Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production,

efficiency, livelihoods and the environment

M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton

WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation

21st September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi

The Global Livestock SectorOpportunities and Challenges

Jimmy Smith (ILRI)

ILRI-World Bank High Level Consultation on the Global Livestock Agenda by 2020Nairobi, 12- 13 March 2012

The big picture–global drivers and trends• Feeding the world• Price fluctuations• Population and urbanization• Poverty

Trends in the global livestock sector• Consumption• Food production• Trade

Pressing issues in the global livestock sector• Climate change• Water• Land• Human and animal diseases• Over consumption

Challenging issues–divergent views

Overview

The big picture – global drivers and trends

FAO: SOFA2011

Feeding the world1 billion hungry today

?

2.5 billion more to feed by 2050

Additional food needed1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to

2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)

Additional grains1048 million tonnes

more to 2050

Humanconsumption

458 million MT

Livestock430 million MT

Monogastrics mostly

Biofuels160 million MT

FAO: SOFA2011

Volatile pricesImpacts on livestock sector and the poor?

Blip or emerging trend?

A growing–and urbanizing–population

Photo by NYT

Population growth by region1750−2050

Urbanization

Source: Economist

Changes in globalpoverty indicators

% of populationliving on less than$1.25/day• 1990−41.7%• 2005−25.2%

Millions of peopleliving on less than$1.25/day • 1990−1,818 • 2005−1,374 http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

11

> 80 60−80 40−60 20−40 < 20 no data

Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day−2010

http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/

Trends in the global livestock sector

Consumptionof livestock products

Consumption continues to rise with income and urbanization

Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption

Highest rates of increase are in the developing world

Livestock products contribute:17% of global kilocalorie consumption33% of global protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008)

Livestock provide food for at least 830 millionfood-insecure people (Gerber et al. 2007)

Projected global consumption in 2050

Annual per capita consumption

Total consumption

Year Meat (kg)

Milk (kg) Meat (Mt)

Milk (Mt)

Developingcountries

20022050

2844

4478

137326

222585

Developedcountries

20022050

7894

202216

102126

265295

Source: Rosegrant et al 2009

Global value of productionof all livestock products

Herrero et al. 2011

Where does theworld’s food come from?

Herrero et al. 2009

FAO: SOFA 2009

Growing trade in livestock commodities–with impacts also at local level

ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward

Pressing global issuesin the livestock sector

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050

Climate changeWhat will happen to feed resources?

diseases? productivity?

Courtesy of Andy Jarvis

Global greenhouse gas efficiencyper kg of animal protein produced

Large inefficiencies in the developing world–an opportunity?

Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)

A global water crisis

2 billion peoplelack access

Demand is growing; freshwater is getting scarcer

70% of total freshwater useis for agriculture,of which 31%is for livestock

Livestock and land use Land use

• 3.4 billion hectares (about 26% of emerged lands) • low intensity in developing countries but growing in Latin America

(this accounts for 80% of deforestation in LAC)• marginal land frontier exhausted• 20% of rangelands are degraded (higher in the dry lands)

Extent of feed-crops• 470 million hectares (about 33% of arable land)• cereals: production growth mainly based on intensification /

regional distribution of crops• soybean: production growth based on expansion in a limited

number of countries (20% of deforestation in the neotropics)

22

Steinfeld et al 2006

What role for rangelands?

Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002)

• Largest land use system

• Increasingly fragmented

• Potentially alarge C sink

• PES: important source of income diversification

• Difficulties in: Measuring and

monitoring C stocks Establishment of

payment schemes Dealing with

mobile pastoralists

World Land Acquisition

Livestock and human disease

Animal source foods are the biggest contributor to food-borne disease

Diseases transmitted from livestock and livestockproducts kill more peopleeach year than HIV or malaria

One new human disease emerges every 2 months−20% of these from livestock(Jones et al., 2008)

Projected global consumption in 2050

Annual per capita consumption

Total consumption

Year Meat (kg)

Milk (kg)

Meat (Mt)

Milk (Mt)

Developing 20022050

2844

4478

137326

222585

Developed 20022050

7894

202216

102126

265295

Source: Rosegrant et al. 2009

Too much?2 billion overweight!

Enough?

Animal welfare?

ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward

Challenging issues – divergent views

Large or small farms?Land consolidation vs growth and

intensification of the smallholder sector

Large commercial farms pro-efficiency(foreign capital investment)

Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor

Smallholders: Low opportunity cost of labour

Do diversified smallholder farms promote biodiversity and better managementof ecosystems services?

Smallholder sector fragmented:What actors are needed to support it?

Trajectory of change?

Supermarkets or informal sector? ‘Supermarket revolution’

took off in 1990s

Increases in market sharevary around the world

General features• Impacts the rich first• Vertical integration of food markets• Threat to smallholder participation

Effects not samefor all products• First in processed foods

(flour, oil, condiments)

• Last in fresh foods(meat, dairy, fruits and veg)

Informal milk market80% in India

ILRI/Mann

Trade-offs: Environment−livelihoods

Use of biomass–for soil or feed (or fuel)

Reduction ofanimal numbers–implications forlivelihoods

Producingwith smallerenvironmentalfootprint

To eat or not to eat . . .meat, milk and fish

1 billion undernourished2 billionoverweight

Main messages The big picture

• Feeding the world is possible• Sustaining the natural resource base is possible• Reducing absolute poverty is possible

Trends• Demand for livestock products continues to rise• Livestock systems producing much of the World’s food• Vast divide between regions and countries but increasingly interconnected

Pressing issues• Livestock impact on all global development issues• Need for reliable evidence-based assessments of hard trade-offs

Challenging issues• Organization within the sector• Managing trade offs at multiple scales• Achieving equity