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Lessons
▪ Shift from hardware to software ▪ None of the minicomputer makers became a significant factor in the desktop personal computer market
▪ The PC was disruptive technology ▪ The minicomputer users were not buying PCs – yet ▪ This created a new set of entrants: Apple, Tandy, Commodore, and IBM
Lessons
▪ In the late 1980s the performance of PCs met the needs of minicomputer users
▪ This severely wounded minicomputer makers – many of them failed
▪ At same time IBM succeeded in entering the PC market – how?
▪ It created an autonomous organization in Florida – far away from it’s New York headquarters
▪ They created the PC market ▪ Then headquarters took control and lost control to the Clones
Lessons
▪ Xerox management did not enter the computer market
▪ PARC members tried to show management – but they “just didn’t get it”
▪ Xerox is in the copying documents business – their customers were not asking for computer systems
▪ Visionary Computers did not fit their resources, processes and values
– RPV theory
Lessons
▪ Doug Englebart envisioned the future of computers
▪ Xerox PARC built the visionary computer – but did not pursue it
▪ Early enthusiast like Ed Roberts of MITS and others did not get rich of computers and software
▪ Visionaries like Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston invented VisiCalc – did not make much money
Lessons
▪ Bill Gates saw the potential of software and started Microsoft
▪ Took the opportunity with MITS ▪ Focused on software ▪ Gary Kildall invented the C/PM system but
Microsoft bought similar OS and succeeded ▪ Wrote software for Apple and later Macintosh ▪ You don’t have to have superior products to win ▪ You don’t have to invent technology – just use it
Lessons
▪ Apple and Steve Jobs saw the potential of computers and then GUIs
▪ GUI were slow to appear ▪ Infrastructure product - needs software and users ▪ Stretched the hardware at the time ▪ Disruptive with new market – consumers ▪ Apple Lisa failed – lacking in performance ▪ The Macintosh started slowly and found some
niche market in Desktop Publishing and schools
Lessons
▪ Windows 95 was marketed to the consumer ▪ First mass market of Operating Systems
– The Internet helped
▪ Today we have three major PC Operating Systems
– Linux (Unix based) – MacOS (Unix based) – Windows
▪ Biggest OS today are iOS and Android
PC Evolution
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Hardware era PC, Mac
Software OS era Windows, Office, MacOS
Internet Hardware Connects
IBM MicrosoftApple
2010
Software web era Web 2.0, Social
2015
Internet of things
2020
Apple
SmartphoneWearable
StartupsFacebook
Amazon
Miniature Computers
Small devices that have computer power Wireless capabilities Dedicated devices Enough computer power for limited functionality
Examples RFID UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles Internet of things Siftables
The Future of the PC
How long will the Hard Disk Drive last? Solid state memory is getting bigger Terabit Flash Memory Computer architecture will change More and more devices are using Flash memory Driving prices down
The Network is the Computer
The Internet cloud
More programs and data is stored on network servers
The Personal Computer becomes one of the form factors to access the network
Examples Amazon API Google Apps Facework Platform API
Move to cloud-core
What about Moore’s Law?
Amazon has over 2.24 million machines in some 87 data centers
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mainframes Mini Computers PC Clients
Time-sharing
Servers
Laptops
Serverrrooms
Smartphones
TabletsMusic
players
Consumer Products
Data centers
Mobile phones
Convergence
Divergence
DecentralisationCentralisation
Mobility
eReadersWearables
IoT
New Business Models
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mainframes Mini Computers PC Clients
Time-sharing
Servers
Laptops
Serverrrooms
Smartphones
TabletsMusic
players
Consumer Products
Data centers
Mobile phones
Convergence
Divergence
DecentralisationCentralisation
Mobility
eReadersWearables
IoT
New Business Models
What next?
Future of PCCloud Computing and home Serves
Everything will be connected: computer, TV, Phone, etc.
Simpler specialised operating systems
Cloud computing
Wireless
Ubiquitous network access
Computers will be smaller and integrated into things
New input methods
Better interfaces
Big Brian, Small Brain
Better friction of devices
What do people do with computes - desktop, laptop, tablet, smartphone - today?
Communication - talk, messages Reading Take/View Photos Watch Movies Shopping Browse the Internet Read news Write documents, blogs Financial transactions Learning
The iPad Effect
Multi-touch input
Software Platform – apps
Real OS
The computer just became a consumer device
The iPhone Effect
The iPad Effect
Tablets are disrupting the netbook/laptop/PC marketReplacing eReadersKilling papers and magazines - or saving them?Change in life styleIs this new market disruption also?
What happens when you can access the internet with a $100 device?