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Multiparty Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza! David Evans mightBeEvil.org University of Virginia Microsoft Research Applied Multiparty Computation 21 February 2014 1

Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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Applied Multi-Party Computation Microsoft Research, Redmond 21 February 2014 Multi-Party Computation in 2014, 1999, 1984, and 1969 Where should secure computation be in 2029? Decreasing costs of secure computation Making Predictions "Sending Faxes on the Beach" vs. "Making the WoldWideWeb" Introducing "Dori-Mic and the Universal Machine!"

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Page 1: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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Multiparty Computation in 2029:Boom, Bust, or Bonanza!

David EvansmightBeEvil.orgUniversity of VirginiaMicrosoft Research Applied Multiparty Computation21 February 2014

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Why 2029?

Page 3: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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Why 15 years?

Page 5: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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PODC '97

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MPC in 2014

2014

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MPC in 1999

20141999

Page 8: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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PODC 1997

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MPC in 1984

201419991984

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MPC in 1969

2014199919841969

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Non-free NOR gate (from Apollo Guidance Computer)

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Where should multiparty computation

be in 2029?

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US Government Investment in MPC

NSF: ~$25MDARPA: ~$25MAFOSR: ~$15MIARPA, NSA: ?

National Endowment for the Arts$130M/year

$100M?

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US Government Investment in MPC

NSF: ~$25MDARPA: ~$25MAFOSR: ~$15MIARPA, NSA: ?

$100M?

Virginia Snow Removal Last Week> $100M

Page 15: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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“Acceptable” Result (for “Us”)

interesting intellectual problems

some significant papers

students get good jobs

Photo credit: Benny Pinkas

Page 16: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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“Acceptable” Result (for Taxpayers)

Multi-billion dollar industry

Photo credit: Benny Pinkas

Things that make everyday life better

Page 17: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

Where should multiparty computation

be in 2029?

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Page 18: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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Claim #1

Secure multi-party computation industry should be bigger than

malware industry in 2029.

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20122014

20162018

20202022

20242026

2028$ 0B

$ 50B

$ 100B

$ 150B

$ 200B

$ 250B

$ 300B

Worldwide IT Security Market: ~$70B/year,growing 8.7%/year[Gartner]

projected continued 8.7% growth

Microsof

t

Page 20: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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20122013

20142015

20162017

20182019

20202021

20222023

20242025

20262027

20282029

$ 0B

$ 50B

$ 100B

$ 150B

$ 200B

$ 250B

$ 300B

Worldwide IT Security Market: ~$70B/year,growing 8.7%/year[Gartner]

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Claim #2

High cost is no longer the main impediment to widespread use of secure (two-party) computation.

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(De)Motivating Application:

“Genetic Dating”

AliceBob

Genome Compatibility Protocol

Your offspring will have good immune systems!

Your offspring will have good immune systems!

WARNING! Don’t Reproduce

WARNING!Don’t Reproduce

Page 23: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

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Progress in MPC!

19991984

1982

Millionaires’ Problem

Genetic D

ating

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Cost to sequence genome“Moore’s Law”

Aug 2001

Mar 2002

Oct 2002

May 2003

Dec 2003

Jul 2004

Feb 2005

Sep 2005

Apr 2006

Nov 2006

Jun 2007

Jan 2008

Aug 2008

Mar 2009

Oct 2009

May 2010

Dec 2010

Jul 2011

Feb 2012

Sep 2012

Apr 2013

Nov 2013

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$10,000,000

$100,000,000

Page 27: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

Aug 2001

Mar 2002

Oct 2002

May 2003

Dec 2003

Jul 2004

Feb 2005

Sep 2005

Apr 2006

Nov 2006

Jun 2007

Jan 2008

Aug 2008

Mar 2009

Oct 2009

May 2010

Dec 2010

Jul 2011

Feb 2012

Sep 2012

Apr 2013

Nov 2013

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$10,000,000

$100,000,000

Cost to sequence genome“Moore’s Law”

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Page 28: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

Aug 2001

Mar 2002

Oct 2002

May 2003

Dec 2003

Jul 2004

Feb 2005

Sep 2005

Apr 2006

Nov 2006

Jun 2007

Jan 2008

Aug 2008

Mar 2009

Oct 2009

May 2010

Dec 2010

Jul 2011

Feb 2012

Sep 2012

Apr 2013

Nov 2013

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$10,000,000

$100,000,000

Fairp

lay

[MN

PS 2

004]

Free

XO

R [K

S 20

08]

Pipe

linin

g, e

tc.

[HEK

M 2

011]

[SZ

2013

]

JustGarble [BHKR 2013]

From $100M to $0.001 in less than a decade!

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Page 29: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

29Aug 2

001

Mar 2002

Oct 2002

May 2003

Dec 2003

Jul 2004

Feb 2005

Sep 2005

Apr 2006

Nov 2006

Jun 2007

Jan 2008

Aug 2008

Mar 2009

Oct 2009

May 2010

Dec 2010

Jul 2011

Feb 2012

Sep 2012

Apr 2013

Nov 2013

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$10,000,000

$100,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$10,000,000,000

$100,000,000,000

Page 30: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

Aug 2001

Mar 2002

Oct 2002

May 2003

Dec 2003

Jul 2004

Feb 2005

Sep 2005

Apr 2006

Nov 2006

Jun 2007

Jan 2008

Aug 2008

Mar 2009

Oct 2009

May 2010

Dec 2010

Jul 2011

Feb 2012

Sep 2012

Apr 2013

Nov 2013

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$10,000,000

$100,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$10,000,000,000

$100,000,000,000 Active Security

From $80B to $0.005 in less than a decade!

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Page 31: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

Costs that Still MatterMany Parties: costs for > 3 parties are still way

off the charts (and interesting applications need millions of parties)

Energy: MPC requires 10,000x (?) energy of unencrypted computation– Data centers today ~5M homes

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Page 32: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

Things That Really MatterUnderstanding what outputs leak

Embedding auditing? Privacy models?Meaningful end-user value

How do I trust the client code?(Human) cost to build MPC systems

Easy integration/separation with standard computation

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Claim #3

We don’t yet know what the “killer app” for MPC is.*

* Maybe we will after the Business Case panel today!

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Claim #3

We don’t yet know what the “killer app” for MPC is and its

probably not privacy.

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Det er svært at spå, især om fremtiden.

Robert Storm Petersen

It is difficult to predict, especially about the future

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Theory vs. Practice

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My New Theory of Computation

Book!

Page 40: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

plug book

A Tragicomic Tale of Combinatorics and

Computabilityfor Curious Children of

All AgesIllustrations by Kim Dylla

Page 41: Multi-Party Computation in 2029: Boom, Bust, or Bonanza?

“If only I had this book when I was a young student, I might have done something useful with my life like discover a new complexity class instead of dropping out and wasting my life flipping pancakes, playing with basic blocks, and eradicating polo.”

Gill Bates, Founder of Mic-Soft Corporation

dori-mic.org

MiniLEGO [FJNNO 2013]

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Finding the “killer app” for MPC…

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“sending faxes from the beach”

“tucking your baby in from a phone booth”

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WorldWideWeb[Berners-Lee 1990]

multi-touch, pressure interface

[Negroponte 1984]

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David [email protected]

MightBeEvil.comdori-mic.org