Tdg risk wise_cib_oct16

Copyright © 2016 Thinking Dimensions Global All Rights Reserved.

Think .… Investigate

Resolve

John Hudson

Operations Director

Thinking Dimensions (UK)

Webinar

18 October 2016

An Overview of RiskWise©

Chartered Institute of Bankers

Keith Smith

Principal Consultant

RiskCovered


Introduction

Why does it make sense to use structured

methods in risk management and decision

making? What has changed?


The underlying forces


Complexity

Stacey RD. Strategic management and organisational dynamics: the

challenge of complexity. 3rd ed. Harlow: Prentice Hall, 2002.


Summary

In a world where we frequently lose certainty and

agreement, structured methods can help us claw

back understanding and clarity


Overview

KEPNERandFOURIE - RiskWise

1.Brief History and Pedigree

2.The KEPNERandFOURIE Process

3.The Apollo 13 Mission

4.RiskWise Today

5.Q and A Session


KEPNERandFOURIE

Charles H Kepner and

Mat-Thys Fourie

KEPNERandFOURIE

Continuous Improvement Processes • PSDM

• itRCA

• Project Rescue

• Self Cyber

Copyright © 2016 Thinking Dimensions Global All Rights Reserved

The KEPNERandFOURIE

International Presence

• Baxter International • Blue Cross Blue Shield • Barclays IT • Bosch • Caltex Oil • Carraro • Crown Cork and Seal • Dometic • Electrolux • Federal Judiciary Center • General Dynamics IT • Hollister,Inc • Infineon • BASF • Macquarie Bank IT • BT Financial IT • Stihl • Westpac IT • Maersk • Norfolk Naval Shipyard • Selig • Siemens • SITA • SKF

Americas • Canada • Chile • Peru • USA

EMEA • Germany • Italy • Netherlands • Poland • Saudi Arabia • South Africa • Spain • Turkey • United Kingdom

Asia Pacific • Australia • China • India • South Korea • Thailand • Singapore


The KEPNERandFOURIE

Processes

Ne

ed

to

ta

ke

Actio

n

Many

Issues

One

Technical

One

Generic

PriorityWise

CauseWise

ThinkWise

Choose

Alternative

Find Better

Alternative

Have No

Alternative

Protect an

Action Plan RiskWise

SW

MaxFour

SW

Create

SW

Choice


RiskWise is

A highly flexible and practical risk avoidance problem solving

approach.

A systematic and integrative application of rational, intuitive

and creative risk avoidance strategies.

Exploits the risk avoidance thinking approach using case

studies and exercises.

Applies questioning techniques that are essential in affecting

the risk avoidance problem solving dimensions

Apply the risk avoidance dimension and approach to own job

situations

Copyright © 2016 Thinking Dimensions Global. All Rights Reserved.

RISKWISE

Protective Actions

PAST NOW FUTURE

FINDING CAUSE

FINDING SOLUTIONS

FUTURE RISKWISE

STANDARD

could could

Avoiding and

Contingent Actions


The RiskWise Process



and Apollo 13

(11 April 1970)

State the Situation

Identify Potential Problems

Plan Protection

Develop an Action

Plan

Check your

Thinking



“Houston we have a problem”

Apollo 13

State the Situation: Damage to Oxygen and Hydrogen tanks critically

affects life support and electrical systems


RiskWise

Critical Risk Areas

Critical Risk Areas (15)

• Select the most urgent

• Highest Impact events

• Stakeholders Perspective


RiskWise


Potential Problems

• Non- return of Apollo 13

• Exhaust Oxygen Supplies

• Failure of Electrical systems

• Inability to steer spacecraft

• Recycle the CO²

“Failure is not an Option”


Plan Protection

Avoiding Actions

Exit Command Module (CM)

Shut Down CM Systems

Relocate to Lunar Module Reassess situation

Contingent Actions

Mission control to Reassess

Simulators in Houston and Kennedy

Minimise consumption of Oxygen, Water Electricity

CO² Control


Develop an Action Plan

Action Steps

Repair Oxygen Link

Evacuate Command Module

Alter Flight Plan

Lunar Module to determine flight-path

Responsibilities

Apollo 13 crew

Apollo 13 Crew

Mission Control

LM Pilot

Action Plan


Check Your Thinking (CYT)

Check Your Thinking

1. Identify Risk Areas

2. List Risks and Potential Problems

3. Identify Avoiding Actions

4. Identify Opportunity areas

5. List Opportunities

6. Identify Promoting Actions

7. Develop a plan (Include avoiding and promoting actions)


Root Cause

Investigation into Apollo 13 Failure

Investigation Team Findings (Human Error and Oversight)

Simulation test of Oxygen Bottles functions

Unable to empty contents of bottle 2

Heater used to burn off remaining contents

(incorrect voltage 65 volts instead of 28

volts)

Higher current welded the switches

together – the heaters operated when they

should not have functioned.

Damage to Teflon insulation on the fan,

when operated in flight this caused an

electrical arc and explosion

Protective Actions


RiskWise Process

Safeguard against the scanning of Credit Cards by RFID

State the Situation


Plan Protection

Develop an Action

Plan

Check your

Thinking


RiskWise

The Situation

Step 1: Situation

Step 2: Critical Risk Areas

(15)

Safeguard against the scanning of

Credit Cards by RFID

(Radio Frequency Identification

Device)

1. New and Old Technology

3. Implementation Time

Copyright © 2016 Thinking Dimensions Global. All Rights Reserved.

RiskWise – Critical Risk Areas



RiskWise

Intuitive Model

RiskWise - Intuitive Model

1. SITUATION: Safeguard against the scanning of Credit Cards by RFID

2 EVALUATE AREAS OF IMPACT Risk Benefit

0 to H 0 to H

1 New & Old technology H H

2 Ease of Implementation M H

3 Implementation time H H

4 Research and development M H

5 Suppliers/vendors and customers L H

6 Recoveries L L

7 Target dates and/or deadlines/durations M M

8 Knowledge and skills L H

9 Labour/Resource issues M L

10 Security H H

11 Quality M H

12 Productivity L M

13 Strategic fit L H

14 Policies, procedures & processes L L

15 Environment, health & safety L l


RiskWise – Potential Problems

2.2 Potential Problems Probability Serious

Intuitive Method

List all the potential problems 0 to H 0 to H

1 New and Old

Technology 1.1. Design and manufacture of device H H

1.2 Method of distribution M M

1.3 Inform customers of the initiative L L

1.4 Measure of effectiveness H M

3 Implementation

Time 3.1 Unable to make festive season deadline H H

3.2 Identify the bank products they are using H L

3.3 Customers don’t use the device L H

1. Situation: Safeguard against the scanning of Credit Cards by RFID


RiskWise – Likely reasons

and related actions

3.1 Likely Reasons Prob 3.2 Avoiding Actions Eff 3.3. Contingent Actions Eff

Identify reasons

(causes) for each

high threat

Identify actions to prevent

each reason.

Identify actions to deal with

each potential problem

2.1.1 New

technology and new

UK Manufacturer

H

2.1.1.1 Search for an

alternative overseas

supplier

H

Cooperate with multinational

partners to use their

suppliers

H

2.1.1.2 Alternative

materials available in Far

East

M Ensure availability in an

emergency M

Potential Problem - 2.1. Design and manufacture

of RFID blocking credit card wallet


RiskWise – Action Plan

4. Action Plan Responsible Deadline

(Actions do not have to be in

sequence)

(Who is most qualified to do

this step?)

(What is a realistic time to

complete?)

2.1.1 (a) Establish if any

local suppliers can

produce the required

spec in the required time

JH to develop a short list

of suppliers 31 October

2.1.1 (b) Negotiate

design and production

with local supplier

KS to complete

procurement details 11 November


Check Your Thinking


Check Your Thinking

1. Identify Risk Areas

2. List Risks and Potential

Problems

3. Identify Avoiding Actions

4. Identify Opportunity areas

5. List Opportunities

6. Identify Promoting Actions

7. Develop a plan


RiskWise – Spreadsheet Layout


RiskWise – Question Time


Contact Details


KEPNERandFOURIE

John Hudson

Operations Director


www.thinkingdimensions.com

[email protected]

Mobile +44 (0) 7890 518 167

http://www.thinkingdimensions.com/

mailto:[email protected]