Operator plans for the ultra-dense network

C A R O L I N E G A B R I E L

R E S E A R C H D I R E C T O R

M A R A V E D I S - R E T H I N K

A P R I L 3 2 0 1 4

© Maravedis-Rethink 2014

Operator plans for the ultra-dense network

Agenda

© Rethink Technology Research 2014

The drivers for densification

More antennas or more base stations?

Macro layer – Massive MIMO

Small cell developments

Hyper-dense networks – pros and cons

Operator plans

Methodology

Top 40 cellcogroups

Number and profile of cell sites

Data requirements,

location, business model, spectrum,

regulatory

Cell sites required to be added or

upgraded

Equipment and software deployed 2013-2018 + capex

Demand driven forecastPrimary and secondary data + modelling for each operatorAdditional detailed survey Vendor input on shipments and expectationsForecasts by region, technology, equipment type, mode, spectrum etc

Drivers for density


Massive increase in data traffic

Limited ability to cope with traditional models Spectral efficiency

Higher bandwidth

Combined with cost pressures

Critical to reduce radiated power – battery life, not coverage, limits usage

Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$b

n

Capacity investments Data revenues

Many tools are needed


New technology % required capacity

increase Y1

% required TCO

decrease Y1

% required capacity

increase Y4

% required TCO

decrease Y4

LTE upgrade 17% 14% 4% 4%

Wi-Fi offload 16% 20% 9% 13%

Public access small cells 14% 18% 24% 23%

Deconstructed RAN (RRH

and distributed antennas)

11% 17% 13% 17%

New or refarmed spectrum

and carrier aggregation

17% 9% 16% 12%

SuperMacro/LTE-A eg

MIMO, CoMP

14% 10% 18% 15%

Adaptive networking/SON 11% 12% 16% 16%

Densification: two layers

Massive MIMO

Large antenna arrays

Advanced beamforming for coverage and mobility

Extend performance and life of macro BTS

Array gain + little interference

Small Cells

Low power, low cost highly localized access points

Capacity and coverage, less mobility

Higher cell density smaller path losses

6

More antennas or more cells?


MIMO antenna deploymentsSource: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

un

its

MIMO Small cells

OR

?

Macro layer trends


One architecture is not enough – MIMO and small cells need each other

Distributed architectures Virtualization

C-RAN Phantom Cell

SuperMacro Massive MIMO+ CA 3D beamforming CoMP

Macro layer densifies too, and works with small cell layer eICIC MSA

Some operators are ‘macro-first’, but many advances look forward to multilayer

Enter the HetSNet


0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

un

its

C-RAN Distributed RAN Traditional Super Macro Small cells

Small cell and C-RAN macrocell growthSource: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

More cells in all layers


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Same x2 x4 x10

% o

f r

es

po

nd

en

ts

Macro Small MIMO

Increase in sites and antennasSource: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

Towards hyper-density


Separate layer of small cells Spectral/spatial reuse Capacity/coverage Location awareness Wi-Fi integration

Higher power first? How dense?

Qualcomm Nascar

Known benefits – but do they scale?

Scaling challenges Cost Backhaul Planning burden Interference

New flexibility required

Enablers of density

Maravedis-Rethink 2014

Next gen SON True plug and play

Next gen interference management, eICIC

Flexible cells Dynamic coordination pCell Cognitive radio Ad hoc viral networks Opportunistic cells

Multiflow Indoor out, 4G homespots WiFi and WiGig Partners eg utilities

Harnessing new spectrum


Importance of TDD

Asymmetry

Channel reciprocity

Underused

High bands – MIMO and small cells

Wi-Fi, WiGig

LTE-U?

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

un

its

TDD FDD

LTE small cell metrocell growthSource: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

Barriers


Diminishing returns?

Chaotic capacity

Network becomes ‘unplanned’ at one end, massive management challenges at the other Viral not optimal

Plug and play vs fully flexible

Fewer cells under operator control eghomespots

BSS/OSS/analytics

Traditional concerns Cost factors

Backhaul

Scalability

Devices

Operator priorities

Maravedis-Rethink 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Super Macro

Metrocells

Integrated WiFi

Virtualized core

Simple' LTE

Premier network priority (% of respondents)Source: Maravedis Rethink RAN Services

The holistic network


Increase in cells at all layers

Integration with C-RAN, DAS etc

Interworking

Towards HetSNetand the holistic network

‘5G’?

The HetNet evolves. Source: ASOCS

Questions?

© Rethink Technology Research 2011

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