Next-Generation Ethernet from 100 Gbps to 400 Gbps and BeyondNovember 2013

About CIR

• CIR has been providing market analysis to the optical networking business since1985. We bring our experience and long history to the latest wave of opticalnetworking; networks operating up to the Terabit level and using the latestprotocol suites such as OTN.

• CIR reports provide both qualitative appraisals of the latest optical technologiesand quantitative analyses of their long-term revenue potential. Our analysistakes into consideration diverse factors such as network topology, financialresults, real estate statistics, technology adoption patterns and pricing trends

• Companies rely on CIR reports and consulting services because the forecastsare credible, the coverage is balanced and the insights are rock-solid. Leadersof strategic planning, marketing, sales, engineering and finance make up CIR’suser base. CIR also offers due diligence services to the financial community

Markets Covered by CIR

• Active Optical Cabling• Optical Interconnects• Silicon Photonic• 400G and Terabit Networks• Next-Generation Access• Novel Fiber and Laser Technology• Mobile Backhaul• Visible Light Communications• PONs• Vehicular Ethernet

Next-Generation Ethernet from 100 Gbps to 400 Gbps and Beyond

Published by CIR in November 2013

About the Report

• Based on more than two decades of experience, CIR presents in this report our view on how 400 GigE will be commercialized, how the 400 GigE business case will be made, and where the opportunities are to be found for carriers, equipment makers and component makers.

• This report is designed for optical networking firms at the equipment, subsystem and component levels of the Ethernet value chain.

• The report contains a quantitative forecast over the next decade for 400 GigE under several different scenarios, along with an assessment of strategies of the firms that CIR believes will be the key players in this space.

Goals of the 400 Gbps Ethernet Study Group

Item GoalMAC data rate 400 Gbps

Operation mode

Full-duplex operation only

Frame Ethernet frame format utilizing the Ethernet MAC and preserving the minimum and maximum frame size of current Ethernet MAC

Support of other standards

Appropriate support for OTN and optional support of Energy Efficient Ether (EEE) for 400 GigE PHYs

Interconnect Support of 400 Gbps Attachment Unit interfaces for chip-to-chip and chip-to-module applications

Five Key Drivers for 400 GigE

Applications Driving Need for 400 GigE

Technology Issues for 400 GigE

• 400 GigE will ultimately be based on an n x 100 Gbps format, while recent IEEE Ethernets have been based on a n x 10 Gbps format. This presents technical challenges

• The CFP that evolved for 100 GigE will most probably find a role in 400 GigE too. But a new MSA for 400 GigE is already appearing and it would be no surprise to see other MSAs appear too.

• While NRZ is a very stable technology, there is a strong consensus that it won’t do as we move beyond the second generation 400 GigE. Third Eventually 400 GigE will most probably use PAM-4 for signal modulation.

• Copper will have a minimal role in 400 GigE, beyond some limited interconnect applications

• FEC is likely to play an important role in the evolution of 400 GigE standards and technologists developing the 400 Gbps can draw to some extent on the fairly mature. However, there is no consensus on any specific FEC techniques or designs.

Ten Companies to Watch in 400 GigE

Plausible Market Growth Scenario for 400 GigE Port Revenues

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Market Value ($ Million)

Other Related CIR Reports

• Revenue Opportunities For Optical Interconnects: Market And Technology Forecast – 2013-2020-Vol I

• Revenue Opportunities For Optical Interconnects:market And Technology Forecast - 2013 To 2020 Vol II

• Active Optical Cabling Markets: 2013 And Beyond

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