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David Nixon: • Making games professionally since 1989 • Worked in hardcore, casual, social, mobile • Shipped hundreds of games • Passion for Eastern European devs • Co-Founder “Gemini Hive Inc.”
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The Next Big Thing
Saturday, May 19, 12
My Profile
• Making games professionally since 1989
• Worked in hardcore, casual, social, mobile
• Shipped hundreds of games
• Passion for Eastern European devs
• Co-Founder “Gemini Hive Inc.”
Saturday, May 19, 12
Thank You Nekki!
Video, images and logos (c) Nekki, 2012
Saturday, May 19, 12
Bullet Points• Games are no longer the most used apps!
• 1,000,000 New Smartphone installs daily, Android is CRUSHING
• “Gold rush” to mobile
• Free 2 Play might be winning the monetization race
• Platform agnosticism is becoming a religion
• Big companies spending Big $ to solve the “Discovery Problem”
• New ideas, use cases, tech keeps coming
Saturday, May 19, 12
Battle for “time spent”Another category of apps gives us a run for our money
Saturday, May 19, 12
Mobile Social Networking!
Saturday, May 19, 12
Tough Competition
• 5 Major players - 2,000,000,000 people
• FB/Instagram - $1,000,000,000 is alot of green
• FB IPO - $16,000,000,000 is a TON of green
• GREE, Mixi, DeNA, Tencent blanket Asia with nearly 600,000,000 users and all these co’s are tight with the carriers
Saturday, May 19, 12
The “Silver Lining”
• Total minutes are up (77 vs 68)
• SN’s are strong enablers for game features
• SN introduce and habituate device features
• Natural partnerships / overlap
• Money to burn
Saturday, May 19, 12
The Smartphone Revolution is upon us
Unless you’ve been asleep for 2 years, this shouldn’t be a surprise to you
Saturday, May 19, 12
• 100,000,000+ US smartphone gamers
• 10 BILLION by 2020
“Smart Device” Growth
Saturday, May 19, 12
It’s global• Growth in every
major market
• Half of predicted consumption growthi is in Asia
• Freemium helps confront piracy problems
Saturday, May 19, 12
IoS vs. Android
• 2x growth in 2012• Ipad still dominates
tablets market
• Pro - 5x growth in 2012• Con - Fragmentation• Is Galaxy Note a phone
or a tablet?
Saturday, May 19, 12
Rise of Android
850,000!!(device activations per day)
Saturday, May 19, 12
Android Fragmentation 1
Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/
Saturday, May 19, 12
Android Fragmentation 2
Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/
Saturday, May 19, 12
?Saturday, May 19, 12
Never count MS out.
They do s*** like this.
HTC Titan -- $0.01
Saturday, May 19, 12
Devs rush to mobileLike crazed lemmings...
(but maybe you’re this guy?)
Saturday, May 19, 12
Big social companies moving to Mobile
Zynga, wooga, 6waves, King.com, Crowdstar, Disney...
Saturday, May 19, 12
[Browser] Social Maturity
• Maturity = harder to succeed from standing start
• Fighting over scraps
• Park research suggests “exit or sell” in Social
Saturday, May 19, 12
We ‘Midcore’
Saturday, May 19, 12
If you are considering a switch to mobile, you are not alone, and you game better be...
Bottom line...
Saturday, May 19, 12
Free-2-Play...yay or nay?Some wise-ass subtitle
Saturday, May 19, 12
Free 2 Play Economics
• % of Mau paying - 3.5%-10% conversion
• ARPDAU = $.04 - $.05
• $8 - $15/mo ARPPU
• In game purchases are ~55% of total game revenue
• 90% of games spending is F2P today
Saturday, May 19, 12
Free 2 Play Lifecycle 1
Saturday, May 19, 12
Free 2 Play Lifecycle 2
Saturday, May 19, 12
F2P Realities
• F2P is expensive, time consuming, and hard
• It requires constant and ongoing attention
• There is a steep learning curve
• Experience with service-based F2P games (such as online-social) is a major advantage
• When it works, it works really, really well
Saturday, May 19, 12
Platform SchmatformWho cares, just let me play!
Saturday, May 19, 12
• 50%+ consumers play mobile games to extend/continue their gameplay experience from other platforms (newzoo)
• Players & Designers thinking less about platform and more about unified UEX
• Middleware providing roads to both technical and marketing access to many platforms
Platform Agnosticism
Saturday, May 19, 12
Dude, where’s my app?Distribution & Discover
Saturday, May 19, 12
Appstore Evolution
• Google Android Marketplace and renames it “Google Play”
• Facebook Launches Appstore
• Zynga appstore?
Saturday, May 19, 12
Customer Acquisition(It’s complicated)
Saturday, May 19, 12
Download Motivations
• Americans go by price
• Russians rely on friends and download new releases
• Know what motivates your audience when picking your strategy & partners Newzoo Trend Report | Mobile Games | March 2012
Reasons to download mobile games. Russians rely on friends, Americans go for price (2011).
games market research
© 2012 Newzoo | www.newzoo.com | 12
Source: 2011 Newzoo Consumer Research | Newzoo Data Explorer
Gamesindustry.com/blog Aggregated market data
& investment news Smartly tagged
Gamesindustry.com B2B market place >400 companies Free to list your company
Newzoo Free Services in 2012
Saturday, May 19, 12
The Bleeding EdgeNew Tech Game-Changers
Saturday, May 19, 12
mmm....Ice Cream Sandwich
• Android 4.0 is finally rolling out
• Impacts phones more than tablets
• It’s a much better user experience
• Fixes some annoying technical issues
• Double-edged fragmentation grenade
Saturday, May 19, 12
• Feature limited
• Browser performance concerns
• Not useful on Android < 4.0
• But - wow - when it works...it’s really cool
• Possible game-changer for certain types of games
Saturday, May 19, 12
Connected Screens
Saturday, May 19, 12
Thank YouDavid Nixon, [email protected]
Don’t forget to play Vector for Online & Mobile!
Saturday, May 19, 12
Payor Demographic NotesMobile game payors could be women or men (slightly more likely to be men) and 10 - 35 y/o
Asian players are 2x more likely to pay!
Saturday, May 19, 12
Design Challenges Today’s mobile devices are feature-rich
Saturday, May 19, 12
Anatomy of a Smartphone
Saturday, May 19, 12
Design
• Multitouch
• Spotty internet connection
• Location services
• To tilt or not to tilt
• Cameras
Saturday, May 19, 12