Miller - Space Science - Spring Review 2013

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution 15 February 2013

Integrity Service Excellence

Dr. Kent Miller

Program Officer

AFOSR/RTB

Air Force Research Laboratory

05 March 2013

SPACE SCIENCE

2 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution

2013 AFOSR SPRING REVIEW 3001I Space Science Portfolio Overview

NAME: Dr. Kent Miller

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF PORTFOLIO: Specifying and forecasting the geospace environment of

Earth, extending from the Sun to the Earth’s upper

atmosphere, for Situational Awareness and for Space

Control

SUB-AREAS IN PORTFOLIO:

Solar and Heliospheric Physics Magnetospheric Physics

Ionospheric and Thermospheric Physics


Why the Air Force interest in Space Sciences?

Space Weather

Space Weather

effects include:

• satellite drag

• radiation belt perturbations

• communication/

navigation/

surveillance


Contacts in Other Funding Agencies

Agency POC Science Area

NSF Rich Behnke et al. Solar/Terrestrial Relations,

Magnetospheric Physics,

Aeronomy, Cubesats

ONR Scott Budzien Neutral atmosphere and

ionosphere

NOAA TBD Space Weather predictions

NASA Madhulika Guhathakurta Heliophysics (Sun to Earth)

NRO Dave Byers Remote sensing of the

geospace environment

“The DOD’s DURIP has been the single most important activity, with sustained impact,

upon the infrastructure at US universities for state-of-the-art training of the next

generation of space scientists and engineers.”

-- Professor Michael Mendillo, Center for Space Physics, Boston University


Space Science: Overview

Thermosphere/

Ionosphere

Magnetosphere/

Radiation Belts

Solar Physics


The Solar Drivers

Solar flares:

X rays from solar

flares hit Earth in

8 minutes

Energetic

Particles

CMEs

Reach Earth in 15 min

to 24 hours

Reach Earth in 1 to

4 days

STEREO - A

WSA-ENLIL Model: Solar Wind Speed

15 February 2013 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution


PI: W. Cao, NJ Institute of Technology

First Light Observation

with the NIRIS (2012 DURIP)

SDO Image NIRIS He-I NIRIS L-O-S Magnetogram


Adaptive Optics with the Big Bear

Solar Observatory New Solar Telescope

Image

obtained

with 357

actuator

deformable

mirror.

Center of

field has

0”.05 (~20

miles)

resolution :

Diffraction

limited

imaging.

PI: P. Goode, NJ Institute of Technology


Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric

Flux Transport (ADAPT) Model

Motivation: The global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution serves as

primary input to all coronal and solar wind models.

Approach: ADAPT adds rigorous data assimilation methods developed at Los

Alamos to the Nat’l Solar Observatory (NSO) solar photospheric magnetic field

flux transport model.

AFOSR

Star

Team!

Result: Improved, high quality “snapshots” of the Sun’s global magnetic

field used as key input to solar models

PI: N. Arge, AFRL/RVB


Modeling Coronal Hole Evolution

Open

Closed

New Active Region

7/14 /2010, 19:41 UT Open/Closed Field Regions, PFSS*

Br and Field Lines PFSS

STEREO B 195Å

PI: J. Linker, Predictive Science Inc.

Use ADAPT to predict the magnetic flux on the Sun, including an

active region.

The flux-evolved map provides a good prediction of the coronal hole

evolution *PFSS = Potential Field Source Surface model


Physics of Solar Flares: Developing Models for Forecasting

Goal: to determine if CMEs are associated with solar flares. The project has:

(1) automated derivation of flare characteristics

(2) catalog/classified the flares

(3) used flare characteristics in a Multivariate Discriminant

Analysis to diagnose flaring probability

Goal is to associate the evolution of flare “bright points”

with coronal mass ejections. PI: S. Balasubramaniam, AFRL/RVB


SRAG MAG4 Forecast Tool

Active region in upper-left

corner produced a Solar

Energetic Particle event and

geo-effective CME.

For each active region a

free-energy proxy is

measured and converted

empirically into a predicted

event rate.

Forecasts are made daily,

and posted at

http://www.uah.edu/cspar/research/mag4-page

PI: D. Falconer, U. Alabama


FY13 Basic Research Initiative

*IMF = interplanetary magnetic field

Understanding the Interaction of

Coronal Mass Ejections with the

Solar-Terrestrial Environment

PMs: Kent Miller and John Luginsland

Objectives:

1 – Improving forecasting and/or observing the IMF* orientation within

the CME;

2 – Coupling CME Models to solar and magnetosphere models;

3- Developing new observation and data processing techniques for

CMEs, developing data assimilation capabilities, and coupling new

CME/solar wind data into models

Controversy The leading predictions for the

amplitude of Sunspot Cycle 24

are widely divergent.

Nature, May & June 2006

New Scientist (2006); Sky & Telescope (2007)

Dikpati et al. (2006)

Svalgaard, Cliver & Kamide (2005)

Latest (January 2013) NASA Prediction: 69 in Fall, 2013

Slide from the AFOSR Spring Review - 2008

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A – Unclassified, Unlimited Distribution



Thermosphere/

Ionosphere

Magnetosphere/

Radiation Belts

Solar Physics


Radiation Belt Dynamics

Numerical simulation

• Drift-diffusion model

• Diffusion attributable to VLF

waves radiated by the Naval

Communication Station

Harold E. Holt (call sign

NWC) in western Australia.

PI: J. Albert, AFRL/RVB

DEMETER satellite data:

Intensity of radiation belt

electrons precipitating into the

atmosphere, as a function of

energy E and location L.



Thermosphere/

Ionosphere

Magnetosphere/

Radiation Belts

Solar Physics


Scintillations and Satellite Drag


Observing campaigns are underway at Jicamarca, Peru to measure

plasma drifts, densities, temperatures, and composition simultaneously

along with wide- and narrow-beam irregularity imaging.

The campaign is one of the most complicated ever run at Jicamarca.

Goal: model forecast assessment, leading to near real-time ESF

forecasting. PI: D. Hysell, Cornell U.

Real time ESF forecasting

Simulation from Cornell U. model of ESF generation/ evolution


Longitudinal Distribution of

Equatorial Plasma Bubbles

PI: E. Kassie, Boston College

Bubble climatologies:

- Bubbles are more active

throughout the year in the

African region, especially

in the dusk sector.

- Strong seasonal

differences, such as dawn

bubbles are stronger in

May through August,

while dusk bubbles are

stronger at equinoxes


Possible Seeding of Bubbles by convective activity

Convectively active

regions over South

America shown by blue

color in maps of infrared

emissions (left column of

panels)

ESF (ionograms, right

column of panels) appears

to be correlated with

appearance of convective

activity

PI: R. Tsunoda, SRI Inc.


Multi-scale nested simulations of ionospheric

density disturbances in Equatorial Spread F

Objective: high resolution

modeling of multi-scale

ionospheric dynamics over

a limited spatial range in

altitude, latitude and

longitude

Accomplishments:

Novel implicit relaxation

computational techniques

for use in nested

mesocale/microscale

ionospheric models

PI: A. Mahalov, Arizona State U.


Optical Images show the locations of these two

boundaries and thus where radio wave disruption

locations may occur across the eastern USA.

Radio Propagation Disruptions (e.g. amplitude

scintillations) occur in two distinct regions of

the sub-auroral ionosphere.

Use of DURIP Imager to specify Auroral

Space Weather Disruption Zones

Diffuse

Aurora

SAR Arc

PI: M. Mendillo, Boston U.


First Ever 3-D Image of Internal Structure of Polar Cap Patch

Resolute Bay IS radar

OMTI red and green channels overlaid

PI: J. Semeter, Boston U.


NADIR: Neutral Atmosphere Density

Interdisciplinary Research

Focus Areas:

I. Scales of Density Variability, Winds, and Drag Prediction

II. Internal Processes and Thermosphere-Ionosphere Coupling

III. Energy Partitioning at High latitudes and Density

Implications

IV. Wave Forcing from the Lower Atmosphere

V. Forecasting Geomagnetic Activity

VI. Forecasting Solar EUV/UV Radiation

VII. Driver-Response Relationships

VIII. Satellite Drag in the Re-entry Region

U

Colorado

USAFA


Transition-ready Physics-Based

Thermosphere-Ionosphere Models

Over the course of the NADIR MURI the

accuracy of the CTIPe* physics-based

model has improved and can now match

and sometimes exceed the neutral density

from empirical models for satellite drag.

RMSE= 0.20

RMSE= 0.09 GRACE

*CTIPe = Coupled thermosphere ionosphere

plasmasphere extended model

PI: T. Fuller-Rowell,

U. Colorado-Boulder

CHAMP


Atmospheric Lunar Tide Adds

Significant Satellite Drag Variability

….and that

variability is

predictable

2007-2010 Averages

Lunar Tide from GRACE orbit has a period

of 13.56 days

recurrent

geomagnetic

activity

lunar tide

360 km

480 km

PI: J. Forbes, U. Colorado-Boulder


Thermospheric Overcooling During

Some Intense Geomagnetic Storms

Why do some

geomagnetic storms

produce lower than

expected neutral

density upheaval?

.

The reduction in neutral

density is caused by

excess particle deposition

in the upper atmosphere,

producing nitric oxide.

Nitric oxide is an efficient

IR radiator that rapidly

cools and contracts the

upper atmosphere.

PI: D. Knipp, U. Colorado


Test prediction that Lanthanide metals spontaneously

form dense, long-lived artificial plasma when released into

the upper atmosphere

Mitigation Strategies:

Metal Oxide Space Clouds (MOSC)

Quickly Reacts

with Ambient

Atomic Oxygen

Expelled

Sm Metal

Vapor

Sm

Sm

Sm

Sm

Sm

- -

- -

-

-

- -

Sm

Sm

Sm

-

-

Sm SmO+

SmO+

SmO+

SmO+

SmO+ SmO+

SmO+

SmO+

And

Spontaneously

Ionizes

To form dense

long-lived

SmO+ plasma

Terrier-Improved

Orion Sounding

Rocket

O O

O O

O O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

O

Predicted artificial

density after 1

hour:

108/cc

Typical natural

density:

106/cc

A few kg of metal vapor potentially dwarfs the

natural ionosphere over areas up to 100 km across

PI: T. Pedersen, AFRL/RVB

AFOSR

Star

Team!


Mitigaton Strategies:

Creation of ionosphere layers

*HAARP = High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program

PI: C. Fallen, U. Alaska, YIP

Descending 557.7 nm “green-line” airglow with

UHF radar ion line indicates ionosphere electron

acceleration and creation of new ionization

Optics

Radar

60 km

[Fallen, PhD thesis 2010] adapted from [Pedersen et al., GRL 2010]

What is the

mechanism or

mechanisms

responsible

for the

ionization?

Estimating the

HF-accelerated

energetic

electron

distributions

needed to create

the observed

airglow and

ionization is a

fundamental

step


Physics of the Geospace Response

to Powerful HF Radio Waves

PI: E. Mishin, AFRL/RVB

First evidence of

F2-region

atmospheric

gravity waves

generated by HF

heating from

HAARP observed

by the CHAMP

and GRACE

satellites

CHAMP

GRACE


FY13 MURI: A New Paradigm in Sources and Physics of High-Power Ionospheric Modification

Bring together physicists and engineers from:

Space science

Ionospheric modification

Plasma modeling

High power microwave source

Examine the question of coupling

electromagnetic energy to the ionosphere

Develop technology for a mobile source

PMs: John Luginsland and Kent Miller


Wrap Up: Trends / Emphasis

Focus on projects that enable predictive capabilities for

* solar activity

* neutral thermospheric densities

* scintillations and ionospheric irregularities

Maintain projects investigating the radiation belts

Decreased support for thermosphere/ionosphere

projects that do not address neutral densities or

ionospheric scintillations.


Questions?


(Some) Challenges to Progress

in Space Sciences Challenge Opportunity? Pursuing?

Construction of

“Sun to mud”

predictive model

Need for such a model is obvious.

However, cross-scale coupling is a huge

challenge. Funding is difficult, particularly

in current climate.

Discussions with other

agencies and community

leaders.

Predicting solar

eruptive events

(flares and

CMEs)

STEREO, Hinode, and SDO are providing

extensive datasets and new insights.

Assimilative models are evolving,

complemented by numerical MHD models

and lab investigations.

About 1/3 of portfolio is

invested in solar physics,

with strong ties with

personnel in RV. Ongoing

collaboration with the

National Solar Observatory.


(Some) Challenges to Progress

in Space Sciences Challenge Opportunity? Pursuing?

Predicting

ionospheric

irregularities.

C/NOFS plus GPS and TEC databases are

providing much new information and

opportunities for assimilative models.

Advances in computation and identification

of important physical processes such as

gravity waves are contributing much to the

goal.

Discussions with other

agency representatives are

ongoing, particularly with

NSF and NOAA/SWPC.

Forecasting

neutral densities

1-3 days ahead

Recent satellites CHAMP, GRACE, and

RAIDS are providing extensive datasets on

neutral densities*

FY07 MURI is in final year.

Significant contributions in

solar activity effects, wave

effects, drag coefficients.

Transitioning results in

collaboration with RVB.

Coupling

thermosphere/

ionosphere to

magnetosphere

Has not achieved high visibility or critical

mass. Limited funding .

Minor; through individual

PIs. NSF leads on this

topic; collaborate with them.