Powerpoint đông nam á 1

Sea Economic Development

Topic 6: Economic development

planning and management

Instructor: Ph.D Nguyen Trong Dac

Group 12: Bui Thi Huyen

Pham Thao Hang

Tran Thi Thuy

I.

NATURE AND FUNCTIONS OF

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT.

Strategic Economic Development Planning (SEDP):

Respresents a way of thinking about local economic change and its management.

An interactive and integrated process of analysis which enables a community to adapt to change through the critical, and ongoing, assessment of its status relative to the evolution of its operating environment

Strategic economic development planning

focusses on key actions implementable by

the community; lengthy "wish-lists" of

goals, objectives, and policies are

avoided.

To stimulate, and convert, thought about

economic development problems and

potentials into tangible, co-ordinated

actions.

The Strategic Economic Development

Planning (SEDP) Process:

Stage 1: Organizing for SEDP

Stage 2: Context-Setting

Stage 3: Planning Becomes Action

Stage 4: Monitoring and Evaluation

Stage 1: Organizing for SEDP

Must be in place prior to start-up of strategic economic development planning.

SEDP will require team-work

The lead co-ordinative role is usually taken by the municipal government. The resources of local government, the private sector, not-for-profit agencies, and special interest groups should be identified and "tapped"

Stage 2: Context-Setting

collection and interpretation of the

information necessary

to assess the relative internal strengths and

weaknesses of the community in terms of

the external opportunities and threats

identified in the community's economic

development operating environment

Stage 3: Planning Becomes Action

The plan is operationalized

To attain the selected goals

Priorities are set, project, policy, and program staging determined, and responsibilities delegated that reflect the community's economic development interests and resources.

Stage 4: Monitoring and Evaluation

Performance measures should be developed and applied

The appropriateness of the strategies should be constantly evaluated as the process evolves; adaptation of the strategies and tactics in response to changes in the operating environment is a fundamental part. of the strategic economic development planning process

II. National and

International background

for planning and management

of economic development

1. National background

Economic conditions

Social conditions

Economic condition

Agriculture

Industry

Services

Inflation

GDP

Financial Domestic Resources

Region A: Agriculture

Agriculture is a vital

development tool for achieving

the millennium development

goals.

In 2015 it was reduced to

half of those suffering from

extreme poverty in the world.

This is the general message

of the World Development

Report in 2008.

Agriculture

In the 21st century, looking on a global

scale, agriculture is still the primary tool for

sustainable development and poverty

reduction.

Agricultural activities in the third world

characteristics: first, the national agricultural

second, the transition

countries, three, urbanized countries.

Agriculture in Malaysia

Agriculture remains an important sector

of Malaysia's economy, contributing 12

percent (2012) to the national GDP and

providing employment for 16 percent of

the population.

Agricultural exports such as rubber, oil

palm and cocoa are a major source of

export earnings and have significantly

contributed to the development of the

agricultural sector and the economy as a

whole.

Agriculture in Malaysia

Agriculture in Vietnam

• Becoming one of the world 's leading rice exporter (8 million tons) and second producer of robusta coffee.

Now

• Exported 25 million tons of rice, earning over U.S. $ 10 billion from 2005 to the present. Value added from 3.7 to 4% / year, exceeding the 5-year plan of the Government's target of 3 - 3.2% / year.

In 2005

• The average rural household income was 26 million, up 11 million over 2003; cumulative average increase from 3.5 million in 2005 to 6.7 million in 2009.

In 2009

USA ‘s Agriculture

In United State: In the early days of this country, agricultural activity has held a major position in the economy and American culture.

In 1940, 6 million farms and average farm of about 67 acres each. By the late 1990s, only about 2.2 million farms, but the farm has an area of 190 hectares.

It was also during this period, the number of agricultural workers declined dramatically -from 12.5 million in 1930 to 1.2 million at the end of the 1990s - even though the U.S ‘s population increased more than double

Region B: Industry

Industry

Industrial development and poverty alleviation

Over 9 million people die worldwide each year because of hunger, Approximately 1.2 billion people suffer from hunger. Southeast Asia countries are developing country, poverty rate still remain high. So, solving the poverty problem is important and necessary. Reducing the level of poverty thus remain the Government’s major develop challenge. Government will discuss direct and indirect, medium-term and long- term linkages that exist between industrial development and poverty alleviation. Two basic facts must be appreciated when formulating industrial policy in the world.

Industry

Industrial development and regional balance

Formal industries will not locate in rural areas unless a strong linkage exist with a rural resource that has to be processed on the spot. Industrial development’s contribution to regional balance will follow the two lines of rural industrialization as well as formal urban-based industrialization.

Industrial development and environment

The central urban adopts the strategy of removing the industrial enterprises but encourage the service trade, it's to direct the industrial enterprises' combination, relocation, transformation and management. Accelerate the environmental infrastructure construction, which achieve the economic and effective treatment on pollution. Environmental infrastructure construction is an important measure of pollution control as well as the important foundation to support the national long-term sustainable development.

Chinese Industry

Chinese the rate of growth of industrial output in 2012 reached 10%, but this increase is lower than the 3.9% growth recorded in 2011.

During the month 12/2012, industrial production increased by 10.3% compared with a year earlier, slightly higher than the 10.1% increase in November. Previously, the technology yields fell to the lowest level of growth in the years into August with an increase of only 8.9%.

In heavy industry, industrial output jumped 10.6% year over year, while light industry recorded a 9.6% increase.

China's economy has accelerated in the fourth quarter, reaching 7.9% after the lowest level since the second quarter of 2009 to 7.4% in the previous quarter.

Japan Industry The industrial park focused on the

Pacific Rim including Keihin (In the Kanto plains), Chukyo (Nagoya concentrate around), Hanshin (Osaka), Setouchi (Surrounding Hiroshima) and Kitakyushu (Kitakyushu Surrounds and Fukuoka). In particular, the Keihin is most important and 42% of Japan's total industrial output.

Along with the traditional sector is the industrial and high-tech electronics. The company is headquartered here include: NEC, Sanyo.

Region C : Services in

Vietnam

• From 1995 to 2003, volume of freight nearly doubled.

• Over the past 20 years, the service sector has increased 5 percentage points in GDP economy. In 2004, this sector contributed 3.02 percentage points to the GDP growth rate (7.69%).

• The growth of the service sector is lower than the growth rate of the economy. Compared Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, countries 's service sector contribution to GDP is still low (38% compared 64.96%, 49.79%, 41.92% respectively).

Region D: Inflation

Definition

Inflation means the rate at which the general

level of prices for goods and services is

rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power

is falling.

Measures

Inflation

Consumer Price Index ( CPI)

Commodity Price Index

Cost of Living Index ( COLI)

In Asia

Predicted inflation in India may be up to 10%, and in Southeast Asia, this number will exceed 5%. forecast inflation in China will increase to 4%, more than double the current level

Inflation in India has become an issue that the country's central bank "headache" in the last year and that they can not cut interest rates aggressively to stimulate the economy is in a state of meager. Wholesale price index, the main inflation gauge in India, rose 7.24% in November compared with the same period last year.

Home prices in Singapore rose 56% during the period from 2007 to date and most analysts predict this trend will continue this year on the basis of interest rate home loan at a low level.

In Hong Kong, house prices have risen about 20% in 2012, after rising 60% in the last decade. The escalation of house prices in this region comes from the interest rates for home mortgages and record low cash flow in from the outside

Region E: Gross Domestic

Product Definition

In economics, the total domestic product or total gross domestic product or GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a national territory for a certain period (usually in a year)

GDP = C + I + G +NX

- C (Consumer) is consumption of all individuals (households) in the economy.

- I (Investment) is investment of many business in the business sectors.

- G (Government) is total government spending (government consumption).

- NX (Net export) = exports - imports

In Malaysia

The Gross Domestic Product of Malaysia is depends on its agricultural sector, manufacturing industries and the service sectors. In 2008, the agricultural sector had contributed 9.7 % towards the country’s GDP. The contributions of the manufacturing industries were estimated as 44.6% and that of service sector was 45.7 % towards the country’s GDP. As per the GDP- PPP (Purchasing Power Parity), Malaysia is ranked 29th in the world. A GDP growth rate of 20 % was noticed towards the end of 20th century. The Gross Domestic Product nominal of Malaysia in 2009 was estimated as US$ 207,400 billion in 2009 and that of GDP-PPP was estimated as $ 3.9 billion. The GDP nominal per capita in 2009 was estimated as US$ 8.100.

Finance Domestic resources

Dangerous levels of nonperforming assets at Thai banks helped trigger the attack on the Thai baht by currency speculators that led to the Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998. By 2003 nonperforming assets had been cut in half to about 30 percent.

Despite a return to profitability, however, Thailand's banks continue to struggle with the legacy of the financial crisis in the form of unrealized losses and inadequate capital.

In addition, the Thai government is attempting to strengthen the financial sector through the consolidation of commercial, state-owned, and foreign-owned institutions.

The Bank of Thailand sought to stem the flow of foreign funds into the country in December 2006. The massive selling by foreign investors amounted more than US$708 million

Social resources

Human capital

Policies

Unemployment

Human capital

Nowaday, people are considered to be a'' special'' resource, a source of economic development.

There is the view that human resource development: a value for human, material values and the spirit, the mind and soul as well as professional skills, cause people to become workers have the capacity and quality of the new, higher, meet the big demand and the increasing of economic development - social.

Development is the process of improving human capacity in all aspects: physical strength, mental power, mind power, and distribution.

High quality of human resources is a concept to indicate a person, a specific employee skill levels (professional and technical),certain techniques (University, the universities, colleges, skilled technical workers).

Policies

(1) Average tariff rates

(2) Extent of imports governed by

quotas and licensing

(3) Average export taxes

(4) The size of the black market

premium on the exchange rate

Unemployment

Frictional unemployment

Is the time period between jobs when a worker is searching for, or transitioning from one job to another. It is sometimes called search unemployment and can be voluntary based on the circumstances of the unemployed individual. Frictional unemployment is always present in an economy, so the level of involuntary unemployment is properly the unemployment rate minus the rate of frictional unemployment, which means that increases or decreases in unemployment are normally under-represented in the simple statistics.

Cyclical unemployment

Also known as deficient-demand unemployment, occurs when there is not enough aggregate demand in the economy to provide jobs for everyone who wants to work. Demand for most goods and services falls, less production is needed and consequently fewer workers are needed, wages are sticky and do not fall to meet the equilibrium level, and mass unemployment results. Its name is derived from the frequent shifts in the business cycle although unemployment can also be persistent as occurred during the Great Depression of the 1930s. With cyclical unemployment, the number of unemployed workers exceeds the number of job vacancies, so that even if full employment were attained and all open jobs were filled, some workers would still remain unemployed. Some associate cyclical unemployment with frictional unemployment because the factors that cause the friction are partially caused by cyclical variables. For example, a surprise decrease in the money supply may shock rational economic factors and suddenly inhibit aggregate demand.

Classical economists reject the conception of cyclical unemployment and alternative

Occurs when a labor market is unable to provide jobs for everyone who wants one because there is a mismatch between the skills of the unemployed workers and the skills needed for the available jobs. Structural unemployment is hard to separate empirically from frictional unemployment, except to say that it lasts longer. As with frictional unemployment, simple demand-side stimulus will not work to easily abolish this type of unemployment.

Classical economists reject the conception of cyclical unemployment and alternatively

Suggest that the invisible hand of free markets will respond quickly to unemployment and underutilization of resources by a fall in wages followed by a rise in employment. Similarly, Hayek and others from the Austrian school of economics argue that if governments intervene through monetary policy to lower interest rates this will exacerbate unemployment by preventing the market from responding effectively.

Keynesian economists

Human capital in Thailand

Thailand's labor force was estimated at 36.9 million in 2007. About 49% were employed in agriculture, 37% in services, and 14% in industry. In 2005 women constituted 48 percent of the labor force and held an increasing share of professional jobs. The labor force in 2001 totaled some 33.4 million (compared with 21.7 million in 1981 and 15.1 million in 1967).

In 1996, about 50% were engaged in agriculture and related occupations, 20% in industry, and 30% in services.

In 2001, unemployment amounted to 3.9% of the economically active population. Because of persisting government opposition to unions, organized labor was not a major factor in Thai life prior to the 1970s.

II. International background

1. Developed countries

High standard of living

Developed industrial background

Human development index (HDI) is high.

High income

High GDP per capita

FDI strong flow

Poverty rate is low

Japan‘s Background Poor natural resources

(except timber and seafood)

Overcrowded population

The majority of fuel

must be import

Economy is destroyed

during the war

• Economy recovered rapidly

1945-1954

• Highly developed 1955-1973

• Slowdown growth

• Finance, industry and science -technology ranked second (only after the United States).

• The balance of trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves on the top

• Financial institutions (leading the world).

1974-now

2. Developing countries

Low standard of living

Underdeveloped industrial background

(HDI) isn’t high

High population growth rate.

The unemployed and underemployed high and increasing.

Mainly on agriculture production and export base product.

Dominance, dependence, and weakness of the international relations…

Indonesia’s Background

Situated in the South- East Asia

Spectacular economic

growth in 2011 was 6.5%,

6.3% in 2012.

Having rich mineral resources

Import oil, export natural

gas and coal.

Export agricultural products

rubber, palm oil (leading world)

cocoa (third world)

From now to 2050,

the average growth: 4.35%.

=> Being ranked 16th.

III. Economic development

planning and management

3.1Definition of planning

Planning is the first function of the four functions of management are planning, organizing, leading and testing. Planning is a very important function for each manager because it is associated with the selection of goals and plans in the future and helped managers determine the remaining functions to ensure achieve security objectives.

If the standing on the decision: "Planning is a particular kind of decision to determine a specific future that managers desire for their organizations." Management has four basic functions are planning, organizing, leading and testing. Planning is like starting from the roots of a large oak, and from there sprang up the "branch" organization, leadership and inspection. At this point, the plan is functional and vital beginning for each manager.

3.2 Role of planning and

management Plan is one tool that plays an important role in

coordinating the efforts of the members of a business. Planning for this goal and how to achieved business goals.

Plan works to reduce volatility of the business, or organization. Instability and change of environment for planning becomes indispensable and essential for every business, every manager.

Plan to reduce duplication and waste activities of the enterprise resources. When planning, the target has been identified, the best method to achieve objectives should choose to use resources efficiently, minimizing the cost of the initiative because it is in the effective and appropriate.

Plan will establish standards to facilitate the inspection of high efficiency. A business or organization without a plan is like a piece of wood floating on the river of time.

IV.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

ANALYZING AND EVALUATION

Contents

Part I: Introduction

Part II: Main Content

Part III: Conclusion

6.4 Economic development analyzing and

evaluation

I, GDP


evaluation

Indonesia:

Expects real GDP growth to accelerate from

6.2 percent in 2012 to 6.5 percent this

year, and 6.8 percent in 2014

Malaysia:

Being one of ASEAN’s strongest domestically

driven economies, Malaysia is likely to enjoy

sustained investment growth in 2013

Myanmar:

Expects foreign direct investment (FDI)

inflows to be a key driver of growth in

2013 and beyond, with further

diversification of investment from the

energy sector to the manufacturing,

tourism, agricultural, and banking sectors

Philippines:

2013 is likely to be another year of

domestically driven growth for the

Philippines

Singapore:

Singapore’s growth outlook for 2013

remains subdued

Thailand:

In a 2013 GDP growth rate of 4 percent.

Vietnam:

Vietnam has approved a master plan to

boost the economy, focusing on

restructuring the banking sector and state-

owned enterprises during the 2013-2020

period


evaluation

Inflation

- Definition: the rate at which the general level of prices

for goods and services is

rising, and, subsequently, purchasing power is falling.

Country 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Vietnam 4 -0.6 -0.3 3.9 3.1 9.5 8.3 7.5 8.3 24.4 7 11.8

Philippines 6.8 5 6 3.1 3.1 5.5 7.6 6.2 2.8 9.3 3.2 3.8

Malaysia 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.9 1.1 1.3 3 3.8 4.3 5.4 0.6 1.7

Cambodia 4.5 2.2 1.6 3.3 1.7 3.1 5.8 5 5.9 19.7 -0.7 4.1

Thailand 2.4 2.1 1.6 0.6 1.8 2.8 4.5 5.1 2.2 5.5 -0.9 3.3

http://www.indexmundi.com/philippines/inflation_rate_(consumer_prices).html

http://www.indexmundi.com/malaysia/inflation_rate_(consumer_prices).html

http://www.indexmundi.com/cambodia/inflation_rate_(consumer_prices).html

http://www.indexmundi.com/thailand/inflation_rate_(consumer_prices).html


evaluation

UNEMPLOYMENT

Definition:

Unemployment is defined as a situation

where someone of working age is not able to

get a job but would like to be in full time

employment.


evaluation

Types of Unemployment

Demand Deficient Unemployment.

Structural Unemployment.

Real Wage Unemployment.


Voluntary Unemployment.


evaluation

Demand Deficient Unemployment.

Demand deficient unemployment occurs in a

recession or period of very low growth


evaluation

Structural Unemployment

Due to inefficiencies in the labour market.

It may occur due to a mismatch of skills

or geographical location.


evaluation

Real Wage Unemployment


evaluation


This occurs when workers are in between

jobs

Voluntary Unemployment.

This occurs when workers choose not to

take a job at the going wage rate


evaluation

Vietnam

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

rate of unemployment

rate of unemployment

V.

PUBLIC POLICIES FOR PLANNING

AND MANAGEMENT OF ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT.

6.5 PUBLIC POLICIES FOR PLANNING AND

MANAGEMENT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Fiscal policy

Definition: is the means by which a

government adjusts its levels of spending

in order to monitor and influence a

nation's economy.



Balancing Act:

Economy has slowed down…

˃˃ G˃overnment:decreasing taxation, giving consumers more spending money….

When The Economy Needs To Be Curbed…

˃˃ G˃overnment can use fiscal policy to increase taxes



Who Does Fiscal Policy Affect?

Conclusion: One of the biggest obstacles

facing policymakers is deciding how

much involvement the government should

have in the economy



Expansion fiscal policy

Expansionary fiscal policy involves

government attempts to increase aggregate

demand. It will involve higher government

spending and / or lower tax. In

theory, higher government spending will

increase aggregate demand (AD=C+I+G+X-

M) and lead to higher economic growth.



Expansionary Fiscal Policy



Leading to higher levels of consumer

spending.

Leading to inflation because of the higher

demand in the economy.

leading to an increase in the size of a

government’s budget deficit.



Evaluation of Expansionary Fiscal Policy

The impact of expansionary fiscal policy:

- What else is happening in the economy?

- Does crowding out occur?

- State of the economy

- Lower income tax may increase incentive to work

- Higher government spending on education and training



Contractionary fiscal policy

Definition: is a government policy of reducing

spending and raising taxes.

Government Purchases

Taxes



When contractionary fiscal policy is used:

Inflation: Inflation is an increase in the

nominal price of items over time

˃˃ G˃overnment will often use

contractionary fiscal policy to slow an

expanding economy to reduce the chances

of inflation.



Economic Bubbles

An economic speculatory bubble will

emerge. Prices of stock and other assets in

bubble industries are overstated and unstable

and, when the bubble collapses, the

economy can suffer a significant setback.

When the government fears economic

bubbles, it may implement contractionary

fiscal policies.



Monetary policy:

Definition: The actions of a central

bank, currency board or other regulatory

committee that determine the size and rate

of growth of the money supply, which in

turn affects interest rates

How to combine fiscal and monetary

policies in some country and experiment

for Vietnam.

China:

- Period 1: (1979 – 1991)

- Period 2: (1991 until now)

Objectives of monetary policy:

Economic growth

Exchange stability

Price stability

Full employment

Credit control

Reduction in equality and wealth

Creation and expansion of financial institution



India:

Japan:



Experiment for Vietnam

◦ Build up agency which includes

representative of Ministry of finance, treasury

and central bank. To make link to share

information, objective and method of activities

of each other’s.

◦ Using combination policy bases on real

situation in nation and internation in specific

period.



Experiment for Vietnam

◦ To establish supply system

information, realize expectation policies

clearly

◦ determining financial and monetary

objectives, ensuring consistent combination

and performing to get objectives.

◦ when using fiscal and monetary policies, need

to consider combination with others

policies, specially method which control

macro carefully

Technology

Powerpoint đông nam á 1