Sdp Asia Workshop Sample

1© 2008 Alan Quayle

Application Stores, Developer Communities, Content, Games and Widgets: Strategic

Market Review and Operator Opportunity / Risk Analysis

Alan QuayleBusiness and Service Development

www.alanquayle.com/blog


Landscape

Strategies &Action Plans

OperatorActivities

Opportunities& Threats


Morning Session

• 9.30 Market Landscape : Review The ‘Open’ Initiatives And Their Business Opportunities & Impact

– Joint Innovation Labs (Vodafone, Verizon, China Mobile and Softbank) Can a market of 1 billion customers ever be wrong?

– GSMA’s OneAPI (Network API specification based upon ParlayX) Will customers / application developers pay?

– OMTP's (Open Mobile Terminal Platform) BONDI (handset based API)Will this enable operator bypass?

– LiMo (Linux Mobile) and Android True open source versus a proprietary java virtual machine

– Web-centric initiatives such as Open Ajax Alliance and W3C widgetsConverging web and telco on the device

– Consumer electronics and OS platforms and strategies (e.g. Nokia Ovi, Apple App Store, etc) and the rise of internet retailers (e.g. Amazon.com – Kindle is just their first step!)

• 11.00 Morning Refreshments

• 11.30 Updates & Analysis On Telecom Operator Activities And Initiatives– O2 Litmus (open co-development community)– Orange Partner (leading example of a traditional operator developer community)– Telus’s success with OneAPI versus Three Australia’s challenges– Cricket’s MyHomeStore (widgets for all phones – the re-emergence of the ODP)– Telenor’s CPA (Content Provider Access) and Playground – the impact of a common API

across all operators within a country– Verizon AppZone – aggregating content through a single Storefront

• 12.30 Networking Lunch


Afternoon Session

• 1.45 Quantifying the Opportunities and Threats– Reviewing and quantifying the success of the consumer electronics (e.g. Apple

and Nokia) and operating system (e.g. Android and Microsoft) app stores versus the existing $31B mobile content market

What are the key learning points for operatorsWhat should / should not be copied?

– Within the app stores what are the opportunities and emerging bypass threats to the core revenue streams of voice and messaging?

– What is the revenue and margin potential?

• 3.15 Afternoon Refreshments

• 3.45 Moving Forward: Strategies & Action Plans– Do operators really need developer communities or is content ingestion

enough?– What should an integrated storefront strategy look like?– What are an operator’s differentiators?– Why should customer relationship management be part of that strategy?– Why will customers use an operator’s storefront?

• 4.45 Close of Workshop


Market Landscape


Structure

• App Store Ecosystem• Definitions• How JIL, W3C, OpenAPI, BONDI, AJAX, and SDP all fit

together• OneAPI and Telus• BONDI, JIL, Zembly, OneApp• Impact on the SDP• Apple• Nokia Ovi• Android• Developer perspective• Community Magic Quadrants• What an Operator must do


App Store Ecosystem

DirectRelationshipStore Front

DeveloperCommunity

Developers/ Content

Consumer Electronics / OS Store

DeveloperCommunities

DirectRelationshipStore Front

Operator Store

OperatorApps

StoreFrontDirectRelationshipStore Front

IngestionManagement

IngestionManagement

DeveloperCommunity

Store Front strategy is independent of access technology. Bottomline: corner stores still survive despite Walmart - because they know the customer and are convenient


Application EcosystemApplication or Content Developer

Dial2do

Application or Content Aggregator / Publisher

Sony

HP, Handmark, Operator, and Operator development community

Store specific aggregation

Operator (content standards) and possibly 3rd party (Device

Anywhere) and/or standards body (Symbian/Java)

Application ingestion approval / testing

Accenture, Operator, Volantis, Handmark

Application store infrastructure / backend operations (IT)

Operator

Application store brand, marketing and commercials


Definitions

• Widgets– User interface (rendered in browser)– 3 things: HTML, CSS, JavaScript

Though there are variations: e.g. Facebook defines FBML, FBJS

• Data Services– Back-end logic – running on a web-server

For example: JavaScript 1.6 including E4X (processing XML objects in JavaScript)

– Called from widgets or from other services

• API– Externally available value-added services

Generally a RESTful servicesDescribed by WADL(Web Application Description Language)

– Called from other widgets and services– Requires some entity to manage the security, policies and

quality of service (e.g. Mashery, or a mash-up server)


How it all Fits Together

Network


Bringing in the SDP – Will it be Bypassed?

NetworkNetworkNetworkNetwork

SDP

Client APIs will substitute some

network capabilities (e.g. location.) Policy and API

management can come from SDP

SDP can mash-up social network

APIs and communication

network policies / APIs (Zembly)


GSMA’s OneAPI

GSMA’s OneAPI provides a common network API across most popular API frameworks


Telus Provides a Useful Reference Case

Telus has focused on business services, with strategic partners.Accelerated service innovation from 4 to 40 services per year.


Mapping the Operator Developer Community Landscape

Enterprise App Consumer App

Enterprise IT Content

Three API

Cricket

Telus

BT Ribbit

AT&T

Vodafone Betavine

Sprint ADPVerizon

OrangeChinaMobile

TelenorCPA

Globe

Only Telus and BT Ribbit have a solid enterprise focus, Orange Partner, VDC and China Mobile are attempts at enterprise, they lack focus


Enterprise App Consumer App

Enterprise IT Content

Mapping the Consumer Electronics / Operating System Developer Community Landscape

Salesforce.comAppExchange

Sun

FacebookPalm

Nokia OviGetjar

AndroidHandango Samsung

MicrosoftiPhone

RIM

Apple recently executed a plan supporting enterprise app developers and internal enterprise IT developers (those who do not sell on the store)


Capabilities Application Developers Seek

• Single sign-on• Address Book API• Age Verification• Billing/Charging• Identity/Authentication• Location• Messaging• Profile API• File Browsing• Browser based API• Presence• SIP/VOIP/Call Control• Mobile Lookup• Connection status• Discoverability• Short codes• Plus lots and lots more……


Potential Telco API capabilities (from App Vendor Survey)

• Authentication & Single Sign-on• Presence (device, application, call state)

and Availability• Device Capabilities / Software• Location (accuracies and freshness),

Proximity, Heading, Speed• Preferences (policies or rules)• Context – a combination of presence,

location, device status, application status, meeting status (calendar), etc.

• Customer data (business intelligence)• Call Control• Messaging • Network address book• Group List Server (buddy lists)• Enterprise Mobilization• VoIP / SIP: tone insertion• Call Flow: ACD, IVR, CRM, Helpdesk• Charging / Billing• Call Log / Call events • Directory • Message Store

• Home Network Enabler• Content Delivery• Policy (Quality of Service)• IPTV enablers• IPTV STB enablers• Content Enablers• Collaboration Enablers• VoIP / SIP call control including invoking

supplementary services• Fulfilment and other BOSS capabilities• Digital Rights Management• Device Management• Local dial in number provisioning • Ringtone purchase integration• Video-ringtone platform• Subscription status• Mobile Video• CDR number frequency search• Calling Name dip

And the list goes on, much further on….. Prioritization is critical

High

Pop

ular

ity

Developers are excited about the many capabilities and information

an operator has available; but getting the community / business

basics is more important


Distribution Discovery

PredictableProcess

Clear Pathto Cash

Developers’ Problems an Operator must Solve


Operator Activities


Structure

• Vodafone Betavine• Verizon Developer Community• Orange Partner• Telenor Content Provider Access• Cricket Communications


Vodafone Betavine Analysis (Deep Dive)


Structure

• Betavine home screen and focus• Developer quotes• Community activity• Customer engagement• Developer perception• Vodafone’s application strategy and business model• Vodafone’s App Store strategy• Vodafone’s widget focus (obsession)• Home screen, App Store and MyWeb (widget engine)• Channels, partnering and sharing• Betavine going forward• Operator Impact


Cricket Communications: Phone-Top Experience


Cricket’s Phone Top Experience

HomeScreen is front and center of the customer’s phone experience, Services included incMyHomeScreen:• Website widget, and of course any website can be presented as a widget• Storefront widget for graphics, tones, themes, games or ringbacks. Here Cricket can aggregate a number of catalogs to present a unified storefront;• Account status widget to see the prepaid balance, call detail records, status of orders, etc; and• Of course the usual weather, news, gossip, entertainment widgets;


Cricket MyHomeScreen: On Device Portal Example

Cricket is an example of a phone-top experience that can work across all its

phones (Brew-based operator). Integrates both widgets and App Store.


Cricket MyHomeScreen

Store Front experience is the classic ODP experience covering tones, graphics and games


Cricket’s Impact on Operators• Cricket provides an example of the phone-top experience in

practice– Vodafone are only trialing, Cricket has deployed, Verizon will follow

Cricket’s lead– Operator must have a clear plan on how developers apps will be

presented in a phone-top experience

• Cricket does not have the scale to create its own developer community

– It will need to partner– Aggregates a number of existing Brew stores at present

• Its focused is on creating a simple, easy to use, front-and-center experience that can

– Educate ALL customers on the additional services Cricket can provide – Drive consumption of data services and content

• For more info on Cricket’s MyHomeScreen check out http://www.alanquayle.com/blog/2009/06/crickets-myhomescreen-shows-th.html

Cricket provides a deployment example of the integrated (app, content and widget) phone-top experience


Threats and Opportunities


Mobile Application Revenue could reach $6B by 2013, 2008 is was $118M (US), $240M (Global)

Broader Mobile Data Revenue breakdown by type of service, 2008-2014

Source: Pyramid Research Mobile Data Forecasts, Q1 2009

$6B Mobile application revenue is part of broader $46B mobile data revenue opportunity by 2013


Strategic Context: Re-engineering the Web

’90-’05Development of the

basic platform.

Focus on infrastructure, capacity expansion and mass

market connectivity.

<100kbps

’00-’10Focus on user

experience, open programmable systems,

connecting people.

Partner with media companies, social networking, advertising based models, IP

control and QoS.

<10Mbps

’10-’20Web becomes intelligent, understand / anticipates users needs – rise of the

‘trusted agent.’

Fundamental shift in business model, dumb or smart pipe? Question mark of operators’

role as ‘trusted agent.’

<100Mbps

Web 1.0

Web 2.0

Web 3.0

Era Date Characteristic Access Operator Implications

Can Operators become the Trusted Agent?


Strategic Context: Power of Devices drives Peer to Peer

Assumptions ShatteredFaster CPUs, 3D graphics

Massive storageHigh definition displays

Media centricSmartphone penetration >50%

Always OnlineMultiple PDP context

Multiple accessApplication driven

Web-centric

Intelligently ConnectedPush as well as pull

Pervasive P2PSmart UIs

Context aware

Intelligence is now at the edge


Critical Factor: Customer’s Perceptions are Changing

OtherVoice

Utility

Productivity

PIM

MultimediaBrowsing

Games

Messaging

Source: Nokia Smartphone 360 SurveyTime allocated to different applications

Applications are no longer ‘web’ or

‘telecom’ services –they’re just apps.

User doesn’t care if message delivered by SMS, MMS, IM

or email.

Subscribers are no longer ‘voice subscribers,’

they’re Internet subscribers – voice

is just an app.Access to

multimedia is no longer constrained

by the network

Mobile broadband starts to substitute fixed broadband

Voice makes up an increasingly small percentage of a smartphone’s usage, critical to embed such capabilities into other apps/processes


Strategic Context: Web-based Service Providers are Innovating Faster in Service Providers Core Business

And customers now expect this rate of innovation from their service providers


Strategic Context: Which means that…..

Operators must act now or become a dumb pipe

•Broadband is the growth engine for telecom.•Increasing access capacity increases web-service capabilities

•Broadband is an enablers for all services•Market boundaries diminish as customers expectations change.•Move from vertically to horizontally integrated

•Growth of Web 2.0 community services•“Freemium” models•‘Boiling Frog’expansion into voice

•Web 2.0 start to cannibalize telco’s services•Voice, messaging, IPTV•Multi-play becomes multi-access

Fixed and mobile Broadband is an enabler

Services independent of the network

Rapid usage growth and innovation


Why Operators are Considering SDPs

Access & Distribution

Intelligent Connectivity Applications ContentWholesale

Brokering

Utility access where differentiation is price and network quality.

Bit Pipe

Content and Service Provider

Smart PipeOpen access, controlled and monetized QoS, Billing, Data Mining, Capability Wholesale, Ad Broker

There will be no clear cut between the different scenarios, multiple business models and revenue modules will co-exist.



Fragmentation has Stifled and is now Killing the Industry

20,000 Phones750 Operators

25 OS375,000,000

**


Re-Launch

An Operator’s Product Development Process

Opportunity Identified

18-30 months

Market Research

Find Budget

New product development processLaunch

12-18 months


What’s Changed?

Expectations


What customers expect

6-12 months

Weekly

18-30 months

4 months



High StreetStores

SubsidizedPhones

NetworkControl

EcosystemControl

CustomerRelationship

Brand

BillingRelationship


Strategies and Action Plans


The Three Pillars of an Operators Application Strategy

Trusted AgentBilling, privacy protection, subscriber data management

Services Focus

Use all stores, operators sell

services!

Community Focus

Friends list should be your

Favs list

Contextually Relevant

Use knowledge of

customers

Operators must focus on what they’re good at – not what’s currently fashionable thinking


ServiceProvider

UtilityConnectivity

We’ve been talking about it for over a decade, but now its the customer that’s going to decide


I’ve recently completed an “IMS Status Report”

• Independent and quantified view of what is happening in the industry on IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem),

– 137 interviews, 101 operators around the world– Operator and supplier case studies

• Key Findings– IMS remains niche, with only 8% of those operators surveyed deploying IMS.

Note, none of those operators have completed the conversion of their network, all considered it a 5-7 year process.

– Another 12% are in an extended field trial, which is characterized by services being launched on the IMS core, with in some cases paying customers; but a decision has not yet been made to commit to service migration onto the IMS core.

– IMS does not appear to be entering a period of rapid adoption, rather a linear growth in initial adoption over the next 5 years, with by 2014 about 32% of operators commencing an IMS deployment.

– Regionally, NAR (North America Region) provides the bulk of the growth in years 2010 and 2011, while EMEA (Europe Middle East and Africa) and APAC (Asia Pacific) regions provide the bulk of growth in later years.

– Lack of business case, lack of standards compliance and BOSS (Business and Operational Support System) integration were the top three barriers to adoption as identified by operators.

http://www.mindcommerce.com/Publications/IMS_Status.php

Technology

Sdp Asia Workshop Sample