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Risk management is an important, if not the most important element of project management. By dealing with possible problems and chances the right actions can be planned in due time. This is true especially for SEO projects where lots of risks and chances are waiting for the project stakeholders. In this presentation I give an overview over a risk management process model and the tools that can be used for risk management in SEO projects
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Risk management in SEO projectsRisk management in SEO projectsIntroduction and process modelIntroduction and process model
Download slides on SEO Südwest
Risk-boosting factors in all projects
L k f i d dli
Risk-boosting factors in all projects
• Lack of time, deadlines
• Bad acquisition and controlling of key performance indicators
• Insufficient project management
• Bad management of requirements and expectations
• Huge and long-lasting projects
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Risk-boosting factors in SEO projects
W i b SEO
Risk-boosting factors in SEO projects
• Wrong expectations about SEO success
• No ex-ante planning of SEO success factors
• SEO conducted without project management
• SEO manager in role of project manager without having projectt imanagement experience
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Risk definition
Risk definition: uncertain event that effects one or more project
Risk definition
Risk definition: uncertain event that effects one or more projectobjectives. Notice: effects can be positive or negative!
Example: The outage of an important software developer can cause a p g p ptwo-week delay of project completion
Risks consist of different components:
• Risk event with probability of risk event
• Risk impact with probability of risk impact
• Expected gain or loss calculated from expected effect multipliedwith probability of risk event and risk impact
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Risk components
Risk event Impact Total gain / loss
Probability ofrisk event
Probability ofrisk impact
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T i l SEO i k t
G l d h l i h dl
Typical SEO risk-events
• Google updates search algorithm unexpectedly
• Important backlink is being devaluated
• SEO black hat methods are discovered by Google
• Wrong implementation of „rel canonical“ attribute
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T i l i t f SEO i k
W b i i l d i d d d
Typical impacts of SEO risks
• Website receives a penalty and is downgraded
• Multiple pages vanish from index
• Domain is void due to black hat methods
• Client won‘t pay because he is not satisfied with results
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Ri k t i
K i k h b i i d E l i f ll
Risk categories
• Known risks that can be anticipated. Example: competitors followtheir own SEO strategy and bias succes of your SEO efforts
• Unknown risks that cannot be anticipated Example: change of• Unknown risks that cannot be anticipated. Example: change ofGoogle search algorithm that leads to declined ranking
• Scope risks (caused by frequent change requests or defects)p ( y q g q )
• Schedule risks (delays, dependencies, wrong estimates or multiple critical paths)
• Resource-based risks (outsourcing, distributed teams, integrationof new team members)
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Critical path 1
Multiple critical paths in projects
Task A Task CTask B
Task ETask D Task F Task G Task ITask H
Task J Task MTask LTask K
Critical path 2
A iti l th d t i th d ti f th j t If th iA critical path determines the duration of the project. If there is
more than one critical path in the project, the risk of a higher duration increases.
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F bl i d d b li i d i d
Risk management benefits
• Future problems are recognized and can be eliminated in due time
• Incentive to deal with project more intensely• Incentive to deal with project more intensely
• Incentive to deal with project stakeholders more intensely
P ti f i thi ki i j t t• Promotion of censorious thinking in project team
• More successful projects
• Risk management as a team building activity
• Continous improvement of project management
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Context of risk management
Stakeholdermanagement
Softwaredevelopment
Web development
Risk management Knowledgemanagement
Estimation andcontrolling of effort
Requirementsmanagement
IT and technicaladministration……
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Elements of risk management process
Risk managementplanning Risk identification Risk analysis
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Risk prioritisation Risk solution Risk monitoring andcontrolling
12
Risk management process
Identify risks
Analyse risks ning
P i iti i knew
risks
men
tpla
n
Prioritize risks
Che
ck fo
r
man
agem
Risk solution
Ris
km
Riskmonitoring
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Ri k t l i
D ib th i k t i th j t
Risk management planning
• Describes the risk management process in the project
• What has to be communicated?
• What kind of meetings are needed?
• Which tools, documents etc. are used?
• First estimate of overall project risk
• Definition of risk categories
• Definition of key figures (e.g. for risk probability and impact)
• Schedule planning
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Risk identification (1/2)
S i k id ifi i ibl
Risk identification (1/2)
• Start risk identification as soon as possible
• Iterative process. Repeat throughout the whole project
• Should be part of every status meeting
• Opens out into risk index
• Risk identification tools and techniques:
• Brainstorming, expert reviews
• Checklists
• Document analysis, analysis of assumptionsy y p
Important: include all project areas, respect positive and negative risks!
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Risk identification (2/2)
Fi i b l d hil• First counteraction can be planned whileconducting risk identification already
• Most urgent risks are addressed first• Most urgent risks are addressed first
• Not later than kickoff the risk index must exist
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Risk analysis
Q lit ti tit ti i k l i
Risk analysis
• Qualitative vs. quantitative risk analysis
• Qualitative: classify risk by severity: „low“, „middle“, „high“„ , „ g
• Quantitative: detailed calculation of probabilityand impact
• Qualitative analysis is mainly used for riskprioritisation
• Risk analysis and risk prioritisation can be done• Risk analysis and risk prioritisation can be donetogether
• In order to avoid arbitrariness and subjectiveinfl ence hen defining risk probabilit it makesinfluence when defining risk probability it makessense to use pre-defined rankings like: 0-10%, 11-50 %, 51-80%, 81-100 %.
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Risk analysis: tools and methods
Ri k t i ( lit ti i k l i )
Risk analysis: tools and methods
• Risk matrix (qualitative risk analysis)
• PERT (Program Evolution and Review Technique) comparing optimistic and pessimistic estimationsp g p p(quantitative risk analysis)
• Monte Carlo Analysis (automated and iterative calculation of different project results showscalculation of different project results showsprobability distribution)
• Expert reviewsp
• Interviews
• Workshopsp
The latter four used for quantitative and qualitative analysis as well
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Risk matrix
high
Risk matrix
ability
Prob
I tImpactlow high
Risk severity
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Risk severity
Risk prioritisation
Af d i i i k b bili d i h
Risk prioritisation
• After determining risk probability and impact theorder of handling risks has to be defined
• Concentrate on a set of most important risks top• Concentrate on a set of most important risks top-10 list
• Marginal cost for solving an additional risk have tog gbe equal or smaller than marginal loss caused bythis additional risk
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Risk solution
D fi f i i i d
Risk solution
• Define counter measurements for every prioritizedrisk. Decide between actions concerning risk eventsand actions concerning risk impact.
• Define responsibilities
• Define those risks that no actions will be taken for(active / passive risk acceptance)
• Update project plan
• Create fallback-plan with actions to be taken if initialactions fail.
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Risk solution strategiesRisk solution - strategies
Risk Chance Example
Avoid Exploit Remove or add certaintasks from / to project plan
Mitigate Emphasize Influence risk probabilityand / or risk impact
Transmit Share Involve additional playersto handle risk or chance
Active: build reserves forAcceptance (active oder passive) the case of risk occurrence
Passive: action is definedafter risk occurrence first.
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Risk monitoring and controlling
Ch k f i k i l Ri k h ld
Risk monitoring and controlling
• Check status of risks continously. Risk status shouldbe part of every status meeting.
• Are there any risks that can be removed from risk• Are there any risks that can be removed from riskindex because they are no longer relevant orhaven‘t occurred?
• Are there new risks to be analyzed?
• Has there been a change of risk priorities? Is thetop-list of risks still up-to-date?
• Have the chosen risk solutions been appropriate?
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Resumé
•Risk management important in projects – especially when doing SEO
•Risk management needs to be plannedRisk management needs to be planned
•Risk management is an iterative process
Contact information:
SEO Südwest
Christian Kunz
http://www.seo-suedwest.de
Download slides on SEO Südwest
28.08.2012 24© SEO Südwest 2012
Download slides on SEO Südwest
List of references
• Smith Preston G / Merritt Guy M : Proactive Risk Management Productivity Press 2002
List of references
• Smith, Preston G. / Merritt, Guy M. : Proactive Risk Management. Productivity Press 2002
• Heldman, Kim: Project Manager‘s Spotlight on Risk Management. Sybex 2005
• Kendrick, Tom: Identifying and Managing Project Risk: Essential Tools for Failure‐Proofing Your Project. Amacom 2003
• Wideman, Max R.: Project and Program Risk Management: A Guide to Managing Project Risks andOpportunities. Project Management Institute 1992
• Vose David: Risk Analysis A Quantitative Guide Second Edition John Wiley and Sons (UK) 2002• Vose, David: Risk Analysis, A Quantitative Guide, Second Edition. John Wiley and Sons (UK) 2002
• Schuyler, John: Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, Second Edition. Project Management Institute 2001
• Mulcahy, Rita: PMP Exam Prep: Rita‘s Course in a Book for Passing the PMP Exam, Fifth Edition. RMX Publications 2005
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