fragment in

order to ensure self

sufficiency

• High climate change and

sustainability awareness in

society

• Solar fuel decrease energy

prices

• Rapid technological

developments

Impact on

feedstock mix

• Bio and re-use feedstock will

grow in order to become self

sufficient

• Societal pressure will force

the use of biomass and re-

use feedstock

• Bio and re-use feedstock only

for new functionalities,

naphtha remains dominant

• Technological possibilities

drive use of biomass and re-

use feedstock

Impact on

assets

• Slow investments in current

assets to support mixing in

bio and gas

• Significant investments in

both current and new assets ,

due societal pressure

• Slow investments in new

assets for specialty

chemicals based on biomass

• Significant investments in

both current and new assets

due to technical and

economic opportunities

NW-EU

chemistry

industry

• Current asset cluster will

have to integrate biomass

and waste and scale down

due to limited possibility to

export

• Strongly developed biomass

and recycled feedstock

based production

• Large global players will be

complemented by a set of

smaller players focussing on

bio based and recycling

players

• Further integration of the

value chain to include bio and

recycled feedstock

incorporating new players

Potential key

to success for

NW-EU

• Create strong investment

climate for biomass and

recycling

• Logistics to support full

integration of the cluster to

include new feedstock and

adapt to convergence of agri,

(bio)chemistry and health

• Operational excellence for

the NW-EU cluster as

process cost-efficiency will

become dominant

• Create a strong investment

climate to support high speed

of innovation and exploit the

convergence of agriculture,

chemistry and health industry

Dutch Chemical Industry Scenarios Directional

Current 20502030

Re-useOil Bio

205020302050203020502030


Fragmented future – Scarcity of resources makes local for local markets

dominating in a fragmented world

Description Impact on Dutch Chemical Industry

Description • The world will fragment in order to secure local demands,

local for local markets arise to ensure self sufficiency

Feedstock and Assets

• The fragmentation of the world will disturb the global

commodity market, so alliances and trade agreements

will be installed in order to secure access to feedstock

• Need of self sufficiency will push the use of biomass as

a feedstock especially the 2nd and 3rd generation

biomass

• Biomass chemical industry will growth relatively fast

as will recycling to limit the dependency on import of

feedstock

Industry Structure

• The global chemical industry will be affected by trade

barriers and nationalistic protectionism, forcing local for

local production

• Protection of new technologies and conservative

investment climate could favour incumbents, however

being a global company looses significance

• Need to grow biomass production could lead to

decentralisation of assets

• Efficiency will dominate over innovation and

sustainability, which enables the Netherlands to supply

the rest of Europe for traditional petro chemicals

Products and Applications

• The end market growth will be relatively slow in EU,

trade barriers limit export position

Economy • Historical below average growth rates; Europe is decoupled

from the global economy

Governance

and

regulations

• Self sufficiency leads to protectionism as dominant paradigm

for developing regulation

• The above can create conflicts between and within regions

Energy and

Commodity

prices

• Local for local markets drive high energy and commodity

prices on the distorted international market place

Climate and

environment

• Concerns for climate and pollution arise locally especially in

wealthy regions with energy dependency

Ethics,

culture and

(customer)

behaviour

• Local and regional debates about the availability of food and

energy are dominant, of course depending on local resource

availability

• Social values strong local focus

Science and

Technology

• Technological developments are guarded and protected by

regions

• Local policies force technological developments into relevant

(local) solution areas

• New ‘sustainable’ technologies will arise in energy and

commodity dependent regions

4


Green Revolution – High social awareness will force very fast transition

towards a sustainable world

5


Description • High awareness for climate change, sustainability and

energy efficiency dominates the future stimulated by

scientific evidence linking climate change to changes in

rainfall, weather patterns, sea levels and new diseases


• Traditional petro based feedstock will be complemented

and partly replaced with 2nd and 3rd generation

biomass and strong focus on re-use / recycling

• The availability of biomass will be the limiting factor

• Traditional petro chemical industry will integrate

biomass into the current cluster

• Additional focus on biomass can drive decentralisation

and miniaturisation of (new supporting) assets, this will

be supported by the decentralised energy supply

Industry Structure

• The consumer pressure for sustainability in combination

with the integration with the agrofood and health sector

will potentially introduce new players into sector (e.g.

van Gansewinkel, Danisco)

• Further development of clusters and ecosystems to

close energy and product loops in production systems

Products and Applications

• Cradle to cradle design will dominate new product

design and development potentially further integration

of the global supply chain

• Consumer values will allow premiums to be paid for

products forcing a tipping point to scale up production

Economy • Low to average growth rates

Governance

and

regulations

• Increased compliance with regulations for sustainability,

decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and safety

• Carbon credits and greenhouse gas emissions are installed

• Protectionism in trade increased to create global compliance

Energy and

Commodity

prices

• Energy costs increase due to policies on carbon and

greenhouse gas emissions which are priced in

• Commodity prices increase due to protectionism

Climate and

environment

• Evidence force market to shift gears, awareness for climate

and environmental changes increase

• This creates focus to reduce waste across other industries as

agriculture, animal production and manufacturing

Ethics,

culture and

(customer)

behaviour

• Social values place greater emphasis on environmental

sustainable products

• Customer greatly value sustainable products, practices and

companies incorporating climate change considerations

Science and

Technology

• Demand for clean, energy-efficient and sustainable products

in response to the climate change requires investment in

basic and applied research

• Technological innovation will focus on broad range of fields as

the increase of crop yields are developed to minimise the

conflict between food and feedstock and to scale up bio based

chemistry (e.g. pyrolysis process)


Solar Revolution – Solar fuel will break through on a large scale

6


Description • Solar fuel (or other energy solutions) will break through

on large scale decreasing the costs of electricity


• Low electricity costs will push the break through of the

electric vehicles limiting the demand of the transport and

energy sector for oil

• Oil and gas prices will decrease making petro

chemistry attractive in comparison to bio based

chemistry this will limited the push for up scaling of bio

based assets

• Additionally the petro chemistry in NW-EU will become

more cost competitive as feedstock price differences by

region will decrease and process efficiency becomes

leading (again)

• Economies of scale and scope (products) will determine

the competitiveness of the NW-EU petro-chemicals

plants.

• Development of bio based chemicals will remain

important to create new functionalities for new product

development

Industry Structure

• Given the staying power of the NW-EU petro chemical

industry large global players will be complemented by a

set of smaller players focussing on bio based and re-use

/ recycling

Products and Application

• The cost competitive position of NW-EU will relief the

pressure on the export position

• Key transportation and automotive sectors will go

through major transformation

Economy • Global economy will develop in a highly coupled way at above

growth rates through increased globalised demand due to

lower transport costs

Governance

and

regulations

• Free trade – as result of negotiated and agreed policies for

production, trade, H&S and environmental sustainability - is

stimulated by lower transport costs.

Energy and

Commodity

prices

• Lower energy, commodity and feedstock prices as result of

the technical break-through

Climate and

environment

• Environmental concerns de-emphasize energy-efficiency and

will focus on mitigating effects of toxics allowed by decent

profits

Ethics,

culture and

(consumer)

behaviour

• Consumers keep focus on the effects of toxics on

environment and debate on ethics of biotechnology,

nanotechnology and genetically modified products is

negotiated due to increased demand for products

Science and

Technology

• Solar photovoltaics (or other energy solution) has increased

its efficiency and realises low cost energy availability

throughout the world, opening opportunities for high energy

use technologies

• Strong GDP stimulates innovation of environmental

sustainable products with focus on limiting the effects of toxics

• Strong GDP growth combined with a more globalised world

will continuously strain the availability of talent in Europe


Technological Revolution – Rapid technological developments create an

explosion of new materials and supporting process technologies

7


Description • Rapid technological development dominates future Feedstock and Assets

• The trend towards asset light production and

miniaturisation of assets combined with new feedstock

possibilities could lead to asset decentralisation.

• Relative free global trade will lead to regional

specialisation for bulk chemical industry making the EU

bulk chemical less prominent supported by the continued

(expected) reliance on import for naphtha based

feedstock and biomass

• New asset in the Netherlands and Europe will be

producing speciality chemicals based on biomass and

recycled feedstock

• Artificial photosynthesis provides new (feedstock for)

chemicals , decreasing oil and biomass dependency

Industry Structure

• Technology enabled inclusion of different feedstock

potentially allows new industry players to enter

• Technology driven end market cluster will leverage

their knowledge and innovation capability globally to

create an export position

• Traditional players and new-comers will co-exist

Products and Application

• New product explosion will continue to create higher

added value products in combination with growing global

demand could lead to stable European export position

• This export position is build on high added value markets

as nutrition, health and personal care

Economy • Global economy will develop in a coupled way at above

average growth rates with increased globalised demand

Governance

and

regulations

• Trade policies will move to free trade - health, safety and

environmental regulation are negotiated and strict.

• The above leads to predictable and long-term policy direction

supporting technological innovation and investment

Energy and

Commodity

prices

• Economic and population growth strain supply and lead to

increased costs for fuel and traditional petrochemicals

• High food, commodity and energy prices

Climate and

environment

• Strong industrialisation and urbanisation in emerging markets

create concern for energy consumption, climate change and

pollution

Ethics,

culture and

(consumer)

behaviour

• Consumers are relatively fast in adopting new products and

society looks for technological innovation to meet the need for

clean products

• Ethical concerns for biotechnology, nanotechnology and GMP

are pushed to the background

Science and

Technology

• Technologies as artificial photosynthesis can mitigate the CO2

effect and produce hydrocarbons for chemicals

• Rapid technological breakthroughs and innovation using new

feedstock, new production methods and making new products

using: converged biosciences, materials sciences, self

assembly and nano technologies.

• This is supported by a highly connected IP free world leading

to increasing speed of innovation