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Behind the Smart Curtain
Copenhagen, March 2012
Opportunities for investments in the Smart Grid development in Italy – A market size exercise
Luca Valota – EnergyLab Foundation – [email protected]
Presented by Luca Valota EnergyLab Foundation 1
The Smart Grid, however we want to define it, will require investments and create opportunities
Smart Grid products/services categories
Re
turn
ed
Va
lue
(Re
turn
of
Inv
es
tme
nt)
Incremental investment
Grid Automation
and / Asset
Management
Demand
response
Services and
utility roles
Infrastructure
and AMR
Returned general value on investments
incremental increase for Smart Grid
Presented by Luca Valota EnergyLab Foundation 2
The smart grid is rather an “evolution” than a “revolution” so parallel single steps could be identified by their maturity
All the energy players will face the fact of
an increasing level of “Smart Grid”
investments in order to maintain their
business, evolve and create the growth
conditions for further customers
In particular, DSO, TSO and utility will
face the most part for the pressure on
investment increase, with probable shift
to the final customers and users
The evolution will be an integration of
technology and not a one shoot
implementation and event
The opportunity is more related to
market issues (being closer to customer
needs) and integration issues (put the
technology all together in an effective
way)
From this analysis several important key
results can be delivered
Presented by Luca Valota EnergyLab Foundation 3
The Smart Grid investments includes several
different typologies of products and services
Number of products/services by typology and
maturity level
The full life CAPEX for the implementation of the
Smart Grid in Italy is between 70 and 105 billions
dollars
Cumulative CAPEX
Presented by Luca Valota EnergyLab Foundation 4
50% of the CAPEX for the next technological step
is related to Smart Meters and Smart Homes
The industrial sector of electrotechnics and
electronics will cover the most part of the
investments
Investimenti in CAPEX (per settore industriale)
HIGH Cost Scenario
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
SG2 SG3 SG4 SG5 SG6 SG7 SG8
Millio
ns
US
D
General Services
Installation and O&M
ICT Services
Electronics and M easurements
appliances
Electrotechnics
M echanical and Electrical
appliances
CAPEX by industrial sector of investment for
high cost scenario
Percentage CAPEX cumulative in the high cost
scenario
CAPEX percentuale (per settore industriale) per il dato
cumulativo
HIGH COST Scenario
4% 7% 5%
19% 17%25% 22%
45%
56%
43%
40% 42%31% 35%
41%
30%
31%
24% 22% 30% 30%
5% 3%
15% 11% 11%8% 6%
4% 5% 5% 4%4% 4% 4%
1% 0% 1% 2% 4% 3% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
SG2 SG3 SG4 SG5 SG6 SG7 SG8
General ServicesInstallation and O&MICT ServicesElectronics and Measurements appliancesElectrotechnicsMechanical and Electrical appliances
Full implementation of
Advanced Smart
Appliances
Presented by Luca Valota EnergyLab Foundation 5
In the moderate scenario, we foreseen a cumulative
investment of about 5,2 billions dollar in 2020
Investimento totale cumulato (per scenario)
- Low Cost
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Milio
ni U
SD
Low
Moderate
High
Total cumulative CAPEX per scenario in high
cost hypothesis Incremental CAPEX – Moderate scenario
Even the incremental CAPEX is increasing year
by year
Presented by Luca Valota EnergyLab Foundation 6
In the long run all technologies are commodity, so the real opportunities stand in the utilization and integration toward consumer needs
The investment in the Smart Grid sector will heavily increase over the next years in Italy
Anyway, the Smart Grid sector is not capital intensive respect to other investments in the energy sector
The investments are fragmented to several different typologies and products specifications
The focal point will consist in the ability to aggregate and integrate the solutions toward best solution for customers
Take home…
