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You can see a video recording of the presentation here: http://stream.3dstudio.fi/lifecycle/player.html?src=http://stream.3dstudio.fi/lifecycle/manifest/Klimstra_Africa_presentation.f4m Presented by Dr Jacob Klimstra in Power-Gen Africa 2012 in Johannesburg, South Africa.
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1
SMART POWER GENERATION TECHNOLOGY FOR AFRICA
JACOB KLIMSTRA FOR WÄRTSILÄ POWER PLANTS
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 2012
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20122
THE CHALLENGE: MUCH MORE QUALITY ELECTRICITY NEEDEDAS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,0000
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Gross Domestic Product (PPP) per capita per year in 2009 (year 2000 U$$)
Electricity use per capita per year (kWh)Africa
LatinAmerica
Asia (excl. China)
China
Middle East
EuropeNorth America
WorldAverage
Trend lineR2 = 0.95
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20123
AFRICA IS NOT AFRICA AVERAGED
1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 7500
100
200
300
400
500
600
Final electricity use per capita (kWh/annum)
Population (millions)
Africa totalaveraged
World Average2 500 kWh/cap/year
Africa total minusRep. South Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa minusRep. South Africa
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20124
Typical trend for a desirable electricity supply
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2015 20250
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000desired kWh/cap trend year 2009 world average target for 2025
kWh/capita/year
year
Growth:from 7% towards > 20%
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20125
FLEXIBILITY IS CRUCIAL:THE SMART APPROACH‘Economic boom for Sub-Saharan Africa’‘Bleak outlook for the world economy’‘Solar PV reaches grid parity’‘(No) Agreement on CO2 reduction’
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20126
MULTIPLE GENERATING UNITS IN PARALLEL OR ONE BIG ONE?
• Reliability and availability(tripping & maintenance)
• Power output flexibility(demand variations)
• Power capacity flexibility(economic circumstances)
• Fuel flexibility (gas, bio gas, oil, bio oil)• Capital costs• Local skills
Single Big Power Plant500 MW
n Smaller units500 MW
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20127
POWER AVAILABILITY
IN ENERGY-DEPENDENT COUNTRIES (OECD OR EDC): 99% to 99.99% availability of electricity
99%: 3.7 days per year no electricity
99.9%: 9 hours per year no electricity
99.99%: 53 minutes per year no electricity
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20128
THE N+ 1 APPROACH: 5 CAN CARRY THE LOAD OF 6
2 3 4 5 6 71E-11
0.000000001
0.0000001
0.00001
0.001
0.1
10
Probability (%)
Number of units failing at the same time
0.144089402
0.001940598
1.47015E-05
5.94E-08
1E-10
99.85%sufficient power
Unit reliability 99%
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 20129
A TYPICAL DAILY DEMAND PATTERN
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Power (MW)
Time of the day (h)
Intermediate load
Peak load
Base load
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201210
NOW: SOLAR PV BREAKS THROUGH
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 240
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Power (MW)
Time of the day (h)
Solar Demand Generators
Steep andsubstantial peak
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201211
FAST RESPONSE NEEDED
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 4200
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Power (MW)
Time (minute)
Gas Engine GTCC Steam Plant
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201212
LOWER UTILISATION FACTOR CAPITAL COSTS
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000
5
10
15
20
25
30
Relative capital costs per kWh
Utilisation factor (%)
Coal-fired PP Nuclear PPGas Engine PP
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201213
SMART POWER GENERATION:EFFICIENT, FLEXIBLE, FAST, LOW COSTS
Multiple units in parallel runonly when needed
Electricity grid connection
Fuel supply
1 102 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201214
CASCADING: ONLY RUN WHEN IT IS REALLY NEEDED
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1800
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Fuel efficiency (%)
Power output (MW)
Single Generating Unit Cascading Power Plant
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201215
MINIMUM MAINTENANCE COSTS
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1800
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Specific maintenance costs (€cts/kWh)
Power output (MW)
Single Generating Unit Cascading Power Plant
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201216
POWERPLANTS IN AFRICA
HFO DUAL LFO
GAS Crude
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201217
AFRICA INDUSTRIES
HFO DUAL LFO
GAS Crude
Total output 2442.4 MWPlants 353Engines 752In Countries 38
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201218
AFRICA UTILITIES
HFO DUAL LFO
GAS
Total output 4198.9 MWPlants 417Engines 949In Countries 42
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201219
IN CONCLUSION
1. Africa shows huge growth in power demand
2. Africa needs flexible power plants
3. Power plants based on multiple units offer flexibility,reliability and efficiency
4. Africa is already a forerunner with flexible plants
© Wärtsilä | POWERGEN AFRICA 201220
VISION – SMART POWER GENERATION