Our G-enealogy

Our G-enealogy

Brough TurnerFounder & CTO

Ashtonbrooke.com

[email protected]

http://blogs.broughturner.com

2

Our G-enealogy

• Brief history of cellular wireless telephony

– Radio technology: TDMA, CDMA, OFDMA

– Mobile core network architectures

• Demographics & market trends today

– 3.5G, WiMAX, LTE & 4G migration paths

• Implications for the next 2-5 years

How the history of cellular technology helps us

understand 4G technology and business models

and their likely impact on wireless broadband

3

Our G-enealogy

• Brief history of cellular wireless telephony

– Radio technology: TDMA, CDMA, OFDMA

– Mobile core network architectures

• Demographics & market trends today

– 3.5G, WiMAX, LTE & 4G migration paths

• Implications for the next 2-5 years

How the history of cellular technology helps us

understand 4G technology and business models

and their likely impact on wireless broadband

Google

“3G Tutorial”

“4G Tutorial”

4

Outrageous ideas

• 5 GHz spectrum better than 700 MHz

• 2020: LTE* >80%; WiMAX* <15%– * i.e. LTE family of networks vs WiMAX evolution

• Should ask: Wi-Fi vs LTE + WiMAX– e.g. user owned versus service provider owned

• Value of TV white spaces: Secondary access

• Open 3 GHz – 10 GHz to all– License exempt on secondary access basis

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Source: ITU World ICT Indicators, June 2008

Mobiles overtake fixed

6

Mobile Generations

G Summary Data Rates

1 Analog Typical 2.4 Kbps; max 22 Kbps

2 Digital – TDMA, CDMA 9.6 - 14.4 Kbps (circuit data)

2.5GPRS – mux packets invoice timeslots

15 - 40 Kbps

3Improved modulation,using CDMA variants

50 – 144 Kbps (1xRTT);200 – 384 Kbps (UMTS);500 Kbps – 2.4 Mbps (EVDO)

3.5 More modulation tweaks2–14 Mbps (HSPA), then 28 Mbps& 42/84 Mbps future evolution

4New modulation (OFDMA); Multi-path (MIMO); All IP

LTE: potentially >100 Mbps with adequate spectrum (20 MHz)

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Enormous technology change

8


but

commercial issues trump technology

9


but


and

legal-regulatory trumps all

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Origins of Wireless Communications

• 1864: James Clark Maxwell– Predicts existence of radio waves

• 1886: Heinrich Rudolph Hertz– Demonstrates radio waves

• 1895-1901: Guglielmo Marconi– Demonstrates wireless communications over

increasing distances

• Also in the 1890s– Nikola Tesla, Alexander Stepanovich Popov,

Jagdish Chandra Bose and others, demonstrate forms of wireless communications

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Origins of Wireless Communications

• 1864: James Clark Maxwell– Predicts existence of radio waves

• 1886: Heinrich Rudolph Hertz– Demonstrates radio waves

• 1895-1901: Guglielmo Marconi– Demonstrates wireless communications over

increasing distances

• Also in the 1890s– Nikola Tesla, Alexander Stepanovich Popov,

Jagdish Chandra Bose and others, demonstrate forms of wireless communications

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First Mobile Radio Telephone, 1924

Courtesy of Rich Howard

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Cellular Mobile Telephony

� Antenna diversity

� Cellular concept

● Bell Labs (1957 & 1960)

� Frequency reuse

● typically every 7 cells

� Handoff as caller moves

� Modified CO switch

● HLR, paging, handoffs

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● Bell Labs (1957 & 1960)

� Frequency reuse





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● Bell Labs (1957 & 1960)

� Frequency reuse





� Sectors improve reuse● every 3 cells possible

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First Generation (nearly all retired)

• Advanced Mobile Phone Service (AMPS)

– US trials 1978; deployed in Japan (’79) & US (’83)

– 800 MHz; two 20 MHz bands; TIA-553

• Nordic Mobile Telephony (NMT)

– Sweden, Norway, Demark & Finland

– Launched 1981

– 450 MHz; later at 900 MHz (NMT900)

• Total Access Communications System (TACS)

– British design; similar to AMPS; deployed 1985

17

2nd Generation – digital systems

• Leverage technology to increase capacity

– Speech compression; digital signal processing

• Utilize/extend “Intelligent Network” concepts

– Improve fraud prevention; Add new services

• Wide diversity of 2G systems

– IS-54/ IS-136 Digital AMPS; PDC (Japan)

– DECT and PHS; iDEN

– IS-95 CDMA (cdmaOne)

– GSM

18

2G “CDMA” (cdmaOne)

• Code Division Multiple Access

– all users share same frequency band

– discussed in detail later as CDMA is basis for 3G

• Qualcomm demo in 1989

– claimed improved capacity & simplified planning

• First deployment in Hong Kong late 1994

• Major success in Korea (1M subs by 1996)

• Adopted by Verizon and Sprint in US

• Easy migration to 3G (same modulation)

19

GSM – Global System for Mobile

• Originally “Groupe Spécial Mobile ”

– joint European effort beginning 1982

– Focus: seamless roaming all Europe

• Services launched 1991

– time division multiple access (8 users per 200KHz)

– 900 MHz band; later 1800 MHz; then 850/1900 MHz

• GSM – dominant world standard today

– well defined interfaces; many competitors; lowest cost to deploy

– network effect took hold in late 1990s

20

GSM Dominant Today

• GSM+3GSM used by 88% of subscribers worldwide

• Asia leads with 42% of all mobile subscriptions– AT&T and T-Mobile use GSM/3GSM in US today

Source: Wireless Intelligence / GSM Association

GSM Subscribers

21

GSM substantially enhanced

Widely deployed � significant payback for enhancements

• HSCSD - high speed circuit-switched data

• GPRS - general packet radio service

• Synchronization between cells

– Minimize interference; help fix mobile’s location

• AMR vocoder – increase capacity (& fidelity)

• Frequency hopping (to overcome fading)

• Discontinuous transmission (more calls/ cell)

• Cell overlays with reuse partioning

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1G, 2G, 3G Multi-Access Technologies

Courtesy of Petri Possi, UMTS World

23

1G, 2G, 3G Multi-Access Technologies

Courtesy of Petri Possi, UMTS World

4G and future wireless systems optimize acombination of frequency, time and codinge.g. OFDMA & SC-FDMA (discussed later)

24

2G & 3G – Code Division Multiple Access

• Spread spectrum modulation

– originally developed for the military

– resists jamming and many kinds of interference

– coded modulation hidden from those w/o the code

• All users share same (large) block of spectrum

– one for one frequency reuse

– soft handoffs possible

• All 3G radio standards based on CDMA

– CDMA2000, W-CDMA and TD-SCDMA

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Courtesy of Suresh Goyal & Rich Howard

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The 3G Vision

• Universal global roaming

– Sought 1 standard (not 7), (but got 3:3GSM, CDMA 2000 & TD-SCDMA)

• Increased data rates

• Multimedia (voice, data & video)

• Increased capacity (more spectrally efficient)

• Data-centric architecture (ATM at first, later IP)

30

The 3G Vision

• Universal global roaming

– Sought 1 standard (not 7), (but got 3:3GSM, CDMA 2000 & TD-SCDMA)

• Increased data rates

• Multimedia (voice, data & video)

• Increased capacity (more spectrally efficient)

• Data-centric architecture (ATM at first, later IP)

• But deployment took much longer than expected

– No killer data app; new spectrum costly; telecom bubble burst; much of the vision was vendor-driven

31

3G Radio technology today

• CDMA 2000 – Multi Carrier CDMA– Evolution of IS-95 CDMA; but now a dead end

• UMTS (W-CDMA, HSPA) – Direct Spread CDMA

– Defined by 3GPP

• TD-SCDMA – Time Division Synchronous CDMA

– Defined by Chinese Academy of Telecommunications Technology under the Ministry of Information Industry

32

3G Radio technology today

• CDMA 2000 – Multi Carrier CDMA– Evolution of IS-95 CDMA; but now a dead end

• UMTS (W-CDMA, HSPA) – Direct Spread CDMA

– Defined by 3GPP

• TD-SCDMA – Time Division Synchronous CDMA

– Defined by Chinese Academy of Telecommunications Technology under the Ministry of Information Industry

Paired spectrum bands

Single spectral band with time division duplexing

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Why CDMA 2000 lost out

• Had better migration story from 2G to 3G

– Evolution from original Qualcomm CDMA (IS-95)

– cdmaOne operators didn’t need additional spectrum

• Higher data rates than UMTS, at least at first

• Couldn’t compete with GSM’s critical mass

– Last straw when Verizon Wireless selected 3GPP’s Long Term Evolution (LTE) for their 4G network

– Verizon selection 11/07

– Qualcomm abandons further development 11/08

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Japan

USA

3GPP (3rd Generation Partnership Project)

• Partnership of 6 regional standards groups, which translate 3GPP specifications to regional standards

• Controls evolution of GSM, 3GSM (UMTS, WCDMA, HSPA) & LTE

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UMTS (3GSM) is market leader

• GSM evolution: W-CDMA, HSDPA, HSPA, +…

– leverages GSM’s dominant position

• Legally mandated in Europe and elsewhere

• Requires substantial new spectrum

– 5 MHz each way (symmetric) at a minimum

• Slow start (was behind CDMA 2000), but now the accepted leader

– Network effect built on GSM’s >80% market share

36

UMTS (3GSM) is market leader

• GSM evolution: W-CDMA, HSDPA, HSPA, +…

– leverages GSM’s dominant position

• Legally mandated in Europe and elsewhere

• Requires substantial new spectrum

– 5 MHz each way (symmetric) at a minimum

• Slow start (was behind CDMA 2000), but now the accepted leader

– Network effect built on GSM’s >80% market share

– Surely LTE will benefit in the same fashion…

37

TD-SCDMA (Time division synchronous CDMA)

• Chinese development

– IPR bargaining tool with West? Late to market, but big deployment plans

• Single spectral band

– unpaired spectrum; as little as 1.6 MHz; time division duplex (TDD) with high spectral efficiency; good match for asymmetrical traffic!

• Power amplifiers must be very linear

– relatively hard to meet specifications

38

China 3G

• Largest mobile market in world (630 M subs)

– Largest population in world (1.3 billion)

• Home-brew 3G standard: TD-SCDMA

– 3G licenses were delayed until TD-SCDMA worked

– 2008 trials: 10 cities, 15K BSs & 60K handsets

• 3G granted January 2009

– China Mobile: TD-SCDMA

– China Unicom: 3GSM (UMTS)

– China Telecom: CDMA 2000

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3G Adoption – DoCoMo Japan

2G: mova

3G: FOMA

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3G Adoption – DoCoMo Japan

Potential to

discontinue

2G services

in 2010 …

2G: mova

3G: FOMA

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3G Subscribers (2Q 2008)

• 18% on 3G; 82% on 2G; 0.01% on 1G

• EU & US 3G penetration approaching 30%

Source: comScore MobiLens

3-month averagesending June 2008

& June 2007

All mobile subscribersages 13+

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3G Subscribers (2Q 2008)

• 18% on 3G; 82% on 2G; 0.01% on 1G

• EU & US 3G penetration approaching 30%

• US penetration rate soaring

Source: comScore MobiLens

3-month averagesending June 2008

& June 2007

All mobile subscribersages 13+

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3G data-only subscribers

• Soaring adoption of 3G “USB Data Modems”

– 92% of all 3G data bytes in Finland in 2H07

• Informa on EU 3G devices, May 2008

– 101.5M 3G devices: 64 M handsets, 37M 3G data modems

• In-Stat/ ABI Research

– In-Stat: 5M cellular modems in 2006

– ABI Research 300% growth in 2007, i.e. 20M?

Enormous growth, from a relatively small base…

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Diverse Mobile Wireless Spectrum

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Wireless Migration

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Wirele

ss c

ap

acity

/ th

rough

put

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

First cell phones

AMPS

GSM

CDMA

WiWi--FiFi

WiMAXWiMAX

LTELTE

Increasing throughput a

nd capacityUMTS/HSPA2G2G

3G3G

4G4G

OFDM OFDM →→OFDMAOFDMA

MIMOMIMO

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Wirele

ss c

ap

acity

/ th

rough

put

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

First cell phones

AMPS

GSM

CDMA

WiWi--FiFi

WiMAXWiMAX

LTELTE

Increasing throughput a

nd capacityUMTS/HSPA2G2G

3G3G

4G4G

OFDM OFDM →→OFDMAOFDMA

MIMOMIMO

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ITU-T Framework

3GPP3GPP – WWAN (wireless wide area network)

IEEE 802.16IEEE 802.16 – WMAN (wireless metropolitan area network)

IEEE 802.11IEEE 802.11 – WLAN (wireless local area network)

ITUITU--TT – United Nations telecommunications standards

organization

Accepts detailed standards contributions from 3GPP, IEEE

and other groups

Pervasive connectivityPervasive connectivity

WLAN WLAN -- WMAN WMAN -- WWANWWAN

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ITU Mobile Telecommunications

• IMT-2000

– Global standard for third generation (3G) wireless

– Detailed specifications from 3GPP, 3GPP2, ETSI and others

• IMT-Advanced– New communications framework: deployment ~2010 to 2015

– Data rates to reach around 100 Mbps for high mobility and 1 Gbps for nomadic networks (i.e. WLANs)

– High mobility case via either or both evolved LTE & WiMAX

– 802.11ac and 802.11ad addressing the nomadic case

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LTE highlights

• Sophisticated multiple access schemes

– DL: OFDMA with Cyclic Prefix (CP)

– UL: Single Carrier FDMA (SC-FDMA) with CP

• Adaptive modulation and coding

– QPSK, 16QAM, and 64QAM

– 1/3 coding rate, two 8-state constituent encoders, and a contention-free internal interleaver

• Advanced MIMO spatial multiplexing

– (2 or 4) x (2 or 4) downlink and uplink

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4G Technology – OFDMA

• Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access

– Supercedes CDMA used in all 3G variants

• OFDMA = Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (OFDM) plus statistical multiplexing

– Optimization of time, frequency & code multiplexing

• OFDM already deployed in 802.11a & 802.11g

– Took Wi-Fi from 11 Mbps to 54 Mbps & beyond

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Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing

– Many closely-spaced sub-carriers, chosen to be orthogonal, thus eliminating inter-carrier interference

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Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing

– Many closely-spaced sub-carriers, chosen to be orthogonal, thus eliminating inter-carrier interference

– Varies bits per sub-carrier based on instantaneous received power

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Statistical Multiplexing (in OFDMA)

• Dynamically allocate user data to sub-carriers based on instantaneous data rates and varying sub-carrier capacities

• Highly efficient use of spectrum

• Robust against fading, e.g. for mobile operation

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FDMA vs. OFDMA

• OFDMA more frequency efficient

• Dynamically map traffic to frequencies based on their instantaneous throughput

FDMAFDMA

ChannelGuard band

OFDMAOFDMA

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4G Technology - MIMO

� Multiple Input Multiple Output smart antenna technology

� Multiple paths improve link reliability and increase spectral efficiency (bps per Hz), range and directionality

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Municipal Multipath Environment

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SDMA = Smart Antenna Technologies

• Beamforming– Use multiple-antennas to

spatially shape the beam

• Spatial Multiplexing a.k.a. Collaborative MIMO– Multiple streams transmitted

– Multi-antenna receivers separate the streams to achieve higher throughput

– On uplink, multiple single-antenna stations can transmit simultaneously

• Space-Time Codes– Transmit diversity such as

Alamouti code reduces fading

2x2 Collaborative MIMO give 2x peak data rate by transmitting two data streams

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4G Technology – SC-FDMA

• Single carrier multiple access

– Used for LTE uplinks

– Being considered for 802.16m uplink

• Similar structure and performance to OFDMA

– Single carrier modulation with DFT-spread orthogonal frequency multiplexing and FD equalization

• Lower Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR)

– Improves cell-edge performance

– Transmit efficiency conserves handset battery life

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Key Features of WiMAX and LTE

• OFDMA (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access)

• Users are allocated a slice in time and frequency

• Flexible, dynamic per user resource allocation

• Base station scheduler for uplink and downlink resource allocation– Resource allocation information conveyed on a frame‐by frame basis

• Support for TDD (time division duplex) and FDD (frequency division duplex)

DLUL

DL

UL

FDDPaired channels

TDD: single frequency channel for uplink and downlink

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3G/4G Comparison

Peak Data Rate (Mbps) Access time

(msec)

Downlink Uplink

HSPA (today) 14 Mbps 2 Mbps 50-250 msec

HSPA (Release 7) MIMO 2x2 28 Mbps 11.6 Mbps 50-250 msec

HSPA + (MIMO, 64QAM Downlink)

42 Mbps 11.6 Mbps 50-250 msec

WiMAX Release 1.0 TDD (2:1 UL/DL ratio), 10 MHz channel

40 Mbps 10 Mbps 40 msec

LTE (Release 8), 5+5 MHz channel

43.2 Mbps 21.6 Mbps 30 msec

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WiMAX vs. LTE

• Commonalities– IP-based

– OFDMA and MIMO

– Similar data rates and channel widths

• Differences– Carriers are able to set requirements for LTE

through organizations like NGMN and LSTI, but cannot do this as easily at the IEEE-based 802.16

– LTE backhaul is, at least partially, designed to support legacy services while WiMAX assumes greenfield deployments

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Commercial Issues

LTE

• Deployments likely slower than projected

But

• Eventual migration path for GSM/3GSM, i.e. for > 80% share

• Will be lowest cost & dominant in 2020

WiMAX

• 2-3 year lead, likely maintained for years

• Dedicated spectrum in many countries

But

• Likely < 15% share by 2020 & thus more costly

64

3G Partnership Project

Defines migration GSM to UMTS/ 3GSM to LTE

Release

Specs

complete

First

deployed Major new features defined

98 1998 Last purely 2G GSM release

99 1Q 2000 2003 W-CDMA air interface

4 2Q 2001 2004 Softswitching IP in core network

5 1Q 2002 2006 HSDPA & IP Multimedia System (IMS)

6 4Q 2004 2007 HSUPA, MBMS, GAN, PoC & WLAN integration

7 4Q 2007 future HSPA+, Better latency & QoS for VoIP

8 4Q 2008 future LTE, All-IP

W-CDMA – Wideband CDMA modulationHSxPA – High Speed (Download/Upload) Packet AccessMBMS – Multimedia Broadcast Multicast ServiceGAN – Generic Access NetworkPoC – Push-to-talk over CellularLTE – Long Term Evolution, a new air interface based on OFDM modulation

65

3G Partnership Project

Defines migration GSM to UMTS/ 3GSM to LTE

Release

Specs

complete

First

deployed Major new features defined

98 1998 Last purely 2G GSM release

99 1Q 2000 2003 W-CDMA air interface

4 2Q 2001 2004 Softswitching IP in core network

5 1Q 2002 2006 HSDPA & IP Multimedia System (IMS)

6 4Q 2004 2007 HSUPA, MBMS, GAN, PoC & WLAN integration

7 4Q 2007 future HSPA+, Better latency & QoS for VoIP

8 4Q 2008 future LTE, All-IP

W-CDMA – Wideband CDMA modulationHSxPA – High Speed (Download/Upload) Packet AccessMBMS – Multimedia Broadcast Multicast ServiceGAN – Generic Access NetworkPoC – Push-to-talk over CellularLTE – Long Term Evolution, a new air interface based on OFDM modulation

*

* Rush job?

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Core Network Architectures

• Two widely deployed architectures today

• 3GPP evolved from GSM-MAP– Used by GSM & 3GSM operators (88% of subs globally)

– “Mobile Application Part” defines signaling for mobility, authentication, etc.

• 3GPP2 evolved from ANSI-41 MAP

– ANSI-41 used with AMPS, TDMA & CDMA 2000

– GAIT (GSM ANSI Interoperability Team) allowed interoperation, i.e., roaming

• Evolving to common “all IP” vision based on 3GPP

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Typical 2G Mobile Architecture

BTS Base Transceiver Station

BSC Base Station Controller

MSC Mobile Switching Center

VLR Visitor Location Register

HLR Home Location Register

BTS

BSC

MSC/VLR

HLRBSC

GMSC

CO

BSC

BSCMSC/VLR

CO

PSTN

PLMN

CO

Tandem Tandem

SMS-SC

PSDN

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Separation of Signaling & Transport

• Like PSTN, 2G mobile networks have one network plane for voice circuits and another network plane for signaling

• Some elements reside only in the signaling plane

– HLR, VLR, SMS Center, …

Transport Plane (Voice)

Signaling Plane (SS7)MSC

HLR

VLRMSC

SMS-SC

MSC

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Signaling in Core Network

• Based on SS7

– ISUP and specific Application Parts

• GSM MAP and ANSI-41 services

– mobility, call-handling, O&M, authentication, supplementary services, SMS, …

• Location registers for mobility management

– HLR: home location register has permanent data

– VLR: visitor location register – local copy for roamers

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PSTN-to-Mobile Call

(STP)

(SCP)

PSTNPLMN

(SSP)(SSP)BSSMS

PLMN(Home)(Visitor)

(STP)

HLR

GMSC

(SSP)

VMSC

VLR

IAM

6

2

Where is the subscriber?

5

Routing Info

3Provide Roaming

4

SCP

1

IAM

514 581 ...

ISUP

MAP/ IS41 (over TCAP)

Signaling

over SS7

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GSM 2G Architecture

BSS Base Station System



MS Mobile Station

NSS Network Sub-System

MSC Mobile-service Switching Controller



AuC Authentication Server

GMSC Gateway MSC

GSM Global System for Mobile communication

SS7BTS

BSCMSC

VLR

HLRAuC

GMSC

BSS

PSTN

NSS

A

E

C

D

PSTNAbis

B

H

MS

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2.5G Architectural Detail

SS7BTS

BSCMSC

VLR

HLRAuC

GMSC

BSS

PSTN

NSS

A

E

C

D

PSTNAbis

B

H

MS









GMSC Gateway MSC

2G MS (voice only)

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2.5G Architectural Detail

SS7BTS

BSCMSC

VLR

HLRAuC

GMSC

BSS

PSTN

NSS

A

E

C

D

PSTNAbis

B

H

MS









GMSC Gateway MSC

SGSN Serving GPRS Support Node

GGSN Gateway GPRS Support Node

GPRS General Packet Radio Service

IP

2G+ MS (voice&data)

PSDNGi

SGSN

Gr

Gb

Gs

GGSN

Gc

Gn

2G MS (voice only)

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3G rel99 Architecture (UMTS)

SS7

IP

BTS

BSCMSC

VLR

HLRAuC

GMSC

BSS

SGSN GGSN

PSTN

PSDN

CN

CD

GcGr

Gn Gi

Abis

Gs

B

H




RNS Radio Network System

RNC Radio Network Controller

CN Core Network





GMSC Gateway MSC



AE PSTN

2G MS (voice only)

2G+ MS (voice & data)

UMTS Universal Mobile Telecommunication System

Gb

3G UE (voice & data)

Node B

RNC

RNS

Iub

IuCS

ATM

IuPS

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3G rel4 - Soft Switching

SS7

IP/ATM

BTS

BSCMSC Server

VLR

HLRAuC

GMSC server

BSS

SGSN GGSN

PSTN

PSDN

CN

CD

GcGr

Gn Gi

Gb

Abis

Gs

B

H




RNS Radio Network System

RNC Radio Network Controller

CN Core Network





GMSC Gateway MSC



ANc

2G MS (voice only)


Node B

RNC

RNS

Iub

IuCS

IuPS


Mc

CS-MGW

CS-MGWNb

PSTNMc

ATM

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3GPP rel5 ― IP Multimedia

Gb/IuPS

A/IuCS

SS7

IP/ATM

BTS

BSCMSC Server

VLR

HSSAuC

GMSC server

BSS

SGSN GGSN

PSTN

CN

CD

GcGr

Gn Gi

Abis

Gs

B

H

IM IP Multimedia sub-system

MRF Media Resource Function

CSCF Call State Control Function

MGCF Media Gateway Control Function (Mc=H248,Mg=SIP)

IM-MGW IP Multimedia-MGW

Nc

2G MS (voice only)


Node B

RNC

RNS

Iub


Mc

CS-MGW

CS-MGWNb

PSTNMc

IuCS

IuPS

ATM

IM

IPPSTN

Mc

MGCF

IM-MGW

MRF

CSCF

Mg

Gs

IP Network

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3GPP2 Defines IS-41 Evolution

• 3rd Generation Partnership Project “Two”– Evolution of IS-41 to “all IP” more direct (skips ATM

stage), but not any faster

– Goal of ultimate merger (3GPP + 3GPP2) remains

• 1xRTT – IP packets (like GPRS)

• 1xEVDO – Evolution data-optimized

• 1xEVDV – abandoned

• 3x – Triples radio data rates

• Universal Mobile Broadband (UMB) –abandoned

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NextGen Networks (NGN) Converging

� 3GPP2 — CDMA2000 multi-media domain (MMD) based on 3GPP IMS R5

� TISPAN — evolves NGN architecture for fixed networks based on 3GPP IMS

� ITU-T NGN Focus Group — venue to make TISPAN NGN a global spec

� ATIS NGN Focus Group — formally collaborating with ETSI as of April 2005

� PacketCable Release 2.0 — aligning with portions of 3GPP

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

3GPP Release 4

3GPP IMS R5

3GPP IMS R6

TISPAN R1

3GPP2 MMD

ITU-T NGN FG

ATIS NGN FG

Packet Cable 2.0

3GPP IMS R7

Following 3GPP lead

79

3GPP R7 / TISPAN IMS

80

IMS / NGN Vision

• One core network for “any access”

– Based on IP, using IETF standards, with extensions

– Wireline and wireless transparency

• Access and bandwidth will be commodities; services are the differentiator

– Per-session control supports per-application quality of service (QoS) and per-application billing

• Voice is just application

– “Easily” integrated with other applications…

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IMS Story: Convergence

Source: Team Analysis, Lucent

Traditional Services

TV Caller ID Phone Tools Push to Talk

WirelinePacket Cable

Wireless WifiWiMax

OSS/ B

SS

AccessDelivery

MediaFunctions

Subscriber Data

Application

OSS/ B

SS

AccessDelivery

MediaFunctions

Subscriber Data

Application

OSS/ B

SS

AccessDelivery

MediaFunctions

Subscriber Data

Application

IMS Services

Subscriber Data

Media Functions

IP Multimedia SubsystemIP Multimedia Subsystem

OSS/ B

SS

ApplicationApplication

Phone Tools Push to Talk

WirelinePacket Cable

Wireless WifiWiMax

Application

TV Caller ID

82

IMS / NGN Value Proposition

• Generate new revenue from new services

– Per-session control allows IMS to guarantee QoSfor each IP session, and enables differential billing for applications & content

• Reduce capital spending

– Converge all services on common infrastructure

– Focus limited resources on core competencies

• To date, mobile operators have had no incentive to deploy IMS for voice services

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LTE and IMS

• LTE is an all-IP network

– Not compatible with legacy voice services

– Assumes the use of IP Multimedia System (IMS)

• Initial LTE networks will be data only

• Initial LTE handsets will be multi-modal, supporting HSPA and earlier systems for voice telephony

• VOLGA Forum working on a fix

– Voice over LTE via Generic Access

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Long Term Parallels: IN & IMS

Intelligent Network

• Free operators from equipment provider lock-in

• Separate applications from basic call control

• Open protocols and APIs for applications

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Long Term Parallels: IN & IMS

Intelligent Network

• Free operators from equipment provider lock-in

• Separate applications from basic call control

• Open protocols and APIs for applications

Intelligent Network Application Successes

• FreePhone, Mobile (HLR), Pre-paid, Voice mail, …

• 15 year summary:A few applications, very widely deployed

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LTE’s System Architecture Evolution (SAE)

Diagram by Huawei

RAN (Radio access network)SGSN (Serving GPRS Support Node)PCRF (policy and charging function) HSS (Home Subscriber Server)MME (Mobility Management Entity)SAE (System Architecture Evolution)

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Mobile Service Revenues

• > $800 billion in 2007, growing 6%-7% per year

– > $1 trillion by 2012

• Voice services dominate: 81%

• SMS services: 9.5% ; All other non-voice services: 9.5%

Source: Portio Research

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Images courtesy of Jon Stern

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Mobile Services Futures

• Affordable open mobile Internet access coming

– Five competing 3.5G operators in US by 2010

– Smart phone penetration soaring

• Operators’ control of handset software slipping

– iPhone and Android application stores, initiatives for Symbian, WinMobile, Adobe AIR, etc.

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The Internet is the killer platform

• Mobile Internet access driving 3G data usage

• Future business models an open question

• Slides from yesterday’s Mobile Broadband discussion, are available

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but


and

legal-regulatory trumps all

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Outrageous ideas

• 5 GHz spectrum better than 700 MHz

• 2020: LTE* >80%; WiMAX* <15%

– * i.e. LTE family of networks vs WiMAX evolution

• Should ask: Wi-Fi vs LTE + WiMAX

• Value of TV white spaces: Secondary access

• Open 3 GHz – 10 GHz to all

– License exempt on secondary access basis

Thank you !

Brough [email protected]

http://blogs.broughturner.com

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The content organized here includes material contributions from:

• Fanny Mlinarsky, octoScope

• Marc Orange, Interphase (formerly w/ NMS Communications)

• Murtaza Amiji, Tellme (A Microsoft Subsidiary)

• Samuel S. May, Price Waterhouse Coopers

– Formerly with US Bancorp Piper Jaffray

• Charles Cooper, dLR

and many others, as noted on specific slides