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INTRO TO CONDUCTIONG RISK ASSESSMENTS NIST SPECIAL PUBLICATION 800-30 (REVISION 1) Denise Tawwab, CISSP March 2, 2016

NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

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Page 1: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

INTRO TO CONDUCTIONG RISK ASSESSMENTSNIST SPECIAL PUBLICATION 800-30 (REVISION 1)

Denise Tawwab, CISSP

March 2, 2016

Page 2: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

ABOUT YOUR PRESENTER – DENISE TAWWAB

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 2

CCSK - Certificate of Cloud Security Knowledge

Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

Page 3: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

WHAT IS NIST SPECIAL PUBLICATION 800-30

Applicability

Purpose

Related Publications

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 3Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

Page 4: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

EVOLUTION OF RISK AND INFORMATION SECURITY

THEN NOW

Confidentiality Confidentiality, Integrity, Availability

Static, Snapshot Focus Dynamic, continuous monitoring, situationally awareness focus

Protect Information Protect AND Share information

Risk Avoidance Risk Management

Government-Centric Solutions Commercial, off-the-shelf solutions

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 4Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

Page 5: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

WHAT WE WILL COVER

The Risk Management Process (2.1)

The Role of Risk Assessments in the Risk Management Process (2.2)

Basic Concepts Used in Conducting Risk Assessments (2.3)

Communications and Information Sharing (2.4)

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 5Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (2.1)

Risk assessment is a key piece of an organization-wide risk management process

This Risk Management Process is Defined in NIST SP 800-39, Managing Information

Security Risk: Organization, Mission, and Information System View

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 6Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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THE 4 COMPONENTS OF THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS

Framing Risk

Assessing Risk

Responding to Risk

Monitoring

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 7

Information and

Communication Flows

Information and

Communication Flows

Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

Page 8: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS – FRAMING RISK

The purpose of the Risk Framing component is to describe the environment (context) in which risk-based

decisions will be made.

The output of risk framing is a risk management strategy that addresses how the organization intends to assess,

respond to, and monitor risk.

The risk management strategy establishes a foundation for managing risk and sets the boundaries for risk-based

decisions within organizations.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 8Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS – ASSESSING RISK

The purpose of the Risk Assessment component is to identify:

threats to organizations (operations, assets, or individuals) or threats directed through organizations against

other organizations or the Nation,

internal and external vulnerabilities,

the adverse impacts (harm) that may occur,

the likelihood that harm will occur.

The end result of a risk assessment is a determination of risk.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 9Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS – RESPONDING TO RISK

The purpose of the Risk Response component is to address how the organization will consistently respond to the

risk determined in the risk assessment in accordance with the organizational risk frame by:

Developing alternative courses of action for responding to risk

Evaluating the alternative courses of action

Determining appropriate courses of action consistent with risk tolerance

Implementing risk responses based on selected courses of action

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 10Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS – MONITORING RISK

The purpose of the Risk Monitoring component is to address how the organization will monitor risk over time.

Risk monitoring

Determines the ongoing effectiveness of risk responses.

Identifies risk-impacting changes to information systems and/or the environments in which the systems operate.

Verifies that planned risk responses are implemented and producing the desired results, and that information

security requirements (derived from mission/business functions, legislation, directives, regulations, policies, standards, and

guidelines) are satisfied.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 11Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (2.1)

Framing Risk

Assessing Risk Responding to Risk

Monitoring

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 12

Information and

Communication Flows

Information and

Communication Flows

Assess

Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

Page 13: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

SP 800-30 DEALS WITH THE RISK ASSESSMENT COMPONENT OF RMP

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 13

Information and

Communication Flows

Information and

Communication Flows

Assess

Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

Page 14: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

RISK ASSESSMENTS (2.2)

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 14Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK ASSESSMENTS

Purposes of Risk Assessments

Characteristics of Risk Assessments

Decisions/Actions Supported by Risk Assessments

Step-by-Step Process for Risk Assessments in NIST 800-30

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 15Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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PURPOSES OF RISK ASSESSMENTS

Risk assessments address potential adverse impacts arising from the operation and

use of information systems and the information processed, stored, and transmitted by

those systems.

Organizations conduct risk assessments to determine risks that are common to the

organization’s core mission/business functions, processes, segments, common

infrastructure/support services, or information systems.

Risk assessments can support a wide variety of risk-based decisions and activities by

organizational officials across all 3 tiers in the RM hierarchy.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 16Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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CHARACTERISTICS OF RISK ASSESSMENTS

Risk assessments are NOT one-time activities.

Employed on an ongoing basis throughout the system development life cycle and across all tiers in the

risk management hierarchy.

The frequency of risk assessments depends on the purpose and scope of the assessments.

The resources applied during an assessment depend on the expressly defined purpose and scope of

the assessments.

The validity and usefulness of any risk assessment is bounded in time because missions/business

functions, business processes, information systems, threats, and environments of operation tend to

change over time)

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 17Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK-BASED DECISIONS/ACTIVITIES SUPPORTED BY ASSESSMENTS

Development of an information security architecture

Definition of interconnection requirements for information systems

Design of security solutions for information systems and environments of operation including selection of security controls, IT products, suppliers/supply chain, and contractors.

Authorization (or denial of authorization) to operation information systems or to use security controls inherited by those systems (i.e. common controls);

Modification of business functions and/or processes permanently or for a specific time frame (e.g. until a newly discovered threat or vulnerability is addressed, until a compensating control is replaced);

Implementation of security solutions (e.g. whether specific IT products or configurations for those products meet established requirements); and

Operation and maintenance of security solutions (e.g. continuous monitoring strategies and programs, ongoing authorizations).

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 18Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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800-30 PROVIDES A STEP-BY-STEP PROCESS FOR RISK ASSESSMENTS

How to Prepare for Risk Assessments

How to Conduct Risk Assessments

How to Communicate the Risk Assessment Results

How to Maintain the Risk Assessments over Time

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 19Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK ASSESSMENTS – WHAT WE COVERED

Purposes of Risk Assessments

Characteristics of Risk Assessments

Decisions/Actions Supported by Risk Assessments

Step-by-Step Process for Risk Assessments in NIST 800-30

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 20Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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KEY RISK CONCEPTS (2.3)AND RELATIONSHIPS AMONG RISK FRAMING AND RISK ASSESSMENT COMPONENTS

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 21Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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KEY RISK CONCEPTS – WHAT WE WILL COVER

Key Concepts (Risk, InfoSec Risk, Risk Assessment, Risk Assessment Methodology)

Risk Models (2.3.1)

Assessment Approaches (2.3.2)

Analysis Approaches (2.3.3)

Effects of Organizational Culture on Risk Assessments (2.3.4)

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 22Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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KEY RISK CONCEPTS – WHAT IS RISK AND INFO SECURITY RISK?

Risk is a measure of the extent to which an entity is threatened by a potential circumstance or event, and is typically

a function of:

The adverse impacts that would arise if the circumstance or event occurs; and

The likelihood of occurrence.

Information security risks – those risks that arise from the loss of confidentiality, integrity, or availability of

information or information systems and reflect the potential adverse impacts to organizational operations (i.e.,

mission, functions, image, or reputation), organizational assets, individuals, other organizations, and the nation.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 23Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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KEY RISK CONCEPTS – WHAT IS A RISK ASSESSMENT?

Risk Assessment – is the process of identifying, estimating, and prioritizing information security risks.

Assessing risk requires the careful analysis of threat and vulnerability information to determine the extent to which

circumstances or events could aversely impact an organization and the likelihood that such circumstances or events

will occur.

A risk assessment results in determination of risk.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 24Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RELATIONSHIP AMONG FRAMING & ASSESSMENT COMPONENTS

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 25Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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WHAT IS A RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

Risk Assessment methodologies are defined by organizations and are a component of the risk management

strategy developed during the risk framing step of the risk management process.

A Risk Assessment Methodology typically includes:

Risk assessment process

Risk model

Assessment approach

Analysis approach

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 26Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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COMPONENTS OF A RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 27Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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CAN USE ONE OR MORE RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES

Organizations can use a single risk assessment methodology or can employ multiple assessment methodologies, with

the selection of a specific methodology depending on, for example:

The time frame for investment planning or for planning policy changes;

The complexity/maturity of organizational mission/business processes (by enterprise architecture segments);

The phase of the information systems in the SDLC; or

The criticality/sensitivity of the information and information systems supporting the core organizational

missions/business functions.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 28Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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REPRODUCIBILITY/REPEATABILITY OF ASSESSMENTS

By having an explicit risk methodology and requiring – as part of the assessment process – a rationale for

the assessed values of risk factors, organizations can increase the reproducibility and repeatability of risk

assessments.

Reproducibility refers to the ability of different experts to produce the same results from the same

data.

Repeatability refers to the ability to repeat the assessment in the future in a manner that is consistent

with and comparable to prior assessments – enabling the organization to identify trends.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 29Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK MODELS (2.3.1)DEFINE THE RISK FACTORS TO BE ASSESSED AND THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG THOSE FACTORS

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 30Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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WHAT IS A RISK MODEL (2.3.1)

A Risk Model defines the risk factors to be assessed and the relationship among those factors.

Risk factors should be clearly defined and documented BEFORE conducting the risk assessment because the

assessment relies upon well-defined attributes of threats, vulnerabilities, impact, and other risk factors to

effectively determine risk.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 31Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK FACTORS

Threats

Threat sources

Threat events

Vulnerabilities and predisposing conditions

Likelihood of occurrence

Impact

Risk

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 32Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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DECOMPOSING RISK FACTORS INTO CHARACTERISTICS

Risk factors can be decomposed into more detailed characteristics (e.g., threats decomposed into threat sources

and threat events).

A risk factor can have a single assessable characteristic (e.g., impact severity) or multiple characteristics,

Some characteristics may be assessable and some may not be assessable. Characteristics which are not assessable

typically help determine what lower-level characteristics are relevant.

Example: a threat source has a (characteristic) threat type (using a taxonomy of threat types, which are nominal

rather than assessable). The threat type determines which of the more detailed characteristics are relevant (e.g., a

threat source of type adversarial has associated characteristics of capabilities, intent, and targeting, which are

directly assessable characteristics).

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 33Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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THREAT , THREAT EVENTS, AND THREAT SCENARIO

A threat is any circumstance or event with the potential to adversely impact organizational operations and

assets, individuals, other organizations, or the Nation through an information system via unauthorized access,

destruction, disclosure or modification of information and/or denial of service.

Organizations can choose to specify threat events as

single events, actions, or circumstances; or

sets and/or sequences of related actions, activities, and/or circumstances.

Threat events are caused by threat sources, and (when caused by adversarial threat sources) are characterized

by tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) employed by adversaries.

Threat events identified with great specificity allow you to model, develop, and analyze threat scenarios. A threat

Scenario is a set of discrete threat events, attributed to a specific threat source or multiple threat sources,

ordered in time, that result in adverse effects.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 34Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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THREAT SOURCE

A Threat Source is:

The intent and method targeted at the exploitation of a vulnerability; or

A situation and method that may accidentally exploit a vulnerability.

4 Types of Threat sources

Adversarial - Hostile cyber or physical attacks

(Individuals, groups, organizations, or states that seek to exploit the organization’s dependence on cyber resources)

Accidental - Human errors (commission or omission)

Structural - Failures of resources controlled by the organization (e.g., hardware, software, environmental controls);

Environmental - Natural and man-made disasters, accidents, and failures beyond the control of the organization.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 35Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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THREAT SHIFTING

Threat shifting is the response of adversaries to your safeguards and/or countermeasures (i.e., security controls) in which they

change their intent/targeting in order to avoid or defeat those safeguards/countermeasures. Default is to the path of least

resistance.

Threat shifting can occur in one or more domains, including:

The Time domain – delay in an attack or illegal entry to conduct additional surveillance

The Target domain – select a target that is not as well protected.

The Resource domain – add resources to the attack in order to reduce uncertainty or overcome safeguards and/or

countermeasures; or

The Attack planning/Attack method domain – change the attack weapon or attack path.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 36Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK FACTORS

Threat sources

Threat events

Vulnerabilities and predisposing conditions

Likelihood of occurrence

Impact

Risk

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 37Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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TABLE E-2: REPRESENTATIVE EXAMPLES – ADVERSARIAL THREAT EVENTS

Threat Events (characterized by TTPs) Description

Perform Reconnaissance and Gather Data

Perform perimeter network recon/scanning, Adversary Uses commercial or free software to scan organizational perimeter to obtain a

better understanding of the information technology infrastructure and improve the ability to

launch successful attacks.

Craft or Create Attack Tools

Create counterfeit/spoof website Adversary creates duplicates of legitimate websites, when users visit a counterfeit site, the site

can gather information or download malware.

Deliver/insert/install Malicious Capabilities

Deliver known malware to internal organizational information systems (e.g.,

virus via email)

Adversary uses common delivery mechanisms (e.g., email) to install/insert known malware (e.g.,

malware whose existence is known) into organizational information systems.

Exploit and Compromise

Exploit physical access of authorized staff to gain access to organizational

facilities.

Adversary follows (“tailgates”) authorized individuals into secure/controlled locations with the

goal of gaining access to facilities, circumventing physical security checks.

Conduct an Attack (i.e., direct/coordinate attack tools or activities).

Achieve Results (i.e., cause adverse impacts, obtain information)

Maintain a presence or set of capabilities.

Coordinate a campaign

38Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSKNIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS

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TABLE E-3: REPRESENTATIVE EXAMPLES – NON-ADVERSARIAL THREAT EVENTS

Threat Event Description

Spill Sensitive Information Authorized user erroneously contaminates a device, information system, or network by placing on it o sending to

it information of a classification/sensitivity which it has not been authorized to handle. The information is exposed

to access b unauthorized individuals, and as a result, the device, system, or network is unavailable while the spill is

investigated and mitigated.

Mishandling of critical and/or sensitive information by

authorized users

Authorized privileged user inadvertently exposes critical/sensitive information

Incorrect privilege settings Authorized privileged user or administrator erroneously assigns a user exceptional privileges or sets privilege

requirements on a resource too low.

Communications contention Degraded communications performance due to contention.

Unreadable display Display unreadable due to aging equipment.

Earthquake at primary facility. Earthquake of organization-defined magnitude at primary facility makes facility inoperable

Fire at primary facility Fire (not due to adversarial activity) at primary facility makes facility inoperable.

Fire at backup facility Fire (not due to adversarial activity) at backup facility makes facility inoperable or destroys backups of software,

configurations, data, and/or logs

Resource depletion Degraded processing performance due to resource depletion.

Introduction of vulnerabilities into software products. Due to inherent weaknesses in programming languages and software development environments, errors and

vulnerabilities are introduced into commonly used software products.

Disk error Corrupted storage due to a disk error.39Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSKNIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS

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RISK FACTORS

Threat sources

Threat events)

Vulnerabilities and predisposing conditions

Likelihood of occurrence

Impact

Risk

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 40Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK FACTOR –VULNERABILITY

A vulnerability is a weakness in an information system, system security procedures, internal controls, or

implementation that could be exploited by a threat source.

Vulnerabilities can be found not only in information systems but also in organizational governance structures,

external relationships, mission/business processes, and enterprise/information security architectures.

The severity of a vulnerability is an assessment of the relative importance of mitigating/remediating the

vulnerability. Severity can be determined by the extent of the potential adverse impact if such a vulnerability is

exploited by a threat source. The severity of vulnerabilities is context-dependent.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 41Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK FACTOR - PREDISPOSING CONDITIONS

A predisposing condition is a condition that exists within an organization, a business process, enterprise

architecture, information system, or environment of operation which affects (i.e. increases or decreases) the

likelihood that threat events, once initiated, result in adverse impacts to organizational operations and assets,

individuals, other organizations, or the Nation.

Location of a facility in a flood zone or hurricane-prone region (increases)

A stand-alone information system with no external network connectivity (decreases)

Gaps in contingency plans

Use of outdated technologies

Weaknesses in information system backup and failover mechanisms

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 42Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

Page 43: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

TABLE F-4: TAXONOMY OF PREDISPOSING CONDITIONS

Type of Predisposing Condition Description

Information-Related

• Classified National Security Information

• Compartments

• Controlled Unclassified Information

• Personally Identifiable Information

• Special Access Programs

• Agreement-Determined (NOFORN, Proprietary)

Needs to handle information (as it is

created, transmitted, stored, processed,

and/or displayed) in a specific manner,

due to its sensitivity (or lack of

sensitivity), legal or regulatory

requirements, and/or contractual or

other organizational agreements.

Technical

• Architectural

• Compliance with technical standards

• Use of specific products or product lines

• Solutions for and/or approaches to user-based collaboration and information sharing.

• Allocation of specific security functionality to common controls

• Functional

• Network multiuser

• Simple-user

• Stand-alone / non-networked

• Restricted functionality (e.g., communications, sensors, embedded controllers)

Needs to use technology in specific

ways.

Operational / Environmental

• Mobility (Fixed-site (specify location); Semi-mobile (land-based, Airborne, Sea-based, Space-based);

Mobile (e.g., handheld device)

• Population with physical and/or logical access to components of the Information System, mission/business process, EA segment

• Size of population

• Clearance/vetting of population

Ability to rely upon physical, procedural,

and personnel controls provided by the

operational environment.

43Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSKNIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS

Page 44: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

RISK FACTORS

Threat sources

Threat events)

Vulnerabilities and predisposing conditions

Likelihood of occurrence

Impact

Risk

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 44Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK FACTOR - LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE

Likelihood of Occurrence is a weighted risk factor based on an analysis of the probability that a given threat is

capable of exploiting a given vulnerability (or set of vulnerabilities).

For adversarial threats, and assessment of likelihood of occurrence is based on:

Adversary intent

Adversary capability

Adversary Targeting

For non-adversarial threats an assessment of likelihood of occurrence is based on

Historical evidence

Empirical data

Other factors

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 45Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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DETERMINING THE LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE

3-step process to determine the overall likelihood of occurrence:

1. Assess the likelihood that threat events will be initiated (adversarial) or will occur (non-adversarial).

2. Assess the likelihood that the threat event once initiated or occurring, will result in adverse impacts or harm

3. Assess the overall likelihood as a combination of likelihood of initiation/occurrence and likelihood of resulting in

harm.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 46Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

Page 47: NIST 800-30 Intro to Conducting Risk Assessments - Part 1

RISK FACTORS

Threat sources

Threat events)

Vulnerabilities and predisposing conditions

Likelihood of occurrence

Impact

Risk

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 47Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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RISK FACTORS - IMPACT

Impact is the magnitude of harm that can be expected to result from the consequences of unauthorized

disclosure of information, unauthorized modification of information, unauthorized destruction of information, or

loss of information or information system availability.

Clearly define:

The process used to conduct impact determinations

Assumptions related to impact determinations (Risk tolerance assumptions may state that threat evets with an impact

below a specific value do not warrant further analysis.)

Sources and methods for obtaining impact information

Rationale for conclusions reached with regard to impact determinations.

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 48Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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TYPES OF IMPACT

Harm to Operations

Harm to Assets

Harm to Individuals

Harm to Other Organizations

Harm to the Nation

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RISK FACTORS

Threat sources

Threat events)

Vulnerabilities and predisposing conditions

Likelihood of occurrence

Impact

Risk

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RISK FACTORS - RISK

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RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACHES (2.3.2)KEY CONCEPTS

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3 RISK ASSESSMENT APPROACHES (2.3.2)

Quantitative

Qualitative

Semi-Quantitative

Each approach has advantages and disadvantages. A preferred approach (or set of

approaches) can be selected based on organizational culture and attitudes toward the

concepts of uncertainty and risk communication.

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ASSESSMENT APPROACHES – QUANTITATIVE

Quantitative Assessments use a set of methods, principles or rules for assessing risk based on numbers –

where the meaning and proportionality of values are maintained inside and outside the context of the assessment.

Most effectively supports cost-benefit analyses of alternative risk responses or courses of action.

The meaning of the quantitative results may not always be clear and may require interpretation and explanation –

particularly to explain the assumptions and constraints on using the results. Organizations may typically ask if the

numbers or results obtained in the risk assessments are reliable or if the differences in the obtained values are meaningful

or insignificant.

The rigor of quantification is significantly lessened when subjective determinations are buried within the

quantitative assessments, or when significant uncertainty surrounds the determination of values.

The benefits of quantitative assessments (rigor, repeatability, and reproducibility of results) can be outweighed by

the costs (expert time/effort and the possible deployment and use of tools required to make such assessments)

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ASSESSMENT APPROACHES – QUALITATIVE

Qualitative Assessments use a set of methods, principles, or rules for assessing risk based on non-numerical

categories or levels (e.g. very low, low, moderate, high, very high).

Supports communicating risk results to decision makers

The range of values in qualitative assessments is comparatively small in most cases, making the relative

prioritization or comparison within the set of reported risks difficult.

Unless each value is clearly defined or is characterized by meaningful examples, different experts relying on their

individual different experiences could produce significantly different assessment results.

The repeatability and reproducibility of qualitative assessments are increased by the annotation of assessed values

(e.g. This value is high because of the following reasons) and by the use of tables or other well-defined functions to

combine qualitative values.

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ASSESSMENT APPROACHES – SEMI-QUANTITATIVE

Semi-Quantitative Assessments use a set of methods, principles, or rules for assessing risk that uses bins,

scales, or representative numbers whose values and meanings are not maintained in other contexts.

Provides the benefits of quantitative and qualitative assessments.

The role of expert judgement in assigning values is more evident than in a purely quantitative approach.

If the scales or sets of bins provide sufficient granularity, relative prioritization among results is better supported

than in a purely qualitative approach.

As in a quantitative approach, when subjective determinations are buried within assessments or when significant

uncertainty surrounds a determination of value, rigor is significantly lessened.

As with the non-numeric categories or levels used in a qualitative approach, each bin or range of values needs to

be clearly defined and/or characterized by meaningful examples.

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ASSESSMENT APPROACHES

Independent of the value scale selected, assessments make explicit the temporal

element of risk factors.

Organizations can associate a specific time period with assessments of likelihood of

occurrence and assessments of impact severity.

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RISK ANALYSIS APPROACHES (2.3.3)KEY CONCEPTS

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3 RISK ANALYSIS APPROACHES

Threat-oriented

Asset/impact-oriented

Vulnerability-oriented

Organizations have great flexibility in choosing a particular analysis approach. The specific approach taken is

driven by different organizational considerations (e.g., the quality and quantity of information available with

respect to threats, vulnerabilities, and impact/assets; the specific orientation carrying the highest priority for the

organizations; availability of analysis tools emphasizing certain orientations; or a combination of the above.

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RISK ANALYSIS APPROACHES

Analysis approaches differ with respect to the orientation or starting point of the risk assessment,

level of detail in the assessment, and how risks due to similar threat scenarios are treated.

Differences in the starting point of the risk assessment can bias the results, causing some risks not to

be identified.

Identification of risks from a second orientation (e.g., complementing a threat-oriented analysis

approach with an asset/impact-oriented analysis approach) can improve the rigor and effectiveness of

the analysis.

Each analysis approach takes into consideration the same risk factors, and thus entails the same set of

risk assessment activities, just in a different order.

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THREAT-ORIENTED ANALYSIS APPROACH

Starts with the identification of threat sources and threat events.

Focuses on developing threat scenarios.

Vulnerabilities are identified in the context of threats.

For adversarial threats, impacts are identified based on adversary intent.

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ASSET/IMPACT-ORIENTED ANALYSIS APPROACH

Starts with the identification of highly adverse impacts of concern and/or critical or high-value

assets (possibly using the results of a business impact analysis (BIA)).

Focuses on identifying threat events and threat sources that could lead to and/or that could seek

those impacts.

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VULNERABILITY-ORIENTED ANALYSIS APPROACH

Starts with a set of predisposing conditions or exploitable weaknesses/deficiencies in organizational

information systems or the environments in which the systems operate.

Identifies threat events that could exercise those vulnerabilities together with possible consequences

of vulnerabilities being exercised.

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MORE RIGOROUS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

In addition to the orientation of the analysis approach, organizations can apply more rigorous analysis techniques

such as graph-based, or attack trees to provide an effective way to account for the many-to-many relationships

between:

Threat sources and threat events (a single threat event can be caused by multiple threat sources and a single

threat source can cause multiple threat events)

Threat events and vulnerabilities (a single threat event can exploit multiple vulnerabilities and a single vulnerability

can be exploited by multiple threat events).

Threat events and impacts/assets (a single threat event can affect multiple assets or have multiple impacts, and a

single asset can be affected by multiple threat events).

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MORE RIGOROUS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES

Rigorous analysis approaches also provide a way to account for whether (in the given

time frame) a specific adverse impact could occur (or a specific asset could be harmed)

at most once, or perhaps repeatedly, depending on the nature of the impacts and on

how organizations recover from such adverse impacts.

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EFFECTS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE ON RISKKEY CONCEPTS – 2.3.4

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EFFECTS OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE ON RISK ASSESSMENTS

(2.3.4)

Cultural issues can predispose an organization to:

Employ risk models that assume a constant value for one or more possible risk factors, so that some factors that

are present in other organizations’ models are not represented.

Employ risk models that require detailed analyses using quantitative assessments (e.g. nuclear safety).

Prefer qualitative or semi-quantitative assessment approaches.

Organizations can use coarse or high-level risk models early in the SDLC to select security controls, and then

later use more detailed models to assess risk to given missions or business functions.

Organizational risk frames determine which risk models, assessment approaches, and analysis approaches to use

under varying circumstances.

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RISK COMMUNICATIONS & INFORMATION SHARING

Ongoing communications and information sharing among stakeholders ensure:

Inputs are as accurate as possible

Intermediate assessment results can be used, for example, to support risk assessments at other tiers; and

The results are meaningful and useful inputs to the risk response step in the risk management process.

Manner and form of communications is an expression of organizational culture as well as legal, regulatory, and contractual constraints and to be effective, should be consistent with other forms of risk communication within organizations.

Establish policies procedures and implementing mechanisms to ensure that the information produced during such assessments is effectively communicated and shared across all three risk management tiers.

To reinforce the importance of risk communication and information sharing use the input tables in the appendices of 800-30 as well as the recommended elements of a risk assessment report. Appendix K provides recommendations for risk communications/sharing among tiers.

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KEY RISK CONCEPTS – WHAT WE COVERED

Overview of Risk

Risk Models (2.3.1)

Assessment Approaches (2.3.2)

Analysis Approaches (2.3.3)

Effects of Organizational Culture on Risk Assessments (2.3.4)

Risk communications & information sharing (2.4.4)

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THE RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

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THE FUNDAMENTALS – WHAT WE COVERED

The Risk Management Process (2.1)

The Role of Risk Assessments in the Risk Management Process (2.2)

Basic Concepts Used in Conducting Risk Assessments (2.3)

Communications and Information Sharing (2.4)

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DENISE TAWWAB

NIST SP 800-30(REV 1): GUIDE FOR CONDUCTING RISK ASSESSMENTS 72

CCSK - Certificate of Cloud Security Knowledge

(919) 339-2253

Denise Tawwab, CISSP, CCSK

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INTRO TO CONDUCTIONG RISK ASSESSMENTSNIST SPECIAL PUBLICATION 800-30 (REVISION 1)