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A "How-to-do a Technology Forecast using simple and advanced methods within the Systematic Innovation Toolbox. This presentation was done in the Winter term of 2009 to Masters and Phd students of Portland State University's Engineering Management Program
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Technology Forecasting Using TRIZ Methods and Tools
Portland State University
Engineering Management of Technology Winter ’09
Richard PlattOwner – PrincipalThe Strategy + Innovation Group LLC
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Presenter BioCurrent Position: (09/06 – Present)
Owner of The Strategy + Innovation Group LLCPrevious Positions (Intel): (‘95 intern, 04/97 – 09/06)
Senior Instructor for Innovation Methods and Innovation/ TRIZ Program Manager
– Recruited and trained 13 instructors + >850 Engineers, PM’s, Technology Developers and R&D personnel
Quality and Reliability Engineer (EID)Technology Development Program Manager in:
1. ATTD2. Components Research3. Server Architecture LabManufacturing Engineer (ESG) Customer Program Manager (OPSD - intern)1 Intel Manufacturing Excellence Award5 Divisional Recognition Awards2 Patents and multiple defensive publicationsRefer to LinkedIn page for further discussions
Certifications: Innovation Master® , TRIZ Expert (+240 hours training, and testing), Lean and a Greenbelt in 6 Sigma
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Where:
*This formula (in more simplified form) proposed first by Boris Goldovsky in 1974.
I = the degree of idealityF = a function delivered of a positive effectP = negative effect, expensesi = a number of variable Fj = a number of variable P
Law of Ideality Equation
∞
∞
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Higher Level Functionality
=Higher Value
BenefitsCosts
Improved performance
Lower expendituresFewer harmful effects
Simple Formula for Value
Business Goal:Generate a profit while delivering unrivaled customer value
Confidential
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The Law of Ideality in Action
1/1,000,000 the size; 1/10,000,000 the weight1/1,000,000 the cost10,000,000 X the performance and reliability
Functionality Functionality and and
performance performance increases increases
at at lower costslower costs
Source: Intel
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Benefits
Costs
Increasing Value
Benefits
Costs
Conventional way TRIZ way
Innovation can be risky and expensive, it typically involves a random search for solutions (trial-and-error).
These solutions are often costly mistakes providing a time advantage to competitors.
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Infancy Rapid growth Maturity
Decline
Ben
efit-
to-c
ost
Time
Technology Innovation: S-curve
Make it work
Maximize efficiency
Minimize cost
Prove idea
Next-generation
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Moore’s Law & the Law of IdealityS-Curves are located at every process change & successive generation (all the way to 300mm wafers, from 1.0u to 0.8u, and so on)
MIPSMIPS
Pentium® ProProcessor
Pentium® IIProcessor
Pentium® IIIProcessor
Pentium® 4Processor
Intel386TM DX Microprocessor
Intel486TM DX CPU Microprocessor
1
10
100
1000
10000
1985 1989 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
MIPS
$/MIPS$/MIPS
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
$/MIPS
Silicon Technology
1.5µ
1.0µ0.8µ
0.6µ
0.4µ0.25µ
0.18µ0.13µ
Pentium®
Processor
Source: Intel
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The Main postulate of TRIZ • Evolution of successful technologies is governed
by certain laws.• This means that the transition…
…is predetermined.
Technology A
Technology B
Technology C
These are verified laws, tools and trends of engineering system evolution, not opinion, & have been validated as statistically significant
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An Example of a Law of Evolution
Stage of evolution A
Stage of evolution B
Stage of evolution C
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Typical System vs. Consumer Trend
ProductBased
Economy
ServiceBased
Economy
ExperienceBased
Economy
CommodityBased
Economy
TransformationBased
Economy
Current System
1 2 3 4 5
Competitive Pressure moves this way
Evolution of a Break-Through/Next Generation System move this way
Confidential
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General Principles of an Evolutionary Trend
INCREASING BENEFITS
INCREASING TECHNICAL CHALLENGE, RISK, etc
(TIME)
Immobile Single Joint Multiple Joint Liquid Gas FieldCompletelyflexible
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• There are Universal Principles & Trends of Evolution leading toward the “peak value”
– Can be used to predict “next big thing”
• Best innovations resolve conflicts (compromise-free)
• There are Universal Principles for resolving conflicts
Key Concepts
Integrated System Level Solution: Embedded Silicon
within Rigid Core with Heat-pipe Technology
By Richard Platt(Former) Technology Development Program Manager Server Board &
System Technology
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Why the Need for this Concept (1999)?Inventor’s Comment: Intel has many researchers,
engineers & Intel Fellows working on evolving the technologies for the silicon device and component level. However I did not see the same amount and level of investment of R&D resources being allocated at the board or system level.
– This is especially of concern to the inventor since coming to understand TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) that evolving the technology in the super-system direction is just as an important technology vector to pursue as the sub-system level (where the primary focus is occurring within Intel today[1999]).
This concept is one of many potential concepts that attempts to address evolvement of the technology to the super-system. (Hopefully to block our competitors from potentially outmaneuvering Intel in the marketplace.)
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Technology Trends Driving the Market (1999)
#1 TREND: The Increasing # of I/O in IA; according to Moore’s Law* states that # of transistors doubles on silicon devices every 18-24 months.
– This trend is driving the need for a enabling technologies to be developed for the individual device, (i.e. wafer level), as well as at the component level, board level and system levels to address the scaling challenges.
– INVENTIVE SOLUTION NEEDED TO ADDRESS: • Increasing complexity & decrease in size vs. Thermal management
and Manufacturability – [(I): Device Complexity vs. (W): Use of energy by stationary Object].– And/Or combinations– [(I): Area of Stationary Object vs. (W): Object Generated Harmful Factors].
‘Moore’s Law’ correlates to the ‘Law of Ideality’ in TRIZ; Law of Ideality = All engineering systems, evolve over time, providing greater performance, functionality and benefit at lower cost and have less detrimental aspects as a part of their design and manufacture.
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Technology Trends Driving the Market (1999)
#2 TREND: With the increase in the # of I/O in IA; there are greater demands for more power for supporting the devices, especially in the Server and Desktop product spaces (inventor’s background), as well as in the mobile and networking product spaces.– INVENTIVE SOLUTION NEEDED TO ADDRESS:
• Increase in speed vs. Increased need to dissipate thermal energy– [(I): Speed vs. (W): Temperature]
• Increase in thermal energy dissipation vs. small volumetric area. – [(I): Use of energy by a Stationary Object vs. (W): Area of Stationary Object]
#3 TREND: With the increase in the # of I/O in IA; the pitch of I/O balls both from die-to-package and package-to-board is shrinking– INVENTIVE SOLUTION NEEDED TO ADDRESS:
• Decrease in size vs. Manufacturability– [(I): Area of Stationary Object vs. (W): Manufacturing Precision or Ease of
Manufacture]. – [(I): Quantity of a substance vs. (W): Ease of Manufacture or Manufacturing
Precision]
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Silicon Device (Processor)
Thermal conductive Adhesive/Grease
Rigid Core– Al ?
Cu thermal transfer plate
Conductive Adhesive
MLB: Multi-Layer Board
Silicon Device (Processor)
Silver filled Resin or Epoxy
Embedded Thermal Heat-pipe
Silicon device
Double-Sided Silicon Devices-In-Board (DSSDIB) – Embedded processors
(current component designs using gold bumps or gold wire) in Imprinted Circuit Boards w/ rigid cores.
µ-Via (4-6mil buried & blind)
Bump contact pads
Intel Patent Holder: Richard PlattTechnology Development
Intel Program Manager
Std Via (10mil drill/ 13mil fin)
Standard trace for routing on outer layer
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Double-Sided Silicon Devices-In-Board (DSSDIB)1. The processor is embedded w/in the PCB through the machining/molding process of
the rigid core and then imprinting the underside of the multi layer substrate to create a routing cavity.
2. Silver filled epoxy is used on the top side of the component between the rigid core material lining, (likely nickel plated copper for the lining due to thermal transfer capabilities and aluminum for the rigid core).
3. The bottom of the imprinted cavity with the trace connections and the metal contact pads come in contact with the gold bumps of the silicon device is coated with a electrically conductive adhesive.
3. The heat-pipe running through the rigid core, essentially acts as a radiator close to the processor thermally heat-sinking the thermal energy into the liquid w/in the heat-pipe. Then through osmotic process of the thermal heat-pipe itself it transfers the heated liquid/gas to an external cooling source, (i.e. fan) that vents the thermal energy out of the system. This technology is already in use on laptops today.
4. This approach integrates all those technologies together along w/ the rigid core which provides additional rigidity and strength to already heavy and dense PCBs. The rigid core acts as stabilizer.
5. Traces (I/O), can then route out on the same layer as where the ball pads connect, and then using μ-vias the design engineer can then route to the primary side, (top surface), of the PCB.
6. Instead of needing the package to manage the environment, now the PCB can be the protective package around the silicon.
7. Cost savings are significant w/ integrating the silicon directly into the substrate &/or the rigid core.
8. The rigid core is coated w/ a non-conductive film to prevent electrical shorts.9. Opportunity to do side access fiber optics integrated into silicon and edge of substrate.
(not shown).
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Rigid Core2 Plates A & B > Aligned with Pins > R.C. Through Holes Drilled or molded
> Heat Pipe Cavity > Retainer Rails > Silicon Device Cavity
Through Holes Drilled intoRigid Core
Alignment Pins
Silicon Cavity
Heat Pipe Cavity
Note: NOT TO SCALE -- R.C. Thickness TBDCutaway Drawing Set—Not a manufacturing Flow!
Retainer Rails
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Embedded ComponentsCu Thermal Plate > Silver Epoxy > Silicon Device
Silicon Device(Gold Bumped)
Cu Thermal
Silver Epoxy
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High Density Interconnect Printed Circuit Board (HDI PCB)
PCB Constructed > PCB mounted to respective half of Rigid Core via alignmentPins and PCB registration holes Note: Surface Mount Components Only (includes I/O Connectors)
Bare HDI Foil PCB mounts toRigid Core
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Final AssemblyAll Components are S.M.T. > Heat Pipe & Condenser > Side A/B Joined
S.M. I/O Connectors
Side A/B Join(Registration Apparatus TBD)
S.M. Connectors w/Attachment into R.C.
Heat Pipe / Condenser Assembled into core
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Final Assembled UnitEnhanced electrical performanceEfficient thermal solutionIncreased reliabilityLow ProfileLowest Total Cost product
Total Solution space = 70% Mfg & Assy process technologies + 30% product technology
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Risk Assessment of Technology EffortTechnology Evaluation
Criteria Metric Multiplier Ranking Notes / Comments
Ease of Manufacturability
Specialty Manufacturing Process Yes = 1; No = 10 1 1
need to bring in New Processes, such as HDI-PCB capability, rigid core technology w/ integrated heat pipes, all SMT solutions for connectors would need to be developed. (I have new IP I am generating for that.)
Materials stage: lab, prototype, development or production?
lab = 1, prototype = 3, development = 5, production = 7 1 1
would need to develop a prototype line 1st in house to get the capability up and determine what the costs and issues would be to develop into a HVM line.
Is material specialty or commodity? specialty = 5, commodity =
10 1 10
HDI is standard technology readily available today. Aluminum rigid core can be done outside --outsourced in the short term.
Practical (least amount of effort for gain achieved)
Comaparitive against one project versus another. Multiplier of other metrics w/in the technology evaluation criteria 1 1
Do not personnaly know of any other approach that attempts a higher level of integration with the exception of Sun and IBM as comparitive systems
known vendor - sole supplierVendor known yes = 10, no = 5. Sole supplier = 5, multiple suppliers = 10 1 10
Grohmann Engineering
licensing or legal issues
Intel IP Y = 10; N = 1. Have to x-license from someone else = 5 Ability to x-license to others = 10 1 20
IDF's already submitted last year
cost POR cost = 5, more than POR cost = 1, less than POR cost = 10 1 10
Total system cost would be lower and enables a more efficient thermal x-fer mechanism than what is used today. No need to entertain refrigeration as a solution
availability of engineering know-how (internal /external / none availale) internal = 10, external = 5,
none available = 0 1 5
Grohmann Engineering, Fraunhofer Insititute and others have seen this and believe that it is a viable approach with the manufacturing capabilities that exist today.
integration w/ VFY = 10, No = 5 1 10
This would have to be a path pursued for a FOF model
R&D resources available (internal/external/none available)
internal = 10, external = 5, none available = 0 1 0
Extremely controversial approach, and requires an new perspective on architecture and business model
Is it disruptive technology? (Will this provide signifcant competitive advantage/compelling value add to feature set)
Characteristics of Disruptive Technology are: simpler, cheaper & lower perfoming. Yes = 1; No = 0, Generally promise lower margins, not higher profits. Yes = 1; No = 0, Intel's main customer's can't use the technology and don't want it Yes = 1; No = 0, 5 X 5 25
IDF submitted Yes = 10; No = 1 1 10
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Technology Evaluation Criteria Metric Multiplier Ranking Notes / Comments
Unit Cost Impact
No cost benefit to BOM, process, test, silicon or platform costs = 1 Potential cost reduction to BOM, process, test, silicon or platform costs = 5 Clear cost benefit to BOM, process, test, silicon or platform costs = 10 1 10
Implication to Business Model
Technology dramtically changes the way Intel does business or introduces more business risk = 1 Manageable risks and changes to business model = 5 Technology leverage or improves business model or represetns low / mitigateable business risk =10 1 1
Return on Investment
Technology does not demonstrate a return on investment = 1 Technology demonstrates a potential return on investment = 5 Technology demonstrates a clear return on investment = 10
Unknown. Would need a full in depth finance analyst to investigate this. No resources currently allocated to support
Reasonable business risk
Yes = 10; No = 1 1 10
Yes, since you would develop this in-house and only select one of your customersw to work with on this to develop the prototypes to prove out the business model and the technology. Business model now moves to entire PCB being delivered to OEM, end-user,
Applicability
Technology is limited to 1 or 2 products and/or market segments = 1 ; Technology can be applied across market segments but is limited to either cpu or non cpu.= 5 Technology can be applied across market segments and cpu and non cpu.= 10 1 10
Scaleability
Technology is limited to 1 generation = 1 ; Technology can be applied across multiple generations but limited segments = 5 ; Technology can be applied across multiple generations and segments = 10 1 10
I/P control
Intel has very little control of I/P = 1 Intel will share technology I/P with supplier = 5 Intel owns I/P = 10 1 10
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Technology maturity/ Time to development
Technology will take 3 to 5 years to develop = 1 Technology will take 2 to 4 years to develop = 5 Technology will take 1 to 3 years to develop = 10 1 1
Potential benefit
Technology will have limited benefit and is really an extension of existing technology =1 Technology will provide performance or cost benefit = 5 Technology will provide performance and cost benefit = 10 1 10
Risk
Technology may have significant reliable issues. Will require significant effort and >4 years develop = 1 Technology may have some reliable issues. Will require moderate effort and 2 to 4 years to develop = 5 Technology may has no apparent reliable 1 1
52
Technology Evaluation Criteria Metric Multiplier Ranking Notes / Comments
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Now doing it Faster
Using a software tool can speed up the process, instead of hours or days, now you can do it in minutes
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Backward Citations View Patent Details Patent Forward
Citations View Patent Details
5793611Cooling device with thermally separated electronic parts on a monolithic substrate
6292366 7294529 Method for embedding a component in a base
5355942 Cooling multi-chip modules using embedded heat pipes
Printed circuit board with embedded
integrated circuit
7286359 Use of thermally conductive vias to extract heat from microelectronic chips and method of manufacturing
5306866 Module for electronic package 7176382 Electrical circuit board and method for making the same
5199165Heat pipe-electrical interconnect integration method for chip modules
7165321 Method for manufacturing printed wiring board with embedded electric device
4774630Apparatus for mounting a semiconductor chip and making electrical connections thereto
6991966 Method for embedding a component in a base and forming a contact
4739443 Thermally conductive module 6788537 Heat pipe circuit board
4734315 Low power circuitry components6680441 Printed wiring board with embedded electric
device and method for manufacturing printed wiring board with embedded electric device
4631636High density packaging technique for electronic systems
6490159 Electrical circuit board and method for making the same
4327399 Heat pipe cooling arrangement for integrated circuit chips
(Quick) Patent Strength Analysis
Original Patent
12 more patents reference this patent
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Evolutionary Potential
0 1 2 3 4 5X
Customer Expectation
Repeat for other trends…
Dynamisation
Dimensionality
etc
Used by Permission DL Mann
“Blue” area (trend potential), can be used to suggest R&D and TD direction as well as a focused brainstorming tool on current problems, instead of opinion based decision making.
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Evolutionary Potential….
…can be performed
- for a specific system- for a component within a system
- for a process-
for a whole company- for an industry
Used by Permission DL Mann
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Sub System A
System
Evolutionary Potential Hierarchy
Sub System B Sub System C Sub System D etc
X
Y
Used by Permission DL Mann
Blue plot area is the potential, unexplored and undefined, opportunity to exploit and evolve the system to the next TRUE Evolutionary / Revolutionary step.
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Evolutionary Plot For PC (Laptop):
Confidential
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012345
1
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5
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10
012345
1
2
3
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5
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8
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10
Twin Focus of Business Trends:
Internal Organization External Market
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Current Business Model Maturity
Customer Expectation
Customer Purchase FocusProcess Thinking
System Robustness
MBP(Sim)
MBP(Var)
MBP(IncDiff)
Segmentation
Sense Interaction
TransparencyBoundary Breakdown
Controllability
Needs Hierarchy
Human Involvement
Interaction
Listening
Market Research
DynamizationVertical/Horizontal
Benchmarking the MasterFoods business model against best businesspractice from a consumer-facing perspective:
MasterFoods
Iams
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Competitor’s Our Product or Service Our Competitive AdvantageProduct or Service
+
“Global Benchmarking”
Analysis can also can be conducted along the lines of the Evolution of Business, IT & Software best practices
Used by Permission DL Mann
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Examples: Business Evolutionary Trends
Demographics Findographics Psychographics Autopoeisis
Trial and Error Process Mapping Multiple Processes Process of Processes
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Overall Motel
Front Desk House-KeepingBack OfficeGuest Services
Hierarchical Breakdown:
Used by Permission DL Mann
Evolutionary Plots of the business, technology, processes, products and services creates an Innovation Roadmap for the Business Unit
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Infancy Rapid growth Maturity
Decline
Ben
efit-
to-c
ost
Time
Technology Innovation: S-curve
Make it work
Maximize efficiency
Minimize cost
Prove idea
Next-generation
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Special Case: System Revival
Possible reasons:• New technology/material emerging• New situation
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Example: History of Armor
Defense effectiveness
Time
Police Anti-riot Attire
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Example: History of the Shield
Defense effectiveness
Time
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Example: Sailing ShipsEffectiveness (distance,
speed, capacity)
Time
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1st Stage of the S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations
Indicators
New system, not yet on market.Components from other systems, rather than custom components.Integrates with supersystem elements. The new system must change or adapt to the supersystem.Consumes resources not intended for it.Number and magnitude of system modifications increase and then decrease almost to zero (like Darwin's Law – only the strongest systems win).System integrates with leading alternative systems.
RecommendationsOne should work with existing infrastructure and resources.It makes sense to integrate the ES with systems that are leading at the moment.Main efforts should be concentrated on identifying and eliminating bottlenecks that prevent the system from entering the market.A forecast for supersystem development is required for systems that are in the 1st stage of evolution.Profound changes in system composition and in composition of its components (up to switching to another principle of operation) are admissible. It makes sense to develop the system with the intention of using it in one specific field - where the ratio of its advantages and disadvantages is the most acceptable.It is necessary to analyze physical and supersystem limitations of development with the aim of finding out the degree of promise of an ES.
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2nd Stage of S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations
IndicatorsHas not reached its development limits.There are a number of potential niches.Spreads to many areas.Differentiation among different system types grows.Uses existing supporting systems.Linear relationship between improvements made and resources required.Differences between system generations increases, then decreases almost to zero.System begins to consume resources customized for it.
RecommendationsIt makes sense to solve problems by adapting the system to new fields of application.It is possible to focus on compromises and solutions aimed at limiting disadvantages, without eliminating them entirely.It is possible to utilize specially adapted resources of the supersystem.Moderate-degree changes should be introduced to the system design and the design of system components (without changing their principles of operation).
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3rd Stage of S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations
IndicatorsHas reached some development limits.Development is limited by contradictions.Is used in many areas.Combines with alternative systems.Acquires new functions not correlated with the main function.A number of systems exist to support the system.Improving functionality requires a disproportionate amount of resources.System generations differ mainly by design and service functions.
RecommendationsFor the near and moderately distant future, one should be solving problems aimed at reducing costs, developing service sub-systems, and improving design.For the distant future, one should try to switch to another principle of operation for the ES or its components, which resolves contradictions hindering further development (overcoming limits).Deep trimming, integration of alternative systems, and other techniques of transition to the supersystem are highly effective.
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4th Stage of S-Curve: Indicators and Recommendations
Indicators
Forced out by more effective systems, which reach the 2nd stage of evolution.Supersystem changes reduce the need for the system.Supersystem changes make the existence of the system difficult – for example, resources needed by the system disappear. Continues to function only in highly specialized fields.Profitability decreases.Moves into the category of souvenirs, decorative objects, antiques, and so on. Begins to be used for entertainment; moves to the category of toys. Moves to the category of sports apparatus.
Recommendations
For the near future, one should be solving problems aimed at reducing costs, developing service sub- systems, and improve design.For the moderately distant future, one should look for fields in which the system would still remain competitive.For the distant future, one should try to switch to another principle of operation (for the ES or its components) which resolves contradictions hindering further development (limits overcoming).Deep trimming, integration of alternative systems, and other techniques of transition to the supersystem are highly effective.
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Resources for StudentsSystematic Innovation Website: If you tell them that I sent you, you
can get a 5% discounthttp://www.systematic-innovation.com/Products/products01.htm
- All Rights Reserved -- The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 49
Resources for StudentsSystematic Innovation Website: If you tell them that I sent you, you
can get 5% discounthttp://www.systematic-innovation.com/Products/products01.htm
- All Rights Reserved -- The Strategy + Innovation Group LLC - 50
Resources for StudentsSystematic Innovation Website: If you tell them I sent you, you can get
a 5% off the pricehttp://www.systematic-innovation.com/Products/products01.htm