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Association for Sense About ScienceNatural History Museum
M.S. Swaminathan, FRSUNESCO Chair in Ecotechnology
President, Pugwash Conferences on Science and World AffairsM.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai
Where the Green Revolution has left us and where we need to go now?
London, 22 May 2003
Public Good Plant Breeding : What are the international priorities?
Famines and Public Good Plant Breeding
The Irish Potato Famine of 1840s triggered the
search for new genes in tuber-bearing Solanum
species.
“This Conference, meeting in the midst of the
greatest war ever waged, and in full confidence of
victory, has considered world problems of food and
agriculture and declares its belief that the goal of
freedom from want of food, suitable and adequate
for the health and strength of all peoples, can be
achieved”.
Resolution of Conference convened by President Franklin D. RooseveltHot SpringsVirginia (18 May to 3 June 1943)
Major Famines of the 20th Century
YearYear EpicentreEpicentre Excess MortalityExcess Mortality
19431943 BengalBengal 2.7 to 3.00 million deaths2.7 to 3.00 million deaths
1958-621958-62 ChinaChina 16.5 to 29.5 million16.5 to 29.5 million
1972-751972-75 EthiopiaEthiopia 2 lakhs2 lakhs
1972-741972-74 BangladeshBangladesh 1.5 million1.5 million
19731973 SahelSahel 1 lakh1 lakh
Source : Amartya Sen, Poverty and Famines, 1981
Haiti Can’t- be-saved
Egypt Can’t-be-saved
The Gambia Walking Wounded
Tunisia Should Receive Food
Libya Walking Wounded
India Can’t-be-saved
Pakistan Should Receive Food
Famine : Triage classification of countries
- Paul and William Paddock, 1967
Variation in Australian Average Wheat Yield (Ten-Year Mean) from 1860 to 2000Fighting Soil Hunger
Water Conservation and Management : Key to Crop Security
The rice terraces of Bali
Green Revolution in Europe
o Began with Liebig’s discovery of mineral fertilizer in the 1850s
o Soil health, water management and plant protection proved to be key factors in determining crop productivity
o Mendelian genetics helped to breed strains capable of responding well to soil fertility and irrigation water management
Daruma(Japanese semi-dwarf) X
Fultz(U.S. winter wheat, high yield)
Fultz-Daruma(semi-dwarf, high yield)
Locals(adapted to
U.S. Northwest)X
X Turkey Red(U.S. winter, high yield)
Norin 10(semi-dwarf, winter, high yield)
Gaines(semi-dwarf, winter,
U.S. adpted)
X Local Strains
New Wheats(semi-dwarf, high yield, adaptable, rust-resistant, fast-maturing,spring)
Origin of the semi-dwarf wheats
Power of Mendelian Breeding
Public good Plant Breeding and assured and remunerative marketing triggered rapid progress
Wheat Production – India now occupies theSecond Position in the World
1965: 10 Million t 2000 : 80 Million t
o Some time between 1970 and 1985 the world will undergo vast famines — hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death. That is, they will starve to death unless plague, thermonuclear war, or some other agent kills them first.
o The United States should announce that it will no longer ship food to countries such as India where dispassionate analysis indicates that the unbalance between food and population is hopeless.
Ehrlich 1968
Synergy between Technology and Public Policy
Science and Agricultural Progress1968 – The Beginning of Green Revolution
o Pedigree Selectiono Inter-varietal Hybridizationo Winter x Spring Wheat crosseso Mutation Breedingo Aneuploid and Genomic Breedingo Restructuring Plant Architecture : Semi-dwarf wheato Shuttle Breeding and Photo-insensitivityo Hybrid Wheato Apomixiso Functional Genomics and Molecular Breeding
Hundred Years of Wheat Breeding
Land and Forest Saving Agriculture
Non-lodging , greater absorption of sun light, better root system, higher harvest index and photo-insensitivity
New Plant Type in Rice
8000BC
1900Landraces
1930Purelineselection
1950Crossbreds
2010Biotech-nology
1995Indica/Indica
hybrids
2005Indica/
Tropicaljaponicahybrids
1965 1990 2000Newplanttype
Semidwarfs(IR8) (IR72)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Potential yield (t/ha)
From Green to Gene Revolution in Rice
Public Sector Public-Private Sector
Genetic Resources(building blocks)
Biotechnologies(tools)
Commercial Products(market value)
$
Sui generis Systems(Rights)
Benefit-sharing(collective rights)
(e.g. Farmers’ Rights and the Global Plan of Action)
Intellectual Property Rights
(individual rights) % (e.g. Plant Breeder’s Rights)
FAO – International Treaty – Art, 9(also Art. 12 &13)CBD – Art, 8 (j)
WIPOWTO/TRIPS (Art. 27.3.b)
UPOV
Access to Genetic Resources andBiotechnologies for Food and Agriculture
“Man has lost the capacity to foresee and to
forestall. He will end by destroying the earth”
- Albert Schweitzer
Environment and Development : Early WarningRachel Carson 1962 : Silent Spring
“Intensive cultivation of land without conservation of soil fertility and soil structure would lead ultimately to the springing up of deserts. Irrigation without arrangements for drainage would result in soils getting alkaline or saline. Indiscriminate use of pesticides, fungicides and herbicides could cause adverse changes in biological balance as well as lead to an increase in the incidence of cancer and other diseases, through the toxic residues present in the grains or other edible parts. Unscientific tapping of underground water would lead to the rapid exhaustion of this wonderful capital resource left to us through ages of natural farming. The rapid replacement of numerous locally adapted varieties with one or two high yielding strains in large contiguous areas would result in the spread of serious diseases capable of wiping out entire crops, as happened prior to the Irish potato famine of 1845 and the Bengal rice famine of 1942. Therefore, the initiations of exploitative agriculture without a proper understanding of the various consequences of every one of the changes introduced into traditional agriculture and without first building up a proper scientific and training base to sustain it, may only lead us into an era of agricultural disaster in the long run, rather than to an era of agricultural prosperity.”
Scientific rationale for an Ever-green revolution
- M S SwaminathanIndian Science Congress, Varanasi, January 1968
What nations with small farms and resource poor farmers need is the enhancement of productivity in perpetuity, without associated ecological or social harm. The green revolution should become an ever-green revolution rooted in the principles of ecology, economics and social and gender equity.
- M S Swaminathan, 1990
Concept of Ever-green Revolution
Green
RevolutionEver-green
Revolution
Commodity Centered
Experiment Station
Research
Integrated Natural Resources
Management Centered
Participatory Research
Paradigm Shift : Adding the Dimension ofEnvironmental sustainability
Growth Rates in the Production of Food Grain
2.82.29
3.94
1.78
0
1
2
3
4
5
1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01
Year
Per
cen
tage
Fatigue of the Green Revolution
Where do we need to go now?
o In population rich and land hungry countries, there is no option except to produce more from less per capita arable land and irrigation water.
o The smaller the farm, the greater is the need for marketable surplus, to get cash income
o There is need for anticipatory research to face future challenges like global warming and sea level rise
o Obviously an integrated approach to Mendelian and molecular breeding will be essential to make progress
Mangroves : Useful Sources of Genes for Salinity Tolerance
Anticipatory Research
cDNA libraries were constructed from the Mangrove species Avicennia marina
A number of genes with potential application to abiotic stress has been isolated and charactreised
Four isolated genes were used for developing transgenics in rice, Brassica and Vigna
Transgenic plants with salinity tolerance genes
Avicennia marina
Facing the Challenge of Sea level Rise
Integrated Mendelian and Molecular Breeding
Transgenic (T1) rice plants with genes from mangroves in the greenhouse (salt tolerance upto 150 mM)
“Organic agriculture includes all agricultural
systems that promote the environmentally,
socially and economically sound production of
food and fibres. These systems take local soil
fertility as a key to successful production.”
International Federation of Organic
Agriculture Movement (IFOAM) - 2002
Organic Agriculture and Evergreen Revolution
OrganicFarming
1) Soil Health
2) Water Quality
3) Plant Health
5) Animal Health
• Vermiculture• Bio-fertilisers• Stem nodulating
green manure crops
• Bioremediation
• Genetic Resistance• Biopesticides
• Vaccines• High quality
feeds and fodder
6) Environment
• Biomonitoring through Bio-indicators
• Higher Carbon Sequestration
4) Post-harvest Technology
• New strains with improved keeping, processing and transport qualities
IFOAM : Genetic Engineering is excluded in organic agriculture
Biotechnology and Organic Agriculture
“We are committed to study, share and facilitate the responsible use of biotechnology in addressing development needs”
Civil Society Organisations’ Declaration
“Genetically modified organisms represent a threat to family farmers, other food producers, the integrity of genetic resources and human and environmental health. They will affect particularly the rural poor, who cannot afford this costly alternative”
World Food Summit Plus 5,Rome (June 10-13, 2002)Declaration on Biotechnology
The Way Ahead
Our ability to achieve a paradigm shift from
green to an ever-green revolution and our ability
to face the challenges of global warming and
sea level rise will depend upon our ability to
harmonise organic farming and the new
genetics.
Genetic Modification in Crop Plants:IFOAM Concerns and Way Ahead
S.NoS.No ConcernConcern Way AheadWay Ahead
1.1. Negative and irreversible Negative and irreversible environmental impactsenvironmental impacts
Needs careful monitoring; no Needs careful monitoring; no documentary proof so fardocumentary proof so far
2.2. Release of organisms Release of organisms which have never before which have never before existed in nature and which existed in nature and which cannot be recalledcannot be recalled
Applies to micro-organisms. First Applies to micro-organisms. First patent for a LMO patent for a LMO PseudomonasPseudomonas was obtained by Anand was obtained by Anand Chakroborty in 1981. No Chakroborty in 1981. No problem reported so far, but problem reported so far, but prospects for bio-terrorism need prospects for bio-terrorism need surveillancesurveillance
3.3. Pollution of the gene-pool Pollution of the gene-pool of cultivated crops, micro-of cultivated crops, micro-organisms and animalsorganisms and animals
Declaring centres of origin and Declaring centres of origin and diversity as GMO free diversity as GMO free sanctuariessanctuaries
Contd…
S.NoS.No ConcernConcern Way AheadWay Ahead
4.4. Denial of free choice, both Denial of free choice, both for farmers and consumersfor farmers and consumers
Genetic literacy; labelling of GM Genetic literacy; labelling of GM foodsfoods
5.5. Violation of farmers’ Violation of farmers’ fundamental property fundamental property rights and endangerment rights and endangerment of their independenceof their independence
Safeguarding Farmers’ Rights Safeguarding Farmers’ Rights through legislation and getting a through legislation and getting a Universal Declaration on “The Universal Declaration on “The Plant Genome and Farmers’ Plant Genome and Farmers’ Rights” adopted in FAORights” adopted in FAO
6.6. Practices which are Practices which are incompatible with the incompatible with the principles of sustainable principles of sustainable agricultureagriculture
Avoiding genetic homogeneity Avoiding genetic homogeneity and thereby genetic vulnerability and thereby genetic vulnerability to biotic and abiotic stresses to biotic and abiotic stresses through an integrated system of through an integrated system of pre-breeding and participatory pre-breeding and participatory breeding with farm familiesbreeding with farm families
Contd…
S.NoS.No ConcernConcern Way AheadWay Ahead
7.7. Unacceptable threats to Unacceptable threats to human healthhuman health
Strengthening screening for Strengthening screening for allergenic properties; developing allergenic properties; developing and adopting “and adopting “clean geneclean gene” ” transformation techniques.transformation techniques.
8.8. Ban GMOs in all Ban GMOs in all agricultureagriculture
Fifty years of research since the Fifty years of research since the discovery of the Double Helix discovery of the Double Helix structure of DNA has revealed structure of DNA has revealed enormous potential for the safe enormous potential for the safe and responsible use of genetic and responsible use of genetic engineering in medicine, agri-engineering in medicine, agri-culture, industry and environment culture, industry and environment protection (bio-monitoring and protection (bio-monitoring and bio-remediation). Rather than bio-remediation). Rather than repeat Lysenkoism in scientific repeat Lysenkoism in scientific enquiry, it is important that enquiry, it is important that mandatory codes of conduct and mandatory codes of conduct and regulatory mechanisms which regulatory mechanisms which inspire public confidence are put inspire public confidence are put in place.in place.
NGO DeclarationFAO Rome World Food Summit Plus Five (2002)
S.NoS.No ConcernConcern Way AheadWay Ahead
1.1. GMOs represent a threat to GMOs represent a threat to family farmers and other family farmers and other food producersfood producers
Need for greater public under-Need for greater public under-standing and public-professional standing and public-professional consensus on threats and consensus on threats and opportunitiesopportunities
2.2. GMOs affect the integrity GMOs affect the integrity of genetic resources and of genetic resources and environmental healthenvironmental health
Declare areas of origin and Declare areas of origin and diversity of crop plants as GMO-diversity of crop plants as GMO-free zones; Avoid genetic free zones; Avoid genetic homogeneityhomogeneity
3.3. GMOs affect adversely GMOs affect adversely human healthhuman health
Both the science (eg. antibiotic Both the science (eg. antibiotic markers) and food safety markers) and food safety standards need careful review; standards need careful review; Codex alimentariusCodex alimentarius standards standards have to be appropriately have to be appropriately reformulatedreformulated
S.NoS.No ConcernConcern Way AheadWay Ahead
4.4. GMOs will affect parti-GMOs will affect parti-cularly the rural poor, who cularly the rural poor, who cannot afford this costly cannot afford this costly alternativealternative
Public policies which can ensure Public policies which can ensure that appropriate genetic material that appropriate genetic material reach the unreached should be reach the unreached should be put in place. They come under put in place. They come under the non-trade distorting pro-the non-trade distorting pro-visions of WTO.visions of WTO.
5.5. Monopolistic control by Monopolistic control by Multi-national companies Multi-national companies over food securityover food security
Enlarge support to public good Enlarge support to public good research both National and research both National and InternationalInternational
“The problem before us is how to feed billions of new mouths over the next several decades and save the rest of life at the same time, without being trapped in a Faustian bargain that threatens freedom from security. The benefits must come from an evergreen revolution. The aim of this new thrust is to lift food production well above the level attained by the green revolution of the 1960s, using technology and regulatory policy more advanced and even safer than now in existence”
Edward O. Wilson, 2002 The Future of life
Ever-green Revolution