LECTURE L13THE POWER OF SOFTWARE

Early ComputersSoftware was ignored as the focus was on hardware

Women in math were hired to program

Grace Hopper Jean Jennings Betty Snyder

The Software Crisis

Software

As computers became more powerful and more common, a new problem surfaced: software

Development of computers was a hardware problem

Software or programs did not get the same attention

Operating systems were primitive and programming was done at a very low level

The Software Crisis

“[The major cause of the software crisis is] that the machines have become several orders of magnitude more powerful!” -Edsger Dijkstra, The Humble Programmer

Source:  Software_crisis

Software Engineering was not a established field

Became known as The Software Crisis

Q1What solved the software crisis?

Operating Systems

IBM developed OS/360 for System 360

DEC developed VMS for VAX

Unix was grew out individual efforts as response to Multix

System V, BSD, Solaris

Minix was an academic effort, Linux grew out of frustration with Minix licence

Programming Languages

FORTRANMathematical Formula Translation System Released in 1957

Higher level language that became breakthrough in writing software

Created by John Backus of IBM

Came on 2.000 punched cards Other languages followed: COBOL, Algol

May 25, 1961

Status:

Mainframe era, mini computer early days

Transistor era, integrated circuits just invented

Programming languages new

Q2What role did the US space program have on computer innovation?

“The space program badly needed the things the integrated circuit could

provide.” - Jack St. Clair Kilby

Semiconductor Industry is Born

Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore founded Intel Semiconductor company

Initial focus was on memory chips

There was still enormous potential market for calculations

The vision of Charles Babbage was still not realised but the mainframe market met the needs of governments and large organisations

The MicroprocessorIntel introduced the first microprocessor 4004 in 1971

8008 in 1972, 8080 in 1974 and 8088 in 1979

The beginning of the PC

The Microprocessor

Intel was really reluctant to go into the microchip business

No market existed No demand at the time

Intel created 4004 for another company They would not market chips, but built them when ordered

Q3

What was the first product in the market after the introduction of computer chips?

HINT: It disrupted a device that was invented in1625

The Calculator

The Calculator

Advances in technology introduced the desktop calculator

The market grew fast With advances, the calculators became more powerful and smaller

Pocket calculators Became widespread in the 70s

Replaced the slide rule after 374 years

Calculator Wars

Many companies start to make Calculators Casio, Sharp, Canon, HP, MITS and more

In Europe, Aristo, Denner & Pape, a slide rule manufacturer since 1872, also entered the market in 1972

Price dropped fast: $400 in 1972, $200, $100 and $50 in 1974

Companies like MITS need to find new ways of revenues

Think about this!

All mini-computer companies hadwhat it would take to go into smallscale products – they even hadpeople proposing the idea, but theydid not!

The Personal Computer

The Personal Computer

MITS marketed Altair in 1975 Came with Intel 8080

Users needed to assemble the machine themselves No keyboard, no screen, no printer 256 byte of RAM, programmed with switches

Included BASIC interpreter from Microsoft Written by Bill Gates and Paul Allen Cost of $397 appealed to computer enthusiasts

Microsoft is BornBill Gates and Paul Allen

Wrote a BASIC interpreter for the Altair

Founded a company they called Micro-Soft

Enter Apple

Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak

Show the Apple I in the Palo Alto

Homebrew Computer Club in 1976

Apple II was marketed 1977 and became a huge success - “Apple growth”

Hewlett-Packard had turn Wozniak down – no market

“The Personal Computer will fall flat on its face in business.” - Ken Olsen

Computer CompaniesExisting computer companies were not interested in PCs

DEC, HP, IBM, and Control Data did not see a business model HP rejected a proposal from Steve Wozniak DEC rejected a proposal from David Ahl

Support for machines like this was considered impossible

Consequence: The development of the PC had to begin with hobbyists

Think About This!

The Liquid Network

The Software IndustryFirst applications were non-serious

Soon business applications started to emerge

VisiCalc was the “killer-app” 20% of computer sales was due to this program

Other business apps appeared: Ledgers, payrolls, inventory, etc.

Disruptive technology

Killer Apps

Dan Bricklin and Bob Frankston Created VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet The spreadsheet created a new market

People bought the hardware to run the software

Q4IBM successfully entered the PC market – according to RPV theory this would be difficult. How did they do this?

IBM PC

IBM decided to enter the PC revolution

The company was loosing market share, competition was growing

Project “Chess”Bill Lowe was given one year to create a Personal Computer – “Acorn”

Lowe and his team – “Dirty Dozen”, went to work in Boca Raton, FL

Looked for parts outside of the company

The War of the OS

IBM needed an Operating System

Most popular system was Digital Research CP/M, created by Gary Kildall

Microsoft was providing programming languagesand suggested that IBM make a deal with DR

The Birth of the Microsoft DOSRobert X. Cringely PBS documentary

The War of the OS

IBM decided on PC-DOS from Microsoft which bought the OS from another company

Negotiated revenue sharing with IBM In the 80s, DOS had 90% of the OS market

PC-DOS

Small system Came on a floppy

IBM PCThe IBM PC was introduced 12. August 1981 in New York

4.7 MHz Intel 8088, 16 kb RAM,

DOS 1.0 for $1.565

Enter the Clones

Enter the Clones

IBM released all the specification of the machine - Open system

This allowed new entrants to create IBM compatible machines Compac was one of them

Enter the ClonesIBM controlled the market for a few years

They rationalised their product lines - deliberately restricted performance of lower-priced models in order to prevent them from cannibalising higher-priced models

The Compac passed them in 1986 with the Intel 386 machines

The PC market took off

IBM started to loose market share

PC Compatible Machines RuledEarly 80s IBM PC became the standard hardware

MS-DOS became the industry standard OS

Command Line Interface – CLI Text User Interfaces – TUI

Key Trend

Focus in on hardware, thesoftware is good-enough

Adoption Life Cycle

Still in the early stages – technology is the focus

The Demo in 1968

“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” - Alan Key

The Demo1968

The Demo in 1968Doug Engelbart at the Augmentation Research Centre in Melno Park

Demonstrated the future of computing

Features

A pointing device – the Mouse Hypertext, graphical user interface

Dynamic file linking

Shared-screen collaboration involving two persons at different sites communicating over a network with audio and video interface

Xerox Parc

Xerox Parc

Alto Computer 1972

Xerox created a lab in 1970

Palo Alto Research Park – PARC

PARC was a place for visionaries

The Alto computer system had Graphical User Interface – GUI and a mouse as an input

Desktop metaphor with Files and folders

Then Steve came on a visit

Graphical User Interfaces – GUISteve Jobs visited Xerox PARC 1979 Negotiated at deal with Xerox

They showed him: Object Oriented ProgrammingComputer networksGraphical User Interface

Apple started to work on this vision The Pirate Years

RPV TheoryXerox had just built theOS of the future but theydid nothing with it

Graphical User Interfaces – GUIDesktop metaphor

Point,   Click, Drag

Files,  foldersIcons

Windows,  scroll  bars

Menus

Graphical  fonts Clipboard,  cut  and  paste,  undo

Point,  activate,  select

Apple Lisa

First commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995Motorola 68000 CPU at a 5 MHz clock rate and had 1MB RAM

Featured cooperative (non-preemptive) multi-tasking and virtual memory

Q5

Why did the Lisa fail?

Apple LisaFirst commercial computer with a GUI Introduced in January 1983 Cost $9.995

Impact: Business failure Too expensive Too slow

Adjacent Possible

Technology wasn’t there yet

Macintosh

In 1984, Apple launched Macintosh Cost $1.995

Graphical User Interface

This set the standard for Operating Systems

Specification: 128 KB of RAM Screen was a 9-inch, 512x342 pixel monochrome display

Macintosh

Acceptance was slow The Mac was underpowered The GUI required memory and power

Writing Software was difficult

Gained popularity in education and with graphical designers – desktop publishers

Not so popular in the traditional business sector Microsoft provided applications (office apps)

Others Join the GameMicrosoft launched Windows 1.01 in 1985

Gates and Microsoft believed Graphical User Interfaces were the future

Regarded Front-end to DOS

Other players IBM TopView, DR GEM

Impact Software companies ignored Windows The business sector was not ready

DOS was in CrisisBy 1985 Microsoft had released DOS 3

But frustration increased

Q6

What were customers looking for?

DOS was in CrisisSingle task system – you can only run one program at the time

The 640 KB memory barrier TSR – Terminate and Stay Resident became popular but was causing problems

Users were looking for multitasking

Run more than one program at a time

More advanced operating system was needed

Windows 3.0Windows finally became usable Released May 1990

Better use of memory Multitasking Used the 286 and 386 hardware better Support for CD-ROM Solitaire

Impact: First GUI used by the PC market The start of end of DOS, finally

Windows 95

KEY TREND

Computers become consumer devices

Windows 95

Microsoft turned to consumers Windows 95 was targeted at the consumer market Support for the Internet Internet Explorer Friendlier user interfaces

Impact Released with great fanfare Came to dominate the OS market The OS become more important than the hardware

Operating System for Consumers

Operating Systems Today

Ubuntu

Mac  OS  X  

Windows

More choices, less important

Android

Think about this!Computers become commoditised – brands are not soimportant anymore

Q7

What is the future of Personal Computers?

PC Evolution

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Hardware  era  PC,  Mac

Software  OS  era  Windows,  Office,  MacOS

Internet  Hardware  Connects

IBM  PC Microsoft

Apple

2010

Software  web  era  Web  2.0,  Social

2015

Internet  of  things

2020

AppleGoogle

SmartphoneWearable

Startups

20 petaflops, or a quadrillion calculations per second

Miniature Computers

Small devices that have computer power Wireless capabilities Dedicated devices Enough computer power for limited functionality

Examples RFID UAV – Unmanned Arial Vehicles Internet of things Siftables

Ted video

David Merrill demos Stiftables

The Future of the PC

How long will the Hard Disk Drive last? Solid state memory is getting bigger Terabit Flash Memory Computer architecture will change More and more devices are using Flash memory Driving prices down

Tablets

Wearables, flyable, drivable, scannable…

The Network is the Computer

The Internet cloud

More programs and data is stored on network servers

The Personal Computer becomes one of the form factors to access the network

Examples Amazon API Google Apps Facework Platform API

Tom Watson was wrong – there is not room for five computers.It’s only one

What about Moore’s Law?

Shift to multicore started in2005 – new dimension

Move to cloud-core

What about Moore’s Law?

Amazon has over 2.24 million machines in some 87 data centers

$1,279-per-hour, 30,000-core cluster built on Amazon EC2 cloud

What about Moore’s Law?

How will we interact with computers in the future?

Assume that the desktop metaphor with mouse and desktop and files – is dead

MISSION:FIND OUT BEFORE NEXT CLASS