Using bioclimatic envelope modelling to Using bioclimatic envelope modelling to incorporate spatial and temporal incorporate spatial and temporal dynamics of climate change into dynamics of climate change into

conservation planningconservation planning

ByByNancy-Anne RoseNancy-Anne Rose

NRES MSc CandidateNRES MSc CandidateDecember 14, 2010December 14, 2010

Introduction - Climate change Introduction - Climate change impacts on biodiversityimpacts on biodiversity

Expected to change Expected to change the distribution of the distribution of speciesspecies

Face extinction, adapt Face extinction, adapt migrate migrate

Reorganization of Reorganization of current ecological current ecological communities into of communities into of new assemblagesnew assemblages

The problem for biodiversity The problem for biodiversity conservation planning:conservation planning:

Existing parks and protected areas may no Existing parks and protected areas may no longer be able to support the species, habitats longer be able to support the species, habitats and values for which they were designated.and values for which they were designated.

Can we use existing inventories and climate Can we use existing inventories and climate projection tools to identify candidate areas with projection tools to identify candidate areas with better prospect for stability … for “connectivity” better prospect for stability … for “connectivity” over time?over time?

B.C. parks and B.C. parks and protected areas protected areas

networknetwork

Alpine Tundra: 24%Alpine Tundra: 24%

Bunchgrass: 11%Bunchgrass: 11%

Coastal Douglas Fir: 5%Coastal Douglas Fir: 5%

Interior Cedar Hemlock: 36%Interior Cedar Hemlock: 36%

Ponderosa Pine: 0%Ponderosa Pine: 0%

Sub-boreal Pine Spruce: 0%Sub-boreal Pine Spruce: 0%

Montane Spruce: 13%Montane Spruce: 13%

Sub-boreal Willow: 67%Sub-boreal Willow: 67%

Nature Conservancy of Canada - Nature Conservancy of Canada - Ecoregional Assessment of the Central Ecoregional Assessment of the Central

Interior EcoregionInterior Ecoregion

http://science.natureconservancy.ca/centralinterior/central.php

Research ObjectivesResearch Objectives

Evaluate the likely persistence Evaluate the likely persistence (continuity) of conservation targets (continuity) of conservation targets under climate changeunder climate change

To identify geographical priorities in To identify geographical priorities in the development of the Nature the development of the Nature Conservancy of Canada’s Central Conservancy of Canada’s Central Interior conservation planInterior conservation plan

Bioclimatic envelope modellingBioclimatic envelope modelling

• Based on a set of suitable climate conditions defined by target-specific physiological tolerances

• Conceptual underpinnings in Hutchinson’s niche theory

• A conceptual space occupied by a target

• Multidimensional axes are described by environmental factors

• hypervolume

Botrychium crenulatumCrenulate Moonwort

Developmental ToolsDevelopmental Tools ClimateBC - climate interpolation and general ClimateBC - climate interpolation and general

circulation model (GCM) downscaling toolcirculation model (GCM) downscaling tool Generates 19 climate variables but to reduce Generates 19 climate variables but to reduce

collinearity onlycollinearity only• MAT – mean annual temperature, MAT – mean annual temperature, ºCºC• TD – continentality (seasonality), TD – continentality (seasonality), ºCºC• AH:M – annual heat moisture index (ratio)AH:M – annual heat moisture index (ratio)• PAS – precipitation as snow, mmPAS – precipitation as snow, mm

33rdrd generation of the Canadian GCM “business as generation of the Canadian GCM “business as usual” (CGCM3 A2) usual” (CGCM3 A2)

4 timeslices (baseline, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s)4 timeslices (baseline, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s) ArcMap 9.2 GIS softwareArcMap 9.2 GIS software

Methods - Methods - Development of Development of bioclimatic envelopesbioclimatic envelopes

Compile information on current distribution Compile information on current distribution (latitude, longitude, elevation) (latitude, longitude, elevation) 103 biogeoclimatic variants 103 biogeoclimatic variants 30 terrestrial ecological units 30 terrestrial ecological units 73 plant species 73 plant species

Run through ClimateBC to generate climate data Run through ClimateBC to generate climate data for current distributionfor current distribution

Determine the 5Determine the 5thth and 95 and 95thth percentiles for MAT, percentiles for MAT, TD, AHM, PAS TD, AHM, PAS CORE BIOCLIMATIC ENVELOPECORE BIOCLIMATIC ENVELOPE

Methods – Identify locations of a Methods – Identify locations of a target’s target’s suitable climate spacesuitable climate space

SUITABLE CLIMATE SPACE

Overlay-Intersection Overlay-Intersection Suitable Climate Suitable Climate

Space Space Persistent Climate Corridors Persistent Climate Corridors

Nephroma occultum (Cryptic Paw)

Bioclimatic EnvelopeBioclimatic Envelope

Describes a target’s Describes a target’s physiological tolerancesphysiological tolerances Defined by its current Defined by its current

distributiondistribution Environmental factorsEnvironmental factors

Mean annual temperature Mean annual temperature and preciptationand preciptation

Growing degree daysGrowing degree days ExcludesExcludes

Biotic interactionsBiotic interactions Ability to adapt Ability to adapt

Suitable Climate Space (SCS)Suitable Climate Space (SCS)

Area(s) of Area(s) of coincidence coincidence between the between the location(s) of location(s) of target-specific target-specific bioclimatic bioclimatic envelopes of all envelopes of all 4 timeslices4 timeslices

Persistent climate corridors (PCC)Persistent climate corridors (PCC)

Area(s) of coincidence of a Area(s) of coincidence of a target’s SCS and current target’s SCS and current distributiondistribution

Provide climate refuge in Provide climate refuge in the form of climate the form of climate connectivity or persistenceconnectivity or persistence Maintaining unique Maintaining unique

floristics of species floristics of species assemblagesassemblages

Engelmann Spruce-Sub-alpine Fir Wet Very Cold (ESSFwv)

Conservation target summaryConservation target summary

Of 206 conservation target groups:Of 206 conservation target groups: 23% (47/206) - SCS 13% (26/206) - PCC23% (47/206) - SCS 13% (26/206) - PCC

B.C. biogeoclimatic variants:B.C. biogeoclimatic variants: 16% (16/103) - SCS 9% (10/103) - PCC16% (16/103) - SCS 9% (10/103) - PCC

Terrestrial ecological units: Terrestrial ecological units: 27% (8/30) - SCS 20% (6/30) – PCC27% (8/30) - SCS 20% (6/30) – PCC

Listed plant species:Listed plant species: 32% (23/73) - SCS 10% (10/73) – PCC32% (23/73) - SCS 10% (10/73) – PCC

B.C. B.C. Biogeoclimatic Biogeoclimatic

Variants: Variants: Interior Cedar Hemlock Hazelton Moist

Cold

Current distribution: 5,343 km2

SCS: 3,677 km2 PCC: 203 km2

Representation: 3.8%

Terrestrial Terrestrial Ecological Unit: Ecological Unit:

North Pacific Interior

Lodgepole Pine-Douglas Fir

Woodland and Forest

Current distribution: 11,828 km2 SCS: 22,661 km2 PCC: 1,131 km2

Representation: 10%

Listed Plant SpeciesListed Plant Species

a.a. Malaxis paludosaMalaxis paludosa SCS: 178,348 kmSCS: 178,348 km22

2/2 occurrences are 2/2 occurrences are PCCsPCCs

b.b. Carex teneraCarex tenera SCS: 49,081 kmSCS: 49,081 km22

1/7 occurrences are 1/7 occurrences are PCCsPCCs

c.c. Juncus stygiusJuncus stygius SCS: 80,991 kmSCS: 80,991 km22

1/2 occurrences are 1/2 occurrences are PCCsPCCs

Areas of Areas of overlapping overlapping PCCs have PCCs have

a higher a higher conservation conservation

valuevalue

NB: TEU is terrestrial ecological unit

Application to conservation planningApplication to conservation planning Nature Conservancy of CanadaNature Conservancy of Canada

Marxan - reserve selection softwareMarxan - reserve selection software• Various outputs including wildlife, plants, aquatic Various outputs including wildlife, plants, aquatic

features, ecosystem services, natural features, ecosystem services, natural disturbancedisturbance

• Persistent climate corridors Persistent climate corridors Suitability Index – with and without parksSuitability Index – with and without parks

• Measures human impact i.e. density and Measures human impact i.e. density and proximity of roadsproximity of roads

• High impact (high cost) High impact (high cost) → Low score → Low → Low score → Low valuevalue

Marxan Comparison – Suitability Index

Average Marxan scores: Species: 100Species: 100 TEU: 53TEU: 53 Variants: 73Variants: 73 Multiple PCC: 82Multiple PCC: 82

ConclusionsConclusions

Large impacts for many plant species, Large impacts for many plant species, communities, and ecosystems in central B.C. communities, and ecosystems in central B.C. are expectedare expected

Persistent climate corridors - a conceptually Persistent climate corridors - a conceptually simple but powerful toolsimple but powerful tool Pre and post-processing stagesPre and post-processing stages

Help focus conservation prioritiesHelp focus conservation priorities

Thanks!Thanks! Dr. Phil Burton, SupervisorDr. Phil Burton, Supervisor Drs. Chris Johnson and Brian Menounos, Drs. Chris Johnson and Brian Menounos,

Committee Members Committee Members Dr. Sybille Haeussler, External Examiner Dr. Sybille Haeussler, External Examiner Pierre Iachetti, Nature Conservancy of CanadaPierre Iachetti, Nature Conservancy of Canada NSERC IPS, UNBC and Forest Investment NSERC IPS, UNBC and Forest Investment

Account’s Forest Science ProgramAccount’s Forest Science Program The Canadian Forest ServiceThe Canadian Forest Service Friends and fellow grad studentsFriends and fellow grad students

Ecoregional assessment processEcoregional assessment process

Conservation blueprints and portfoliosConservation blueprints and portfolios Multiple inputs and stakeholdersMultiple inputs and stakeholders Accomplish using MarxanAccomplish using Marxan Steps includeSteps include

Identify and set goals for conservation targetsIdentify and set goals for conservation targets Refine portfolios through expert review Refine portfolios through expert review

My focus: site selection and prioritizationMy focus: site selection and prioritization

UncertaintyUncertainty

Ubiquitous, many sourcesUbiquitous, many sources Error and sensitivity analysesError and sensitivity analyses Sources should be accounted for, SOME Sources should be accounted for, SOME

examples include:examples include: Source data e.g. sample sizeSource data e.g. sample size GCM and bioclimatic envelope modelling GCM and bioclimatic envelope modelling

(BEM) limitations e.g. BEM does not consider (BEM) limitations e.g. BEM does not consider biotic interactions, adaptation biotic interactions, adaptation

Limiting Climate VariablesLimiting Climate Variables

26

207220

1425

161

257

128

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

MAT toolow

MAT toohigh

TD toolow

TD toohigh

AHM toolow

AHM toohigh

PAS toolow

PAS toohigh

Limiting Variable

Frequency

Species response according to Species response according to habitat typehabitat type

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

-81 to -100

-31 to -80

-11 to -30

-1 to -10 0 to 10 11 to100

101 to500

501 +

Change in SCS from baseline to 2080s timeslice, % area’

Frequency

alpine, subalpine

conifer forests

grasslands

wetlands

ClimateBC/PP VariablesClimateBC/PP Variables MATMAT - mean annual temperature - mean annual temperature MWMTMWMT - mean warmest month temperature - mean warmest month temperature MCMTMCMT - mean coldest month temperature - mean coldest month temperature TDTD - temperature difference between MCMT and MWMT - temperature difference between MCMT and MWMT

(continentality) (continentality) MAPMAP - mean annual precipitation - mean annual precipitation MSPMSP - mean summer precipitation - mean summer precipitation AH:MAH:M - annual heat moisture index - annual heat moisture index SH:MSH:M - summer heat moisture index - summer heat moisture index DD<0DD<0 - degree days below 0C - degree days below 0C DD>5DD>5 - degree days above 5C - degree days above 5C DD5-100DD5-100 - Julian date on which DD>5 reaches 100 - Julian date on which DD>5 reaches 100 DD<18DD<18 - degree days below 18C - degree days below 18C DD>18DD>18 - degree days above 18C - degree days above 18C NFFDNFFD - number of frost-free days - number of frost-free days FFPFFP - frost-free period - frost-free period bFFPbFFP - beginning of the frost-free period (Julian date) - beginning of the frost-free period (Julian date) eFFPeFFP - end of the frost-free period (Julian date) - end of the frost-free period (Julian date) PASPAS - precipitation as snow - precipitation as snow EXTEXT - extreme minimum temperature - extreme minimum temperature