Phosphorus scenario analyses in the

EU-27 food system

Present and future P flows and dynamics

Kimo van Dijk MSc, Wageningen University

2nd Scientific European Phosphorus Workshop,

Wageningen, 6 February 2013

Introduction

Phosphorus (P) is essential and non-renewable at human time

scale

EU has almost no mineral P sources and dependents on import

Transition towards sustainable use of P is necessary:

● Higher P use efficiency & more/better recycling

● 4R principle is usefull:

• Reduce the inputs

• Reuse organic P rich materials

• Recycle wastes

• Redefine and redesign

Objectives & research questions

To develop a dynamic model for the analysis of the effects of changes in drivers and nutrient management strategies on P dynamics in the food chain.

What would be the P dynamics & food production in EU-27 in case of a stop of P import via

● Q1: mineral fertilizers?

● Q2: mineral fertilizers and animal feed?

Q3: What are effects of best management practices (BMPs) on food production and P use efficiency?

Dynamic Food System model

Mass balance principle

Miterra-Europe model

EU-27 at country level,

timesteps of a year

Entire food system

P imports, exports, losses

and internal flows

Flows described

dynamically as function of

sector input

Crop P uptake as function

of soil P stock and P

application

Dynamic crop P uptake

Dynamic crop P uptake

Mitscherlich yield response curve: Puptake= [a – b * exp (-c* Papplication)] * d

Crop P Yield Response Types (1=high, 5=low response)

CPYRT Crop types

CPYRT 1 Vegetables, cut flowers, tree nurseries

CPYRT 2 Potatoes, maize

CPYRT 3 Sugar beet

CPYRT 4 Oil crops, other root crops, legumes, summer cereals, bulb flowers

CPYRT 5 Cereals, grassland, fruit tree, citrus trees, olive trees

EU-27 P flow analyses & data

Different sources:

Miterra-Europe, CAPRI,

FAOSTAT, Eurostat,

reports, articles and

experts

P flow = physical flow x

P content

‘Top down’ data

integration VS ‘bottom

up’

Assumptions were

necessary

P flows in the EU-27 food system for 2005 in Gg P/year, showing the imports (I) , exports (E),

losses of and internal upward/downward flows between sectors (indicated with square

blocks), the width of the arrows representing the magnitude of the flow.

Scenarios & BMPs

The scenarios are:

● BAU: present (~2005), Business as Usual

● S1: future, no P import via fertilizer, BAU

● S2: future, no P import via fertilizer & feed, BAU

● S3: future, no P import via fertilizer, BMPs

● S4: future, no P import via fertilizer & feed, BMPs

The Best Management Practices (BMPs) are:

● BMP-1: 25 % lower P losses in each sector

● BMP-2: 75 % higher crop P use efficiency

No changes in other drivers and factors, such as population, agricultural area, crop types etc.

Per ha EU-27 crop P uptake per scenario

for 2005-2300

Changes in soil P stock per scenario for

2005-2300

Total P import, export, losses and balance

per scenario in 2050

Per capita food production & processing P

flows per scenario in 2050

Total P in food available per capita per

Member State per scenario in 2050

Changes in total P in food per capita in EU-

27 per scenario for 2005-2300

Changes in dry matter crop yield in EU-27

per scenario for 2005-2300

Conclusions

The EU-27 is heavily dependent on the import of P via mineral

fertilizer (70%), animal feed (20%) and food products.

Soil P is an important stock to take into account in P dynamics,

because of its buffering capacity and large size (~150.000 Gg P)

A stop on P fertilizer import has a large effect on food production,

mainly on the longer term

A stop on P import via fertilizer and animal feed makes the effect

even more pronounced, causing a larger and earlier drop in food

production

The effects can be mitigated by the implementation of best

management practices in nutrient management

Additional data is necessary, especially for downscaling to the

regional level

Thank you for

your attention

Do you have questions, comments or data? Email: kimo.vandijk@wur.nl