HSCB Pathways Program

Defining a Frameworkfor Navigating Socio-Cultural Topology

19 September 2010

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MG Flynn, USA, J2 ISAF; “Fixing Intel” - Jan 2010

“Our operators must find better ways to answer fundamental questions about the environment in which we

operate and the people we are trying to protect and persuade.”

Socio-Cultural Topology

• There are a lot of factors to be considered in understanding the S-C domain…

• … if you were to map them out, it would create an “n-Dimensional” space.

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S-C Topologies show the relationship among a sub-set of dimensions for a problem of interest

Socio-Culture DimensionsInclude:

- Geospatial & Temporal- Entities, e.g.

- People (individuals)- Groups- Institutions

- Events- Economics & Security- Resources (& movement)- Attitudes, Values & Influences,

and trends

Data Driven Methods

Socio-CulturalTopology

Socio-Cultural Data

What is the Status?

Modeling Challenges:1. Develop Models for the defining S-C topology

Defining a Socio-Cultural Topology –For any problem, an analyst starts by asking some key questions:

• What are the key S-C Dimensions for this problem?• How do they relate to each other?• How do they change?• If this changes… what else changes (2nd & 3rd order effects)?

4Data driven models help define a S-C Topology

Hypothesis Driven Methods

Models for forward base

Models for humanitarian response

Models for Division HQ to determining tipping points

Socio-CulturalTopology

What if this occurred; or action was taken?

Modeling Challenges:1. Develop Models for the Mapping S-C topology2. Develop Models for Navigating the topology3. Develop Models for forecasting plausible futures

Navigating a Socio-Cultural Topology

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Hypothesis driven models help understand alternative “pathways” for Navigating the S-C Topology

Develop a Hybrid Modeling Engine for Navigating Socio-Cultural Topology.

Pathways Technical Objective

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BAA 09-Q-4590 Requirements

•2531 – HSCB Hybrid-Modeling Decision Support Framework•2532 – HSCB Dataset Meta-Data Repository and Management System•2533 – HSCB Data Translation and Brokering System•2534 – HSCB Modeling Visualization Framework

Pathways Program

•Hybrid Modeling Engines: •Modeling Team 1: Lockheed Martin ATL / Lockheed Martin ISGS - “Nexus”•Modeling Team 2: BAE / BBN – “Prism”

•Visualization Framework:•Oculus – “Aperture”

Transition •Transitionable collection of Services for Programs of Record•Concept of operations for Hybrid Modeling•Set of Demonstrated “Shrink-Wrap” Solutions

Pathways Way-Ahead

Interactive Visualization tools

Brigade & Above Strategic Influence for

Sudan, Congo & Horn of Africa

Model- and Data-DrivenApplications

New Generation Modeling System

Technology Base for Model andInformation System Development

1. Select Exemplars that Span Diverse Applications

2. Identify Hybrid Models that should Address the Exemplars

3. Develop New Modeling Integration Framework joining Data- and Model-driven uses

Battalion & BelowStability Operations for

Provincial ReconstructionTeam in Afghanistan

Tools and Techniquesfor Non-obvious

relationships

4. Integration of point solutions when & where appropriate

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SA/OA

SA/OA SA

/OA

Pathways framework technologies and processes will deliver Hybrid-Modeling Engines

for navigating Socio-Cultural Topology to Command Decision-Makers

Pathways Program OverviewPhase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 TransitionEstablish Static Framework & Baseline Capability

Dynamic Model & Data Selection

Demonstrate Data Discovery & Model Selection for Operational Decision Support

Mission Specific Operational& Transition Demos

Deploy & Sustainment

Focus: • Integrate models &

data into framework• Define & Implement

S-C Meta-Model • Define operational

decision support requirements for users

Focus: • Integrate models on

demand• Demonstrate use of

theoretically derived S-C meta-models

• Code & manage data in multiple security enclaves

• Decision support for model selection & composition

Focus: •End-to-end Capability•Analyst & Planners able to take command challenge problem & offer valid, model-based solutions that support command decision-making.

•Demonstrated utility & internal validation of S-C models at meta-model level

Focus: •Prepare for Transition•Documentation & Training

•POR Integration • In-Theater Operational use testing & Utility assessment

Focus: •Tools sustained via Programs Of Record

Metrics:• Demonstrate

repository mapping of Open Source Data

• Define S-C Auto-Tagging of structured data

• Baseline models show theoretically derived dependencies interaction

• Demo Model integration using fixed data & models

Metrics:• 200% reduction in

time for trend analysis• 82% Meta-Data

Coding Accuracy• Dynamically Map new

data source into frame work <8 Person-Hours.

• Planner able to compose models to address requirement <8 Person-Hours

Metrics:• Automatic detection of significant

changes in S-C Topology.• Models optimized and support

assessment of COA < 8 Person-Hours.

• “Shrink Wrap” solutions for 3 mission areas

• 92% Coding Accuracy• Automatic anomaly detection from

open source data• System guided drill down into model

pedigree & data for Analyst SA & Command decision-maker OA.

Metrics:• Models adapted for

use as tools to support 3 operational missions at 2 different echelons

• Able to exploit live data in theater < 6 Hours

6 Mo. 8 Mo. 18 Months 12 Months 16Months

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Pathways: Evidence of SuccessFrom: To:

Interactive VisualizationStatic views with no visibility into inner workings

Hybrid Modeling EngineSupporting “mash-up” with data & tailoring on demand

One-off solutions with hard-wired models & data

End-to-End SystemSeparate Model Components

User Composeable - Scaleable Framework

Custom, brittle, implementations

Hybrid Modeling for Navigating the Socio-Cultural Topology

Combine Empirical and Theory Driven Approaches

Arbitrary technical approaches guiding tool development

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Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office, (CTTSO)Human Social, Culture & Behavior Modeling Program (HSCB)

Questions?

HSCB Pathways ProgramDefining a Navigation Framework

for Socio-Cultural Topology

Jeffrey G. Morrison, Ph.D Shana Yakobi

morrisonj@tswg.gov yakobis@tswg.gov

703.604.0339 703.604.1691