Lessons learned from Futures Studies:

towards a method for Web Science

Dominic DiFranzo, Benjamin Heitmann, Betty Purwandari

Motivation: Web Science for predictions?• Could we have predicted

Twitter?

• Goal of a systems level view of the Web:Understanding the possible futures of the Web

• Predictions could allow engineering and shaping a better Web

The science of predictions: Futures studies

• The Web = Technology + Social Element

• Predictions need to take both into account

• Futures studies takes models and methods from a broad range of fields: economics, sociology, geography, history, engineering, mathematics, psychology, technology, tourism, physics, biology, astronomy, theology

Objectives of Futures Studies

1. Examine possible, probable, preferable and “wild card” futures

2. Holistic/systems view of prediction domain

3. Challenges hidden assumptions behind future predictions.

4. Provide blue print to connect extrapolated and normative research

Source: Futures studies article on Wikipedia

“Images of the future”

• Foundational method:

• How a society views its future, affects the future direction of that society.

• Expectations of the future, relate to past trends.

• Analysing “future images” allows making better predictions.

Science Fiction

• Snowcrash: Metaverse (Second Life)

• Rainbows End: Augmented reality(sixth sense)

• Down and Out in Magical Kingdom: Wuffie (ebay feedback)

Trends• Wired cover story: The Long

Boom, a history of the future(1997)

• 40 years of growth from 1980 to 2020

• tech waves: computers, telecom, biotech, nanotech, alt energy

• optimistic re growth of all world economies

• Superstruct game: prediction game based on Web 2.0 interaction

Methodologies

• quantitative (extrapolation):

• trend analysis (times series analysis)

• qualitative:

• Scenario planning

• Backcasting

• more on our wiki page

Summary: How to apply futures studies to Web Science

• Studying the current Web is not enough, we need prediction methodologies to help us build a better web.

• New method for Web Science: combine normative and extrapolating methods

• emphasise plurality of relevant futures (you can learn more from multiple futures)