OLED Encapsulation Markets

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Markets for OLED Encapsulation Materials—2011

Nano-421

Published October 2011

© NanoMarkets, LC NanoMarkets, LC PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058 Tel: 804-360-2967 Web: www.nanomarkets.net

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Entire contents copyright NanoMarkets, LC. The information contained in this report is based on the best information available to us, but accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. NanoMarkets, LC and its author(s) shall not stand liable for possible errors of fact or judgment. The information in this report is for the exclusive use of representative purchasing companies and may be used only by personnel at the purchasing site per sales agreement terms. Reproduction in whole or in any part is prohibited, except with the express written permission of NanoMarkets, LC.

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary: Markets for OLED Encapsulation Technologies ..................................... 1

E.1 Available Opportunities in OLED Encapsulation ........................................................... 1

E.1.1 Opportunities for Encapsulation in OLED Lighting .................................................................................... 2

E.1.2 Opportunities for Encapsulation in OLED Displays ................................................................................... 3

E.1.3 What About Flexible OLED Encapsulation? ............................................................................................... 4

E.2 Firms to Watch in the OLED Encapsulation Sector ....................................................... 5

E.3 Investment Opportunities in the OLED Encapsulation Business ................................... 8

E.4 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Encapsulation Technologies 2011-2018 ... 10

Chapter One: Introduction to OLED Encapsulation Technologies ........................................ 15

1.1 Background to This Report: Where Are the Opportunities for OLED Encapsulation Materials?...................................................................................................................... 15

1.1.1 Preamble ................................................................................................................................................. 15

1.1.2 Finally, A Growing Market for OLEDs Emerges ...................................................................................... 15

1.1.3 OLED Encapsulation Strategies ............................................................................................................... 17

1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report .......................................................................... 20

1.3 Methodology of this Report ...................................................................................... 20

1.4 Plan of this Report .................................................................................................... 21

Chapter Two: OLED Encapsulation Technologies................................................................ 22

2.1 Conventional Encapsulation Materials ...................................................................... 22

2.1.1 Cover Glass Technologies ........................................................................................................................ 23

2.1.2 Multilayer Barrier Films for OLED Encapsulation .................................................................................... 24

2.1.3 Overview of Selected Suppliers of Multilayer Encapsulation Technologies ........................................... 26

2.1.4 Vapor-Deposited Conformal Coatings .................................................................................................... 31

2.1.5 Metal Encapsulation ............................................................................................................................... 32

2.2 Flexible Encapsulation Coatings ................................................................................ 33

2.2.1 Flexible Dyad Films On Plastic Substrates ............................................................................................... 34

2.2.2 Flexible Glass ........................................................................................................................................... 35

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2.3 Key Points Made in this Chapter ............................................................................... 36

Chapter Three: Applications for OLED Encapsulation Technologies .................................... 38

3.1 Likely Opportunities for Encapsulation Technologies by Application Type ................. 38

3.1.1 Small, Rigid Displays ................................................................................................................................ 39

3.1.2 OLED Lighting .......................................................................................................................................... 41

3.1.3 OLED TV Displays—Are They Finally Becoming a Reality? ...................................................................... 43

3.1.4 Flexible Displays—When Will They Become a Factor? ........................................................................... 45

3.2 What Kinds of Advancements in Performance—and in Performance Validation—are Needed? ........................................................................................................................ 46

3.3 The OLED Encapsulation Supply Chain ...................................................................... 48

3.4 Key Points Made in This Chapter ............................................................................... 52

Chapter Four: Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Encapsulation Materials ............................... 55

4.1 Forecasting Methodology ......................................................................................... 55

4.1.1 Scope of the Forecast.............................................................................................................................. 56

4.1.2 Pricing Assumptions ................................................................................................................................ 59

4.2 Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Encapsulation Technologies by Type of OLED Application ...................................................................................................................................... 61

4.2.1 Small, Rigid Displays ................................................................................................................................ 61

4.2.2 Encapsulation in OLED TV Displays ......................................................................................................... 63

4.2.3 OLED Lighting Encapsulation................................................................................................................... 66

4.2.4 Encapsulation of Flexible OLEDs ............................................................................................................. 69

4.3 Eight-Year Forecasts by Encapsulation Technology .................................................... 75

4.4 Summary of OLED Encapsulation Eight Year Market Forecasts .................................. 83

4.5 Alternative Scenarios ................................................................................................ 88

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used in This Report ........................................................... 90

About the Author ........................................................................................................... 91

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List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1: Summary of Total Market Value of OLED Encapsulation by OLED Application, 2011-2018 ................. 12

Exhibit 4-1: OLED Shipments by Application, 2011-2018 (OLED Panel Area, Millions sq m) .................................... 57

Exhibit 4-2: Estimated Average Prices of Different Encapsulation Technologies, 2011 – 2018 ($ per sq m) .......... 60

Exhibit 4-3: Encapsulation of Small, Rigid Displays for Mobile Devices and Other Miscellaneous Applications ..... 62

Exhibit 4-4: Encapsulation of OLED TV Displays by Encapsulation Technology, 2011-2018 .................................... 64

Exhibit 4-5: Encapsulation of OLED Lighting by Encapsulation Technology and By Application, 2011-2018 ........... 66

Exhibit 4-6: Encapsulation of Flexible Displays By Encapsulation Technology, 2011-2018 ...................................... 70

Exhibit 4-7: Encapsulation of Flexible OLED Lighting By Encapsulation Technology, 2011-2018 ............................ 71

Exhibit 4-8: Summary of Encapsulation of Flexible OLEDs By Encapsulation Technology and by Application ......... 73

Exhibit 4-9: Cover Glass Encapsulation by OLED Application, 2011-2018 ................................................................ 76

Exhibit 4-10: Metal Encapsulation (Rigid and Flexible) by OLED Application, 2011-2018 ....................................... 77

Exhibit 4-11: Dyad Film Encapsulation (Rigid and Flexible) by OLED Application, 2011-2018 ................................. 79

Exhibit 4-12: Directly-Deposited Multilayer Barrier Encapsulation (Flexible and Rigid) by OLED Application ......... 80

Exhibit 4-13: Flexible Glass Encapsulation by OLED Application, 2011-2018 ........................................................... 82

Exhibit 4-14: Summary of Total OLED Encapsulation Area by OLED Application, 2011-2018 (Millions sq m)......... 84

Exhibit 4-15: Summary of Total Market Value of OLED Encapsulation by OLED Application, 2011-2018 ............... 85

Exhibit 4-16: Summary of Total OLED Encapsulation Area by Technology, 2011-2018 (Millions sq m) ................... 87

Exhibit 4-17: Summary of Total Market Value of OLED Encapsulation by Technology, 2011-2018 ($ Millions) ..... 88

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Executive Summary: Markets for OLED Encapsulation Technologies

E.1 Available Opportunities in OLED Encapsulation

NanoMarkets projects that the value of the organic light emitting diode (OLED) encapsulation

market will grow from a relatively modest $7.4 million in 2011 to over $850 million by 2018.

Why do we expect so much growth? The OLED market has finally taken off after languishing

for many years without meeting its early expectations. Today, OLEDs have been

mainstreamed with the arrival of widely available smartphones with OLED displays. And since

this market is still quite small when one considers the overall size of the display market, there

is much room for growth.

There is little doubt that OLEDs are here to stay in small displays for smartphones and the like,

but the real question has been whether or not OLEDs will shift beyond these devices toward

larger display panels, specifically for OLED lighting and for television displays. We think the

answer is "yes," contingent upon performance improvements in OLED materials, and for the

purposes of this report, in OLED encapsulation technologies.

OLEDs are notoriously environmentally sensitive, so encapsulation barriers have always been

part of the manufacturing process. Encapsulation of OLEDs today remains heavily dominated

by relatively simple cover glass technologies that use getters to absorb water vapor and

oxygen and epoxies for edge sealing of the devices. But as noted, the OLED device market is

changing, and going forward these conventional strategies will not be sufficient for emerging

OLEDs, which are expected both to be larger-format and to have longer lifetime requirements.

Specifically, as the performance requirements for OLEDs with respect to lifetime are

increasing, new barrier strategies are needed, and thus there are now significant

opportunities for materials firms to make money selling more advanced, better performing

OLED encapsulation technologies.

Encapsulation is a core enabling technology for the larger-format OLEDs in both TV

displays and lighting that will be entering the market in the near- to mid-term. The

same is also true for flexible OLEDs, which are still further down the road, but

clearly cannot rely on conventional glass encapsulation.

In fact, better encapsulation is the key to achieving the lifetimes required of these

new, larger-format OLED panels and flexible OLEDs, and thus can unlock entire

market segments.

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We should note that there are plenty of technical hurdles still to be overcome, particularly

with respect to water vapor barrier performance and flexibility. And, even more importantly,

the days in which manufacturers were willing to pay high premiums for good encapsulation

strategies are long gone; OLEDs have now been around long enough that they are demanding

low-cost options for encapsulation.

Today, the average cost of encapsulation is too high to support sustained, long-term growth in

both the display and the lighting sectors. In both of these markets, competition is fierce, and

OLEDs have a long way to go to reach cost parity with the incumbent technologies, which are

liquid crystal displays (LCDs) in the display sector, and either fluorescent lights or light

emitting diodes (LEDs) in the lighting sector. To make way for the larger-format OLED panels,

the market must shift toward simpler, better, and less expensive technologies. And major

improvements in performance and manufacturing processes are needed to make this shift

realistic.

The bottom line is that there is plenty of room for suppliers to gain market share by offering

new and better barrier solutions. Not only will the number of OLED units grow significantly

over the next decade, the panels are going to get larger. An OLED TV or lighting panel has an

area that is many times the size of a mobile phone display. This growth in area is very good

news for encapsulation materials firms because it means that there is potential for volumes

large enough to support economies of scale, and to finally get materials costs in line with

expectations.

E.1.1 Opportunities for Encapsulation in OLED Lighting

In the nascent OLED lighting industry, the focus is on efficiency and reducing total cost of

ownership. Just as in other OLED markets, encapsulation is currently dominated by cover

glass/getter/epoxy schemes, which have proven sufficient, if not ideal, for making the rigid

lighting luminaires in production today.

However, the relatively early-stage nature of this market, combined with the knowledge that

high volume—and preferably roll-to-roll (R2R)—manufacturing will be necessary to compete

in the long-term, has meant that OLED panel manufacturers have been quite willing to explore

development of non-glass encapsulation technologies. For this reason, OLED encapsulation

suppliers can distinguish themselves by developing proprietary solutions that will give them

long-term competitive advantages.

In addition, encapsulation strategies that enable partial flexibility, or at least some measure of

bendability or conformability, may be of particular interest. For example, multilayer dyad

laminates that enable conformability may be useful for creating a competitive advantage and

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growing market share. On the other hand, small volume, niche OLED applications with

extremely high performance requirements and fewer cost pressures may preferentially adopt

conformally-deposited dyad layers, such as are possible using ALD methods.

E.1.2 Opportunities for Encapsulation in OLED Displays

NanoMarkets expects the value of the encapsulation market in displays to grow from about

$7.3 million today to over $120 million by 2018. This growth will come from increased sales of

both the small, rigid displays—mostly full-color, active matrix devices—found in various

mobile computing applications (smartphones, tablets, netbooks, etc.) that have already begun

to take off commercially, and of OLED TVs, which are expected to finally be on the market in

2012-2013 and become a significant factor within the next several of years.

Active-matrix OLED displays are largely being marketed in the consumer electronics space on

image quality and vibrancy of color. This approach raises the question of how encapsulation

materials makers can improve their products sufficiently to meaningfully help their customers

sell more OLED displays in both mobile computing and TVs. In NanoMarkets' opinion, this can

be done by developing proprietary encapsulation solutions that preserve the benefits of OLED

displays while keeping manufacturing costs minimized.

TV displays have much higher expectations for performance than small displays, especially

with respect to lifetime, which means that first and foremost the encapsulation barrier

performance must be improved to enable real growth. However, improvements in barrier

performance cannot be so expensive that they hinder OLEDs' ability to be cost competitive.

Cost competition from LCDs will be particularly fierce; the LCD sector has thus far been able to

overcome all of its competitors (plasma, especially), and OLED TVs will not be spared this

challenge.

As previously discussed, for most OLEDs commercialized over the next decade, the

encapsulation strategies of choice will continue to be based on glass because the performance

of glass is simply too far ahead of the others to expect anything else. However, we also firmly

believe that different types of glass encapsulation schemes will become important in different

OLED display sub-sectors.

There is, for example, no compelling reason to suggest that small, rigid displays like

those currently found in most smartphones will not continue to be dominated by

conventional cover glass, with opportunities for glass firms supplying improved

cover glass technologies to succeed.

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On the other hand, larger-format panels in applications where cost competition is

very fierce, such as in OLED TVs, may be better served by high

performance/reduced-cost glass options like lightweight, flexible glass.

In summary, despite the challenges, we believe that the opportunities are great in the OLED

encapsulation business for both displays and lighting, as long as one keeps in mind that the

early days of hype and promise have passed. Now, materials suppliers must be able to provide

real solutions that solve both lingering performance issues and the pervasive issue of the high

cost of most currently available encapsulation strategies.

It is one thing to supply materials to an industry whose end product is mostly a type of non-

critical OLED display that shows a clock or date on one side of a mobile phone, where

deterioration of that display is annoying but not catastrophic to the consumer. It is quite

another to supply materials to an industry whose goal is to produce large, high definition video

displays or attractively designed lighting that offers both high-efficiency and improved total

cost of ownership.

E.1.3 What About Flexible OLED Encapsulation?

It has long been the dream of the OLED industry to provide high quality, low cost, flexible

panels manufactured in a R2R process on plastic substrates. These OLEDs would offer a new

value proposition to customers through unique geometries and design possibilities. The

viability of flexible OLEDs built on (relatively) porous plastic substrates relies on the ability to

encapsulate them with adequate environmental barriers.

Yet the performance of flexible encapsulation is still very much unproven. Many prototypes

exist, but the ability to manufacture truly flexible displays on a large scale, with reasonable

manufacturing yields, remains elusive. Thus, flexible encapsulation of OLEDs is too far down

the road to be much of a factor in the OLED encapsulation market today.

NanoMarkets estimates that the flexible encapsulation market will grow from nonexistent

today to about $50 million in 2018. However, upon closer inspection we believe that most of

this growth will come from sales of partially flexible, or bendable displays, rather than from

truly flexible or crushable displays.

However, to achieve partial flexibility—let alone true flexibility—suppliers of encapsulation

materials still have much work to do. Flexible displays will never be possible without

improvements in flexible encapsulation, which is one of the key missing ingredients for

flexible displays today. Clearly, conventional glass/getter/epoxy will not suffice; something

else is needed.

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Thus, there is great potential for encapsulation firms to commercialize better flexible

encapsulation technologies based on, for example, flexible glass, multilayer dyad laminates,

and conformal coating technologies. But these firms should not necessarily aim too high at

this point: partial flexibility, if it can be delivered at low cost and with excellent barrier

performance, may be more than enough to enable growth of OLED lighting and TVs, and thus

grow sales for encapsulation suppliers.

E.2 Firms to Watch in the OLED Encapsulation Sector

The OLED Manufacturers: The firms that clearly have the most influence on which

encapsulation firms will succeed, and which will not, are the OLED panel manufacturers. In

other words, there is little doubt that de facto industry standards in OLED encapsulation will

be established largely by the big firms like Samsung (Korea), Sony (Japan), LG (Korea), and

Matsushita (Japan) on the display side and OSRAM (Germany), Philips (The Netherlands), and

GE (U.S.) on the lighting side.

Most of the big OLED panel makers are not traditional materials firms, so their influence on

the encapsulation market will come in the form of their selection of particular encapsulation

strategies and manufacturing processes. In addition, these firms are in the position of

becoming kingmakers by selecting encapsulation technology developers who then move from

marginality to significant size.

Of course, those manufacturers that have a stake in both markets are likely the most

important ones to watch. In this case, we are talking mainly about the giants—the

conglomerates like Samsung and GE, for example—that have both OLED manufacturing

interests and active encapsulation development programs.

Although they have not been heard from in a while and appear to be struggling

with meeting commercialization deadlines, GE is developing R2R plastic barrier

films in cooperation with DuPont (U.S.).

Samsung, which is the largest OLED manufacturer active today, effectively acquired

the barrier technologies of Vitex Systems (U.S.) in 2011, announced that it expects

to sell more than one billion OLED displays (for both mobile computing and TVs)

within the next five years, and has invested over $2 billion in a next-generation

plant set to come online in 2012.

The glass firms: NanoMarkets projects that for the timeframe of this report, glass-based

encapsulation will continue to dominate. For this reason, opportunities for glass firms will be

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abundant, especially for those that can provide significant improvements in getter/epoxy

configurations, reduce weight and cost and improve manufacturing processes.

The big glass firms like Nippon Electric Glass (Japan), Asahi Glass Company (Japan), Corning

(U.S.), and Schott (Germany) clearly have the advantage in this sector, although we believe

that DuPont—not a traditional glass company—is also one to watch. DuPont is promising a

lower-cost cover glass system that uses a printable getter to enable air-gap free

encapsulation, and if they can partner with the right OLED manufacturer, they could take

some market share from the others.

Flexible glass: The promise of flexible glass is that it could eliminate the need for flexible dyad

encapsulation layers, which have thus far proven insufficient to meet the encapsulation needs

of the OLED market. The idea here is that the benefits of glass—higher conversion efficiency,

heat tolerance, pinhole-free surfaces, and better barrier properties—might be preserved as

the glass is made thin enough to be reasonably flexible. Corning, NEG, AGC, and Schott all

have lines of thin, flexible glass products with an eye toward R2R processing.

Thus far, the focus of the glass companies with respect to flexible glass has been directed

toward the touch-screen and PV markets instead of OLEDs, and there is additional

development work required to get the performance of flexible glass where it needs to be for

flexible OLEDs. However, the possibilities are great:

Cost in glass manufacturing is directly related to the cost of the energy required to

melt the glass, so the material cost is proportional to the volume of glass produced.

Although first-generation flexible glass products are today very expensive, since

flexible glass aims to greatly reduce the thickness of glass used for OLED

encapsulation, the cost of flexible glass encapsulation has the potential to go much

lower than one might expect.

Although they are currently behind other glass companies, notably the major

Japanese firms, the deep expertise within Corning especially with respect to optical

glass fiber production and handling gives it an advantage in the effort to develop

flexible glass capable of meeting the needs of the OLED industry.

What is clear is that since plastic-based flexible encapsulation systems with high

barrier performance are still not commercially available at a large enough scale to

offer tangible cost benefits, flexible glass technologies may win out in the end. As

already noted, especially in OLED lighting applications, true flexibility is probably

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not really required, so simpler bendable displays with very long lifetimes enabled

by the use of glass may be just the thing that is needed.

The multilayer barrier firms: Despite the apparent lack of progress in multilayer dyads over

the last five years or so, their great promise for reducing costs has meant that many firms

have continued to pursue them. The firms to watch are those that are focusing on reducing

costs without sacrificing performance, such as by reducing the number of dyads (or layers)

required to hit the barrier performance targets of the OLED industry.

In addition to GE, which as noted above has apparently delayed launch of its OLED lighting

products manufactured using its own (flexible) multilayer barrier encapsulation, the key firms

to watch in this space are 3M (U.S.), Tera-Barrier Films (Singapore), and Universal Display

Corporation (UDC, U.S.).

3M is pursuing bendable OLED device encapsulation films suitable for R2R

manufacturing. Currently commercially available 3M films have insufficient barrier

performance for most OLEDs, but efforts are underway to supply better films for

small, rigid displays, where the replacement of glass with a plastic material would

bring great savings to customers via reduced thickness. The firm's focus on small,

simple, rigid displays instead of emerging displays is not particularly exciting, but

this market is clearly accessible, and 3M has existing supply channels into the

display market. This strategy focuses on the here and now; existing revenue

streams can be invested back into technology development so that 3M is ready to

serve the market when larger and/or flexible OLEDs materialize.

Tera-Barrier Films has also been developing multilayer dyad films with a

development focus on R2R barrier coatings for flexible displays. At this point in

time, Tera's films have not been scaled commercially, but the company reports that

it is working with partners and customers in both Asia and Europe and hopes to see

its films in commercial products within the next year. The key differentiator of

Tera's technology is that it can achieve high barrier performance with only a few

layers, which keeps the anticipated costs low. Of course, this performance is

currently achieved using slow-speed sputtering, and it remains to be seen whether

Tera can translate its small-scale, pilot successes into faster, larger-scale, truly low-

cost production, which it hopes to be able to do using electron-beam technology.

UDC announced in 2011 the development of its own barrier film that it describes as

a "single layer" hybrid organic/inorganic system suitable for both rigid and flexible

OLEDs. We note that this development, if proven, is significant, because a single

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layer system with adequate performance should go a long way toward reducing the

cost of encapsulation and make growth in the OLED industry all the more certain.

In addition, UDC is in a very good position to get its technology into the

marketplace, since it is one of only a few suppliers that already has seen their

emissive products appear in commercialized consumer goods.

E.3 Investment Opportunities in the OLED Encapsulation Business

This report is not intended as a guide for venture capital (VC) or strategic investors, but it is

possible to identify some market needs in the OLED encapsulation sector that may be of

potential interest. The key factors that lead us to believe that there are some real

opportunities for investment are the following:

After many years of languishing, OLEDs have finally emerged as a real market, and

the opportunities for growth are great, especially for firms that can offer

encapsulation technologies with tangible performance and cost benefits over the

market-dominant cover glass strategies in use today.

The biggest growth sectors for OLEDs are in larger-format panels, both in OLED TV

displays and, even more importantly, in OLED lighting. Therefore, the total

addressable area for OLED encapsulation is set to expand greatly as these markets

grow, which will lead to higher volumes for materials suppliers.

In the highest growth markets—OLED TVs and OLED lighting—requirements for

encapsulation barrier performance are greater than found in the smaller displays

on the market today. As a result, the opportunities are greater for firms to

differentiate themselves and gain market share based on encapsulation that

enables better lifetime performance.

Given the above factors, NanoMarkets believes that there are some potential areas where

new or additional investment might be justified:

Multilayer, or better yet, single layer, laminates that actually deliver on the promise

of low cost manufacturing using polymers and polymeric substrates without

sacrificing barrier performance.

Truly flexible OLEDs, which would require truly flexible encapsulation, are still far in

the future, but there is real opportunity to expand the capabilities of OLED devices

by offering partially bendable or conformable encapsulation options. If partial

flexibility is all that is really required, then there are probably already several dyad

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and similar technologies available today that just need a slight nudge to get them

into the market.

Flexible glass should not be ignored. The performance benefits of glass are simply

too great to overlook. And since glass manufacturing costs are closely linked to

weight, thin flexible glass may be able to reduce costs even more that might be

expected at first glance. Furthermore, since truly flexible OLEDs seem to be

perpetually several years away from commercialization, the partial, yet real,

flexibility of thin, flexible glass may be just what is needed for larger format, high

volume OLED manufacturing of OLED TVs and OLED lighting.

From where will the investment originate? We do not anticipate any new outside investment

in cover glass encapsulation. Instead, we expect that the major glass companies—Asahi Glass,

NEG, Corning, etc.—will continue to dominate cover glass technology improvements through

offerings like air-gap free or frit-sealed covers. There is just no compelling reason for any new

firms to enter. The expertise within the glass industry is extensive, the competition among

them is already fierce, and all the major firms have broad, active R&D programs aimed at new

sectors like OLEDs.

However, there may be significant opportunities for productive outside investment in non-

glass encapsulation. There are several factors that will positively impact investment in non-

traditional technologies:

Clearly, investors will only act if they believe that the OLED market will grow well

beyond its size today. Fortunately, the indications are that it will. OLEDs in

smartphones are taking off, with Samsung leading the way; OLED TVs are expected

to finally be widely available in the very near term; and OLED lighting is poised to

grow to be the largest addressable market of all. And all of these markets could

benefit from encapsulation technologies that improve barrier performance while

also reducing costs associated with heavy, batch process cover glass.

Although investors are attracted to companies with demonstrated sales, which are

hard to come by at this point, they may also be attracted to technologies that

demonstrate big performance advantages with the promise of large investment

gains down the road. As we have already noted, non-glass encapsulation strategies

based on low-cost, R2R-compatible barrier laminates could gain significant market

share in the mid- to long-term. The growth sectors for OLEDs in TV displays and in

lighting will both rely on high volume manufacturing to realize economies of scale

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sufficient to bring costs down to levels that support truly widespread consumer

adoption, and R2R production would clearly be a step in this direction.

Since the barrier performance requirements in OLED encapsulation are stricter

than in almost any other sector, the addressable market is even larger than it

seems at first glance. Of particular interest is the photovoltaics industry, which is

itself in an upward growth trajectory, and which significantly expands the market

for encapsulation. Investors can capitalize on this expanding market as way to

leverage their specific technology across two industries—one which is "easier"

(photovoltaics) and the other which is perhaps more of a stretch initially (OLEDs).

But what kind of investors are we really talking about? Are these venture capital

opportunities, or something else? In NanoMarkets' opinion, we think that additional or new

VC investment is unlikely, if for no other reason than that the OLED industry has already been

around long enough for VC firms to get in (and get back out, in some cases); the time for high

risk/high return investing has probably passed. Investment from angel investors is more likely

than VC investment, but again here we think their time has largely passed.

In contrast, investment in the form of takeovers by large industrial firms, especially big

consolidated firms in the display or lighting device or materials industries, is far more likely.

Large and mid-size firms already in the display or lighting markets can more readily

be pulled into strategic deals based on synergies that lead to larger cash flows than

pure equity investors would realize.

In addition, NanoMarkets believes that it will continue to be important for

encapsulation firms to be sufficiently linked into the OLED supply chain, and that it

will be increasingly important for all existing and new encapsulation suppliers to

partner closely with end-users.

In fact, we have already seen OLED manufacturers acquire encapsulation firms with

Samsung's de facto takeover of the Vitex Barix technology, and we expect this

trend to continue with other encapsulation firms.

E.4 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts for OLED Encapsulation Technologies 2011-2018

Overview of market segmentation by encapsulation technology: Today, OLED encapsulation

is almost entirely achieved with cover glass/getter/epoxy technologies. Although efforts are

underway to develop alternative thin film and/or R2R encapsulation approaches, at present

the alternatives invariably cost more than glass covers.

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In order for an alternative technology—whether in the form of a laminated barrier film, a

directly deposited coating, or a flexible glass film—to displace cover glass encapsulation in a

large segment of the OLED device industry, the cost of the alternatives must come down

substantially. NanoMarkets does not anticipate that prices for non-glass and flexible glass

encapsulation will come down much in the near term, but we are hearing from the industry

that there are reasons to believe that costs can and will decline over time.

This expectation is not breaking news; most encapsulation materials are already in a pattern

of declining prices. It is a generally accepted necessity that the costs of OLED materials must

drop for OLEDs to meet their market potential and compete with other display and lighting

technologies. In general, encapsulation materials are currently produced in limited quantities

at relatively high prices.

The hope, of course, is that as OLED demand increases, production volumes will increase and

manufacturers will realize economies of scale and faster recovery of initial development costs.

Such changes may also attract more competition among producers of encapsulation products,

which could help lower prices even further. Additionally, there may be technical

breakthroughs that lead to very much lower prices.

Overview of encapsulation market segmentation by OLED application: In Exhibit E-1 we

present a summary of the eight-year revenue forecasts for the OLED encapsulation market.

This forecast separates the OLED encapsulation market in two ways. First, the market is

separated into two broad categories, displays and lighting, each of which is further divided by

OLED application. Second, the market is divided into rigid vs. flexible displays.

These summaries highlight two major trends, each of which is discussed in more detail

throughout the report:

Although the OLED lighting sector is quite small today, growth in OLED lighting is

expected to outpace other sectors so that revenues from encapsulation of OLED

lighting panels will dominate starting in about 2016.

Rigid OLEDs, both in displays and lighting, will be the major factor in OLED

encapsulation throughout the forecast period.

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0

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Year

Summary: Value of Encapsulation by OLED Application 2011-2018 ($ Millions)

Flexible Lighting

Rigid Lighting

Flexible Displays

OLED TVs

Small, Rigid Displays

© NanoMarkets 2011

0

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

$ M

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© NanoMarkets, LC

Total OLED Encapsulation Market

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Chapter One: Introduction to OLED Encapsulation Technologies

1.1 Background to this Report: Where Are the Opportunities for OLED Encapsulation Materials?

1.1.1 Preamble

OLEDs are highly vulnerable to oxygen and water vapor, so they present an encapsulation

issue; developments to improve barrier performance have been discussed in the OLED

industry since its earliest days. Until recently, however, OLED encapsulation materials

represented a relatively small market for chemical companies and a few start-ups. For many

years there were few signs that OLEDs were going to break out of their niche market pattern,

with almost all of the OLED market being accounted for by passive matrix displays for MP3

payers, cell-phone sub-displays, etc.

The situation was further complicated by the popular notion among OLED manufacturers that

encapsulation was the least of their worries, since most OLEDs could be successfully

encapsulated in a stack that often also included desiccant under glass using epoxy adhesives

for edge sealing. The simple glass and epoxy encapsulation approach was not only all that was

required for small displays, it was all that display makers were willing to pay for, and it

continues to be the principal encapsulation strategy in place today.

Even as the size of the passive matrix OLED business grew, true opportunities for OLED

encapsulation were highly limited, and few materials firms were able to sustain a business

based on encapsulation materials alone. And although materials suppliers were initially happy

to supply these applications, they did so with the expectation that markets large enough to

justify their efforts would eventually emerge.

1.1.2 Finally, A Growing Market for OLEDs Emerges

Fortunately (at least for encapsulation systems makers), the opportunities have grown in

recent years in important ways:

OLED displays have at last been "mainstreamed" with the arrival of mass-market

cell phones containing active-matrix OLEDs as primary displays; NanoMarkets has

estimated that the size of the total OLED materials market exceeded $300 million in

2011.

Meanwhile, OLED lighting is now on the market in the form of "designer"

chandeliers and table lamps, and larger segments of the lighting market are likely

to be penetrated by OLED lighting in the next few years.

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And while the first attempts to introduce OLED TVs stumbled, it seems that 2012 or

2013 will see the introduction of OLED TVs on the market with much greater

chances of market success than the products that preceded them.

These trends mean that the addressable market for OLED encapsulation materials is rapidly

growing and should continue to do so. Importantly, the fastest-growing applications for

OLEDs involve larger-area panels that by definition consume relatively larger amounts of

materials. NanoMarkets predicts that the OLED materials market will reach over $5 billion in

sales by 2018, and at least 10 percent, or about $500 million, of this revenue will come from

encapsulation materials and technologies. But the success of the market is not a foregone

conclusion; better encapsulation technologies at reasonable costs are required if larger-format

OLEDs are going to meet their potential.

Why? The glass and epoxy strategy may have worked for small format OLEDs—cell phones,

smartphones, MP3 players, etc. But:

The consensus is that these materials will not be sufficient for the larger-format

OLEDs that are now growing in market share;

Nor are these materials compatible with flexible and/or conformable OLEDs; and

Although it has been relatively easy to achieve the barrier performance goals for

small devices, it has been very difficult to scale up the technology for high-volume

commercial production of larger panels for OLED lighting and TV displays. It is not

just the fact that OLED TV displays and lighting panels are large, but that such

products are expected to last longer than cell phones and MP3 players.

The new OLED markets have much higher product lifetime expectations, hence more

sophisticated encapsulation technologies with better performance are required to enable real

growth.

As a result of the trend toward large panels, NanoMarkets believes that:

We are now looking at some real opportunities for the firms that have been

working on the encapsulation issue, many of whom have poured resources into this

area for several years.

Furthermore, the opportunity space for these firms will only get better when

conformable and flexible OLEDs start to make it to the market, which we expect to

happen in perhaps four to five years. Truly flexible displays have yet to take off,

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and the lack of cost-effective encapsulation technologies capable of meeting the

strict water and oxygen permeation barrier requirements is at least partially to

blame. Firms in the lighting and display industry are therefore beginning to see

encapsulation as an area of strategic importance and are looking increasingly at

specialized value-added encapsulation materials to meet their needs.

Currently, displays that can be flexed in one or two dimensions are a huge challenge to the

encapsulation business, but one that potentially will generate a lot of revenues to those

encapsulation providers that can bring stable encapsulation solutions to this performance

dimension. NanoMarkets believes that even conformable OLEDs, which are closer to market

than truly flexible ones, present an opportunity for encapsulation firms.

1.1.3 OLED Encapsulation Strategies

Cover glass for rigid OLED devices: As noted above, glass encapsulation strategies are the

most prevalent today, and the dominant suppliers are Corning and DuPont.

The majority of current OLEDs, especially bottom-emitting structures, are encapsulated using

a cover glass, desiccant (or getter), and an edge-sealing epoxy in a batch process strategy that

works especially well for small displays like those used in cell phones, etc. First, in these

smaller devices, the high barrier properties required are not so difficult to achieve, and the

product lifetimes of many of these smaller OLEDs are relatively short anyway. NanoMarkets

believes that even for larger, non-flexible OLEDs, glass/getter/epoxy encapsulation is likely to

continue to be a leading choice for OLEDs.

This approach will benefit from its "tried and true" status, and without the need for

flexibility or conformability, there are few compelling reasons to consider other

options, especially if the glass/getter/epoxy suppliers can demonstrate reduction in

processing costs and complexity.

While these arguments may be difficult to uphold for very large size panels and

high-throughput manufacturing, this situation will not be the case for

manufacturing of smaller and mid-sized panels used in smartphones, netbooks,

tablets, etc.

Flexible glass? For bottom-emission OLEDs, the emergence of viable flexible glass substrates

that are compatible with R2R processing cannot be ignored. Both Asahi Glass and Corning

have announced the development of 0.1-mm thick flexible glass rolls.

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If the firms can also demonstrate ways to include adhesive and desiccant for top-emission

structures, they could successfully overcome the biggest impediment to using glass for

encapsulation, namely the cost.

Multilayer barrier films: The most common non-glass approach to OLED encapsulation is the

use of a multilayer barrier film of alternating polymer and oxide layers deposited by physical

or chemical vapor deposition (PVD or CVD):

Multilayer barriers—whether in the form of pre-formed film laminates or

monolithic thin films deposited directly onto the OLED devices—have been touted

as having the potential to greatly reduce costs compared to rigid cover glass

designs through use of cheaper materials, thinner layers, and easier processing.

Monolithic encapsulation has been more prevalent than laminates, since

monolithic encapsulation of the OLED devices minimizes (but does not always

eliminate) the need for adhesives and getters to improve edge imperviousness.

Unfortunately, in reality the cost advantages have been elusive, often because so

many layers are needed to achieve the required barrier performance that any

processing cost benefits are lost.

The fundamental problem with multilayer barriers is that defects such as pinholes, cracks and

grain boundaries are common in the thin oxide films used, especially when fabricated onto

plastic substrates.

To solve this problem, multilayer barrier technologies have focused on using alternating

organic and inorganic multilayers, or dyads, which stagger the defects in adjacent layers. This

creates a "torturous path" for water and oxygen molecules; the idea is to make the pathway

long enough so that water and oxygen simply will not be able to make it to the sensitive OLED

stack.

Unfortunately, the more layers that are employed, the less flexible is the finished product, so

although multilayers are promising candidates for encapsulation based on their excellent

barrier performance, they have struggled to meet the needs of flexible, R2R-manufactured

OLEDs on plastic substrates.

Today, 3M dominates the market, small though it is. Other firms with multilayer dyad films

are Dow, GE, Alcan Packaging, and Fujifilm. An early developer of technology in this area was

Vitex Systems, which made a strategic deal in 2010 with Samsung and now appears to have

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been largely absorbed by Samsung Mobile Displays and Samsung Cheil, which continue to

work on barrier systems.

A second, and perhaps even more important, major problem for most dyad films on the

market today is cost, which can be as high as $70 to $100 per square meter. Efforts are thus

ongoing to reduce the number of layers required to achieve the desired barrier properties. An

added benefit from reduction of the number of layers is that flexibility could also conceivably

be improved.

Multilayer barriers based on ALD: Atomic layer deposition (ALD) strategies for multilayer

barrier films have also garnered much interest in recent years. ALD is considered to give

better film qualities than CVD or PVD methods; the number of film defects is reduced, so both

layer thicknesses and the number of layers can, at least in theory, be reduced.

We note, however, that these advantages are meaningful only if there is a concurrent

reduction in the cost of the layers. NanoMarkets believes that there is promise in this area,

but remains skeptical about the ability of ALD manufacturing to handle high throughputs or

R2R processing—especially for flexible OLEDs. Instead, ALD encapsulation strategies may be

practically limited to higher-end and/or batch process OLED lighting markets.

Beneq Oy, an ALD equipment maker and technology developer, is the clear leader in this sub-

market of the OLED encapsulation industry, but other firms including SunDew Technologies

and ALD NanoSolutions have also entered the fray.

Other kinds of barrier strategies: To meet cost and flexibility goals, the development of a

"single layer" barrier has been something of a "holy grail" in the encapsulation industry. To

the best of NanoMarkets' knowledge, this objective has not yet been achieved, but several

firms appear to be getting closer:

Tera-Barrier Films is commercializing an innovative barrier film that is purported to

solve the defect problem of traditional dyad films by literally plugging the defects in

the barrier oxide films using nanoparticles, thereby reducing the number of barrier

layers needed in the construction of the barrier film down to just two layers—an

oxide and a nanoparticulate sealing layer.

In addition, Universal Display Corporation, a longtime advocate of Vitex's Barix, is

now also advertising its own "single layer" system, which, if real and cost-effective,

could revolutionize the industry.

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1.2 Objectives and Scope of this Report

In this new report from NanoMarkets, we analyze and quantify the opportunities for

encapsulation materials and technologies in the fast-growing OLED market. The report covers

the commercial implications of technical developments in both materials and deposition

equipment, and we identify the key factors for success for encapsulation materials suppliers in

this space. This report is entirely international in scope. The forecasts are worldwide forecasts

and we have not been geographically selective in the firms that we have covered in the report

or interviewed in order to collect information.

The report also contains detailed, eight-year forecasts of the materials used for OLED

encapsulation broken out by product type and application wherever possible. Finally, we

examine the product development and marketing strategies of the major players in the OLED

encapsulation materials sector from large to specialty firms, and we attempt to indicate which

are the "companies to watch" and which will be the likely winners and losers in the

encapsulation materials space.

1.3 Methodology of this Report

NanoMarkets has been covering the OLED materials markets for several years and is widely

regarded as having reliable reports on this topic. To determine where the opportunities are,

we have based this report on both primary and secondary research:

Primary information is gathered largely through NanoMarkets' analysis of relevant

applications markets and market trends based on ongoing discussions with key

players in the OLED materials community, including entrepreneurs, business

development and marketing managers, and technologists involved with OLED

materials and emerging display products of all kinds.

Secondary research is drawn from the technical literature, relevant company Web

sites, trade journals and press articles, and various collateral items from trade

shows and conferences.

Some of the applications-related market information in this report comes from our most

recent reports on the covered applications areas. Reports from which some data have been

taken include "OLED Lighting Materials Market Trends and Impact" of June 2011, "Markets for

OLED Materials" also from June 2011, "OLED Lighting Global Market Forecasts" from May

2011, "OLED Lighting in Asia" from April 2011, "OLED Lighting in Europe" from May 2011, and

"Encapsulation and Flexible Substrates for Organic and Dye-Sensitized Photovoltaics" from

January 2011. Where information has been used from another report, it has been

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reinvestigated, reanalyzed, and reconsidered in light of current information and updated

accordingly.

The forecasting approach used in this report is explained in more detail in Chapter Four, but

the basic approach is to identify and quantify the underlying OLED application markets, the

barrier requirements for those applications, and the technological and market pressures that

affect the ability of different encapsulation and barrier technologies to penetrate those

markets.

We consider both the specific performance needs of the various OLED applications and the

broader economic developments that impact the size and rate of growth of the OLED markets

for each application area. Activities and developments at key firms are of course of special

interest, although NanoMarkets critically considers these claims in light of all available data.

1.4 Plan of this Report

In Chapter Two, we provide an analysis of the different materials sets and deposition

technologies for OLED encapsulation. As part of this analysis, we briefly examine the focus

and strategies of the principal manufacturers and suppliers, and we pay particular attention to

innovations and strategies being followed to reduce costs, increase performance, and

customize products for particular markets and applications.

Chapter Three of this report provides a more in-depth analysis of the major applications

where OLEDs are being used now or will be used in the future, from mobile-phone displays to

flat-panel televisions and solid-state lighting. The idea here is not to provide a comprehensive

analysis of OLED markets, but rather to offer a survey of the addressable markets for OLED

encapsulation suppliers.

In Chapter Four, we provide detailed, eight-year forecasts of the OLED encapsulation markets

with breakouts by technology type and by application type wherever possible.