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A 'less animated' version of the 'Future Of The Web' talk given by Dan Zambonini, of Box UK, at Transmission 2, on 25 November 2009 in Manchester.
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Thefutureof the web
Dan Zambonini
Isn’t the future glorious?
My wife hates me.
Why discuss the future?build relevant apps
learn the right skills
safeguard your data
invest in relevant companies
It’s All About The BenjaminsPuff Daddy, “No Way Out”, 1997
ghostthe
of web past
Traditional Method of Discussing Web History• 1969 Arpanet
• 1971 Email
• 1974 TCP/IP
• 1977 The Modem
• 1978 Bulletin Board System
• 1979 MUD
• 1979 Usenet
• 1984 DNS
• 1988 IRC
• 1991 Web (HTML/HTTP)
• 2004 Web 2.0 / AJAX
I Don’t Like ThatP. Diddy, “The Saga Continues”, 2001
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US
Bro
adb
and
Sp
eed
(Mb
ps)!
Ave
rage
Sel
lin
g P
rice
($U
S, I
nfl
atio
n A
dju
sted)!
PCs! Digital Cameras! Broadband Speed!
Flickr
YouTube
Idea Execution
Context
Victims of Context?
broadband not prevalent
no critical mass of families
dot-com bust
ghostthe
of web present
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1996! 1997! 1998! 1999! 2000! 2001! 2002! 2003! 2004! 2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009!
Po
pu
lati
on
On
lin
e (%
)!
Nu
mb
er
of
Use
rs (m
illi
on
s)!
Number of Users (million)! % World Population! % US Adults Online!
Acquisitions: $billions.com registered: 11m
Techcrunch50 2008
technology trigger
peak of inflated expectations
trough of disillusionment
slope of enlightenment
plateau of productivity
Gartner Hype Cycle
time
visibility
1900 1950 2000 2050
2010
webmodern technology
2010:the trough of
disillusionment
i'm gonna give up my efforts of becoming a web developer, finish all
my design jobs and start drawing letters again. one day soon. i think i'm gonna give up
computer/internet for a week.So I'm thinking I might give up the internet...maybe =/ first myspace goes to shit, then
facebook and now twitter has gone the same way! i give up with the internet,
where's my pad and pen gone?
“The more time people spend using the Internet, the more they lose contact with their social environment.” (Stanford University Report)
An increasing feeling of disconnection with the real world
ghostthe
of web future
Demographics
Idea Execution
ContextAudience
InfrastructureEconomics
Behaviours
Needs
Contextual Inevitability #1 - Mobile Growth
connection speed
connection ubiquity
time
Contextual Inevitability #2 - Web Dependence
time
value of web apps
reliance on web apps
Contextual Inevitability #2 - Web Dependence
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News Cycle (hours)! Volume (updates per day)!
Contextual Inevitability #3 - Data Overload
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Contextual Inevitability #3 - Data Overload
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News Cycle (hours)! Volume (updates per day)!
Contextual Inevitability #3 - Data Overload
infrastructure cost
time
Chrome OS
accessible computing power
Contextual Inevitability #4 - Invisible Infrastructure
Contextual Inevitability #5 - Smaller Companies
Contextual Inevitability #5 - Smaller Companies
• Feeling of Disconnection
• Sophisticated Mobile Ubiquity
• Web Dependence
• Information Overload
• Invisible Infrastructure
• Many Small Producers, Few Platform Providers
Summary: The Future Context
What will flourish under these conditions?
nowhere
now herehyperlocalhyperrecent
#1AUGMENTED
REALITY
user sophistication
impact of HTML5 & AR
number of users
novice geek
#1.5HTML 5
geeksnon-geeks
Web Audience
geeksnon-geeks
Web Creators
#2LOCATION
BASED SERVICES
#3BROKERS /
MARKETPLACES
News TV Movies MusicGamesRetail Info Social
Location Photo Video
Google AppleFacebook
Brokers/Marketplaces
FriendFeedMicrosoft Microsoft
#4MICROPAYMENTS
• PayPal (5% + $0.05)
• Google Checkout (3.4% + £0.20)
• Amazon Flexible Payment Service
(From 2% + $0.05)
• Facebook?
• Twitter?
• Better Than Free? Kevin Kelly / Seth Godin
#5NOSQLhttp://www.rackspacecloud.com/blog/2009/11/09/nosql-ecosystem/
• Adobe AIR
• Semantic Web / RDF
• OpenID / Single Identity / Sign On
• Virtual Worlds
Technologies I Question
Problems To Solve: Technologies?
• People Who Walk Slowly
• Doctor Who Fans
• The Rudimentary Design of The Toilet
• Michael McIntyre
• Recruitment Agents
• Jedward
• RSS / Content
• Blurring of Work / Personal Lives
• Novices Creating Web Content / Services
• Data / API / Services Search (Broker?)
• SEO
• Spam
• Trust
• Privacy
Problems To Solve: Technologies?
Photo Credits / Sources• http://www.flickr.com/photos/wiedmaier/12149900/
• http://www.paleofuture.com/blog/2009/10/19/24-hour-daylight-1960.html
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Christmas_Carol
• http://www.flickr.com/photos/shainerin/3795049297/
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle
• http://www.flickr.com/photos/42dreams/1878611309/
• http://www.flickr.com/photos/cultr/3265160711/
• http://www.flickr.com/photos/wvs/2961076514/
• http://www.flickr.com/photos/frogdna/3684414371/
• http://www.flickr.com/photos/fattytuna/3165260564/
• http://pewinternet.org/Static-Pages/Trend-Data/Whos-Online.aspx
• http://pewinternet.org/Infographics/The-Future-of-the-Internet-III.aspx
please copy, use, improve, remix and share this presentation
Dan Zambonini
boxuk.comamaxus.com
cardiffwebscene.comzombievirusfund.com
twitter.com/boxuktwitter.com/amaxus
twitter.com/zamboninitwitter.com/twitexperiment
twitter.com/thejanuaristtwitter.com/freelondon
twitter.com/ignite_londonfacebook.com/zamboninilinkedin.com/in/zambonini
google.com/profiles/danzamboniniOr just talk to me.
ThanksI’ll Be Missing You
Puff Daddy, “No Way Out”, 1997
