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In today’s business environment, there is constant need to look for new opportunities. The risk of doing business as usual means failure. How can we take advantage of new emerging technologies? We get overload of new products and services, but it is not easy to see the real trends. In this lecture we look at how to spot trends and how to recognize shift in people’s behaviour. We also explore some tactics we can apply to find new business models.
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Lecture L10 LOOKING FOR OPPORTUNITIES
...a kind of shadow future, hovering on the edges of
the present state of things, a map of all the ways in
which the present can reinvent itself
Steven Johnson
Adjacent Possible
Why is IBM still alive and thriving after so long, in an industry characterised perhaps more than any other by innovation and change?
Economist: 1100100 and counting
Case Study
Tabulating machinesElectronic machinesMainframesMini-computersPC computers
Economist: 1100100 and counting
Platform Shifts
Economist: 1100100 and counting
Platform Shifts
“IBM is not a technology company, but a company
solving business problems using technology”– George Colony
Economist: 1100100 and counting
Platform Shifts
Economist: 1100100 and counting
Platform Shifts
1. Maintain connection to customers!2. Less hierarchical and more open!3. Business relevant research!4. Globally integrated!5. Financial planning – get out of
commoditized business
Economist: 1100100 and counting
Platform Shifts
Innovator’s Dilemma
Firms that succeed in one generation of innovation almost inevitable become hamstrung by their own success and thus doomed to lose out in the next wave of innovation
Disrupting
How can we take advantage of the opportunities technology change offer?
Theories of InnovationsAdjacent possibleLiquid networkSlow hunchSerendipityMoore’s LawThe Law of Accelerating ReturnsTechnology S-Curve
Kondratiev Wave Technology Adoption Life Cycle Diffusion of Innovation Disruptive Innovation Theory The Resources, Processes and Values Theory
How can we use these tools to forecast how i n f o r m a t i o n t e c h n o l o g y is evolving?
Opportunity
Opportunity
Processing Power Bandwidth Storage
What technology do we have
2020?
Opportunity
Processing Power 18M
Bandwidth 24M
Storage 12M
Growth rate
POWER
TIME
2000 2010
iMac iPhoneMac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB MemoryScreen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
iOS 4.0 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB MemoryScreen - 614K pixels Storage - 32GB Flash Drive
Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple
2010 2020
iPhone phone?Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB MemoryScreen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
30 times faster
Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple
?
2010 2020
iPhone phone?Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB MemoryScreen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple
?
OS ??? 15.000 MHz, 4GB MemoryScreen – 24.000K pixelsStorage – 1TB Hard Drive
2010 2020
iPhone phone?Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB MemoryScreen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple
OS ??? 15.000 MHz, 4GB MemoryScreen – 24.000K pixelsStorage – 1TB Hard Drive
http://www.truthaboutfiber.com/FTTHArticles_bandwidth_growth.cfm
1Gbit
2015 2020
10Gbit
Global total of data generated is approching one zettabyte
1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10
Prize per Gigabyte
1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10 2020 — $0.00009
Prize per Gigabyte
1981 — $300,000 1987 — $50,000 1990 — $10,000 1994 — $1000 1997 — $100 2000 — $10 2004 — $1 2010 — $0.10 2020 — $0.00009
Prize per Gigabyte
FREE
Supercomputer
Cray 2 1985
Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
Apple iPad 2 2011
Will this be in your pocket in few years?
With 15.000 Mhz, terabytes in storage, 10+ Gbps,
what new applications can you build?
Discussion
How do we spot opportunities?
Looking for Opportunities
“I never predict. I just look out the window and see
what is visible – but not yet seen.”
!
Peter Drucker
Establish a trend point
Tracking Technology Trends
Tracking Technology Trends“Remove” the technology and find the value.What does this mean?
Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 a.m. to check his work e-mail and
his Facebook and Twitter accounts. The two boys, Cole and Erik, start each morning with text messages,
video games and Facebook.
Today, Mr. Gude wakes at around 6 a.m. to check messages from work, get news from his friends and see
what others are recommending. The two boys, Cole and Erik, start each
morning communicating with friends, playing games and getting
news form their friends.
NORMAL REMOVE THE TECHNOLOGY
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Looking for Opportunities
Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption!!
“Good-enough” can be great!!
Do what competitors won’t
Looking for Opportunities
Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
Removes barriers that constrain the ability to consume !
Overshooting customers needs !
Hidden beauty in undesirable or invisible markets
Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume
Example: photography
Kodak’s Brownie Camera
Skill
Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume
Skill Example: Computers
Apple’s iPad
Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume
Wealth Example: Computing
The Personal Computer
Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume
Access Example: Telephony
Mobile phones
Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume
Access Example: Niche movies
Youtube LegoStar wars
Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume
Time Example: Auction
Ebay auction
Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume
Time
Remove barriers that constrain the ability to consume
1. Creating a Computer Game for mobile
What is the barrier for these:
4. Health Care
5. University level education
2. Making an Music Album
3. Publishing a Novel
6. Rent your house
Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
Make the complicated simple
Don’t let the mainstream derail you
Innovate, don’t force
Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
Nintendo Wii
Targeting overshot customers or non-consumption
Portable music players disrupted by Apple, 2001
1000 songs in you pocket!
Mobile phone, 2007
Apple reinvents the phone
“Good-enough” can be great
Sustainable innovations compete on getting better !
Disruptive innovations compete on doing it dif ferent ly
“Good-enough” can be great
Do what competitors won’t
Unattractive or uninteresting market !
Does not seek head-on collision with established competitors !
Personal Computers
Do what competitors won’t
Do what competitors won’t
CRM as a Service
Find a job to be done
People don’t want to buy a drill, they need a hole
Why is it so difficult to forecast technology trends?
Forecasting
A
B
Disruption and Forecasting Errors
Disruption and Forecasting Errors
RADAR
008070 10 90Computers !Operation System Owners Users !Killer App. !!Abstractions !Comm. !Big players !HCI !
IBM IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP Intel Many vendors Many devices
Built-in Unix, VMS, CMP DOS Windows JVM, CLR
Governments Corporation Small business Homes Public
Priests Specialists Educated people Public
Homemade Customized Word processing Communication Business Apps Business Apps Spreadsheets Media Entertainment
None Languages Operating systems Software Services
None TCP/IP HTTP Web Services Agents
IBM IBM, DEC Microsoft Google, Yahoo!
Trend Lines
Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse Touch, voice
IBM IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP Intel Many vendors Many devices
Built-in Unix, VMS, CMP DOS Windows JVM, CLR
Governments Corporation Small business Homes Public
Priests Specialists Educated people Public
Homemade Customized Word processing Communication Business Apps Business Apps Spreadsheets Media Entertainment
None Languages Operating systems Software Services
None TCP/IP HTTP Web Services Agents
IBM IBM, DEC Microsoft Google, Yahoo!
Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse Touch, voice
109080 20 00Computers !Operation System Owners Users !Killer App. !!Abstractions !Comm. !Big players !HCI !
Trend Lines
?
IBM IBM, DEC, Vax, PDP Intel Many vendors Many devices
Built-in Unix, VMS, CMP DOS Windows JVM, CLR
Governments Corporation Small business Homes Public
Priests Specialists Educated people Public
Homemade Customized Word processing Communication Business Apps Business Apps Spreadsheets Media Entertainment
None Languages Operating systems Software Services
None TCP/IP HTTP Web Services Agents
IBM IBM, DEC Microsoft Google, Yahoo!
Tapes, cards Keyboards Mouse Touch, voice
109080 20 00Computers !Operation System Owners Users !Killer App. !!Abstractions !Comm. !Big players !HCI !
Trend LinesInvisible
!Invisible Browser
!Everyone
with many +
Machines !
Games +
Same !
APIs !!
Software bots
New players !
+ Gestures !!
DisruptingTargeting overshot customers or non-consumption !
“Good-enough” can be great !
Do what competitors won’t
