Lattice Energy LLC - Excessive reliance on renewable energy sources can threaten reliability of electricity grids - April 19 2017

April 19, 2017 Lattice Energy LLC, Copyright 2017 All rights reserved 1

Contact: 1-312-861-0115 Chicago, Illinois USA

[email protected]

Lewis Larsen

President and CEO

April 19, 2017


Lattice Energy LLCCommercializing LENRs as safe source of radiation-free nuclear energy

Week of January 24, 2017 - that was when the

lights nearly went out in Germany because

bad weather slashed wind & solar power

Last available reserve fossil power plant

was brought online to prevent a catastrophic power blackout


Credit: Getty images

Ongoing climate change disrupts normal weather patterns

If you believe that wind and solar can someday 100% replace

sources of baseload and dispatchable power generation

then think again, because they simply can’t --- ever

Extended periods of cloudy skies can be correlated with low or no wind



✓ Weather issues in Germany during Dec. 2016 and Jan. 2017 have

revealed very serious weaknesses in long-term Energiewende plan

✓ For the foreseeable future, adequate baseload and dispatchable

power generation capacity will be required to insure 99+ % grid

availability and robust stability despite episodic weather problems

✓ 100% renewable energy sources + enormous grid storage capacity

would be too expensive and cause unreliability; not a future solution

✓ Need to determine the optimal mix of wind & solar, baseload and

dispatchable power generation capacity, and grid electrical storage

capacity that results in lowest-possible overall system cost consistent

with reliable grids having 99+% uptime and great long-term stability

✓ Radiation-free ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs) could

potentially provide CO2-free future distributed alternative power

generation technology vs. more fission and/or fossil fueled plants

Nuclear and/or fossil power are essential for energy security

Baseload and dispatchable power plants insure reliable operation of grids

Excessive % of intermittent renewable energy sources can reduce grid reliability


Energiewende is German word for “energy transition”

Shift German energy system from fossil fuels and fission to renewables

All coal-fired & fission power plants will close by 2040; 60% renewables by 2050

https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/

✓ Ambitious program aims to shift into renewable

energy sources in Germany’s electricity sector

✓ Heavy emphasis on solar photovoltaic (PV) and

wind power for renewable energy technologies

✓ Support for program was legislated back in 2010

✓ After 2011 disaster with Fukushima reactors in

Japan, German government eliminated fission as

bridging technology in path to 80+% renewables

✓ Shut-down 9 remaining fission reactors by 2022;

then phase-out all coal powered plants by 2040

✓ Ultimate goal is 60% of electricity production via

renewables by 2050 and, in parallel, reduce total

greenhouse gas emissions from electricity sector

by 80 - 95% relative to earlier levels back in 1990

https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/


March 2, 2016: Lattice published PowerPoint shown below

Wind & solar variability stops 100% replacement of fossil and/or nuclear

https://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-climate-change-can-reduce-wind-and-solar-power-output-also-need-dispatchable-generation-march-2-2016

https://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-climate-change-can-reduce-wind-and-solar-power-output-also-need-dispatchable-generation-march-2-2016


Dec. 2016: bad weather slashed German renewable power

Two large shortfalls in wind & solar generation lasted 50 and 100 hours

Deficit covered by nuclear baseload and fossil-fueled dispatchable power sources

Re

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rtfall

“Such weather events can

persist for several days. The

first lull lasted about 100 hours,

the second about 50 hours.”

Two large shortfalls in renewables power generation occurred in just one month

~65

GW~60

GW


“The Great Smog of 1952. Sorry, 2017”

Credit: Toby Melville/Reuters

Jan. 2017: days of fog and no wind caused London smog

Weather events like this reduce both solar and wind power generation

“A look at last week’s pollution provides some

clues – other factors were involved in London’s

atmospheric woes this winter. One couldn’t be

more simple: the weather. ‘Meteorological

conditions have been stagnant for several weeks,’

said Martyn Chipperfield, professor of

atmospheric chemistry at Leeds University. ‘There

has been a stable, blocking anticyclone resting

over Britain and that has trapped air over the

country. There has been nothing to blow the

pollution away. Worse, any winds that we have had

have come from the south east, from Europe

where the air is already polluted. Our prevailing

winds usually blow in from the Atlantic bringing in

fairly fresh air. Instead, all we have had is the odd

puff of already polluted air’.”

The Guardian on January 29, 2017

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/29/pollution-air-quality-london-environment

London’s smog and

fog was part of same

weather system that

slashed Germany’s

wind & solar power

generation during the

week of Jan. 24, 2017


Jan. 24 Jan. 25

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/29/pollution-air-quality-london-environment


Week of Jan. 16 - 22, 2017: Europe was becalmed for 7 days “On 16th January the wind died completely across the UK and much of Europe”

http://euanmearns.com/uk-grid-january-2017-and-the-perfect-storm/

“UK grid January 2017 and The Perfect Storm”By Euan Mearns in Energy Matters on March 13, 2017

“Figure 1. UK wind generation, January 2017. On the 16 of January the

wind died completely for a week.”

“Despite having 25 GW of wind and solar installed (50% of

UK peak demand), these provided only 4% of UK supply

during the windless week commencing 16th January 2017.”



Jan. 2017: dispatchable power saved the day for the U.K.“UK can no longer afford to see more of its large thermal stations close”


“UK grid January 2017 and The Perfect Storm”By Euan Mearns in Energy Matters on March 13, 2017

“Concern about the integrity of the UK grid is borne out of the

closure of 17.7 GW of coal fired power between 2004 and 2016

and its replacement with 14.4 GW of wind and 10.7 GW of solar.

But the UK still has about 49 GW of dispatchable capacity left –

nuclear, ccgt, coal, biomass, and hydro – that was enough to see

us comfortably through January 2017.”

“One lesson from this is that the UK carried very large surplus

generating capacity before the closures began and there was no

doubt a cost associated with that. Since the closures, spare

capacity is now thin and we got through January with comfort

only because all CCGT and coal stations were operational which

is not always the case … It seems to be clear that the UK can no

longer afford to see more of its large thermal stations close.”



Jan. 24, 2017: German grid struggled with demand & stability

Same type of weather problems for renewables occurred again in January

Rheinische Post: last reserve power plant was brought online to avert a blackout

Power Generation and Demand, Germany January 15 - 31, 2017

~ 70 GW

shortfall on

January 24 R

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January 24

http://www.rp-online.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/deutsches-stromnetz-schrammt-am-blackout-vorbei-aid-1.6636489

Original main title of news story: “Deutsches Stromnetz schrammt am Blackout vorbei”

Composite translation of text: “German electricity network barely avoids a blackout”

Note: when this screenshot was taken, online

app was malfunctioning in that calendar dates

shown on lower x-axis do not display properly



Period of little sun & wind was from mid-Jan to mid-Feb

~ 50 GW shortfall of renewables vs. total demand lasted about a month

Cost of battery storage to cover > 50 GW shortfall for 1 month would be very high

Power Generation and Demand, Germany January 2 - February 25, 2017

~ 50 GW

shortfall

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100% renewable energy sources + enormous grid storage capacity would be far too expensive and cause unreliability; not really a viable future solution

January 24


Feb. 10, 2017: Lattice published PowerPoint shown below

Weather events in Dec. 2016 revealed serious weakness in Energiewende

http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-adequate-reasonably-priced-dispatchable-power-generation-critical-to-national-energy-security-feb-10-2017

http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-adequate-reasonably-priced-dispatchable-power-generation-critical-to-national-energy-security-feb-10-2017


Feb. 27, 2017: RP story revealed existence of near-blackout

Rheinische Post news: “… renewables could not even offer five percent”

Lights nearly went out in Germany when bad weather slashed solar & wind power


“Too little wind and sun - German electricity network barely avoids a blackout” By C. Longin and M. Plück in Rheinische Post on February 27, 2017

According to Michael Vassiliadis, head of IG Bergbauchemie

Energie, the situation on 24 January was critical: on that day,

energy companies and network operators could only have been

able to maintain the electricity supply with great difficulty, the

trade unionist told journalists at an event in Haltern am

See. Despite the problems, the Germans demanded more than

80 gigawatts of power, as on other days. "The renewables could

not even offer five percent," said Vassiliadis.

Note: Michael Vassiliadis is Chairman of Industriegewerkschaft Bergbau,

Chemie, Energie - IG BCE (large German trade union HQ in Hannover)

Translation of original German to English by Google; text below is directly quoted from news article



Feb. 27, 2017: RP story revealed existence of near-blackout

No blackout occurred because FNA “took the last reserve power plant”


“Too little wind and sun - German electricity network barely avoids a blackout” By C. Longin and M. Plück in Rheinische Post on February 27, 2017

Also, importing electricity was not an option. At that time, France

had enormous difficulties in meeting the needs of the cold wave

itself. Because many French heat with electricity. As early as the

middle of January, the government had launched an anti-cold plan in

Paris and used crises in the affected prefectures. A blackout

escaped the French only because the inspection of several fission

reactors was postponed. France had enough to do with herself.

According to Vassiliadis, the fact that a blackout did not take place

there was only because the German energy suppliers "also took the

last reserve power plant". "Coal, gas and nuclear power kept the

country almost in the first place under the electric current." On

request, the Federal Network Agency [FNA] did not comment on the

network overload.

Translation of original German to English by Google; text below is directly quoted from news article



“DEEP DECARBONIZATION OF THE ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR INSIGHTS FROM RECENT LITERATURE”

JESSE D. JENKINS AND SAMUEL THERNSTROM MARCH 2017

March 2017: Jenkins & Thernstrom published review paper

“Low-Carbon dispatchable baseload resources are indispensable”

http://innovationreform.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/EIRP-Deep-Decarb-Lit-Review-Jenkins-Thernstrom-March-2017.pdf

Quoting from their conclusions; this is a significant must-read paper:

“There is strong agreement in the recent literature that deep

decarbonization --- reaching zero or near-zero CO2 emissions --- is best

achieved by harnessing a diverse portfolio of low-Carbon resources.”

“In particular, low-Carbon dispatchable baseload resources such as

nuclear, biomass, hydropower, or CCS, are an indispensable part of any

least-cost pathway to deep decarbonization. Recent literature indicates

that removing this dispatchable base from the generation portfolio,

relying instead on variable renewable energy resources such as wind

and solar, would significantly increase the cost and technical challenge

of decarbonizing power systems.”

“In addition, reaching zero emissions requires a significantly different

capacity mix than achieving comparatively more modest goals.”

http://innovationreform.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/EIRP-Deep-Decarb-Lit-Review-Jenkins-Thernstrom-March-2017.pdf


“ A BRAVE NEW WORLD: DEEP DECARBONIZATION OF ELECTRICITY GRIDS” SPECIAL EDITION: ANNUAL ENERGY PAPER

October 19, 2015

Oct. 2015: J.P. Morgan shows “balanced” Energiewende plan

Alter plan to: “nuclear to meet 35% of demand [by reopening] idle plants”

https://www.jpmorgan.com/jpmpdf/1320691236591.pdf

Quoting text and chart directly from page #9 of J.P. Morgan paper:

“Is there a cheaper way to do it? A balanced system, with nuclear power”

“Nuclear Power. We analyze a balanced system as well: Germany maintains the

wind, solar, hydro and biomass it now has; relies on nuclear to meet 35% of demand

by turning back on some of its idle plants; and uses a 50/50 natural gas/coal mix for

the remainder. Balanced results are shown in the last row, along with no-storage and

storage scenarios for Energiewende, and the current system … The balanced system

we analyzed achieves cost and CO2 reductions at a much lower cost per metric ton

than Energiewende … but only if EIA nuclear cost projections are accurate.”

https://www.jpmorgan.com/jpmpdf/1320691236591.pdf


Baseload and dispatchable generation will always be needed

Nuclear power could be key component in long-term future of energy

✓ Given the inherent variability in power output of renewable CO2-free energy

sources, adequate amounts of baseload and dispatchable power generation

capacity are an unavoidable necessity and key asset for maintaining modern

high-availability electricity grids that provide customers with 99+ % uptime. This

key requirement would continue to exist even if --- sometime in the near future ---

distributed wind and/or solar renewables became substantially less expensivesources than baseload nuclear fission or dispatchable fossil-fueled power plants

✓ From a societal risk management perspective, maintaining adequate baseload

and dispatchable generation capacity would be a cost-effective investment that

could also help prevent an unimaginable economic catastrophe in unlikely event

of a rare “Black Swan” volcanic dust eruption that could sharply reduce both

sunlight and wind speeds on Earth’s surface for months or even several years

✓ Having adequate baseload and dispatchable generation capacity is thus an

invaluable asset in maintaining 99+% reliable electricity grids and national

energy security. It would also be prudent to reduce future CO2 emissions from

power generation. This will eventually happen anyway because at current rates

of consumption, BP estimates that fossil fuels will be exhausted in < 114 years

✓ Nuclear plants can provide baseload and dispatchable power and do not emit

CO2. Like it or not, major expansion of nuclear power generation is probably

inevitable and could be important component in long-term future of power grids


Reliable electric grids require baseload & dispatchable power

Need some % of grid power generation not subject to vagaries of Nature

Grids with 100% renewables not reliable - even with grid-scale flow batteries

✓ Wind and solar power generation technologies, while decreasing greatly in cost,

are inherently intermittent sources of thermal and/or electrical power. Local wind

speeds and intensity of sunlight can vary quite dramatically intra-day or from week

to week. Importantly, presently ongoing climate change, whatever its cause may

be, is making future weather patterns vastly more variable than before, not less

✓ Many naively believe that massive deployment of giant grid-scale flow batteries

could bridge supply-demand gap when weather reduces electricity produced by

renewable energy sources. Well, that strategy might work for a few hours or a day,

but certainly not for days, weeks, or even months. Installing enough grid storage

capacity to insure electricity demand could be fully supplied for long time periods

with little curtailment would be incredibly expensive and grossly uneconomic vs.

less costly alternative grids that also utilize some % of nuclear and/or fossil power

✓ What would be desirable is new type of energy-dense, green power generation

technology that is CO2-free, dispatchable, very scalable from kilowatts to megawatt

-scale baseload systems, and utilizes manufacturing technologies that can exploit

the experience curve effect to further reduce price of electricity for consumers

✓ LENR technology being developed by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota, Nissan,

and Lattice Energy could provide new alternative in future power generation mix


Body politics in Germany and Japan reject fission power

What if there was ‘green’ type of nuclear power vastly safer than fission?


Revolutionary ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs)

Radiation-free LENRs transmute stable elements to other stable elements


Image credit: co-author Domenico Pacifici

From: “Nanoscale plasmonic interferometers for multispectral, high-throughput biochemical sensing”J. Feng et al., Nano Letters pp. 602 - 609 (2012)

Laura 13

Revolutionary ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs)

Radiation-free LENRs transmute stable elements to other stable elements

Fission and fusion Safe green LENRsEvolution of nuclear technology



Entangled particles - Credit: Getty Images

LENRs are only energy technology on foreseeable horizon that

could potentially enable future deep decarbonization of

both electric power generation and transportation

sectors at reasonable total economic $ cost

Future deep decarbonization of both the

electric power generation and transportation sectors

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toyota, and Nissan Motors

now conducting R&D programs and developing LENRs

to someday replace the internal combustion engine



Comparison of LENRs to fission and fusionFission, fusion, and LENRs all involve controlled release of nuclear binding energy

(heat) for power generation: no CO2 emissions; scale of energy release is MeVs (nuclear regime) > 1,000,000x energy density of chemical energy power sources

Heavy-element fission: involves shattering heavy nuclei to release stored nuclear binding

energy; requires massive shielding and containment structures to handle radiation; major

radioactive waste clean-up issues and costs; limited sources of fuel: today, almost entirely

Uranium; Thorium-based fuel cycles now under development; heavy element U-235 (fissile

isotope fuel) + neutrons complex array of lower-mass fission products (some are very

long-lived radioisotopes) + energetic gamma radiation + energetic neutron radiation + heat

Fusion of light nuclei: involves smashing light nuclei together to release stored nuclear

binding energy; present multi-billion $ development efforts (e.g., ITER, NIF, other Tokamaks)

focusing mainly on D+T fusion reaction; requires massive shielding/containment structures

to handle 14 MeV neutron radiation; minor radioactive waste clean-up $ costs vs. fission

Two key sources of fuel: Deuterium and Tritium (both are heavy isotopes of Hydrogen)

Most likely to be developed commercial fusion reaction involves the following:

D + T He-4 (helium) + neutron + heat (total energy yield 17.6 MeV; ~14.1 MeV in neutron)

distinguishing feature is neutron production

via electroweak reaction; neutron capture on fuel + gamma conversion to IR + decays [β - , α]

releases nuclear binding energy; early-stage technology; no emission of energetic neutron

or gamma radiation and no long-lived radioactive waste products; LENR systems would not

require massive, expensive radiation shielding or containment structures much lower $$$

cost; many possible fuels --- any element/isotope that can capture LENR neutrons; involves

neutron-catalyzed transmutation of fuels into heavier stable elements; process creates heat

Ultralow energy neutron reactions (LENRs):

Fusion of light nuclei:

Heavy element fission:


Key conclusion of theoretical paper published in Pramana

Journal is peer-reviewed publication of Indian Academy of Sciences

“A primer for electro-weak induced low energy nuclear reactions”

“The analysis presented in this paper leads us to

conclude that realistic possibilities exist for designing

LENR devices capable of producing ‘green energy’, that

is, production of excess heat at low cost without lethal

nuclear waste, dangerous γ-rays or unwanted neutrons.

The necessary tools and the essential theoretical know-

how to manufacture such devices appear to be well

within the reach of the technology available now.

Vigorous efforts must now be made to develop such

devices whose functionality requires all three

interactions of the Standard Model acting in concert.”


Publications about the Widom-Larsen theory of LENRsIndex provides comprehensive guide to available online information

“Ultra low momentum neutron catalyzed nuclear reactions on metallic

hydride surfaces”

A. Widom and L. Larsen (author’s copy)

European Physical Journal C - Particles and Fields 46 pp. 107 - 112 (2006)

http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/widom-and-larsen-ulm-neutron-

catalyzed-lenrs-on-metallic-hydride-surfacesepjc-march-2006

“A primer for electro-weak induced low energy nuclear reactions”

Y. Srivastava, A. Widom, and L. Larsen (author’s copy)

Pramana - Journal of Physics 75 pp. 617 - 637 (2010)

http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/srivastava-widom-and-larsenprimer-for-

electroweak-induced-low-energy-nuclear-reactionspramana-oct-2010

“Theoretical Standard Model rates of proton to neutron conversions near

metallic hydride surfaces”

A. Widom and L. Larsen

Cornell physics preprint arXiv:nucl-th/0608059v2 12 pages (2007)

http://arxiv.org/pdf/nucl-th/0608059v2.pdf

“Index to key concepts and documents” all hyperlinks in document are live

v. #21 updated and revised through Sept. 7, 2015 L. Larsen, Lattice Energy LLC, May 28, 2013 [133 slides] download is enabled

http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-hyperlinked-index-to-

documents-re-widomlarsen-theory-and-lenrs-september-7-2015

http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/widom-and-larsen-ulm-neutron-catalyzed-lenrs-on-metallic-hydride-surfacesepjc-march-2006

http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/srivastava-widom-and-larsenprimer-for-electroweak-induced-low-energy-nuclear-reactionspramana-oct-2010

http://arxiv.org/pdf/nucl-th/0608059v2.pdf

http://www.slideshare.net/lewisglarsen/lattice-energy-llc-hyperlinked-index-to-documents-re-widomlarsen-theory-and-lenrs-september-7-2015


Recent books about LENRs and the Widom-Larsen theory

Three volumes in series titled “Explorations in Nuclear Research”

Provides overview of entire field at level of Scientific American article

“Fusion Fiasco” (Volume 2)

Steven B. Krivit

Pacific Oaks Press, San Rafael, CA, November 11, 2016 (531 pages)

Paperback US$16.00; hardcover US$48.00; Kindle US$3.99

“Lost History” (Volume 3)

Steven B. Krivit

Pacific Oaks Press, San Rafael, CA, November 11, 2016 (380 pages)


PowerPoint synopsis of book with additional commentary:

https://www.amazon.com/dp/0996886419


“Hacking the Atom” (Volume 1)

Steven B. Krivit

Pacific Oaks Press, San Rafael, CA, September 11, 2016 (484 pages)



http://tinyurl.com/z6fsbn2




http://tinyurl.com/z6fsbn2

Technology

Lattice Energy LLC - Excessive reliance on renewable energy sources can threaten reliability of electricity grids - April 19 2017