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This talk was given at Stanford Graduate School of Business by Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, and Nick Staubach. It is a basic introduction to the Technological Singularity and its relationship with entrepreneurship.
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Technological Singularity & EntrepreneurshipOr: why we will either live forever, or be killed by
robots…
Randy Lubin, Robert Denning, Nick Staubach
OVERVIEW / HISTORY / PHILOSOPHYRobert Denning
2
What is the singularity?
A singularity is a paradigm-shifting event… The “technological singularity” is a
hypothetical event occurring when technological progress becomes so rapid and the growth of super-human intelligence is so great that the future after the singularity becomes qualitatively different and harder to predict.
3
Kurzweil’s Singularity
The coming technological singularity will allow us to augment our bodies and minds with technology.
The singularity will result from the combination of three important technologies of the 21st century: genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics (including artificial intelligence).
Four central postulates: A technological-evolutionary point known as "the singularity" exists
as an achievable goal for humanity. Through a law of accelerating returns, technology is progressing
toward the singularity at an exponential rate. The functionality of the human brain is quantifiable in terms of
technology that we can build in the near future. Medical advancements make it possible for a significant number of
his generation (Baby Boomers) to live long enough for the exponential growth of technology to intersect and surpass the processing of the human brain.
4
The Six Epochs
5
Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage.
The Singularitarians
Transhumanists, Immortalists, Extropians
Techno-Utopians, Techno-Progressivists
Blurring of human/machine
Humans transcend limitations of their own biology
Long-term immortality: Downloaded
consciousness Upgraded human body
“We have to live until the singularity”
Museum of Death
A just slightly more intelligent machine is all we need
From there, machines and AI will perfect themselves
Long-term problem-solving, an end to scarcity
“There is a cosmic imperative to create more complexity”
Museum of Poverty, Disease, Waste
6
Why is this good again?!
Pop culture prefers the apocalyptic scenario… Skynet (Terminator) The Matrix I, Robot Frankenstein; cyborgs; “the Borg”
But, as you’ll see, we are heading this way by forces beyond our control…
Profit motives Desire for longevity
And we are admittedly not preparing ourselves.
But we can.
7
THE SINGULARITY COULD END UP BEING THE BEST THING THAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE HUMAN RACE. FULL STOP.
8
The Goliath of totalitarianism will be brought down by the David of the microchip.
– Ronald Reagan, The Guardian, 14 June 1989
The Law of Accelerating ReturnsAn analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view.
9
So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century – it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate).
Life Eucaryotic cells, mul-ticellular organisms
Cambrian Explosion (body plans)
Reptiles Class MammaliaPrimates
Superfamily HominoideaFamily Hominidae
Human ancestors walk upright
Genus Homo, Homo Erectus, specialized
stone toolsSpoken languageHomo sapiens
Homo sapiens sapiens
Art, early citiesAgriculture
Writing, wheelCity states
Printing, experimen-tal method
Industrial Revolution
Telephone, Electricity, radio
ComputerPersonal Computer
Countdown to Singularity
Time before present (years)
Tim
e t
o N
ext
Eve
nt
(ye
ars
)
Logarithmic Plot
10
LifeEucaryotic cells, multicellular
organisms
Cambrian Explosion (body plans)Reptiles
Class Mammalia
PrimatesSuperfamily Hominoidea
Family Hominidae
Human ancestors walk uprightGenus Homo, Homo Erectus,
specialized stone toolsSpoken language
Homo sapiensHomo sapiens sapiens
Art, early cities
AgricultureWriting, wheel
City states
Printing, experimental method
Industrial RevolutionTelephone, electricity, radio
ComputerPersonal Computer
Countdown to Singularity
Time before present (years)
Tim
e t
o N
ext
Eve
nt
(ye
ars
)
Linear Plot
11
THE PARADIGM SHIFT RATE
IS NOW DOUBLING ABOUT
EVERY DECADE
12
1
10
100
Telephone Radio Television
PC
MobilePhone
Mass Use of Inventions Years Until Use by 1/4 U.S. Population
Ye
ars
Doubling time: x years
Doubling time: x years
The Web
Logarithmic Plot
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS)
DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH)
EVERY YEAR
13
Moore’s Law is only one example
Exponential Growth of Computing for 110 Years
Moore's Law was the fifth, not the first, paradigm to bring exponential growth in computing
Calc
ula
tions
per
Seco
nd p
er
$1
00
0
Year
Logarithmic Plot
14
1E+09
1E+16
VP2600/10SX-3/44
CM-5/1024Num. Wind Tun.
Num. Wind Tun.SR2201/1024
CP-PACS/2048ASCI Red
ASCI RedASCI WhiteASCI White
Earth SimulatorSX-8
Blue Gene /L
Blue Gene /L
Blue Gene /LBlue Gene /L
Roadrunner
Pleiades,Blue Waters, or RIKEN (announced)
First Exaflop Super-computer (forecast)
Year
Flo
ps
(Fl
oa
tin
g-p
oin
t O
pe
rati
on
s p
er
Se
con
d)
Growth in Supercomputer Power
40048008
8080 8086286
386486
PentiumPentium II
Pentium IIIPentium 4 (1700)
Pentium 4 (3066)Pentium D 830
Core 2 Extreme QX6700
C2E QX9770
Processor Performance (MIPS)
Year
`
Doubling time: x years
MIPS
Dynamic RAM Memory Bits per Dollar
Year
DRAM Bits/Dollar
Source: ITRS`
Doubling time: x years
Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot
Logarithmic Plot
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
400480088080
8086
286386
486 DXPentium
Pentium IIPentium III
Pentium 4
Itanium 2 Itanium 2 (2003)
Itanium 2 (2004)Xeon MPDual-Core Itanium 2
Itanium 'Tukwila'
Transistors Per Chip (Intel processors)
YearTran
sist
ors
per
ch
ip
Logarithmic Plot
15
Random Access Memory Bits per Dollar (1950-2008)
Year
Bit
s per
Dolla
r(i
n y
ear
2000 d
olla
rs)
`
Doubling time: x years
Logarithmic Plot
16
Cost Per Transistor Cycle
Year $
/Tra
nsis
tor/
Hz
Doubling time: x years
Doubling time: x years
Doubling time: x years
Doubling time: x years
1.00E-08
1.00E-07
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
1.00E-03
1.00E-02
1.00E-01
1.00E+00
Average Transistor Price
Year
Dol
lars
Logarithmic Plot
Microprocessor Clock Speed
Year
(H
z)
`
Doubling time: x years
`
Doubling time: x years
`
Doubling time: x years
Logarithmic Plot
Logarithmic Plot
17
Total Bits Shipped
Year
Total Bits Shipped
Source: ITRS
`
`
Doubling time: x years
`
Doubling time: x years
Logarithmic Plot
18
Magnetic Data Storage Bits Per Dollar
Year
Bit
s/$
Logarithmic Plot
19
EVERY FORM OF COMMUNICATIONS TECHNOLOGY (PRICE - PERFORMANCE, BANDWIDTH, CAPACITY)
IS DOUBLING ABOUT EVERY 12 MONTHS
20
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Internet Data Traffic (U.S.)
Year
Peta
byte
s/Ye
ar
.1
.01
Logarithmic Plot
21
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20041
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Price-performance of wireless data devices
YearB
its p
er
seco
nd/$
19651970
19751980
19851990
19952000
20052010
1E+04
1E+06
1E+08
1E+10
Internet Backbone Bandwidth (Bits per Second)
Year
Bit
s p
er
Se
co
nd
Logarithmic Plot
Logarithmic Plot
22
Internet Hosts(computers or machines with IP
addresses)
Year
H
osts
Internet Hosts(computers or machines with IP
addresses)
YearH
ost
s
`
Linear Plot
Logarithmic Plot
23
10
100
1,000
U.S. Nano-Related Patents
Year
`
Doubling time: x years
Pat
ents
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Nanotech Science Citations - 1990-2002
Year
Cit
ati
ons
Logarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot
Nanotechnology
24
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
0.1
1
10
Resolution of Noninvasive Brain Scanning
Year
Resolu
tion (
mm
)
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
Brain scanning/imaging Reconstruction time (seconds)
Year
Seco
nds
Logarithmic Plot
Logarithmic Plot
Artificial Intelligence (via humans)
25
0.00000
0.00001
0.00010
0.00100
0.01000
0.10000
1.00000
10.00000
100.00000
1,000.00000
10,000.00000
DNA Seqencing Cost
Year
Cost
in D
ollars
19801985
19901995
20002005
2010
1E+02
1E+04
1E+06
1E+08
1E+10
Growth in Genbank DNA Sequence Data
Base Pairs
Year
Ba
se P
airs a
nd
Se
qu
en
ces
Logarithmic Plot
Logarithmic Plot
Biotechnology
26
Law of Accelerating Returns is Driving Economic Growth
The portion of a product or service’s value comprised of information is asymptoting to 100%
The cost of information at every level incurs deflation at ~ 50% per year
This is a powerful deflationary force Completely different from the deflation in the 1929
Depression (collapse of consumer confidence & money supply)
This is why entrepreneurialism is so important
27
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
GDP per capita (1990 international constant dol-
lars)
Years
GD
P p
er
capit
a
(1990 inte
rnati
onal co
nst
ant
dol
-la
rs)
1,000
10,000
100,000
GDP per capita (1990 international constant dol-
lars)
Years
GD
P p
er
capit
a (
1990 inte
rnati
onal co
nst
ant
dol
-la
rs)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Real Gross Domestic Product(2005 constant dollars)
Year
Billions of 2005 constant dollars
Source: BEA
Doubling tme: x years
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Real Gross Domestic Product(2005 constant dollars)
Year
Billions of 2005 constant dollars
Source: BEA
Dou-bling time: 19.2 years
Linear PlotLogarithmic Plot
Logarithmic PlotLinear Plot
28
10
100
1,000
Manufacturing Output Per Hour
Year
Ou
tpu
t p
er
Hou
r
Logarithmic Plot
29
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
E-Commerce Revenues in U.S. (billions of dollars)
B2C (Business to Consumer)
B2B (Business to Business)
Year
Billions of dollars
Source: ITRS
`
Logarithmic Plot
30
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 20000
2
4
6
8
10
IT's Share of the Economy
Year
% o
f G
DP
`
Doubling time: x years
Logarithmic Plot
31
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
U.S. Patent Applications
Year
Pate
nt
Ap
plica
tion
s
Logarithmic Plot
32
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
World Annual Photovoltaic Pro-duction
Year
Meg
awat
ts
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101
10
100
1,000
10,000
World Annual Photovoltaic Production
Year
Meg
awat
ts
Logarithmic PlotLinear Plot
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
World Cumulative Photovoltaic Production
Year
Megaw
att
s
Logarithmic PlotLinear Plot
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
5,000
10,000
15,000
World Cumulative Photovoltaic Production
Year
Me
ga
wa
tts
33
1995 2000 2005 20100
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Annual Photovoltaic Production, Select Countries and Europe 1995-
2008
United StatesJapanEuropeChinaTaiwanIndiaOthers
Year
Megaw
att
s
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Annual Photovoltaic Installations, Select Countries and Regions, 2000-
2008
Germany Japan United States Others
Year
Meg
awat
ts
Linear PlotLinear Plot
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010$0
$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100
World Average Photovoltaic Module Cost per Watt, 1975-2006
Cost per Watt (2007 US Dollars)
Year
Cos
t per
Wat
t (20
07 D
olla
rs)
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
200
400
Watts per $1000 (2007 U.S. Dolllars), 1975-2006
Watts per $1000 (of 2007 US dollars)
Year
Wat
ts
Linear Plot Linear Plot
34
An example of Exponential Growth…
5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
35
An example of Exponential Growth…
5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
From the start of time ~2003
36
An example of Exponential Growth…
5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
From the start of time ~2003
in 2010 ~ 2 Days
37
An example of Exponential Growth…
5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
From the start of time ~2003
in 2010 ~ 2 Days
in 2013
38
An example of Exponential Growth…
5 Exobytes = 5 Billion Gigabytes
From the start of time ~2003
in 2010 ~ 2 Days
in 2013 ~ 10 minutes
39
It’s going to happen…
SO… We need to prepare; We need to consider the ethical implications and develop a
new moral framework; We need to consider the social and political frameworks
necessary to deal with the transition.
BUT… You don’t need to accept everything that might be possible… …But you do need to recognize that this paradigm shift is
potentially imminent and clearly inevitable (and that, at the very least, the gap between now and when it happens is closing at an exponentially faster rate)…
And that the event horizon will be unpredictable, and seismic.
40
GENETICS / NANOTECHNOLOGYRandy Lubin
41
Your mobile phone has more computing power than all of NASA in 1969. NASA launched a man into the moon. We launch a bird into pigs.–George Bray
GENETICS / NANOTECHNOLOGYRandy Lubin
63
Robots and AINick Staubach
Key Thoughts
This is an awesome time to be alive Don’t think linearly (Future’s Coming Fast) You will be driving this change
More Resources
The Singularity is Near (Kurzweil) KurzweilAI.net SingularityHub.com